Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 212216

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
616 PM EDT Sun May 21 2017

Low pressure over the northern Great Lakes will drift across
eastern Canada through Monday. The associated cold front will
slide across the area this evening and tonight. High pressure
will cross the Ohio Valley Monday and move to the east coast on
Tuesday. The next storm system will slowly move from the
Mississippi Valley across the Great Lakes Wednesday into


Convection continues to struggle out ahead of the cold front.
Best cells have been across Upper Sandusky/Bucyrus area but this
is where the thinnest clouds and the best instability is. Will
monitor primarily for gusty winds. Made minor tweaks to the
forecast with this early evening update...for the most part
incorporating the latest short term hi-res guidance in timing
and coverage.

Previous discussion...The activity ahead of the cold front has
struggled a bit this afternoon although a slight jet across the
central Great Lakes will swing across northwest Ohio this
evening and the showers/storms should increase across NW OH. I
don`t think we can eliminate the threat of showers and
thunderstorms from the forecast tonight until the front is east
and the front has been moving a little slower than progged. Will
gradually lower the pop overnight west to east but will keep a
chance across extreme NE OH well into the night and NW PA
essentially all night.

The air mass is on the cool side behind the front but the
breeze should stay up and with a well mixed atmosphere we should
not get overly cool. Lows tonight generally around 50 NW OH and
lower/mid 50s NE OH/NW PA.


High pressure at the surface will build in on Monday and it will be
a somewhat breezy and seasonably cool day. The majority of the wrap
around stratocumulus in the trough aloft will lift out across the
Great Lakes but a fair amount of cumulus/stratocumulus will develop.
Highs mostly in the 60s. Forecast lows will be a degree or two below
guidance Monday night based on the cool airmass and high pressure
almost overhead.

Some question as to how fast the next showers will arrive. Most of
the models keep a decent ridge wedged across the area on Tuesday. We
could get brushed by a wave on the slow moving front south and east
of the area rather than seeing anything from the west on Tuesday.
Will keep the forecast pop generally below 15. It will be the nicest
day of the work week with highs in the 70s.

Models are in good agreement with the next piece of energy closing
off over the plains and the closed low diving SSE. There is still
some disagreement on the location of the surface features on
Wednesday. The surface low will develop somewhere from near Lake
Michigan to Memphis. The forecast will not be impacted much at this
point. Will have showers becoming likely from west to east during
the day. Temperatures are tricky. It will be cool, in the 60s, where
the showers develop early. Highs in the lower/mid 70s where the rain
holds off. Will have the warmer forecast highs across NE OH and NW
PA where the showers may not arrive until afternoon.


Although models differ exact track and timing of slow moving low
pressure system...trend is to move the low across the lower lakes
Thursday.   Low tracks NE Thursday night as high pressure nudges
into the Upper Ohio valley.  After that the models diverge.  ECMWF
tracks a series of lows across the Lower lakes Saturday and again
Sunday. GFS tracks Saturday low much further south then moves the
second low across the Central Lakes Sunday night.   compromised but
leaned toward the ECMWF by keeping low chance pops Saturday and
again Sunday.


.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Rain showers over the Eastern half of the forecast area
associated with warm front...will move east of the area next
couple of hours. Narrow line of convection Ern IN associated
with cold front will move across the forecast area this evening.
Behind the front will be brief period of VFR in the dry slot
then MVFR conditions will develop overnight in the wrap around

South winds of 10 to 20 knots will veer to southwest to west
late today behind the front.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible again Tuesday night thru Thursday in
showers and TSRA.


Light south winds this evening...but it wont last.   Cold front will
move across the lake tonight and by morning choppy conditions with
west winds of 10 to 15 knots.   May approach small craft advisory
conditions for a period in the East.   Winds turn back to the south
Monday night as high pressure moves across the upper Ohio




NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
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