Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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909
FXUS61 KCLE 100509
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1209 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. THE LOW WILL FORCE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE SOUTH OF
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SITUATION GENERALLY
PLAYING OUT AS EXPECTED. VORT MAX NOW MOVING INTO ERN LERI WHICH
WILL TAKE INCREASED UPWARD MOTION EAST AWAY FROM AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS LEAVING MAKE ENHANCEMENT TO BE THE MAIN FORCING MECHANISM
FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS. AFTER 10 PM EXPECT THE SNOWBELT TO STILL SEE
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO LOCALLY 4 INCHES WITH LESS THAN AN INCH FOR AREAS
BORDERING THE SNOWBELT AND ONLY A DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS FOR OTHER
AREAS.

COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE A BIT MORE ROBUST TONIGHT. AS CLOUD COVER
PERSISTS THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING TOO COLD WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO STOP IN A RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS SW TO LOWER 20S NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST
WILL LAG AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BACK OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN DEEP WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN
SLOWLY BEGIN TO SEE SOME DRYING ALOFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE BEST SNOW GROWTH WILL COINCIDE WITH THE BEST
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY
SETUP SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW BANDS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

MEAN WIND FLOW WILL SUPPORT NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BANDS ACROSS THE
PRIMARY SNOWBELT REGION. MEAN WINDS OVER THE LAKE AROUND 25 KNOTS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR LONG ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR THE AIR PARCELS OVER
THE LAKE TO SUPPORT THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

AS MOISTURE STREAMS INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE AND FROM A LAKE HURON
FETCH...HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO
12 INCHES BY THE TIME THIS IS OVER.

ONE QUESTION MARK STILL REMAINS IS HOW LONG EACH OF THE BANDS WILL
REMAIN STATIONARY TO ALLOW FOR RAPID ACCUMULATING SNOW. SOME
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BANDS WILL WAVER AT TIMES LIMITING SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN ANY GIVEN LOCATION AND BROADCAST THE SNOW OVER A
WIDER AREA.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE SHEAR TO DEVELOP WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING
AND THEN GOING BACK TO A MORE LAMINAR FLOW WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TO DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY BECOMES EXTREME IN THE COLDER AIR OVER THE
LAKE.

SO...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR GEAUGA...INLAND
ASHTABULA...INLAND ERIE PENNSYLVANIA...AND CRAWFORD PENNSYLVANIA
COUNTIES STARTING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR
LAKE...NORTHERN ASHTABULA...AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES. CUYAHOGA AND
TRUMBULL COUNTIES ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR WHETHER THEY WILL NEED A
WARNING OR AN ADVISORY. SO FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A
HEADLINE FOR THESE TWO AREAS.

OTHERWISE...GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE MEAN RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA.

OTHER MAIN ISSUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS THE GRADUAL
LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES
PLACE...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HIGHS
WILL BE LUCKY TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS IN SOME PLACES. MUCH COLDER
AIR ON THE WAY FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON FRIDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING UPPER LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE JAMES BAY/QUEBEC AREA WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
IN THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. CLOSER TO HOME LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
LAKES TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WILL HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE SNOWBELT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT FOR LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AS THE ARCTIC AIR MOVES IN. SATURDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE SNOWBELT WITH 850MB TEMPS A CHILLY
-24 TO -28C SO WILL CONTINUE WITH AT LEAST LIKELY POPS. SUNDAY
THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SNOWBELT GIVEN THAT FLOW...AT LEAST EARLY IN THE DAY WILL LIKELY
STILL BE FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. MONDAY THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AS
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM SO WOULD EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS.
CONTINUED MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY ALTHOUGH BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WITH LITTLE FORCING AT THIS POINT SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TURN VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.  GETTING BACK INTO THE 30S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST. WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NE OHIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGH 9-10Z. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AT ERI BEFORE DECREASING WEDNESDAY MORNING. ESLEWHERE
EXPECT TO SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS STARTING TO PICK BACK UP
AFTER 14Z WITH AN UPTICK IN INTENSITY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR WITH IFR POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS. WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AT
TOL/FDY/ERI.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK IN SNOW AND LOWER
CEILINGS AS A SERIES OF COLD FRONT WITH SNOW SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. VFR MOST LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A
RIDGE BUILDS IN BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES.

&&

.MARINE...
NO GALES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BIGGEST THREAT WOULD BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING SPRAY.  COULD SEE SOME FREEZING SPRAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY BUT A BETTER CHANCE WOULD LIKELY
BE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES PLUNGE AND WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE GENERALLY EXPECT A
WEST FLOW AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TURNING
NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 20 KNOTS
RANGE. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THURSDAY BEFORE TURNING BACK
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY WEST WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL
TURN NORTHWEST 25 TO 30 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
NORTHWEST SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ012-
     089.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ013-
     014.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ001.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ002-
     003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK



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