Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 271209
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
709 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...REACHING THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING BACK SOUTH LATE SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW BAND IS SHIFTING EAST AS EXPECTED WITH REPORTS AS HIGH AS 2
INCHES IN LORAIN COUNTY SO FAR...AND AROUND AN INCH AT THE
AIRPORT. THE BAND IS LESS INTENSE NOW AND MOVING SO THINK LOCAL
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH WILL BE SUFFICIENT THIS MORNING. SNOW
WILL WANE SOME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT TROUGH AND MOISTURE APPROACHES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE LIFTING ACROSS OHIO
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WHICH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS COMING OFF LAKE ERIE. THE
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MAINLY BEEN FOCUSED ACROSS LORAIN COUNTY AND ARE
INCREASING IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS BEEN
FOCUSED. THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME HIGHER REFLECTIVITY NEAR 40 DBZ
IN THE BAND COMING OFF THE LAKE BUT SUSPECT THERE MAY BE BRIGHT
BANDING AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. THIS
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE
THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS AROUND TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DISRUPTS
THIS BAND. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FILL IN THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EAST
SIDE OF THE METRO AREA. ACCUMULATIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE MINOR
GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 2 INCHES IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LORAIN COUNTY.

THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO NW
OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A DECREASE IN SNOW SHOWERS FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL ONLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES
TODAY INTO THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER WISCONSIN WILL SWING
ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A
CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVES WITH THE 700MB
FRONT. IN FACT AS TEMPERATURES NEAR 700MB COOL BY 4C WE SEE A VERY
UNSTABLE LAYER DEVELOP FROM THE SURFACE TO 650MB. THERE WILL BE A
WINDOW OF GOOD LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND EXPECT WE WILL
SEE A GOOD BURST OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING. SNOW RATES AND
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE EFFICIENT DURING THIS WINDOW. THIS WINDOW
WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE IN THE 850-700MB LAYER REALLY
STRIPS AWAY BETWEEN 03-06Z. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
SURFACE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH AND IT APPEARS THAT MOISTURE FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GET PULLED EAST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. RAISED POPS THROUGH ABOUT 04Z WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS THE OHIO SNOW BELT AND 2 TO 4 INCHES INTO
PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW WILL HAVE AN EASIER TIME ACCUMULATING AS WE HEAD
INTO THIS EVENING. WE MAY END UP NEED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ADVISORY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING FOR ERIE COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA.

SNOW ENDS ACROSS MOST OF OHIO PRETTY QUICKLY ON FRIDAY
MORNING...LINGERING THE LONGEST TOWARDS ERIE PENNSYLVANIA. AFTER A
COOL NIGHT...HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL ONLY GET TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.
WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW MUCH WILL REACH
THE GROUND AFTER HAVING TO OVERCOME SOME DRY LOW LEVEL AIR. LOOKS
LIKE A PRETTY LIGHT QPF. WARMING TRENDS GETS UNDERWAY ON SATURDAY
AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S...COOLEST IN
PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING.  THE MODELS REMAIN
IN FAIR AGREEMENT DURING PERIOD.  SUNDAY WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY.
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVE THROUGH LATER IN
THE DAY.  NOT SURE HOW FAST THE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN BEHIND THE
FRONT.  BEST GUESS NOW IS THAT SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  DO NOT THINK IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEFORE THE
PRECIP ENDS.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIP COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS TUESDAY EVENING.  WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ALL AREAS.  TOUGH TO TELL THIS
FAR OUT IF THE PRECIP WILL BE SNOW OR RAIN AS TEMPS AND CRITICAL
THICKNESSES ARE RIGHT ON THE EDGE.  HOPEFULLY LATER SHIFTS WILL BE
BETTER ABLE TO PINPOINT THE PRECIP TYPE.  SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL AVERAGE A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A PESKY LITTLE BAND OF SNOW JUST DUMPED AN INCH OF SNOW ON KCLE IN
AN HOUR. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
GOING ON SHOULD BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED. HAVE GIVEN THE EASTERN TAF
SITES A COUPLE MENTION THIS MORNING. THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY
AND THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR ALL
AREAS BY 18Z. A FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR LAKE EFFECT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE EAST OF KCLE. BY
MORNING A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING. SHOULD SEE THE ACTIVITY BEGIN TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AFT
06Z.  WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY NW TODAY.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN -SHSN...LINGERING
ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO FRIDAY. NON-VFR SUNDAY IN -SHRA WITH
THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HELD OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT FOR THE TIME BEING BUT ONE WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING.  THE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE
LAKE ON FRIDAY.  THE FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE S OR SW BEHIND THE
RIDGE.  SLOWLY INCREASING TO S TO SW FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TILL A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LAKE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MORE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR BEHIND THAT FEATURE.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA





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