Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 231155

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
755 AM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

A cold front will move east through the area from late this
morning through the afternoon. A broad trough of low pressure
will then remain over the region through the weekend. High
pressure at the surface will begin to move in from the west
Monday night into Tuesday. An upper-level ridge will then be
centered over the Lower Great Lakes by Wednesday.


Update...A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving
northeast through northern Ohio this morning. These will
continue to move off to the northeast with additional
development expected to occur later this morning into this
afternoon as the cold front approaches. Updated the PoP grids to
better reflect current trends. Otherwise, the previous forecast
remains on track.

Showers are affecting southern and western portions of the CWA
and are moving to the east-northeast. Look for these showers
and a few storms to continue to expand in coverage as the march
across the CWA. A period of dry weather for many is expected
behind this initial wave of precipitation, except for perhaps
northwest Ohio.

A cold front will move in from the west this afternoon,
triggering additional showers and storms. The front will be
fairly slow moving and storm motion will be just 30 degrees or
so from parallel to the front. This will mean the chance for
some training thunderstorms, which could lead to some flooding.
Additionally, there remains a slight possibility that some
storms that develop along this front during the afternoon could
become strong to severe. This will greatly depend on the amount
of clearing that is present ahead of the cold front. While there
is plenty of moisture, extensive cloud cover and limited
instability are two inhibiting factors. The best chance for any
strong/severe storm is across central and eastern parts of the
CWA. Strong winds and hail would be the primary severe threats.

As the cold front moves through, just a few scattered showers
are expected in its wake into the overnight hours. High
temperatures this afternoon should rise to the upper 70s in most
locations. Lows tonight will fall to the upper 50s across
western areas as well as across inland northwest Pennsylvania and
the lower 60s elsewhere.


A broad upper-level trough will hang around the region right on
through Monday. A very weak short-wave ridge embedded within
the large scale trough will move over the area Saturday. With
drier air in place we shouldn`t see much in the way of
precipitation, but can`t completely rule out a spotty shower
during the afternoon near the lakeshore. Still too much
uncertainty to go any higher than a slight chance across a
limited area, but will have to monitor this for future updates.

A shortwave trough will move in from the west late Saturday
night into Sunday. This will bring a chance for some showers to
far northern areas Sunday morning. As we head into Sunday
afternoon, a second shortwave trough will move in from the
west, bringing the threat for a few showers southward across
much of the CWA.

The main trough will finally begin to move east through the area
Monday. This will mean another shot at some precipitation
throughout the day Monday. High temperatures will cool a bit
each day from Saturday through Monday. Saturday`s highs will be
in the middle 70s for most locations, with highs likely not
getting out of the 60s for many areas by Monday.


Upper level trough finally shifts east of the area on Tuesday with
high pressure building into the Ohio Valley. Will keep a low chance
of showers in the forecast on Tuesday but removed the mention of
thunderstorms given the shallow moisture depth and fairly stable
conditions by that point. Removed the lingering low pop from Tuesday
night as the flow on Lake Erie backs around to the southwest and any
lingering showers should be focused out over the lake.

Temperatures will climb back towards normal by mid-week as a weak
ridge builds aloft. Shortwave energy moving through the flow aloft
could bring the next chance of showers and thunderstorms to the area
as early as Thursday.


.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Rain will continue to fill in across the area as a cold front
approaches and interacts with a very moist airmass. IFR ceilings
are in place at all terminals except ERI with heavy rain
showers frequently dropping visibilities to around 1 mile.
Thunderstorms are starting to increase in coverage across NW
Ohio at 12Z and will fill in as they spread east with all
terminals likely to see thunderstorms with periods of heavy rain
into this afternoon. Ceilings will gradually improve to MVFR,
especially on the back side of the rain as early as 20Z near
TOL, with rain slowly ending from northwest to southeast. Much
drier air will spread in from the northwest tonight with clouds
scattering out in NW Ohio and along the lakeshore.

OUTLOOK...Chance of brief MVFR in showers Sunday into Monday
with a cold front and trough aloft.


Southwest winds of 15 to 20 knots will continue into this afternoon
before shifting to the west as a cold front moves through. The
offshore flow will keep the higher waves of 3 to 5 feet in the open
waters. There is some chance that waves may creep up in the
nearshore waters behind the front on the far east end of the lake
behind the front but winds are expected to drop off as they shift to
the west/northwest.

A series of cold fronts will move south across the lake over the
weekend as a slow moving trough sets up across the Great Lakes.
Unsettled conditions with brisk westerly winds expected at times
into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory may be needed at times,
especially on the east half of the lake on Sunday. High pressure
will finally build into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday night with winds
shifting offshore.




NEAR TERM...Mottice
SHORT TERM...Mottice
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