


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
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070 FXUS61 KCLE 162007 AFDCLE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 407 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will move east through the area on Thursday and linger across the Ohio Valley as high pressure builds from the north on Friday. This front will gradually lift back north on Saturday, followed by a cold front on Sunday. High pressure will build back into the area on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Main concern for the near term period will be heavy rain from thunderstorms and the potential for flash flooding through this evening. Overall, confidence in any widespread flash flooding appears to be decreasing, with any flash flooding concerns through this evening likely only confined to urban areas, driven by rate-driven heavy rain. Recent radar trends and satellite imagery suggest that the most organized convection through this evening will occur across Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania with PWATs ranging between 2 and 2.20 inches. Elsewhere, mid-level dry air and weak flow may limit storm organization leading to a lower flooding risk, albeit with seasonably-high atmospheric moisture content. Shower and thunderstorm coverage should gradually diminish following sunset as the shortwave responsible for the earlier convection moves east into Pennsylvania. Later this evening and overnight, a stronger low pressure system will move northeast through the Central Great Lakes, extending a cold front across the area on Thursday. Can`t rule out some scattered showers with isolated thunder chances, though for the most part, this appears to be a mostly dry frontal passage, with redevelopment expected further south across the Ohio Valley by the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Main concern for the short term period will be heavy rain and flash flooding potential from thunderstorms late Saturday and Saturday night. Aloft, an upper-level trough will move east through the Upper Great Lakes while a ridge develops and builds across the Deep South. A favorable environment for heavy rain will be in place across the Lower Great Lakes region, with PWATs once again approaching 2.0 inches in the vicinity of a stationary front. WPC currently has much of the area in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for flash flooding. There is currently no SPC outlook at this point for Saturday, though could certainly see future inclusion if model trends persist. Will continue to monitor the potential over the next few forecast iterations. Otherwise, Friday will bring a welcome relief from the Summer Heat behind Thursday`s cold front as high pressure briefly builds south across the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be slightly below average with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and dew points in the lower 60s to perhaps upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Main concern for the long term period will be the return of the heat by Tuesday and Wednesday. The latest ensemble probabilities depict low chances (10 to 30%) for Heat Indices to exceed 100 degrees, mainly across the western half of the area as a strong upper-level ridge builds across the Deep South and expands northwards into the Ohio Valley. Will continue to monitor the developing heat potential over the next several forecast iterations. Otherwise, high pressure will briefly build in from the north by late Sunday into Monday, leading to seasonable temperatures in the low to mid-80s. Humidity levels will gradually increase on Tuesday and Wednesday with dew points approaching the low to mid-70s. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/... SHRA and TSRA will impact most terminals during the first six hours of the period, as a shortwave currently near KDAY moves northeast across the region through the evening. TSRA activity is mostly unorganized, but the best chances for prolonged TSRA activity will be KYNG, KCAK, and possibly KCLE, with IFR vis restrictions and gusts to 30 kts possible with any TSRA. TSRA activity will diminish diurnally near/after 00Z. Another wave and surface low will move east through the Great Lakes tonight into Wednesday pushing a cold front southeast towards the area. Some MVFR ceilings possible where cloud cover persists overnight, with mixing/lifting of any ceilings after 12Z with diurnal mixing. Winds will generally be south/southwest through the period, increasing and becoming westerly Thursday as the cold front nears the area. Some gust to 20-25 kts possible during the day Thursday. Outlook...Non-VFR possible in lingering showers and thunderstorms across the south and southeast portion of the area Thursday afternoon and evening. VFR expected Friday before Non- VFR chances return Saturday and Sunday in scattered showers and thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Opted to issue a small craft advisory for Thursday into Thursday night given high confidence, as west winds sharply increase late tonight into Thursday as low pressure moves just north of the lake. Winds of 20-25 kts expected Thursday, although the window is rather brief for the western basin. A cold front pushes southeast across the lake behind the low, with winds becoming northerly in the 10-20 kt range, with waves reaching small craft criteria expected to continue in the central basin through Thursday evening. Winds and waves will subside into Friday as high pressure builds across the region. Winds and waves will generally be light through Saturday before another low moves near the lake, with some increased westerly winds in the 10-15 kt range. This will be brief before winds become easterly Monday as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for OHZ010>012-089. PA...Beach Hazards Statement from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for PAZ001. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 2 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ142>144. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ145>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Kahn NEAR TERM...Kahn SHORT TERM...Kahn LONG TERM...Kahn AVIATION...03 MARINE...03