Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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084
FXUS61 KCLE 170504
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1204 AM EST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track out of the Plains towards southern Lake
Michigan by Tuesday morning lifting a warm front north across the
area. The low will drift towards the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday
evening with a weak cold front shifting east behind it. High
pressure will build overhead Wednesday then shift to the east coast
on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain has started from Toledo to Findlay and will continue to
progress eastward through the overnight hours. Fog brought
visibilities down to around half a mile at Toledo an hour or so
ago, but with the start of the rain, visibilities have improved
and will continue to do so. Generally light rain is expected with
this first batch, but heavy showers and possibly a thunderstorm
will accompany the second batch, which is currently located
across central Indiana. Chances for thunder will begin after
midnight in the west and closer to 4 or 5 AM in the Cleveland
area. Bumped PoPs up to near 100 across the western portion of the
CWA for early tonight and eventually up to near 100 everywhere by
late tonight into the morning rush.

Most locations should receive between 0.5 to 1 inch of rain,
though locally higher amounts will be possible in any
thunderstorms.

Previous discussion...
The nose of a 50 knot low level jet will begin to shift more
towards Pittsburgh by Tuesday morning and better chances of
convection may be focused across southern/central Ohio. The rain
will move through fairly quickly on Tuesday as the dry-slot wraps
into the system so not looking for a prolonged rain event like
last week. Areas rivers will see rises from the additional
rainfall but most are not expected to reach flood stage unless
basin average qpf exceeds an inch. Some ponding of water possible
in poor drainage areas, especially if rain comes down quickly.

Temperatures will warm overnight and be in the 50s most areas on
Tuesday. Record highs range from 58-60 degrees at MFD/CLE/CAK/YNG so
several sites will be close.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will shift east across Lake Ontario Tuesday night with
weak cold advection wrapping in behind the system. Temperatures will
cool back into the 30s overnight with a lingering chance of light
showers with the passage of one more shortwave. Precipitation will
be mostly rain but may start to mix with snow late.

High pressure builds overhead Wednesday but expect ample low level
moisture to remain. Kept skies mostly cloudy with partial clearing
developing during the evening but may end up taking until Thursday.
Warming trend resumes on Thursday with highs in the low to mid
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very warm but wet period setting up for the extended period.
Models continue to move a low pressure system across the area Friday
then exiting the area Friday night.  Models have been consistent
with this feature so will bump pops up to likely.   Models differ on
the timing somewhat...so may see a few lingering showers in the
extreme east Saturday morning.  But by afternoon everyone should be
high and dry with highs in the 45 to 50 degree range.   More rain on
tap late Sunday through Monday as upper level low develops and
drifts slowly across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Warm sector that has spread into northern Ohio has made ceiling
forecast very challenging. At this point the IFR conditions will
mainly be with the convection that will move west to east across
the region through 12z. Did not mention any thunder in the TAF`s
but it may occur. In the wake of the convection ceilings will
attempt to lift to low end vfr but visibilities may remain under 5
miles. Cold front will cross the area with another round of
showers late morning into early afternoon. Again a few rumbles of
thunder may be possible. As winds shift to the west in the wake
of the front they will become gusty. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots will
be possible.

We will need to monitor some 40+ knot winds at 2000 feet around
12z. Later shifts will need to monitor this and determine if we
will need some low level wind shear in the TAF`s.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday night into early WEdnesday then again on
Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Light Southeast flow will turn to the south early Tuesday as a warm
front lifts across the lake.  Winds turn to the Southwest by
tomorrow evening as a cold front moves across the lake.  Winds
increase to 10 to 15 knots Tuesday night and will continue through
Wednesday night.  Light and variable winds are expected Thursday
night into Friday as high pressure builds back over the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Mottice
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...DJB



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