Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 280503
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
102 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016
High pressure will continue to move away from the region tonight.
This will allow low pressure to track east across the northern
Great Lakes into Ontario on Sunday dragging a cold front across
the region. The front will stall across Southern Ohio on Monday.
High pressure will build across the lower Great Lakes from the
north on Monday and Tuesday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Thunderstorms are gradually shrinking as they move east and as
expected by the short term models. Early update to pull back POPs
in the west. Otherwise, made some minor adjustments to increase
dewpoints and hourly temperatures overnight.
Ongoing convection over northwest Ohio is expected to continue to
move off to the northeast. Had some gusts in excess of 60 mph with
the storms but a downward trend in intensity is expected as these
storms move east into less juicy air. Will also have to watch the
storms over southwest Ohio as they could clip the southern end of
the forecast area if they maintain themselves. The HRRR and other
guidance shows these storms weakening. This makes sense as the
instability and available shear is much less the further east and
north you go in the area. Will stick with some scattered wording
for the evening hours but most of the activity should be gone by
03z or so. Stayed to the warm side of guidance.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather will continue tomorrow with a weak cold front
sagging south across the area. Will have a moist airmass in place.
Expect some locally enhanced convergence along the south shore of
the lake by midday. This may be enough of a focus to initiate more
convection. Already had chance type precip chances mentioned and
that seems reasonable. The threat for storms will persist into the
overnight hours but by daybreak Monday northeast flow will be
ongoing. This will slowly dry things out and lower dew points to
more seasonable values. Dry weather should then persist through
the end of the period.
We got warm today and 850 mb temps Sunday are only expected to be
about a degree cooler than today. With a fair amount of sunshine
temps should again make it back into the upper 80s many areas and
have gone above guidance. Will trend to the warmer side of
guidance the other periods as well.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure will move east across Ontario on Wednesday, pulling a
cold front south across the area. A shortwave moving south out of
Canada will act to further deepen the trough across the eastern
Great Lakes on Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will drop back to the
lower 80s on Wednesday with highs in the 70s for Thursday and
Friday. There will be a chance of thunderstorms with the front on
Wednesday followed by high pressure and dry conditions to end the
week. The upper level ridge will build in from the west with
temperatures trending warmer into the 80s.
.AVIATION /060Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Temp and dewpoint spread low around most of the area. With light
winds and partly cloudy skies on average expect fog and stratus to
develop at most locations. Some spots...mainly the inland sites
could see ifr conditions for a while toward the end of the night
into the first hour or two of daylight. Daytime heating sunday will
dissipate the fog and stratus.
A few isolated shra/tsra could develop into early daylight but the
threat is too low to mention. Sct tsra will be developing late sun
morning and afternoon as a weak frontal boundary/trough axis moves
se across the region. This will shift southwesterly winds to the
northwest during the afternoon. Winds should turn quick enough at
cle and eri due to lake breeze enhancement so tsra development
should be further to the south of these sites.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR ceilings and visibility possible Sunday night
into Monday morning.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will move northeast across the
lake late this afternoon into early this evening bringing periods
of higher winds and waves. By late evening winds are expected to
return to southerly.
Lake breezes are expected to push inland again on Sunday aided by
high pressure building to the north. Winds will generally be light
through the first half of the week with northerly winds increasing
to 10-15 knots with the cold front on Thursday.