Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301749
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
149 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will move off the east
coast. A cold front from the upper midwest will sag across the
area on Wednesday. Below normal temperatures will move into the
region Thursday through Saturday as Canadian high pressure builds
across the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A few showers and thunderstorms continue to trickle eastward
across southern lower Michigan. Still expecting dry conditions to
persist through this afternoon but have raised pops for tonight
and tomorrow as shortwave energy and moisture stream east across
the area ahead of the approaching cold front.

Original "Today" discussion... Patches of cirrus were beginning
to spill across the area and some debris clouds are likely to
continue to slide across the forecast area today especially
northwest Ohio. A few thunderstorms continued to pop up early this
morning along the advancing theta-e ridge near Lake Michigan. The
theta-e ridge will be close to Toledo by late afternoon but with
ridging aloft and some really weak lapse rates progged for the mid
layers, will keep the forecast dry today.

The boundary layer flow will begin to come around from the south as
the surface high shifts east. A lake breeze will develop with the
light gradient. High temperatures should be as warm as Monday,
probably a degree or two warmer in most areas. Highs mostly in the
mid to upper 80s. With daytime mixing, dew points will remain in
check, upper 50s and lower 60s except perhaps a few degrees higher
across northwest Ohio.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the lower lakes
tonight as the theta-e ridge pushes east across Lake Erie and the
front approaches. Not sure about the coverage. I suspect the showers
and storms will remain scattered given the time of day and that the
jet dynamics will remain to the north. The warm waters of Lake Erie
may aid in some development toward daybreak.

Timing the front on Wednesday will be interesting as the models hint
at a pre frontal trough or perhaps two fronts with the first being
shallow. The first front or trough should be passing Toledo and near
the south shore of Lake Erie first thing Wednesday morning. The
front/trough should drift inland and most models indicate that it
will be the primary focus for new convection which seems reasonable.
PW is progged by the GFS to pool up toward 2 inches which is higher
than I would have guessed. Will have 50-60 pop in most inland areas.
Not sure if a few additional showers or storms can develop over Lake
Erie late in the day or early at night as the secondary front drops
across the lake.

It will be cool enough for lake effect showers on Thursday but there
are timing issues. A trailing short wave will reinforce the
trough aloft but the surface high will be building at the same
time. Will continue to mention a "slight chance" for showers,
mainly across the snowbelt. Will include areas between Sandusky
and Lorain and Mansfield due to the north flow.

The surface high will build across the Great Lakes by Friday. The
air mass will be a preview to fall. Some lake clouds will continue
in the morning which should evolve into fair weather cumulus.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Fantastic weather for the holiday weekend is in store for the
region. A strong ridge will be parked overhead. The surface high
will be off to the east allowing for a warm southerly flow.
Progressively warmer each day and...as has often been the case this
summer...went a few degrees warmer than what an ensemble average of
guidance would give. Therefore by Monday...we will be seeing upper
80s once again. Dry/no precipitation chances which does not help the
drought situation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions prevail with high pressure nearby with low
dewpoints over the eastern half of the region. Expect a gradual
increase in moisture late this afternoon and evening as high
clouds spread in from the west and some cumulus develop mainly in
the west near TOL and FDY. A northerly lake breeze can be
expected at CLE and ERI with light and variable winds elsewhere.
Models are somewhat variable in timing of the spread of showers
into the region from the west tonight. The HRRR shows rather
weak/light scattered showers spreading into the region between
06-10Z with VFR conditions prevailing. As the weak front
approaches the region on Wednesday morning a band of lower clouds
with cigs near 3000-4000 ft can be expected with vsby dropping to
4-5sm in shra. Cold frontal passage can be expected between 16Z
and 20z across the TAF sites.


OUTLOOK...vfr expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet on the lake today with high pressure overhead. Will have an
onshore flow this afternoon for the central and eastern nearshore
waters. A cold front will move across on Wednesday...with an uptick
in south-southwest winds ahead of it. As the cooler air/new airmass
arrives...north-northeast flow from Wednesday night through early
Friday may be enough to need a small craft advisory. By Saturday
high pressure will be returning to the lake and conditions calm.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...KEC/Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...LaPlante
MARINE...Oudeman



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