Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291903
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
303 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THEN A CLIPPER
LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. A LOW NORTH OF THE LAKES THURSDAY
WILL PULL A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY ON THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE NEXT IN THE CONTINUOUS SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE CWA
TONIGHT. THE MODELS STILL SHOW A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR A BAND OF SHRA
TO CROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT...WITH THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA
EXPECTED TO BE DONE WITH THE PRECIP THREAT BY THE END OF THE NIGHT.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STAY WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN VERSUS SNOW. EVEN IF MAINLY SNOW OCCURS IN PART OF THE NE STILL
LOOKS LIKE ACCUMULATION WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS AND MOSTLY FOR
GRASSY AREAS. DON`T SEE ROADWAYS BEING A PROBLEM AFTER TODAY`S
SUNSHINE AND LOWS EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING.

WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH SHOULD DIMINISH SOME WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AS THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE FRONT GETS PUSHED
OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING ON IN THE SNOWBELT ON MON WILL PROBABLY
ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER THERE WHILE THE
REST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OH
VALLEY. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL MON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NE WHERE CLOUDS
WILL TEND TO PERSIST.

A CLIPPER LOW REMAINS ON TRACK TO DROP ESE ACROSS THE AREA ON TUE.
ONCE AGAIN...PRECIP TYPE WILL BE IN QUESTION AS THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE FOR THE NE THIRD
OF THE CWA. WHERE MORE SNOW MAY OCCUR IN NW PA DURING THIS
EVENT...GUESS IS THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE UP TO 2 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION. HIGHS ON TUE WILL LIKELY SHOW A GOOD RANGE FROM COLDER
THAN NORMAL AROUND ERI ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TO
A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE FAR SW ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
LOWS TRACK.

A LITTLE LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP MAY OCCUR FOR A WHILE INTO TUE NIGHT
IN THE EAST BUT HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR MOVE IN LATER IN THE
NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH MOVING IN AND CALMING THE WIND THE LOWS COULD
BE UNSEASONABLY COLD TUE NIGHT WHERE ANY SNOW COVER EXISTS BUT WON`T
GET TOO EXTREME WITH LOWS AS THERE IS INDICATION THAT HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY BEGIN TO MOVE IN.

THE HIGH SHOULD START TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
DAY ON WED BUT PROBABLY NOT QUICK ENOUGH TO GET A LOT OF TEMP
MODERATION ESPECIALLY IF ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS SPILL INTO THE AREA.

A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET SHOULD BE DEVELOPING INTO THE CWA WED
NIGHT SO MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG WITH WARM ADVECTION.
PROBABLY WILL BE A SITUATION WHERE THE LOWS OCCUR EARLY IN THE NIGHT
THEN TEMPS WARM AS SOUTH WINDS PICK UP AND CLOUDS INCREASE. NOT SURE
HOW FAR EAST THE THREAT FOR PRECIP WILL SPREAD INTO THE CWA BUT
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE JUST THE WEST WILL HAVE ANY THREAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  THE
PERIOD WILL START WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  TEMPS WILL LIKELY
MAKE IT INTO THE 60S THURSDAY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH DEWPOINT
CREEPING TOWARD 50.  SOME UPPER SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION SO WILL
LIKELY SEE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THE FIRST THUNDERSTORMS OF
THE SPRING.  THE NEW ECMWF IS MUCH SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE
GFS SO TIMING ISSUES REMAIN.  FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CHANCE POPS
BOTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCES PROBABLY THURSDAY
EVENING.  THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT.
BECAUSE OF THIS WILL NEED TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING INTO AT LEAST
EARLY SATURDAY.  HOPEFULLY LATER MODEL RUNS WILL COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ALLOWING FURTHER FINE TUNING OF THE PRECIP FORECAST.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO QUIET
AND COOL WEATHER.

USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS FLOATING ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEAREST PRECIP
REMAINS NEAR KORD SO IT WILL TAKE TILL EVENING BEFORE IT REACHES
NW OHIO. IN THE MEANTIME EXPECT HIGH AND THEN MID LEVEL CIGS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WILL BRING LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE EVENING. MOST OF THIS WILL BE RAIN
BUT LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AT KERI AND KYNG MOST OF THE NIGHT. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD
BRIEFLY DIP TO MVFR A FEW HOURS AFTER THE PRECIP STARTS. THERE IS
STILL THE POSSIBILITY FOR A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS BEHIND THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS JUST
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY PUTTING IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. S TO
SW FLOW WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN
SWITCH TO THE WEST BEHIND IT. SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON
MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.

.OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF NON VFR MONDAY MORNING...TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE LAKE FORECAST TODAY.  GOT A GOOD LOOK AT THE
LAKE ON SATELLITE AND THE ICE ON THE WEST END CONTINUES TO BREAK
UP.  STILL EXPECTING INCREASING S TO SW FLOW ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  SOME SHIFTING IN THE ICE FIELDS
IS LIKELY AND COULD EVEN SEE WATER OPEN UP ALONG ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORELINE.  WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.  WILL STICK
WITH 30 KNOTS FOR NOW WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.  THE WESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN A SURFACE RIDGE CROSSES THE
LAKE AND FLIPS THE FLOW BACK TO THE SW.  A CLIPPER IS STILL SET TO
DIVE SE ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO NORTHERLY
FLOW.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
LIGHT FLOW.  ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE.  WEST TO
NORTHWEST IS THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA









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