Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 180329
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1029 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS
LAKE ERIE AS IT MOVES EAST SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH SATURDAY WHILE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO ADJUST THE WORDING TO FLURRIES FOR THE AREAS WEST OF
CLEVELAND THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

S/W WITH STRONG VORT AXIS APPEARS TO BR MOVING ACROSS SNOWBELT AS
BACKEDGE OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW NOW APPROACHING CLE METRO
AREA. SOME DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS SE INTO THE SNOWBELT BEHIND THE S/W
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION OF CONSEQUENCE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE
SNOWBELT WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY DECENT ACCUMULATION IN ERIE
COUNTY PA WHERE INLAND AREAS COULD GET SEVERAL INCHES. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE 20S...GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
UPSTREAM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERAL RIPPLES ARE PROGGED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH.
THE FIRST BATCH OF OVER RUNNING IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT. THERE IS ALSO A FAIR CHANCE THAT A
LITTLE SYNOPTIC UPWARD MOTION MIGHT KICK OFF SOME LIGHT LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT.

THE NEXT WAVE IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BUT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...THE BOUNDARY FLOW LOOKS TO BE DRY
NORTHEAST WHICH MAY BE HARD TO OVER COME. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING LIGHTER AND FARTHER SOUTH. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
WORST WOULD BE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OR A FEW FLURRIES.

HIGHS IN THE 30S EACH DAY. LOWS IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGES COMING TO THE FORECAST OVER THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
EXTENDED MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MAJOR WINTER STORM
COULD AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA FOR CHRISTMAS.

NEARLY ZONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND A VIGOROUS TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY MORNING.  AS THIS TAKES PLACE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND ANOTHER CENTER OVER IOWA BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE LOWS WILL MERGE OVER THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY
REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DEEP INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
AND BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS WILL CAUSE A BIG BOMB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSITION INTO AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND LIFT SLOWLY NORTH AND BECOME STACKED OVER THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE LOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING...ARCTIC AIR WILL
CHANGE ANY RAIN OVER TO SNOW. SO...IF ALL GOES AS EXPECTED IN THE
MODELS...WE COULD SEE A WHITE CHRISTMAS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA.  ONE PROBLEM THAT WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE VERY
STRONG GRADIENT MEANING WINDS COULD BE VERY GUSTY AS THE STORM
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE REGION. SO...ANY CHRISTMAS TRAVELERS SHOULD
DEFINITELY STAY UP ON THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW OVER MICHIGAN WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS COLDER AIR WILL FLOW IN AND WITH AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE THIS EVENING AND AS THE FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST CLE
AND YNG MAY GET SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES IN SNOW SHOWERS. THIS IS A
QUICK SHOT AS THE AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AND WARM UP LATE
TONIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD LINGER ESPECIALLY THURSDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE TRYING TO INDICATE
THAT SOME POCKETS OF DECREASING CLOUDS MAY OCCUR OVER NW OH
TONIGHT. THIS IS POSSIBLE LOOKING AT SATELLITE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS. EVEN IF IT DOES HAPPEN IT WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS
AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AGAIN.

A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND THE
CLOUDS MAY START TO LIFT AND DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
MORE NON VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LET THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRE ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE.
THE WINDS WERE IN THE PROCESS OF DECREASING. CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS EVENING IN THE
WEST AND OVER THE REST OF THE LAKE DURING THE NIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING WAVES TO SUBSIDE AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE THE BIG STORM. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATING A POSSIBLE MAJOR
STORM WILL AFFECT THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GALE TO
STORM FORCE WINDS MAY BE A PROBLEM BY MID WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KIELTYKA/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY






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