Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 151357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
957 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT INTO OHIO TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEAKEN...THEN BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER HIGH THAT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA INTO THE EASTERN LAKES THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT ON TRACK TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
TODAY THRU 06Z TONIGHT. A VIGOROUS S/W TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE
DECENT UPPER FORCING TO ACT ON THE POOLED MOISTURE SO THAT
MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE CWA SEES MEASURABLE RAIN...WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS GENERALLY OVER THE NE WHERE THE STRONGER DYNAMICS
WILL OCCUR. THINK QPF WILL RANGE FROM AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH IN
THE FAR SW TO A HALF AN INCH IN THE NE. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE IN THE SOUTH BUT GENERALLY ONLY LOOKING FOR SHRA.

TODAYS HIGHS STILL ON TRACK ALTHOUGH MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
HOURLY TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING IN THIS
MID MORNING UPDATE. HIGHS STILL EXPECTED IN A 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE FOR MOST PLACES. THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP LOWS
TONIGHT A LITTLE WARMER...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE QUESTION TUE IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY LAKE EFFECT SHRA AS
MOISTURE AT 850 MB AND BELOW IS SHOWN TO BE STILL HANGING OVER THE
AREA. WILL KEEP SMALL CHC FOR SHRA GOING IN THE NE ON TUE AND ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A SPRINKLE COULD OCCUR NEAR ERI TUE
NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SO TUE AND
TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS TUE EVE AS THE
DAYTIME CU FIELD DISSIPATES.

YET ANOTHER REINFORCING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP
ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT BUT
WITH SOME ADDED LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING THEN RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THU
NIGHT.

TEMPS WON`T SHOW TOO MUCH DAILY CHANGE TUE THRU THU BUT WED SHOULD
BE THE WARMEST DAY AS WINDS BACK BRIEFLY TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WED NIGHT. TEMPS WED WILL BE RELATIVELY TOASTY WITH HIGHS
65 TO 70 FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THE COLDER NIGHT SHOULD BE TUE NIGHT
AND THU NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY 40 TO 45. SOME INLAND SPOTS IN THE
EAST AND AROUND MFD COULD SEE SOME UPPER 30S IF CLOUDS ARE FEW AND
WINDS CALM DURING THE LATTER PARTS OF THESE NIGHT...WHICH IS HIGHLY
POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OVERALL EXTENDED PATTERN SHAPING UP TO START OUT AS ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS
TREND WILL CHANGE FAIRLY RAPIDLY BY THE WEEKEND AS YET ANOTHER DEEP
DIGGING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES BY SUNDAY EVENING AND MONDAY. AFTER BRIEF WARMUP LEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND...DEEP SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR ALBERTA
AND THEN TRACK EAST INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WHERE IT WILL
INTENSIFY. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY USHERING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF FALL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WILL BUMP UP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA A FEW DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED. ADJUSTED TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT FOR EARLIER ONSET AND THEN ENDING IN
THE WEST ON SUNDAY EVENING. WILL ADD MENTION OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN
SHOWERS GOING INTO SUNDAY EVENING IN THE EAST AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEGINS TO TAKE PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO LOWER IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONT AS WELL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. CEILINGS WILL
DROP TO MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TO MVFR
LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE RAIN AND MIST. FURTHER DECREASE IN
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AS LOW
STRATUS CLOUD DECK DEVELOPS IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WARM LAKE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION POST FRONT IN THE
WEST AND THEN WESTERLY IN THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION AND THEN NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EXPECTING WINDS TO GO LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
IN THE EAST AND 5 KNOTS OR LESS IN THE WEST. AS HIGH MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST...FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND INCREASES TO AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING THEN FINALLY INCREASING OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME DIMINISHING OF THE WIND WILL TAKE
PLACE FRIDAY AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





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