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000
FXUS61 KCLE 260543
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
143 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL SHIFT OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY
AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY ACROSS LAKE
ERIE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND CIGS 10K-12K FEET DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS...SO REPLACED WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WITH CHANCE OF SPRINKLES.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
FAIR PLEASANT WEATHER OF LATE WILL MODIFY OVERNIGHT AS WARM
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO OCCUR. SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER NIGHT. WITH DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER AIR IN PLACE AND NOT FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN COUNTIES AND NEAR LAKE ERIE. HAVE USED MAV GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A RATHER COMPLICATED STORMY FORECAST PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY MORNING WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR 18C.
DEEP SHEAR INCREASES TO 40-50 KNOTS SATURDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
SHEAR( 0-1 KM) RISING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS. THE SREF TORNADO INGREDIENTS
PARAMETER INCREASES TO 30 OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA TOWARD 00 UTC SUN
SO WE WILL NEED TO BE MINDFUL OF THE INCREASE POTENTIAL FOR
ROTATING STORMS. TIMING OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS DIFFICULT AT
THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE SCATTERED MORNING CONVECTION IN THE NORTH
WITH A LULL UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION
IS EXPECTED WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY EVENING.

MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE WITH
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE IN THE EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND
SHEAR STILL LOOKS ELEVATED WITH AMPLE CAPE SO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AND SOME LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE
SNOWBELT COUNTIES. UPWARD MOTION IN THE COMBINATION WITH A WARM
LAKE NEAR 23C AND COOLING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR LOW
TOPPED LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS TO PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THERE SHOULD BE A SLOW DECREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL POUR INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE CANNOT SHAKE THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE COOL UPPER TROUGH
OVERHEAD...SHOWERS CANNOT BE REALLY RULED OUT ANY POINT YET. SO
CONTINUE THE MENTION OF CHANCE/SCATTERED SHOWERS UNTIL THE SUBTLE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCING FEATURES CAN BE PICKED OUT...AS WE GET
CLOSER IN TIME TO THOSE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOOK FOR PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS NOW MOSTLY OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

BY MID SATURDAY MORNING WE WILL START TO SEE SOME LOWER VFR
CIGS DUE TO AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

WINDS LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY WITH 10 TO 15
KNOTS SUSTAINED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN THRU MON.

&&

.MARINE...
A FINE EVENING ON THE LAKE TONIGHT. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE AROUND
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS/COMPLEXES POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT/S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TIMING YET IS UNCERTAIN. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE. WINDS ON THE LAKE VARIABLE AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTH OF THE LAKE SATURDAY AND THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY. WINDS ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MET. HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...DJB/LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...OUDEMAN