Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 251328
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
928 AM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front over indiana will move across the area later today into
tonight then high pressure will push east across the great lakes
friday through saturday. A dissipating cold front will push east
into lake erie sunday before high pressure builds back over lake
erie for much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Visible satellite imagery shows some breaks in the cloud cover
beginning to form over the area. Remaining convection from the
west has almost dissipated. Convection is still expected this
afternoon. 12z DTX soundings indicate MUCAPE values almost
2000J/kg. Shear values are marginal but LCL heights remain low.
SPC has shifted the SLIGHT risk area to the east but still covers
a large portion of the CWA. Severe thunderstorms are still
expected with damaging winds the primary threat. Isolate tornadoes
are not out of the question. The convection will most likely form
on boundaries from the overnight convection. The current timing of
thunderstorm activity in late afternoon and evening looks on
track. Very minor adjustments to this forecast.

Previous Discussion...
The remaining shra/tsra with the warm front should shift east of
the cwa by 8 to 9 am leaving most of the area with a break in the
rain threat until daytime heating starts to trigger new tsra
around midday. The HRRR and RAP continue to show the current
convection over indiana weakening as it moves east toward the cwa
with just sprinkles in our nw counties between 9 am and noon.

A cold front moving into the west later today will provide a focus
for the convection to develop. The combination of instability and
shear is sufficient enough for some severe storms to occur and spc
has pretty much the entire cwa in a slight risk outlook.

There should be enough sunshine today to push temps into an 85 to 90
range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front should push east of the cwa around or just after
midnight which will bring the threat for strong to locally severe
storms to an end. Drier air will spread in with the front but the
airmass will only be a little cooler. Lows tonight should run from
the upper 60s to lower 70s east to mid 60s west. Highs on friday
will run in the low to mid 80s.

The stretch of dry wx should continue thru sat night as high
pressure remains in control. There is a dissipating cold front that
tries to move into the area on sun which could provide focus for
some tsra development but the situation is marginal so will keep the
pops relatively low. Temps will be warmer on the weekend with highs
mostly in the mid to upper 80s although some of the far ne could
stay in the low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The long term begins Monday with models showing high pressure to our
north and a cold front in our southern counties from near KMFD to
KYNG. The front will drop south near the Ohio River and stall by
Tuesday morning as the high drifts southeast out of the western
lakes to the central and eastern lakes.  Flow aloft is zonal to
weakly ridging across much of the lower 48 with weak short waves in
the flow.  Will have dry conditions Monday night post front.  Will
also have dry conditions Wednesday night.  Otherwise models show
sufficient moisture through the period that with daytime heating and
the weak disturbances in the flow...it would be hard to rule out at
least a small chance for convection.  Other then above will have low
chance of slight chance pops.  Temps a few degrees above average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Weakening convection should move in from the west by 830-9am
impacting KTOL and KFDY initially. Best chance for thunder however
will be KFDY although most of the lightning is moving on a track
south of our area. After morning convection ends and fog/stratus
lifts and thins expecting VFR conditions the first half of the
day. This afternoon expect convection to redevelop and move
through the after...mainly after 20-22z. This evening a cold front
will sweep southeast. Concerned however that the low level
moisture doesnt get swept before dawn so did bring in morning fog
towards the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...A chance of non-VFR late Saturday night or Sunday
morning with the next front.

&&

.MARINE...
Expect southwest winds today ahead of an approaching cold front.
Speeds will likely be in the 10 to 15 knot range but could get up to
15 to 20 knot range especially east half in the afternoon. The front
will move east across the lake tonight turning winds to the
northwest by Friday morning. Winds will then diminish during the day
as high pressure builds over the lake. Winds will remain light
Friday through Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Garnet
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK


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