Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291436
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1036 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the area on Sunday. High
pressure will then rebuild over the region on Monday and remain in
place through Wednesday. On Thursday, low pressure located over
the western Great Lakes will drift northeast into Canada and will
extend a cold front across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clouds have filled in this morning as mid-level moisture streams
northwest from Bonnie and interacts with the shortwave lifting
through the western Great Lakes. Raised cloud cover for most areas
through the morning with more breaks developing in the western
counties this afternoon. Given the higher cloud cover, adjusted
highs down in a couple locations with temperatures peaking in the
mid 80s.

Timing precipitation chances today continues to be the primary
challenge with the forecast. Expecting the deeper moisture to be
focused across the east this afternoon. The combination of lake
breezes with the approaching shortwave and daytime heating should
interact to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
east this afternoon and increased pops closer to 50 percent.

Original Discussion...
A weak cold front will approach the region from the west on
Sunday. Ahead of the cold front, southerly winds from the
departing ridge of high pressure will allow for temperatures to
rise into the mid to upper 80s this afternoon with dew points well
into the 60s and a deep, moist airmass will be in place. This
airmass will be modestly unstable like the past few days and a
couple of showers and thunderstorms could pop up this afternoon
well ahead of the cold front with daytime heating. Then, as the
front approaches, expecting more coverage of showers and
thunderstorms across the area but still nothing more than a mid-
range chance, as there are issues with the strength of the front
and extent of convection. However, unlike the past couple days,
there is a distinct forcing mechanism that is this cold front, so
a mid-range pop is justifiable.

SPC has outlined a good portion of northern Ohio in a marginal
risk for severe weather for Sunday. Forecast soundings across the
area show CAPE values in the 1500-2000 J/kg range for the late
afternoon and with a good, deep layer of moisture and an
approaching cold front for a lifting mechanism. There, thunderstorms
are possible this afternoon. However, the severe extent with these
storms does look limited, as there isn`t a ton of shear to
support any organized severe storms. But, forecast soundings do
show enough instability, marginally ok lapse rates, and DCAPE
values nearing the 1000 J/kg mark so a strong to severe storm
could happen. The main concern with any stronger storms would be
marginally severe hail and some damaging winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The weak cold front that will impact the region on Sunday will
move east out of the area and reach the Atlantic coast by Monday
afternoon. An upper level ridge will begin moving in from the west
and surface high pressure will begin to reestablish itself over
the central United States. This will leave the area nice and dry
for the holiday and the middle of the week. Temperatures will be
just a tad cooler behind the front, with highs reaching the 80
degree mark each day and lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s. Winds
will be mainly from the west on Monday before becoming more light
and variable on Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The models have been consistent in bringing the next trough and cold
front on Thursday. Will go a little higher on the pop with "likely"
across most of the forecast area and "chance" toward the OH PA
border.

Not as much confidence on how fast the front will clear the area.
The latest ECMWF is faster than the other models with the front
moving east of the area Thursday evening. Not going to take that bet
just yet given the relatively deep trough aloft progged over the
western Great Lakes. This could lead to the front slowing or a weak
wave on the front.

Will keep a slight chance/chance of a few showers on Friday given the
trough aloft. Some of the guidance keeps a chance for showers
through Saturday. Would rather not be that pessimistic given that the
surface high should build in with subsidence and drier air. There
are indications that another short wave will come quickly from the
west but will see if we can hold that off until Sunday.

Thursday should be the last warm day and there is some doubt to the
temperature forecast depending on how quick the clouds and
showers/storms will arrive. Temperatures should drop to normal
or slightly below normal after the cold front which will be cooler
than it has been for a while.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Mainly VFR conditions today into tonight. Deeper moisture is
moving across the forecast area today and at least a few
showers/storms will likely pop up...mainly this afternoon and most
likely over northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. Rather that
try and get too specific with pop up shower/storms will forecast
"vicinity" at KCAK KYNG and KERI this afternoon.

A cold front will reach northwest Ohio by late afternoon. The
front will push eastward tonight. There should be enough
convergence ahead of the front for a thunderstorm threat but given
the weakness of the front and some uncertainty of the timing will
forecast "VCTS" in the TAF forecasts at KTOL KFDY KMFD and KCLE
late this afternoon and evening.

Some MVFR mist/fog is likely later tonight especially where it
rained. local IFR visibility a possibility.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in SHRA/TSRA on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie should remain relatively quiet today although the south to
southwest flow will increase slightly ahead of an approaching cold
front. Some thunderstorms are possible along the front. not much
confidence on the amount of thunderstorms but mariners should be
aware for the chance for storms today into tonight.

High pressure will build across the lake later tonight and Monday.
the west flow on Monday will make for a little choppiness on the
east half of the lake but not enough to require a small craft
advisory. the winds will come around from the east and southeast by
Wednesday as the high pressure center moves east. The next cold front
is expected on Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...KEC/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik


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