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000
FXUS61 KCLE 251855
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
255 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE VIRGINIA COAST
BY TUESDAY AND STALL THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SETUP WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PATCHY FROST OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE AREA SO FROST HEADLINES WILL BE OUT AGAIN AS
GUIDANCE LOWS (MET) APPEAR TOO WARM. SOME CIRRUS MAY BE PRESENT BUT
DON`T THINK THIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD AND THICK ENOUGH TO PREVENT
FROST IN THE EAST HALF.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE SUN
WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 60S IN THE FAR NE TO UPPER 60S IN THE SW. THE
INLAND EAST WILL PROBABLY SEE ANOTHER THREAT FOR PATCHY FROST SUN
NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S THERE. THE REST OF THE CWA
SHOULD SEE WARMER LOWS AND SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FROST.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE AND WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE THE ONLY WORTHWHILE CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE WORK
WEEK. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CENTERED ON MON NIGHT AND
TUE. SEE ONLY AN ISOLATED THREAT BY WED AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
AND THE WARM FRONT PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS MOVES WELL NE OF THE
AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR COULD CAUSE
SOME OF THE STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE SO THE
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

HIGH TEMPS BY WED WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARMING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED. WITH THE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION COULD OCCUR...AT THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO FORECAST IT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME QUESTION HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START SATURDAY NIGHT...GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DRY AND VFR FOR THE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA. SOME PATCHY CUMULUS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIRRUS THROUGH THIS EVENING
MAINLY OVER NORTHWEST OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX OVER ILLINOIS THAT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE QUESTION FOR
TONIGHT IS WILL SOME FOG FORM. AREAS OF MVFR BR WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH A THREAT FOR SOME FOG AT CAK...YNG AND MFD WITH QUICK
DISSIPATION SUNDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF MVFR BR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NON VFR
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE WAS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD AND EXPAND ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME A MAINLY ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. SOME CONCERN
THAT THE WINDS COULD PICK UP ENOUGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 3 TO 5 FEET.
AT THIS TIME THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS SHORT SO THE FEELING AFTER
COORDINATION WITH BUF THAT 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES SHOULD HANDLE IT.
OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY WAVES SHOULD BE 3
FEET OR LESS.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST MONDAY NIGHT A SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LAKE AND NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ010>013-020>022-029>033-038-047-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ014-023.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA