Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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542
FXUS61 KCLE 211357
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
957 AM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system across central Ohio will lift northeast
across the area on Saturday. Low pressure will track east across
the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MCS continues to pass southeast of the area along the deeper
moisture axis. Will hold onto a low 20-30 pop in our southern
counties through the morning as it passes with a pool of 1500
J/kg ML Cape across Knox/Holmes Counties in case outflow kicks
something off. Otherwise a strong cap is expected across the
rest of the area, especially as drier mid-level air arrives from
the north. Raised cloud cover for most areas this morning as
the convective debris overspreads the area and lowered highs
across the southern counties by a couple degrees where cloud
cover is expected to be thickest. Clouds should tend to thin
through the afternoon.

Original...High pressure moving east across the central and
lower Great Lakes will force the weak cold front south into
central Ohio by 12Z this morning. Drier more stable air will
move into the area briefly today. Will however begin with a
slight chance pop across the swrn tier of counties given the
proximity of the front early on. Radar actually does show a
shower in Knox county as well as a few showers further west
across Indiana along the boundary. Otherwise partly cloudy and
dry. Should be another hot day with highs in the upper 80s to
near 90.

Tonight the front will begin returning as a warm front. We will
be dry to start but expect moisture/instability to return
through the night. Models hinting at an MCS developing north of
the front to our west and traveling across the upper midwest
dropping into the area after 06z- 09z time frame. After 06z have
boosted pops to likely west third with the rest of the OH
counties having chance pops by morning.

Saturday, the NAM12 shows low pressure tracking east across
Michigan and the lower lakes, then dropping south through the
afternoon across northern Ohio/nwrn PA. The GFS keeps the low
north of the state. The SREF is also less aggressive favoring
the GFS. So for now will hold pops into the likely range vs
categorical. Highs from near 80 northeast to the upper 80s
southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The threat for showers/thunderstorms will continue into Saturday
night with the cold front just making its way into northwest Ohio
Sunday morning. Will allow precip chances to slowly diminish over
the course of the night from the northwest as the most widespread
activity is expected to carryover from the afternoon into the
evening. Solutions vary though on when to actually bring the
effective cold front fully across with a definitive wind shift to
the northwest. An initial cold front crosses Sunday, but have second
crossing with one last upstream shortwave to move across the Great
Lakes Monday. So will retain at least some chances for
showers/thunderstorms through Monday, especially east and southeast
portions of the county warning area. Muggy Saturday night followed
by mid 80s for highs Sunday. Initial cold front will limit highs
Monday to the upper 70s/near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will expand across the region Tuesday and Wednesday
bringing fair weather and cooler more comfortable weather to the
area. Dewpoints will fall back into the 50s. Highs will be in the
mid 70s to near 80. That high will shift east Thursday and the next
cold front will be dropping southeast across the Midwest/Great Lakes
Thursday. We very well may be spared with one more dry day and
temperatures warming into the 80s across a larger portion of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
High pressure and slightly drier air moving in from the north
today however satellite show bkn-ovc mid/high level cigs
spreading across the area from convection to our west. Expect
mainly VFR conditions to persist today although could see an
hour of MVFR to start. Thunderstorm chances remain low until
after 06z Saturday. Between 06z and 12z saturday thunderstorms
should be moving into the area from the west. Would expect
MVFR/IFR conditions in storms.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday through Sunday in early
morning fog/mist or scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Frontal boundary north of the lake will become increasingly
difficult to pick out and high pressure from the central lakes will
essentially settle over Lake Erie with light/variable winds expected
on the lake today. Nearshore waters will get an onshore flow for the
afternoon. The front lifts north across the lake Saturday with winds
returning to the south and southwest. With the front in the vicinity
thunderstorm chances are increased and some of these may be strong
between Saturday and Saturday night. Thunderstorm complexes will
also dictate wind direction on the lake Saturday. There are great
differences amongst the forecast models on when the front will get
its final push southward. Opted for the slower more seasonable
solution which would take winds slowly around the west by Sunday
morning. The shift to the northwest may wait until Monday when a
disturbance aloft moves across the eastern Lakes. High pressure
passes north of Lake Erie for Tuesday with northeast winds
eventually becoming light/variable Tuesday night with better marine
conditions.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Oudeman



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