Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 231210
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
710 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017
Low pressure over the central Great Lakes today will move northeast
pulling a weak cold front south into the area this evening. The
front will stall across central Ohio tonight then lift north as a
warm front on Friday. Another area of low pressure will track out of
the Plains and pull a strong cold front east across the area on
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Adjusted cloud cover for this morning given considerable breaks
in the clouds across western Ohio. Dry air noted below can be
seen on satellite imagery upstream across southwest Michigan and
will allow for a little more optimistic cloud forecast across
the north this afternoon. A low chance of showers remains as the
front pushes inland this afternoon.
Previous discussion...Elongated area of low pressure extending
from Quebec to lower Michigan will slide northeast today. Low
level moisture advection early this morning could result in a
few showers developing along the northeast lakeshore but will
only carry a low chance. The cold front trailing this system
will sink south across Lake Erie this afternoon. A wedge of dry
air near 850mb will slide in from the west behind the front
which will limit potential for showers in the north. As the
front pushes inland it may interact with residual moisture to
the south to trigger a few showers this afternoon. Can not
entirely rule out a thunderstorm along this boundary this
evening with a minimal amount of instability in place but a warm
layer near 700mb will work to inhibit vertical growth.
Skies are expected to be mostly cloudy today except becoming
partly cloudy behind the front. Temperatures this morning are
starting out in the mid to upper 50s and should be able to achieve
highs in the mid 60s despite the cloud cover. Locations along the
lakeshore will be a bit cooler and will see temperatures start to
drop with the wind shift off the lake this afternoon. Records highs
are as follows and are forecast to be broken at MFD and CAK.
Mansfield 62/1985 and 1930
Erie, PA 65/1922
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low level baroclinic zone tightens up this evening and begins to
lift north ahead of low pressure tracking out of the Plains. Leading
shortwave energy lifting out of the trough will stream across
northwest Ohio and Lake Erie as the elevated front lifts north
with showers expanding. Better moisture advection arrives in
northwest Ohio towards 03Z with showers spreading eastward
Surface warm front will be located over Lake Erie by Friday morning
and we will spend the day in the warm sector ahead of the
approaching system. Temperatures will soar on Friday with most
models showing low clouds mixing out across all but northwest
Ohio. The GFS is the exception to this and wants to hold onto
more cloud cover but this seems unlikely given how far we are
displaced from the low with the warm front well to the north. Highs
are forecast to range from near 70 degrees in Toledo to mid and
locally upper 70s in the east. We are forecasting record highs
at all locations and a few sites may even try to break the all-
time record high for the winter season.
Removed chances of precipitation from all areas by mid-morning
on Friday given the lack of moisture and forcing. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected to approach from the west during the
evening in advance of the strong cold front. The Storm
Prediction Center has expanded the Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms eastward to the Mansfield area with the Slight
Risk including almost all of northern Ohio. Cloud cover is
expected to be more extensive to the west which will limit
instability but strong forcing for ascent is expected as the
upper level low curls in from the west during the late
afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will arrive earlier in
the day and expect a cap to be in place until a strong jet of
nearly 90 knots at 500mb wraps in from the southwest leading to
rapid storm development. Some discrete cells seem possible
during the evening before organizing into more of a line
somewhere east of the I-75 corridor. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat but a few tornadoes are also a possibility given
the strong shear and expected low LCL`s. Storms will approach
our western counties after 8 PM and continue eastward overnight.
Instability will wane through the evening and expecting to see
a weakening trend with storms, especially after midnight.
Unfortunately any stabilization of the boundary is expected to
be rather shallow which means stronger downdrafts could still
pose a threat of severe weather through much of the night.
Temperatures will fall through the day on Saturday as the
strong cold front comes through. Winds will gust to 30-40 mph
behind the front, highest across northwest Ohio as a trough
lingers across Michigan. Precipitation will diminish across most
areas while lingering in the snow belt areas. P-type will be
rain for the bulk of the day but will transition over to snow
during the evening. It will take a few hours to develop, but
eventually expect lake effect snow showers to increase during
the overnight hours as instability increases over the lake
bringing minor snow accumulations to higher portions of the snow
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure should be pushing up the oh valley sun bringing an end
to the lake effect shsn by later in the day.
The models show the main upper trough over the west monday that
shifts east into the midwest by late wed. There are a series of weak
s/w troughs moving across the region mon into wed so won`t fight the
superblend guidance pops, thus keeping chc pops going mon thru tue
with precip changing from a rain or snow threat to just rain by tue
afternoon as temps warm well into the 40s or 50s. As the main trough
moves into the midwest a more significant surface low should move
out of the plains and across the lakes wed pulling a cold front
across the cwa. The low and cold front should combine to produce
widespread shra tue night and wed with lake effect shsn expected to
develop wed night as temps drop below freezing.
.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Stratus and fog over the east half should improve into midday. A
cold front will sag south across the area from mid afternoon thru
the evening veering winds from sw to nw then to ne. Conditions will
lower behind this front and rain will start to develop near the
front late today and tonight while the front starts to lift back
north to be near lake erie by 12z.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR returns Friday evening/overnight then mainly just
snowbelt by later sat into sun. Areas on non-vfr monday.
A cold front will drop across lake erie this afternoon veering winds
from sw to north then ne for tonight then continuing to veer around
to the south by fri afternoon as the front lifts back north across
the lake. A deep low will move ne along the front across lake huron
fri night pulling a cold front across lake erie shifting winds to sw
then to west by later on sat as another cold front pushes across the
lake. Winds should increase to 20 to 30 knots on sat then gradually
diminish late sat night thru sun as high pressure moves up the oh