Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291756
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
156 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN ALLOWING A
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THEN STALL OVER OHIO BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE PATCHY DENSE FOG IS DISSIPATING AND SHOULD NO LONGER BE A THREAT
AFTER 10 AM.

EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE LASTS FOR ONE MORE
DAY. AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OH/INLAND NW
PA. TEMPERATURES VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...IN THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF A SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT AS THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE IN SOME TIME MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WEST COAST WILL TRANSLATE EAST...MAKING IT TO THE MISSISSIPPI
BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING US AN INITIAL COOL DOWN FOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY.

A NARROW BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
FRONTAL TIMING IS A BIT FASTER...WITH A 12Z POSITION NEAR CLE
INSTEAD OF TOL. HAVE BROUGHT IN THE PRECIP CHANCES SOONER. MINIMAL
THUNDER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH KEEP THE MENTION ACROSS EASTERN OH/NW
PA WITH SOME AFTERNOON HEATING AIDING IN INSTABILITY. LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERS AND GETS TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION THEREFORE
TUESDAY NIGHT BRING BACK/INCREASE THE SKY COVER. A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD
EASTWARD.

AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH BRINGS A COLD FRONT TO MI/IN THURSDAY
NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW SHOWERS MAY REACH INTO TOL/FDY BEFORE
6AM FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE LIMITED WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON TUESDAY.
EARLIER FRONTAL TIMING WILL MAKE ANY TEMPERATURE RECOVERY ACROSS
NW OHIO MORE DIFFICULT AND HAVE LOWERED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER/MID
60S. THAT THOUGH IS STILL ON THE HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH THE
TOLEDO MAV AT 66 BUT THE MET ONLY AT 54. WARMER BY A FEW WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...REACHING HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE TIMING IS STILL TO BE DETERMINED ON THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN
THE WEEK. AN AVERAGE POSITION OF THE MODELS WOULD PUT THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWEST OHIO FRIDAY MORNING...THEN MOVING INTO PENNSYLVANIA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND CANNOT
TRY TO GET TO SPECIFIC WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY. WE COULD SEE THE 70S IF
THE FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER BUT IT MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER/MID
60S IF THERE IS RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT FROM THE WEST EARLY IN THE
DAY. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR NOW AND FORECAST UPPER 60S IN
MOST AREAS.

THE BULK OF THE COOLER AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.

THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EAST QUICKLY...WITH
WARM ADVECTION UNDERWAY BY SUNDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE MODELS
GENERATE A LITTLE QPF WITH THE WARM ADVECTION ON SUNDAY. TYPICALLY
THIS TIME OF YEAR WE CAN WARM UP WITHOUT PRECIPITATION SO WILL NOT
HAVE MUCH OF A POP IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND NW PA TO THE LOWER 60S NW OHIO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SAGS IN TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND OR
DRIZZLE WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE LAKESHORE. VFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY AND
THEN CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE. SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP AT
MFD...CAK AND YNG BEFORE THE CLOUDS MOVE IN. AT THIS TIME THE BEST
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF IFR WILL BE AT TOL...CLE...MFD AND ERI
AFTER DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN THIS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING SHIFTING THE WIND
FROM THE NORTHWEST...PERHAPS MORE NORTHERLY ALONG PARTS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE GRADIENT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
OF AN INCREASE IN WINDS OR WAVES. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
EARLY TUESDAY. THE WIND MAY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR A WHILE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT...THEN WEST TO NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STILL NOT MUCH OF AN
INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN INCREASE
IN WINDS OR WAVES ON TUESDAY.

THE WIND MAY QUICKLY VEER TO MORE OF A NORTHEAST OR EAST DIRECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THE
FLOW SHOULD VEER MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH BY THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT FRONT WILL BE MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT...CROSSING THE LAKE EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL PICK OF
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN VEER MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALL BUT CERTAIN BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KOSARIK






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