Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 131808
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
108 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A couple more clipper storm systems will impact the region
through the remainder of the week. One arriving this afternoon
into tonight and another on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Light snow is now spreading east across the area and will
continue to do so through the next several hours. First wave of
snow will allow for a break in the action for a couple hours and
the area of snow will fill in quickly as low pressure settles in
over the area. Snow will get support from the surface low and
the upper level shortwave diving southeast across the local
area. Visibilities will be reduced to between 1/2 and 3/4 of a
mile in the heavier snow. Still looking at the heavier snow to
occur over the eastern third of the area in the northeast side
of the low pressure track. Made some minor adjustments to
temperatures, cloud cover, and timing of precipitation.

Previous Discussion...
Have already cancelled the lake effect snow headlines across NE
Ohio. Still will see some snow showers across NE Ohio but any
additional accumulations will only be an inch or two. However
had to leave the lake effect snow headlines going across NW PA
with a narrow significant band originating off of Lake Huron
impacting portions of Erie county into Western NY. Believe most
locations will only see an inch or two but cant completely rule
out up to 7 inches before it tapers off by early afternoon.
Adjustments will need to be made to these headlines across NW PA
with the next clipper arriving tonight.

This next clipper will begin to impact the region this
afternoon and continue into tonight. This storm seems to be
rather potent with a decent amount of moisture to lift. It
appears that all of the County Warning Area (CWA) will see snow.
Current model trends keep the heavier snow near and north of a
line from Bowling Green to Canton. This area has the potential
of seeing 4 to 6 inches of snow. There is a possibility that
some heavier bands of snow may develop near and north of the low
as it tracks across NE OH. If these bands develop a warning may
be needed.

Some lake effect snow will once again develop in the wake of
the clipper at some point early Thursday morning. Additional
accumulations will occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Will have a break from the snow Thursday night as high pressure
builds into the Ohio Valley. The high slides east and moves off
the East Coast Friday, allowing another clipper system to track
a. across Northern lake Huron with the trailing front sagging
across the northern portion of the forecast area. Models not in
good agreement on how far south the boundary sags and on
snowfall. But with west flow behind the front and 850mb temps of
-12 best bet for light snow accumulations will be across the
snowbelt.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Boundary lifts north Saturday night taking snow with it and
ushering in warmer conditions for Sunday. Temps on Sunday will
be seasonal. Some locations could see 40 degrees if we get some
sun. Models differ on timing of next system. The ECMWF brings it
in Sunday morning while GFS holds off until the afternoon. For
now leaning toward the slower...and warmer GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Light snow will continue to spread east across the area lowering
visibilities down to 3/4 of a mile at times with the initial
area of snow. There will be a brief break in the snow activity
as area of snow lifts east and then low pressure settles into
northern Ohio. The snow will expand fairly quickly over the
forecast area as upper level support enhances the snowfall
during the late afternoon and early evening. Ceilings will drop
to MVFR category with brief IFR category overnight. We should
see snow exiting area from west to east late tonight into
tomorrow morning going back to VFR. Lake effect will develop
again tomorrow in the wake of the low pressure system.

OUTLOOK...MVFR possible Friday and Friday night across the area
and again Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Dropped Gale Warning as the winds have diminished to 30 knots. Small
craft advisory in effect until 3 PM.  The NW winds to 30 knots will
back to the SW and diminish to 10 to 15 knots by late afternoon.
However choppy conditions on the lake tonight as Winds will turn to
the N at 10 to 20 knots overnight as a low pressure system tracks
across NRN OH. Winds will gradually diminish Thursday as high
pressure nudges into the Ohio Valley.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for
     OHZ010>014-020>023-029>033-089.
     Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for OHZ003-
     006>009-018-019.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for PAZ001.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until midnight EST tonight for PAZ002-
     003.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
     LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Mullen
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...DJB



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