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000
FXUS61 KCLE 100256
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1056 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY AND BE LOCATED NEAR NEW YORK CITY BY
SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE TWO FRONTS WILL CONVERGE ON THE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON THE LAKE. UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS. SOME THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME EXPECTING IT TO
STAY OVER THE WATER...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

COLD FRONT CONTINUING TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS ON THE DECREASE. SOME TROFINESS AND RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE
JET MAY KEEP SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS GOING TO AROUND MIDNIGHT MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AND WITH THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE AREA
SOME CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER. THE HRRR MODEL TRIES TO DEVELOP SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE LAKE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THIS MAY OCCUR BECAUSE OF
THE WARM LAKE AND SOME CONVERGENCE. MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE LOWS. IF THE CLOUDS STAY PATCHY TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DROP WITH THE LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW ONE LAST SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE
TROUGH ON THURSDAY MORNING. I SUPPOSE A SHOWER COULD SNEAK OFF THE
LAKE ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA IN THE MORNING OR MIDDAY OTHERWISE
THE DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WIN OUT. HIGHS IN THE 70S AGAIN.

SUNNY FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW
CUMULUS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. HIGHS GENERALLY MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.

MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HOLDING OFF ON THE SHOWERS FOR SATURDAY WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE SURFACE HIGH WILL JUST BE TO THE EAST AND
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LAYERS. CANNOT RULE
OUT A WARM ADVECTION SHOWER GETTING INTO NW OHIO. DEWPOINTS WILL
START TO INCREASE BUT WILL LIKELY NOT GET INTO THE UNCOMFORTABLE
RANGE YET. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A SWATCH OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SPILLING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WE MAY NEED TO GO WITH
HIGHER POPS BUT STILL NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ABOUT THE TIMING. IF
THERE IS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND IT MISSES THE AREA OR MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA VERY QUICKLY THEN WE END UP WITH JUST A FEW
SHOWERS. WILL JUST KEEP IT A CHANCE FOR NOW. SHOULD BE MORE HUMID
BY SUNDAY BUT TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND GO FOR HIGHS
AROUND 80. COULD REACH THE LOWER/MID 80S WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND IT
COULD STAY IN THE 70S WITH ENOUGH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A PROMINENT TROUGH
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT COMES
ACROSS MONDAY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE SHOWERS THAT
POP UP WITH SECONDARY TROUGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT QUESTION
WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND. IF H8 TEMPS GET BELOW 8C
OR SO AND WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THE LAKE MAY HELP WITH
THAT MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AND BY MID WEEK
TEMPS WILL BE ON EITHER SIDE OF 70 FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MESO LOW BETWEEN FDY AND MFD. AHEAD OF THE
LOW WINDS TURN TO THE S-SE...THEN BEHIND THE LOW WINDS TURN TO THE
N-NW. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AS
LOW MOVES EAST OF AREA.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
IN THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
ONE LAST TROUGH TO CROSS THE LAKE EARLY THIS EVENING THEN HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY. SO LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TONIGHT. THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND
A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE
FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
LAKE ON MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...OUDEMAN