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000
FXUS61 KCLE 030350
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1050 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TONIGHT WILL
CAUSE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE QUICKLY INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WITH
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND WARMTH AHEAD OF IT. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THEN STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION AS
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG IT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...CLOUDS ARE ADVANCING IN AND SHOULD PREVENT THE COLD SPOTS
FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH FURTHER SO BACKED OFF THE WOOSTER...MARION
AND ASHTABULA LOWS FROM 930PM. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN OHIO TOT HE EAST
COAST TONIGHT. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BEGIN LIGHT WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A QUICK DROP OF TEMPERATURES UNDER CLEAR TO BECOMING
CLEAR SKIES. SO THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
MIDNIGHT THEN SLOWLY WARMING AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
AND CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT
THE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BEGIN ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO UNTIL AFTER
SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES WILL ALREADY BE RISING BY SUNRISE WITH SNOW BEGINNING
TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS AREA OF SNOW WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE TRICKY PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE SNOW TO RAIN. THIS TRANSITION
WILL BRING A 2 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN.
ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW MAY REACH AN INCH OR TWO WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. IMPACTS APPEAR
MINOR AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND WILL MAINLY OCCUR ON UNTREATED
ELEVATED SURFACES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A
TRANSITION OF RAIN BACK TO SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW MAY OCCUR
BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST. BY WEDNESDAY
THE FRONT WILL SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH ANOTHER RIPPLE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT. THIS SHOULD SPREAD SOME SNOW BACK
INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. AGAIN
AMOUNTS DONT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH A DUSTING TO 2 INCHES
MAX.

DRIER AIR SPREADS INTO THE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING HIGH
PRESSURE.

WARM ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 40...MIDDLE 40S SOUTH. COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY WITH EARLY HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 30. A RETURN TO
THE TEENS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES...YET
STILL BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH NO NOTABLE PRECIPITATION
EVENTS.

FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
WE`LL SEE SOME SUNSHINE...WHICH WILL BE NECESSARY TO WARM US UP FROM
THE SINGLE/NEGATIVE DIGITS FROM THAT MORNING. WARM ADVECTION WILL
PUSH TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S FOR THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH MOVING
EAST AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RELAXING. LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY
NIGHT SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN OHIO BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. IT
WILL CLEAR OUT SUNDAY. HOWEVER THE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH COULD BRING A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW LATE SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME FEEL THE CLIMATOLOGY
INFLUENCE IN THE LATER PERIODS OF THE GUIDANCE MAY BE WARMING THE
SFC/BOUNDARY LAYER MORE THAN IS LIKELY GIVEN THE PATTERN/SNOW COVER...SO
FOR THIS TIME HAVE KEPT THE PRECIP AS ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WITH WHAT IS EXPECTED OF THE PRECIPITATION COMING
OUR WAY FOR TUESDAY. VFR FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING IN THE MORNING. INITIAL PRECIPITATION TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT/VFR-MVFR SNOW. THERE WILL
BE A TRANSITION ZONE WHERE FZRA OR PL WILL BE POSSIBLE -
MVFR/ISOLATED IFR. FINALLY ALL TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
TO PLAIN RAIN AND IFR CONDITIONS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. EAST- SOUTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND PICK UP AS THE RAIN ARRIVES. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO
CONTEND WITH TOO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON GOING INTO THE EVENING.



.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA. NON VFR POSSIBLE
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS WILL WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
LATE. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET COMES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CREATES STRONG
GUSTS AROUND 30 KT AT TIMES. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS DROPPING TO 20KT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH WINDS 15KT OR LESS
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     OHZ010>012-020-021-030>032-038.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     OHZ013-014-022-023-033-089.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     OHZ003-006>009-017>019-027>029-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...JAMISON