Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 310122
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
922 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST
THIRD OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY TRY
TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY MOVING NEAR THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED TSRA DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.  NO SIGNIFICANT CAHNGES FOR 930 UPDATE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST INTO PA
TONIGHT. MOST OF THE DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF BY THE
END OF THE EVENING. DEVELOPING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ALLOW
SOME FOG TO FORM LATE IN THE NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM 63 TO
69...WITH THE WARMER READINGS ALONG THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS IN MON INTO MON NIGHT. THE UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THE RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN QUICK ENOUGH TO OFFSET LINGERING MOISTURE WHICH COULD
STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR WIDELY SCT CONVECTION TO OCCUR WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. WILL MAKE A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TO SPREAD THE SMALL
CHC POPS FURTHER NORTH WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE INTERACTION MAY HELP TO
TRIGGER DEVELOPMENT. ANY CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF WITH SUNSET.

TUE IS ALSO INTERESTING INT THAT THERE IS A SMALL POCKET UP UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING NE IN THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE THAT GETS
INTO THE AREA BY THE END OF THE DAY. WILL KEEP SLGT CHC POPS IN THE
SW HALF OF THE AREA FOR THIS SMALL THREAT FOR HEAT OF THE DAY
CONVECTION.

ON WED...THE MODELS SHOW THIS WEAK UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MERGING WITH ANOTHER S/W MOVING THRU THE LAKES. AN INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET FEEDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE UPPER LAKES TUE NIGHT THRU WED. THE THERMAL
FIELD IS SET UP TO ALLOW REMNANTS OF THIS CONVECTION TO DIVE SE
TOWARD THE AREA. WILL SHOW A MORE BROAD BRUSHED SMALL CHC POP
SITUATION FOR LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.

TEMPS WILL START OUT ON MON A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL AND SLOWLY
INCREASE TO BE MORE ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUE AND WED WITH SOME PLACES
AROUND THE SW HALF OF THE CWA GETTING NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DECENT SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO
SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRYING TO BACK DOOR ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES. A TRUE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNLIKELY HERE WITH THE RIDGING
ALOFT BUT THE SURFACE HIGH WILL LIKELY BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AND A DRIER NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF COOLING ALONG THE LAKE
ERIE LAKESHORE BUT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
ELSEWHERE WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90. WITH THE DRIER
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THE RIDGE ALOFT ALMOST OVERHEAD BY THE
WEEKEND...WILL OMIT ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TROUGH ALOFT IS SHEARING AND SLIDING EAST. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A THREAT AT ANY
LOCATION TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF FORECAST. DEW POINTS HAVE COME
UP AND THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG AT
DAYBREAK. MOST PLACES WILL DROP TO MVFR VISIBILITY WITH A FEW
IFR VISIBILITIES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE ON
THE EXACT VISIBILITY AT EACH TAF FORECAST SITE. FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO
LATE MORNING AS THE CUMULUS DECK DEVELOPS AND LIFTS. A GENERAL
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG THE EAST COAST. LAKE BREEZE WIND SHIFTS WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE AND MAY AFFECT KERI.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE WITH
ONSHORE/OFFSHORE GRADIENTS DOMINATING THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE HOLDS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND THE EAST COAST.

A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ACTUAL FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT CROSS LAKE ERIE BUT HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK AND THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER 15 KNOTS...THE
SUMMER DOLDRUMS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/DJB
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK


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