Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 012348
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
748 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES FROM MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA ON WEDNESDAY AND PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG A LINE
FORM FROM NEAR DELAWARE TO CANTON. THUS FAR WE HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY
REPORTS OF HAIL BUT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY EXIT
TO THE SOUTH THROUGH 5 PM.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER INDIANA WILL SLIDE EAST ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO TONIGHT. LIFT WILL BE
ENHANCED AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
IOWA SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER ROUND OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA...REACHING NW OHIO BY
10 PM AND EXITING TO THE EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS WILL
RECEIVE AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY UP TO A HALF
INCH. HAVE ADDED AN ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH
A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY BUT AMPLE MOISTURE AND LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE LAKE
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE LOWER 50S WITH CLOSE TO 60 TOWARDS
CENTRAL OHIO. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE LAKE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR MORE SUN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S ALONG THE
NORTHEAST LAKESHORE.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET DIVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BUT SHOULD
BE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY FOR HIGHS TO STILL BE CLOSE TO 60. SHOWERS
WILL FILL IN WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES WITH A -26C COLD POOL AT 500MB.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TRENDS IN THE EXTENDED REMAIN THE SAME.   LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY ENDING DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND.   BOTH MODELS PUSH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS FAR OUT WILL ONLY GO WITH CHANCE POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE EAST ALONG A FRONT THAT IS
NEARLY STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND SHOWERS WILL RETURN
TONIGHT. IFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST OR DEVELOP. IFR CEILINGS WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON THEN CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS LINGERING ACROSS NE OH/NW PA MONDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND NON-VFR LIKELY
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT N-NE FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO.  THIS WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.  WINDS LIGHTEN DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS LOW MOVES EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT.  MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PUSHING THE
NEXT FRONT THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...DJB



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