Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 241748
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1248 PM EST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered southeast of the region will push east
off the Mid Atlantic coast by this evening. Low pressure will
track east across James Bay tonight into central Quebec
on Saturday, which will force a cold front east across the
region by Saturday afternoon. High pressure will build across
the region Saturday night into the beginning of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A patch of clouds continue to move east across Lake Erie and
will affect extreme lakeshore counties of northeast Ohio and
Erie County of Pennsylvania. Nothing more than high clouds and
partly cloudy skies. Otherwise, temperatures continue to warm
through the afternoon. No major changes other than the cloud
cover northeast.

Previous Discussion...

Minor tweaks to sky cover and temperatures with the early
morning update. Any cirrus remains well off to the west this
morning, so tried to keep sky cover in the sunny/mostly sunny
range into the afternoon hours. Bumped up highs again about a
degree for most areas, but fairly similar to the original
forecast.

Original discussion...
High pressure will keep conditions quiet through this evening,
with mostly sunny skies for much of the day and some high clouds
moving east into the area late this afternoon. Bumped highs up a
degree or two across the area, more in line with the warmer MOS
guidance vs. the raw model guidance. Should be able to achieve
the warmer numbers today with relatively good mixing/dry low
levels, fairly strong WAA at 850mb and pretty good insolation
for much of the day. Currently thinking most spots will see
lower 50s, with a few spots in the mid 50s possible.

Low pressure will track east, just north of the Great Lakes,
tonight into Saturday, with a cold front approaching the area
late tonight, and moving through the area on Saturday. Models
are rather unimpressive with the forcing and moisture, so have
backed off on pops with the front itself just a bit, with slight
chance to low chance pops late in the overnight into Saturday
morning. Models seem to be slowing down a bit with the front and
subsequent cold air behind it, so tried to start the slowing
trend with the gridded forecast, but things may need to be
slowed down a bit more with future forecasts. Have pops jumping
up to likely across extreme NE OH and NW PA Saturday afternoon
as lake enhancement begins, as drop to near -5C by 00Z Sunday.
Precip should remain liquid through 00Z with warmer low levels
and slower arrival of the colder air. No major changes to temps
tonight or Saturday, with lows around 40 tonight and highs in
the upper 40s Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Secondary surge of colder air will arrive Saturday evening with an
increase in lake effect showers expected. The colder air should help
to change the rain over to snow by midnight with some very light
accumulations possible. Drier air builds into the area quickly on
Sunday with warm advection already developing. This should shut down
any of the lake effect snow that developed. High pressure will then
ridge across the area from the Tennessee River Valley by Monday
morning but it will quickly move off the Middle Atlantic Coast
Monday night. This should allow winds to increase as we approach
Tuesday morning.

Sunday will be the transition day back to seasonal averages on
Monday. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Warmer on Monday with highs lower 40s to near 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next cold front will be approaching the area on Tuesday with
another breezy day anticipated. This weakening boundary will likely
cross the region by Wednesday morning but with very little moisture
to lift will only go with slight chance POP`s. The models then hint
at a southern jet stream storm system that approaches the area
Wednesday night into Thursday. Current models weaken this low as it
moves toward the region so the onset of a few showers is very
uncertain. We may have to wait until the upper level trough gets
closer to the area late Thursday night into Friday.

Tuesday should be the warm day of the long term period with highs
attempting to reach the middle 50s. Cooler Wednesday into Thursday
with increased cloud cover but highs should still be at seasonal
levels. Highs Friday are very uncertain since there are model
differences with the frontal timing. Current thinking is that we
will see early highs in the middle 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
High pressure will continue to move east of the area this
afternoon and tonight as a cold front approaches from the west.
Winds will be around 15 knots in the west ahead of the front
this evening and then diminish with the frontal passage.
Expecting winds to increase again from west to east after
frontal passage in the morning. Skies will gradually lower to
IFR conditions overnight. Expecting any rain to be from
Cleveland to Mansfield east. Any rain activity will be scattered
and light. Lake effect develops in the northeast toward the end
of the period.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR Saturday night through Sunday night northeast
Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory may be starting a bit early across the western
basin of Lake Erie today but it will be needed by evening. So at
this point we will make no changes to the headlines. The
southwesterly winds will continue to increase through 06Z Saturday
then dip a bit as a cold front moves across the lake. Winds shift to
the NW in its wake but with the longer fetch we should see 4+ foot
waves from Vermilion to Ripley. Winds shift back to the southwest on
Sunday but remain at least 15 to 20 knots. This may keep waves up
enough to extended the small craft advisory into Sunday night. We
will take another look at this over the next couple shifts and
extend if needed. High pressure will briefly ridge onto the lake
from the Tennessee River Valley on Sunday night into Monday with
winds decreasing. However by Monday afternoon southerly winds will
be on the increase ahead of the next cold front that will arrive
Tuesday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST
     Sunday for LEZ147>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Sunday for LEZ145-146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Mullen


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