Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 071131
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
631 AM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front was located from Western NY to Central PA early this
morning. In its wake high pressure will ridge into the region
bringing dry conditions. An upper level trough will rotate across
the Central Great Lakes on THursday with much colder air arriving
in its wake. Lake Effect snow will then persist into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only minor changes have been made to sky cover and temperatures
grids to reflect current trends.


Previous Discussion...
High pressure will ridge across central and southern Ohio in the
wake of a cold front that is moving across NY and PA. Westerly
winds will remain gusty through the day, especially closer to the
lakeshore. There should be a bit of sunshine today but middle and
high level cloud cover will increase through the afternoon.

It will be cooler today with highs remaining in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will move toward the Central Great Lakes
with increasing lift expected ahead of it. This will likely set
up an area of low level convergence over Lake Erie with some
enhancement to the band of precipitation that develops in the
southwesterly flow. THis will direct a band of snow into Western
NY at some point after midnight. This band will attempt to sag
southward toward the PA lakeshore as winds shift a bit more to the
west as the upper trough passes. There will likely be a general
light snow for a decent portion of the County Warning Area(CWA) as
the upper trough moves overhead. The colder air arrives in the
wake of the trough after midnight Thursday night into Friday. The
arrival of the colder air will allow the Lake Effect machine to
develop. As winds shift to the northwest it will likely have
significant impacts across NW PA. Another area of concern for
significant accumulations would be near the Lake/Geauga county
line, including the Chardon area. Still enough uncertainty with
the onset of the impactful snow to keep us from jumping on the LES
Warning for now. Accumulations of 8+ inches will be possible over
the 48 hour period from Thursday through Saturday morning.

The heaviest snow looks like it will occur after midnight
Thursday night into Friday. The instability over the region looks
like it will be enough to allow for some thunder to develop in the
most intense bands of snow on Friday. Winds will attempt to become
a bit more from the west Friday night which will direct the
heavier snow into NW PA. Winds will likely blow some of the snow
around as it accumulates Thursday night into Friday. Have only
mentioned the blowing snow closer to the lakeshore at this point
in time.

Temperatures tonight through Friday night will not vary all that
much, ranging from the middle 20s to around 30.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Lake effect snow will gradually be ending at some point on Saturday
as surface high finally moves across the lower lakes.  Held onto the
snow until later in the day when the 850mb ridge finally builds in
and shuts lake effect down.   But the break from the snow will be
short lived as the next system moves through on Sunday.   Track and
timing of the low differs significantly.  GFS tracks the low across
the Central Lakes Sunday night...while the ECMWF tracks the low
across southern Ohio Monday morning. For the forecast used a blend
of models for the temps...but went likely with the pops on
Sunday. Either way will get a quick widespread synoptic snow on
Sunday. Will see some lingering snow Monday...especially in the
snowbelt. Timing of the next system also in doubt. GFS moves
strong cold front through Monday night...while ECMWF is does not
until late Tuesday. For forecast just went with low chance pops
and blended the temps.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Stratus deck over the eastern half of the forecast area will
gradually mix out this morning as ridge of high pressure moves
over the lower lakes. Mid level deck will spread over the area
this afternoon. Stratus deck will redevelop overnight as inversion
sets up under high.

OUTLOOK...Arctic front will move through Thursday afternoon. Lake
Effect snow develops Thursday into Saturday especially across
snowbelt east of CLE.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory remains in effect until the weekend.  West
winds of 15 to 25 knots will turn to the southwest today ahead of
arctic front that will move through Thursday.   There will likely be
a little lull in the winds tonight and they may fall below Small
Craft Advisory conditions for a short time, but will pick back up to
20 to 25 knots again by Thursday morning as the arctic front moves
through.  West winds increase to 30 knots Thursday night as the
850mb temps plunge to -12c.  Lake effect snow will develop Thursday
and continue in the snowbelt east of Cleveland until Saturday.
Thunder snow will be possible Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Lake Effect Snow Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday
     morning for OHZ012>014-089.
PA...Lake Effect Snow Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday
     morning for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Saturday for LEZ146>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB



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