Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 260527

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
127 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

High pressure will provide cool but fair weather for tonight. Low
pressure will track from near Chicago Wednesday evening to
Cleveland/Lake Erie by Thursday morning bringing a period of
showers to the area. High pressure builds overhead for Friday.


Expect lake effect clouds to hold on until the boundary layer
winds shift to the east Wednesday morning. So increased cloud
cover and bumped up overnight temps a degree or two in the east.

original discussion...
Far east snowbelt still experiencing a few light rain showers off
of the lake. This will continue into early to mid evening...but
after that winds will begin to veer as the surface high/ridge axis
positions itself over the area. Lake clouds will continue to drift
overhead...reaching into the Cleveland metro/north Central Ohio
this evening...following the shift in the low level steering flow.
Thin cirrus has overspread the area west of Toledo and Mansfield.
This will be the case through the night and will impact
temperatures depending on how thick it becomes before morning.
North winds will decrease and come around to the east and
northeast. There will likely be an area from near Norwalk and
Wooster and inland points east that will be very near the
freezing mark tonight.


Wednesday will be a mostly cloudy day as ample mid/high level
moisture streams overhead. Shortwave energy from the Rockies will
aid in the development of low pressure that will track across the
Central Plains...across northern Illinois and to northern Ohio by
Thursday morning. Models continue to paint some QPF into northwest
and northern OH as early as the morning hours with an initial push
of isentropic lift. Feel this may end up being virga or maybe a
sprinkle with a persistent east flow keeping the lowest levels
dry. Precip chances a bit higher toward Toledo. The focus of this
initial push lifts northward during the course of the day...while
the surface warm front will be settling in the vicinity. All
guidance keeps the easterly flow continuing into the
expect precip to start light. As low level jet increases and
surface flow swings around to the south...precip will begin in
earnest and locations will see a solid half in to possibly three
quarters of inch between Wednesday night and Thursday. Low track
is a bit further south...right across the shoreline and across the
eastern half of the lake...with the NAM being the outlier. As far
as temperatures go...expect a bit of a rise after a Wednesday
evening dip in temperatures and possibly another dip at precip
onset. Otherwise 12Z Thu temps likely a few degrees warmer than
00Z Thu.

Showers will continue across at least the central and eastern half
of the area Thursday morning...tapering to the west. Cold air
wraps in around keeping cloud cover and the chance of some lake
effect showers into Thursday night. Highs will struggle.

High pressure builds overhead Thursday night. Trend with next
system is further is discussed below in the long term
discussion. With this trend have removed the precip chances from
Friday and Friday night. Friday will still be cool...but return
flow begins Friday night.


The models have trended farther north with the surface low over the
weekend and if this is the case, we should cleanly break into the
warm sector on Saturday. Cannot rule out the chance that showers
will still brush the area, especially early, across northeast OH
and northwest PA.

The ECMWF continues to develop a wave on the front and is even slower
than some of the other models with a frontal passage on Sunday. The
front could certainly take until Sunday but want to mention a
chance of showers starting Saturday night continuing Sunday with
the front pushing across the area.

Temperatures are tricky as well. Raised the temperature forecast for
Saturday and Saturday night and may still not be warm enough. Sunday
may stay warm if the front is slower but will not go as warm as it
could be given the uncertainty. Highs generally 65 to around 70
Saturday and 60s on Sunday.

The ECMWF remains cold by Monday with 850 mb temperatures down
toward zero while the GFS has backed off and just delivers a
glancing shot of cold. Will compromise and forecast highs near

The next cold front could arrive on Tuesday but it appears to be a
relatively weak pacific front. Will not carry more than a "slight
chance" of showers for the time being.


.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
High clouds beginning to spread east across the area at this time.
Some residual lake effect clouds still present at Cleveland and
Erie. Low pressure will move east across the area and spread some
light rain across the region. Best chance so far appears to be
across the northern tier TAF sites during this forecast period.
Otherwise, southern areas will remain VFR with a chance for some
rain. MVFR expected across the north moving from west to east
during the afternoon and evening. Winds will be generally east
southeast at around 8 knots but stronger at 15 to 25 knots toward
evening at Erie.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Thursday and again on Saturday.


Winds will begin to veer on Lake Erie from northwest to northeast
tonight and east on Wednesday. The winds should pick up
considerably late in the day Wednesday and continue to veer
southeast Wednesday night. A small craft advisory will likely be
needed by Wednesday night east of the islands.

There is some uncertainty in the exact track of the surface
low early Thursday so there is uncertainty on the exact wind and
waves for a while late Wednesday night and early Thursday.
Regardless of the track of the low, winds will pick up behind
the system on Thursday and small craft advisories will be
needed again into Thursday night. High pressure is expected to build
in on Friday.

The long range computer models have not been consistent with the
storm coming up this weekend. Not much confidence in the wind
direction and wave height forecast but it does look as though it
will be a windy storm on Lake Erie. Small craft advisories will
likely be needed especially by Saturday night and Sunday.




SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.