Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 191649
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1149 AM EST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will continue to move east of the area today
allowing a ridge of high pressure to build northeast into the
local area through Monday. The center of the high pressure will
move east and off the Virginia coast by Monday evening. A cold
front will move east across the local area Tuesday night while
another high pressure builds east across the area Wednesday
night into Thanksgiving day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Update...Have removed wind advisory. No other big changes.

Previous discussion...

Low pressure moved east of the area and continues to cause gusty
winds mainly across the lakeshore counties from Lorain County
east. Gusty winds over the lake will affect the lakeshore areas
and therefore will keep the wind advisory going across that
area. Winds have diminished enough inland and in the northwest
to go ahead and drop the wind advisory.

Next problem of the day will be the threat for lake effect
precipitation. All areas have the potential to be affected by
either lake effect rain showers and/or snow showers. Albeit,
much less of a chance in the west. Cold air advection will take
place especially this afternoon into tonight as colder air
infiltrates the area. Moisture across the area begins to
deepen overnight along with increasing upward vertical motion.
Dendritic snow growth potential with temperatures between -12
and -19 C expected to lower into area of ideal moisture across
the northeast portion of the forecast area. Lake induced
instability increases from conditional to moderate and briefly
extreme overnight tonight with wind fields supporting a uniform
wind flow from the surface to around 10,000 feet. Inversion
lifts later this evening as well. This should provide somewhat
ideal conditions for a period of time overnight for lake effect
snow/rain showers to develop. The problem is, areas near the
lake could see rain/snow and a period of all snow while the
higher elevations to the south will see rain transitioning to
all snow this afternoon into the evening. Snow accumulations of
3 to 5 inches are expected across southern Erie County
Pennsylvania and a sliver of the northern portions of Crawford
County. So will go ahead and issue the first lake effect snow
headline of the season for southern Erie County Pennsylvania.
Can`t rule out 5 inches in a few places in eastern Ashtabula and
northern Crawford but should be limited in areal coverage at
this time.

The rest of the area will see a slight chance of rain
showers/snow showers through the day today.

Some clearing will try to work its way into the local area from
the west tonight. However, due to the lake effect, skies will
remain cloudy over the northeast tonight into Monday.

Flow will slowly shift to a more southwest direction during the
day Monday and this will gradually shift the snow band up and
over the lake ending the threat of snow shortly after mid day.

Warm air advection will begin to take place once again Monday
afternoon as surface high pressure slides by the area to the
south and bringing a return southwest flow to the area. This
cold spell will be short lived through Monday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SSW winds will increase on Tuesday ahead of the next cold front.
There are some uncertainties with the Tuesday forecast. First, how
warm can it get? 850 mb temps warm nicely with the south flow. We
could potentially get into the lower and mid 50s but will be a bit
conservative with the forecast since the high and mid clouds will
increase and there could be virga at some point. I doubt any precip
will reach the ground. I suppose that by the end of the day a shower
could occur along the east lakeshore and the snowbelt but will keep
the Tuesday forecast dry. Some lake enhanced/lake effect rain and
snow showers will likely occur across the snow belt Tuesday night
into Wednesday but the inversion is progged to lower and high
pressure will be building in so not expecting any snow of any
consequence.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A decent short wave is progged to cross the northern lakes on
Thursday and warm advection will occur but not expecting any
precipitation, perhaps patchy mid and high clouds. Not a bad
Thanksgiving but it will probably not warm up all that much on
Thursday. Highs mostly upper 30s/around 40.

The ECMWF tries to sag a back door cold front to near Lake Erie by
Friday morning. The other models are not as aggressive and wait to
bring the next front across the area early Saturday with a secondary
cold front soon after. Will go with the idea of a cold front
sometime on Saturday but moisture will likely be limited with the
actual frontal passage. There will be some lake effect snow Saturday
night into Sunday as a chunk of arctic air drops across the eastern
Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Ceilings will slowly improve through the day today as the low
pressure continues to pull out to the northeast. Winds will stay
around 15 to 25 knots across the area today except higher winds remaining
at Erie since they are closest to the lake. Lake effect snow
will begin to occur this afternoon and continue through Monday
morning. There may be a mix of rain/snow today through the
evening hours at the Erie airport and then all snow late
tonight. The rest of the area will see gradual improvement
back to VFR conditions and high clouds late tonight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continues into Monday across northeast Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania. A brief period of Non-VFR possible
Tuesday night all areas and through Wednesday night in the
northeast snowbelt.

&&

.MARINE...
Have dropped gales on the entire lake as winds have dropped to
30 knots.

original discussion...
Northwest gales on Lake Erie will begin to diminish today but only
very slowly. Will continue with the gale warning on the western
basin through 9 AM and on the central and eastern basin through 4
PM. The flow will back to the southwest on Monday as high pressure
move east of Lake Erie. The southwest flow will increase on Tuesday
ahead of the next cold front. Small craft advisories may be needed
on Tuesday, at least from around the Islands and eastward as
southwest winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots.

The cold front is expected late in the day Tuesday and winds will
veer back to the northwest behind the front. A small craft advisory
will likely be needed until sometime Wednesday as high pressure
builds across the lake. The flow will become southwest again on
Thursday but wind speeds will remain relatively light for
Thanksgiving.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ002.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...TK/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...DJB



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