Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 270010
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
710 PM EST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over West Virginia will move off the Mid
Atlantic Coast on Monday. Low pressure over the plains Tuesday
will move to lower Michigan on Wednesday. The trailing cold
front will move across the local area Wednesday. Another cold
front will drop across the Great Lakes Thursday night. High
pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Broad area of weak warm advection developing over the midwest
with patches of high and mid clouds developing. Made minor
adjustments to the hourly sky cover tonight based on current
trends. Raised the hourly temperatures a degree or two early
tonight. Will have to see how much the wind diminishes otherwise
we may have to raise overnight low temperatures a degree or
two. No other changes for the evening update.

Original "Tonight" discussion...
Quiet weather is expected overnight. A ridge along the OH/PA
border will drift slowly east overnight. Skies have cleared
everywhere but NW PA but should do so there shortly. This means
the night will start out clear all areas. Expect winds to
diminish toward sunset and there will be a few hours of decent
radiational cooling before southwesterly winds begin to pick up.
Still a little snow cover over NW PA and with readings that
area currently in the upper 20s to around 30. See no reason why
temps won`t fall well into the 20s tonight. 2M temps from the
HRRR and NAM3 support this scenario. Have gone ahead and gone
several degrees below guidance. Even further west guidance
numbers appear warm for lows as temps have struggled in full
sunshine today. Will go ahead and lower the previous forecast
several degrees. Some increase in clouds is expected overnight
especially in the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Warm air advection will get going during the period and temps
again will be well above normal. Still have to contend with a
lot precip during the period. On Monday have trimmed precip
chances back to where they were yesterday. The southeast half to
third will see small chances of showers through late afternoon.
The area will then see a dry period before the main show begins
Tuesday morning. The GFS remains an outlier spreading precip
across the area Monday night. The NAM...SREF and ECMWF all have
the precip arriving along the I-75 corridor around daybreak.
Have no concerns about precip type as temps will be in the upper
30s to around 40 by the time the rain begins. Temps will warm
quickly on Tuesday and will stick with likely wording all areas.
Precip chances and rainfall rates will increase Tuesday night as
low pressure heads toward the lakes. Still some model
differences but these should have little impact on the practical
weather. Will need categorical wording Tuesday night and
Wednesday. There appears to be at least a small threat for
strong thunderstorms ahead of the surface cold front on
Wednesday. Have added a chance for thunder all areas. Later
shifts hopefully can tweak the thunder threat. The cold front
should be through the area by 00z Thursday. Lake effect precip
is likely behind the front Wednesday night.

Given the changing airmasses have not gone too far from guidance
for temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The model trends for the extended remain the same...timing differs
somewhat.  Some lingering snow showers in the East on Thursday as
trough remains over the Eastern Lakes.   A clipper system moves
across the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes late Thursday into Friday
morning.  The GFS is much faster and further north with the low than
the ECMWF.  Prefer the slower timing of the ECMWF...but think
clipper will be far enough north that almost everyone will see some
snow.  As with most clipper systems snow amounts should be on the
light side.   High pressure builds over the lake Friday night and
should linger through the weekend.   Weak warm front lifts across
the Northern Lakes Saturday...rather moisture starved so for now
will keep forecast dry.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions through the night expected as high pressure
continues to shift east across the Appalachians. Mid clouds
overspread and thicken toward morning. Guidance showing ceilings
will lower in the afternoon as a weak system crosses southern
OH. Have MVFR ceilings across southern terminals after 18Z Mon.
There may be a sprinkle there. Low level wind shear a
possibility tonight across the northern terminals TOL/CLE/ERI as
low level jet cuts across lower MI into Ontario.

OUTLOOK...Areas on non-vfr Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday in
-shra and -tsra. Rain will turn to snow Wednesday night in non-
VFR conditions. Non-vfr possible again Thursday night and
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory has expired on the east half of the lake as
waves have diminished to 2 to 4 feet.   Winds will back to the south
and increase to 15-20 knots as a low pressure system tracks across
the Ohio valley...but do not expect a Small Craft Advisory.  Best
chance for next Small Craft will be late Tuesday into Wednesday as
strong system tracks across the Central Lakes dragging another
strong cold front across the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik/Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...DJB


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