Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 180505
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
105 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST
INTO QUEBEC...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA BEHIND THE
FRONT...SHIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE TOL AREA BY DAYBREAK. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 7-10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN LAST NIGHT AND WENT WITH VALUES CLOSER TO THE RAW GFS/ECMWF
THAT ARE 3-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS AND
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL JUST
BE ON THE TOLEDO DOORSTEP BY 12Z SO WILL JUST START TO RAMP UP CHC
POPS 10Z THRU 12Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH
CHANCES OF A FEW SHOWERS. MOISTURE AND FORCING ARE BOTH LIMITED SO
POPS WILL RANGE FROM 40-50 PERCENT BUT EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE FAIRLY
BRIEF IN NATURE. THE AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT VERY COLD SO THE
TEMPERATURE DROP WILL BE MINIMAL EXCEPT NEAR LAKE ERIE WHERE THE
FLOW WILL SHIFT OFF THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL
DEGREES. HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE LOW 60S FOR MOST INLAND
AREAS...UPPER 50S ALONG THE NE LAKESHORE.

COLD ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO
THE NORTH AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES. SKIES WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO
THE MID 30S AND UPPER 30S.

AFTER A COOL START ON SATURDAY...THE WEATHER WILL MAKE A RECOVERY TO
NICE SPRING WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES COOLEST NEAR LAKE ERIE WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS OFF THE LAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE TO NEAR 60 IN CENTRAL OHIO. THE WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT AND FLOW SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WE COULD START TO SEE SOME CIRRUS SPREADING IN
FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES
TO MAKE A RUN AT THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE COULD BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD TAKE UNTIL
MID-AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOMEWHAT SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH FAIR AGREEMENT IN TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
BUT THE EURO HAS A DEEPER TROUGH WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON WED.  HAVE USED THE EURO
GUIDANCE WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FROSTY CONDITIONS AWAY FROM
THE LAKE ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
NOW NEAR A APN TO ORD TO STL LINE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
FRONT MOISTURE STARVED...EXPECT ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS SO ONLY
PLACED SOME VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS AS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER TO AROUND 4000 FEET WITH THE SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AND TO THE N-NE OVERNIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO REAL HAZARDS ON THE LAKE TODAY OTHER THAN THE GUSTY WIND AND SOME
RESIDUAL ICE IN THE EASTERN BASIN. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS WEST TO EAST
NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN SHORE OF LAKE ERIE AT THIS HOUR.
NORTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS THE LAKE...THE FLOW IS GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST....GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. TONIGHT THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE LAKE AND THE FLOW WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH. LATE FRIDAY MORNING/EARLY SATURDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE LAKE AND DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO. BEHIND THE
FRONT THE WIND WILL VEER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN AND MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY. BY LATE SUNDAY THE WIND WILL
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH AGAIN AND PERSIST UNTIL THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE
OCCURS LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...MAYERS






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