Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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786
FXUS61 KCLE 052348
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE TO
MARYLAND ON FRIDAY AND DRIFT OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. FIRST A WARM FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE 630 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AN AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM NEAR
GKJ TO YNG AND STARK COUNTY. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN THUNDER JUST
SOUTH OF YNG. THE NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THESE
SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CONVECTION
NORTH OF THE LAKE IS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CROSSING THE COOL
STABLE MARINE LAYER ABOVE LAKE ERIE. DIURNAL HEATING WHICH HAS
HELPED FUEL THESE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET SO AREAL
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. FAIR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE FIRST
ONE HAS INFLUENCED TODAY`S WEATHER AND WILL SHIFT TO THE DELMARVA
REGION FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL WRAP AROUND TO THE WEST AND MAY BRUSH THE EXTREME
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA FROM GKJ TO YNG BUT THIS IS A LOW
PROBABILITY. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING AND THIS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SHOWERS OR VIRGA. STRONGER
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION WITH SIMILAR TIMING ON THE MODELS.
MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED SO HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARM TO 10-12C WHICH WILL ALLOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND
70 TO 74.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY EVENING WITH
A DIMINISHING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE MIDNIGHT
WHICH WILL BE FOLLOWED BY CLEARING.

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
HAS A SMALL SHORT WAVE CROSSING NEAR NW PA WHICH COULD PRODUCE A
SHOWER SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SLOW EVOLUTION TO THE PATTERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
CLOSED UPPER LOW FROM THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE ROCKIES DAMPENS OUT AND
STRUGGLES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH A RIDGE HOLDING STRONG ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...FORCING THE BLOCKING OF THE SPLIT FLOW.
DETAILS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BE RESOLVED...BUT FOR NOW AGREED UPON
SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTH AND HOLD IN THE
VICINITY FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WHEN A SURFACE LOW CAN
PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. WITHOUT BETTER RESOLUTION FOR THE
LONG TERM...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE THE DAILY PRECIP CHANCES. WILL RUN
HIGH TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE ASSUMPTION THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL INTO OR EVEN NORTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME. LOWS IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SOME HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. BELIEVE THESE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE. IN ANY
EVENT IT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AS NORTHERLY WINDS
DECREASE. IF WINDS CAN DECREASE ENOUGH TOWARD SUNRISE SOME PATCHY
MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KMFD...KCAK AND
KYNG. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT BURNS OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE.

WINDS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY FROM THE NORTH AND NW. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. GUSTS IN THE
20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NON VFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER ACROSS NE OH/NW PA
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. NON VFR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A WARM
FRONT IN THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE BIGGER INFLUENCE OVER THE LAKE AS A
LINGERING TROUGH FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC PULLS AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL TAKE THE CURRENT 5 TO 15 KNOTS TO LIGHT/VARIABLE
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND AN
UPTICK IN SPEEDS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THESE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK FAIRLY
QUICKLY BY SUNDAY EVENING...AND THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH WAVES IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
BEYOND SUNDAY WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD THE LAKE FOR TUESDAY. WIND SPEED/WAVES
NOT AN ISSUE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



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