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000
FXUS61 KCLE 170532
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
132 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT SOMEWHERE FROM FINDLAY TO
MANSFIELD TO YOUNGSTOWN WHICH IS A WOBBLE TO THE NORTH FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS WANT TO KEEP DRIFTING THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
AND IT SHOULD...BUT MAYBE NOT AS FAR SOUTH. AT ANY RATE
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE 60S A WHILE LONGER WHILE
TEMPS IN NE OH HAVE DIPPED INTO THE 50S. WILL KEEP FORECAST LOWS
CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD....BASICALLY UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY BUT
THE MOVEMENT OF THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO
REMAINS IN DOUBT.  THE TREND FOR BOTH MODELS IS LIFTING THE FRONT
NORTH THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH THE FRONT
THAN THE NAM.  CAPES PUSH TO AROUND 1000 J/KG IN THE SOUTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER STILL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT.  IN ADDITION WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TRYING TO BUILD IN AND NO KICKER EXCEPT THE BOUNDARY ITSELF WILL
JUST KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY...MAY TRY TO SNEAK NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BUT PROBABLY A BETTER CHANCE ON TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE GUIDANCE. BASED ON THE
RIDGE ALOFT AND THE AIRMASS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY ONE WOULD HAVE TO
THINK WE CAN GET INTO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 80S. THE MODELS ARE
HINTING AT TWO FRONTS FOR MID/LATE WEEK. THE FIRST FRONT MAY BE A
WEAKENING FRONT/TROUGH FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND BEGIN TO CUT
BACK ON TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THE NEXT FRONT MAY BE A STRONGER BACK
DOOR TYPE FRONT ON THURSDAY. WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN
THE FORECAST AND CUT TEMPS AGAIN A FEW MORE DEGREES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED QUASISTATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE OHIO RIVER
WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PATCHES OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY.

WINDS GENERALLY EAST-NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY.

MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN COMING INTO
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS THE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT MOVES SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD. IF THIS OCCURS...FDY AND MFD COULD SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS BY 00Z TO 06Z SATURDAY.

.OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT FROM CANADA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND ON THE LAKE WITH
WAVES BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS SO WAVES SHOULD NOT BE MUCH HIGHER
THAN 2 FEET...MAYBE A LIGHT CHOP ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. THIS
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES NEAR THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO
LAKE ERIE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MULLEN