Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201755
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1255 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of lows and upper disturbances will move northeast across
the Ohio Valley through the weekend and into the middle of next
week. The last low on wednesday will pull a strong cold front across
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Band of steady rain will continue to exit to the northeast
through early afternoon. Upstream observations continue to show
areas of drizzle and a few light showers and have adjusted the
wording in the forecast to reflect that as the moderate rain
departs. QPF across the area this morning has ranged from .5-.75
in the west to around 0.30 in the east. It appears we have handled
the rain well and none of the river forecast points are expected
to flood. A break is likely in the drizzle this evening with
patchy drizzle possible again overnight as the next surface trough
lifts north.

Previous discussion...Rain has made its way to the I-75 corridor
and will rotate and lift across the rest of the area
today...leading to several hours of a steady rain. The wedge of
high precipitable water/deep moisture is associated with a
negatively tilted upper shortwave that will weaken with time today
as it runs into the ridge extending up to near Hudson Bay. Drying
wrapping in on the backside of this wave as seen on recent water
vapor imagery will put an end to the steady rain from southwest to
northeast from late morning through mid afternoon. Rainfall
amounts still look to range from a quarter to a half inch. A lot
of low level moisture will be left behind and there is some
concern we will not be entirely rid of light precip later this
afternoon. Therefore have retained 20 percent chances in the wake
of the earlier rain for the remainder of the day. Temperatures
will rise into the upper 30s/lower 40s for the rain and then
further increase after the rain exits...topping out in the upper
40s/near 50. After yesterdays performance and the continued
widespread stratus...have gone on the colder side if guidance for
those highs today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The mild weather will hold through the weekend and into early next
week. The first shortwave to make eastward progress...versus
being drawn northeast across the western Great Lakes...cuts across
the Gulf Coast states Sunday. With no cold air to tap into
yet...we will maintain the cloudy and mild status quo with
scattered rain showers.

It is hard to pinpoint an entirely dry period the next few days.
We retain enough low level moisture and broad lift with cyclonic
flow cannot rule out drizzle or a few light showers Saturday or
Sunday. The models are starting to key in on a piece of shortwave
energy that will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley Saturday
night. With that feature have raised our precip chances. Beyond
that we are left in a void between the upper low that will be
tracking across the Gulf Coast states and another across the upper
midwest. Again cannot say zero precip chance...but with no
significant feature to key in on...difficult to put much detail
into the forecast just yet.

Temperatures will stick in the 40s and 50s...with slightly cooler
readings for Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The east coast low is progged to move off the coast on Tuesday.
Ridging is progged to expand quickly across the midwest. Lingering
light precip is possible across extreme northeast OH and northwest
PA. It may be cold enough for some wet flakes especially over the
higher terrain but the air mass behind the system will not be cold
by January standards. Highs from the mid 30s NW PA to the lower 40s.

The next low will come quickly and it will be more of a panhandle
hook tracking toward the western Great Lakes. If it were not for the
low level jet, I would think there is little risk of warm advection
showers but will keep a low pop Tuesday night as the low level jet
increases. The column should warm quickly and do not see much risk
of snow.

We should be in the warm sector Wednesday, at least to start the
day. The models bring the cold front across the area at a variety of
times but an afternoon frontal passage seems to be the average. In
any case, most indications are that the day will be warm, especially
across northeast OH and northwest PA where highs could push 50F.
Will keep a chance of showers with the frontal passage.

The trough aloft will cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
It will finally get cold enough for some snow showers, mainly in the
snowbelt, but nothing out of the ordinary.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Most precip has now moved northeast out of the area however
conditions remain IFR across much of northern Ohio with MVFR
conditions in NWRN PA. Expecting IFR conditions to move into NWRN
PA after the rain lifts northeast mid/late afternoon. Also
expecting most IFR to remain through the day...possibly lifting to
MVFR late. Overnight, guidance is divergent with the GFS
suggesting IFR and LIFR conditions return while the NAM shows
mostly MVFR conditions. At this time have sided with the GFS and
took most locations down to IFR. Although with downslope flow at
KCLE and KERI went with MVFR conditions through the night.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR persisting through much of saturday. Non-VFR
developing again Sunday continuing Monday. Non-VFR will likely
persist on Tuesday NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
The flow on Lake Erie has come around from the east ahead of a weak
low pressure center and warm front. Winds will veer more southerly
today as the system lifts across the lake. Speeds will remain
rather light. The flow will veer to the northeast over the weekend
as deep low pressure tracks well south of the lake and up the east
coast early next week. The northeast flow will become brisk as the
pressure gradient increases and a small craft advisory will be
needed Sunday into Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...KEC/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Kosarik



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