Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 241617
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1217 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
A cold front will continue to move south of the area this morning.
A high pressure ridge will slowly build southeast across the western
Great Lakes region by Tuesday morning. The ridge will shift east
across the area Wednesday and to the east coast by Wednesday night.
Low pressure will move east across the area late Wednesday night
into Thursday night.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Radar mosaic showing scattered showers across nw PA. Temperatures
on target. Will continue the forecast as is with this midday
Previous discussion...As the cold front slides further south
today, the flow should become well aligned in the northeast to
allow showers to develop off Lake Erie. 850 MB temperatures drop
down to -2 degrees C as compared to lake surface temperature of 17
degrees C. This supports only conditional instability over the
lake today. Beginning to see a connection to Lake Huron going into
nw PA. Otherwise, rest of the forecast area should remain dry
through the day.
As cold air advection takes place, air mass across the area will
be noticeable cooler today than they were yesterday. Temperatures
across the central and east will essentially hold steady. A small
rise is expected across the west.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wind flow will begin to shift to a more east to northeast direction
tonight as the high pressure ridge begins to build east across the
area. Expecting fair weather to be the rule across the region
through Tuesday evening under the influence of a building upper
level ridge and surface high pressure ridge over the local region.
As the high pressure ridge at the surface pushes east, this should
set the state for some slight warm air advection behind a weak warm
frontal boundary. Low pressure is progged to move east toward
northern ohio and northwest Pennsylvania by Wednesday night. A
fairly good swath of moisture is expected with the storm system and
this will bring a return back to some rain showers late Tuesday
through Thursday night.
Some fairly strong cold air advection will take place, especially
Tuesday night, across the forecast area. Low temperatures will drop
well into the 30s most area. 850 mb temperatures will drop to
between -2 degrees C and -4 degrees C by Tuesday night across the
eastern half of the forecast area. Warm air advection in the mid
levels will be protruding into the western areas of the forecast
area by Tuesday into Tuesday night. Further warming aloft will take
place by Wednesday and Thursday.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not many changes to the long term today. The models have the
typical timing issues so some uncertainty remains. Friday will see
the area on the backside of a departing system. Some showers are
possible through midday downwind of the lake. Another strong system
will dive southeast across the Great Lakes region for the start of
the weekend. Precip appears likely on Saturday with instability
showers downwind of the lake into Sunday. Already had precip
chances in most of the period and see no reason for changes.
Temperatures during the period will average a couple degrees below
.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
As expected most of the area is seeing strato cu cigs. Much of
this is VFR but pockets of MVFR are persisting. Any remaining MVFR
cigs should lift by midday but cigs will persist over the eastern
half to two thirds of the area through the afternoon. Skies should
clear in the far west after 18z. Latest guidance continues to hint
at showers over the east end of the area. Will continue with a
tempo mention at ERI. Skies will clear from west to east after
dark. NW to N flow has diminished some but gusts in excess of 20
knots are likely again after 15z. Winds will diminish quickly
OUTLOOK...Areas of non VFR late Wednesday into Thursday.
The surface cold front has pushed south of the lake causing the flow
to become northerly. Winds will become more northwest during the
day today and expect small craft conditions to develop. Have not
made any changes to the headlines. It will be Tuesday before High
Pressure moves over the lake and causes the winds to diminish. The
flow will become easterly Tuesday night and increase on Wednesday
ahead of the next storm system. Low pressure will move over the
lake on Thursday with southerly flow becoming northwest behind the
low. More small craft headlines appear likely for the end of the
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ144>149.