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000
FXUS61 KCLE 160718
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
318 AM EDT SUN MAR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
AREA DURING MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TEMPS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME FALLING AS NORTHEAST WINDS
REMAIN ABOVE 10 KNOTS MOST AREAS. THIS MAKES THE FORECAST TRICKY
FOR TODAY AS GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE ACTUALLY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT
READINGS. STILL EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF A FEW MORE DEGREES BY
DAYBREAK. SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED ALOFT DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A DIURNAL RANGE TODAY.
AS IT STANDS WILL TREND WARMER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPS BY A FEW
DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES WILL KEEP THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY TODAY BUT WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP CLOUDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN U.S. LOW FROM SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERN
LOCATIONS WILL SEE FILTERED SUNSHINE BUT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE THICKER CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
WELL TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT CLOUDS TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS. TEMPS WILL BEGIN
TO TREND UPWARD ON MONDAY AND BY WEDNESDAY READINGS WILL ACTUALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE HIGH TO THE
NORTH WINS OUT. LOTS OF MODEL DIFFERENCES ON WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE EAST
COAST AND ALSO OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF
THESE LOWS IS UP IN THE AIR. FROM THE PRACTICAL SIDE OF THINGS...IT
SHOULD RAIN ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HAVE BUMPED
CHANCES UP TO LIKELY. THE PRECIP COULD START IN THE WEST LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN THE SNOWBELT. IT APPEARS TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A
MAINLY RAIN EVENT. HAVE USED TO A BLEND OF GUIDANCE TEMPS MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THURSDAY WITH WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKES BEING EJECTED BY
SURFACE RIDGE.  START OUT WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOWBELT EAST
OF CLEVELAND WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST AS
HIGH MOVES IN.   MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.  GFS MOVES SYSTEM
THROUGH ON FRIDAY...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT.  PREVIOUS FORECAST USED THE ECMWF TIMING SO SEE NO REASON TO
FLIP FLOP FORECAST WHEN CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACT TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID LEVEL
DECK WILL GRADUALLY ERODE FROM THE WEST LATE TODAY AS LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SLIDES INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. WITH A NE FLOW COULD SEE A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS BUT AIRMASS
IS VERY DRY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WILL SEE GUSTY NE FLOW OVER ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MIGHT BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL LAKES THIS WEEKEND AND SLIDE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
ON TUESDAY.  THIS WILL SET UP A NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES
WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES. WINDS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND MAX OUT NEAR 30 KNOTS.

&&


.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...DJB