Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 201033
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
633 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the Ohio Valley and eastern
Great Lakes today. The high will move east of the area on
Monday. The next low will move northeast across the Great Lakes
Tuesday and take a cold front across the region Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Only issue is the patchy dense fog across the southeastern
counties. Otherwise forecast is on track with minimal changes to
reflect current trends.

Previous discussion...
Areas of fog across the southeastern portion of the county
warning area has been expanding in coverage. Will mention some
locally dense fog for a few locations.

High pressure will be in control of the region today. However as
it slides eastward through the day it will allow some moisture
at 850 mb to advect back into the area from the Central
Highlands southward into Central Ohio. A couple of the higher
resolution models are trying to generate some showers/thunder
within this area of moisture. While we do expect the increase in
moisture it is difficult to believe there will be enough lift
to produce any rain. So at this point we will keep a dry
forecast for today. The dry conditions will continue through
tonight but the low level moisture will continue to increase
into Monday. This increase in moisture should lead to more cloud
cover across the region. Thunderstorm chances will increase on
Monday with a couple areas to monitor. One area being some
convergence along a lake breeze boundary from east of Cleveland
into NW PA. The other area would approach NW Ohio from the west
with a weak piece of jet energy approaching along with increased
warm advection. The chances of seeing scattered convection
develop over Indiana and drift toward NW Ohio Monday
afternoon/evening seems like a decent possibility.

Temperatures today and Monday will be above seasonal averages.
Monday will be the warmest day of the near term with highs mid
80s to around 90. Becoming more humid tonight with lows in the
lower to mid 60s for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
With the warm and moist air continuing to flow into the area, have
bled the chance for precip into the northwest half of the area
Monday night. But the main focus will be on Tuesday/Tuesday evening
as a trough digs southeast across the Great Lakes and brings a
potentially well timed cold front to northern OH/nw PA.
Strong/severe storms a possibility.

Wednesday will begin a multi-day stretch of below normal
temperatures as another shortwave amplifies the trough and delays its
exit. Will go with highs in the lower and mid 70s. Somewhat
concerned with the cold air and trough aloft that there may be a few
showers. At this point will hold it with a silent 20 PoP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Will still be in the midst of the cool trough and in fact there is
indication that another lobe of energy will rotate through the base
of the trough. There is some timing differences between the
GFS/ECMWF, but again this could be enough to spark a few rouge
showers across the area. While waiting on better timing
consensus and moisture availability, will again hold with a
silent 20 PoP for most. Highs will be a little closer to 70
Thursday.

Will moderate temperatures and keep the forecast dry going into the
weekend with high pressure across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
High pressure will dominate the region today. Since winds will
be light we will need to monitor for some MVFR fog inland TAF
sites until shortly after sunrise. Especially KTOL, KCAK and
KYNG.

Otherwise it appears there will be an area of cumulus that
develops across across inland locations becoming scattered
from the central highlands southwestward into central Ohio.
A couple models indicate a few showers developing over the
Central Highlands late this afternoon around maximum heating.
This seems to be overdone in the models but something for later
shifts to monitor as we advect some low level moisture
northward on the west side of high pressure.

Winds will be light today but generally from the south and
southwest. The exception will be along the lakeshore with some
onshore flow developing. This will mainly impact KERI but may
drift inland toward KCLE.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely in scattered showers/tstms on Tuesday
and Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure across the upper Ohio Valley today and Monday will
provide for lighter winds on the lake with an afternoon shift to
onshore flow each day. Tuesday though an active cold front will
be approaching from the northwest. Southwest flow will increase
and the lake will be choppy. Waves will build enough by late
afternoon to be in need of a small craft advisory for at least
areas east of Avon Point. With the passage of the cold front
Tuesday evening, a good push of cold air advection takes place
and the choppy conditions will likely persist through the night.
The far east end may again be in need of a small craft advisory
Wednesday with the northwest flow. High pressure will then move
southeast across the Great Lakes Thursday with winds on Lake
Erie shifting around to the northeast.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Mullen
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Oudeman


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