Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 231743
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
143 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TONIGHT...WITH A RIDGE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK.  NO BIG CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...CIRRUS HAS BEEN THINNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE TO START THE DAY. THICKER AREA OF CLOUDS NEAR 15K FEET
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. THESE MAY CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES BUT SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES TO FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WITH
THE EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. FROST WILL END UP BEING VERY PATCHY
FROM CUYAHOGA AND LORAIN SOUTH TO HOLMES COUNTY BUT HAVE SEEN A
FEW MESONET SITES DIP INTO THE 30S SO WILL HOLD ONTO THE
HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER TO THE EAST IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BY 8AM.

HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY...WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS OUT OF DTX/PBZ SHOWED A
VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH PW VALUES NEAR .30 INCH. LOW LEVELS
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME DEGREE OF HIGH CLOUD
SPREADING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO THIN AS
THEY MOVE IN WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...WITH GENERALLY MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A COOL START TO THE DAY...LATE
MAY SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO 64-75 DEGREE RANGE.
LOCATIONS IN NE OH/NW PA NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL REMAIN THE COOLEST WITH
LAKE BREEZES DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT EASTERN AREAS WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SHOULD RADIATE WELL. PORTIONS OF NW PA WILL DIP
BELOW 40 DEGREES AGAIN TONIGHT AND PATCHES OF FROST MAY DEVELOP IN A
FEW OF THE COOLER LOCATIONS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME AND THINK THERE IS JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES...MAINLY FOR NW OHIO. ALTHOUGH A DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BACKED OFF ON POPS AND
REMOVED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER FROM THE FORECAST. EXPECTING PRECIP
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND EARLY THEN HELD ONTO A LOW 20
POP FOR LATE THAT NIGHT AS SOME MOISTURE STARTS TO SNEAK IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY ON MEMORIAL DAY BEFORE THE FIRST PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
SPREAD EAST INTO THE EVENING. KEPT POPS AT 50 PERCENT BUT THESE
MAY NEED TO BE RAISED IF COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING HIGHER.

CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
GULF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WERE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND WILL DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF SHOWERS.
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PLAINS TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE
WESTERN LAKES REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BUT A LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
TIMING ANY BETTER. PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE PATTERN LATE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT DOES
SEEM TO DRIFT INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
STALLS THE WEAKENING FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE
TROUGH ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. MY GUESS IS
THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO. OBVIOUSLY IT IS A LITTLE TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN THAT TYPE OF DETAIL AND IF THE STALLED FRONT IS IN THE
VICINITY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
THURSDAY FORECAST.

THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH
SLIDES ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES AND THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD
TAPER OFF.

TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SINCE THE AMOUNT OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWER/STORMS COULD KEEP THE LID ON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
WILL FORECAST UPPER 70S/AROUND 80. BY FRIDAY WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
START BUILDING THE HEAT A BIT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MID
80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE LOCAL WEATHER WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE LAKE BREEZE HAS SWITCHED ON AT KERI...AND IS ATTEMPTING TO
AT KCLE WHERE THE WIND HAS BECOME VARIABLE. AT 17Z THE WIND BEGAN
BLOWING FROM THE NORTH AT BURKE LAKEFRONT...WHICH IS GENERALLY A
GOOD INDICATOR THAT KCLE WILL EXPERIENCE A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE LAKE BREEZE MAY HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED IN THE CLETAF.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDING JUST EAST OF LAKE ERIE TODAY. WITH A
LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THE WIND WILL BE DOMINATED BY OFFSHORE AND
ONSHORE FLOW TODAY. THE EAST SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH BY THE END OF THE DAY FOR A LITTLE WAVE ACTION ON THE WESTERN
BASIN BUT WAVES SHOULD PROBABLY STAY UNDER 2 FEET. THE FLOW WILL
VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND LIGHT SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MID WEEK HIGH. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR A RATHER STABLE MARINE ENVIRONMENT AND WIND
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS ALTHOUGH MARINERS WILL HAVE
TO WATCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS STARTING ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KOSARIK






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