Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 051416
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
916 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY. THE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD THIS WEEKEND AS
DISTURBANCES AND WEAK COLD FRONTS PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND OHIO
VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STILL LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER THE SE FOR A
WHILE LONGER TO POSSIBLY SEED OUT A FEW FLURRIES. NEXT ISSUE IS
WHETHER SHARP UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SE INTO THE SNOWBELT THIS EVE
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO TRIGGER SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. OFFSETTING THE UPPER FORCING IS THAT THE LOWER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRY AND THE RIDGE BUILDING IN WILL BE PROVIDING
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE. WILL ONLY ADD MENTION OF A FEW FLURRIES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY. WITH COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CLOUD
COVER LINGERING WELL INTO THE DAY...TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE.
EXPECT MOST PLACES WILL JUST HOLD NEARLY STEADY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND WINDS THAT
WILL BE DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN WILL HAVE A NIGHT WITH MANY
LOCATIONS GETTING BELOW ZERO AND LIKELY BREAKING MORE DAILY
RECORDS. BY MORNING WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST TO OUR SOUTH
ANY LIGHT WIND WILL BE SOUTHERLY AND SO HAVE NOT ALLOWED FOR
CLE/MFD AND POINTS WEST TO GET TOO FAR BELOW ZERO. WHERE THE WIND
REMAINS CALM IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST...HAVE
BROUGHT THEM DOWN TO 5 OR 8 DEGREES BELOW ZERO. THE WIND WILL BE
TOO LIGHT FOR ANY WIND CHILL ADVISORIES.

QUIET AGAIN FRIDAY. WILL GET SOME WARMING AND HIGHS WILL GET TO
NEAR 20/LOWER 20S LATE IN THE DAY. THAT PUSH OF RELATIVELY WARM
AIR CONTINUES FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A CLIPPER COMING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. LIGHT SNOW CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF THIS PRIMARILY
ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO/NW PA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
TO SOME EXTENT SUNDAY IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE REACHING
NEAR THE FREEZING MARK BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH 20S AT NIGHT.
A WET INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WITH SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE. AT THIS TIME THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PROBABLY BEYOND...NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED. THE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ARE VARIABLE. THEY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NW
OHIO TO 2 TO 6 INCHES OVER NE OH AND NW PA. EVEN WITH JUST SOME SNOW
MELT THE ICE WILL START TO BREAKUP AND MOVE ON MANY RIVERS AND
STREAMS. SOME ICE JAMS MAY FORM. SINCE THE WARMUP WILL NOT BE
EXTREME MOST ICE JAMS THAT FORM MAY NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. THIS
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED.

IN THE MEANTIME...SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION COULD BE OCCURRING ON
MONDAY ESPECIALLY OVER NE OH AND NW PA AS A WEAK FRONT MOVE THROUGH.
AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND
THEN THE HIGH STARTS MOVING TOWARD THE SE ON WEDNESDAY. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE AND LOCAL SCHEMES FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WAS FLOATING AROUND AND MORE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW TODAY AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE DROPS TO
-20C. OTHERWISE THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE DECREASING TODAY.

TONIGHT THE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST
AND THAT SHOULD HELP THE CLOUDS TO DECREASE ALONG WITH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND THE FROZEN LAKE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD ADVECTION WERE DECREASING. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND THEN THE RIDGE
WILL SINK SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS AFFECT THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND AND ON MONDAY. ON SUNDAY IN THE COLD ADVECTION THE
SUSTAINED WINDS COULD BE IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND THAT WILL
HELP THE WINDS DECREASE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA








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