Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 212335
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
635 PM EST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure north of the Great Lakes will move east and drag a
cold front across the local area this evening. High pressure
will take control of the region on Wednesday and persist into
Thursday Night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front is now just west of the area and will move east
across the CWA late this afternoon and this evening. Expecting
light rain to move in from the west with and behind the front
with an eventual change to snow before ending outside of any
lake effect region. Not expecting much accum as most of the
precip should occur as rain or a mix. For the snow belt, BUFKIT
shows a fairly low inversion with this system and no good
sustained period of time when dendrites are favored so not
expecting much lake effect snow as well although given the cold
air over the lake would expect some post front enhancement. Will
have chance pops west and south and likely to categorical across
the snowbelt. Cold air moves in quickly as does the dry air so
am expecting most of the precip to be done by morning. Will
carry a chance pop in the morning and taper to a slight chance
for the afternoon. Will likely hold onto clouds much of the day
through however outside of the lake influence should be more
sun. Will continue dry and partly cloudy for Wednesday night as
high pressure weakens slightly over the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The passage of an
upper trough early Thursday will have enough moisture with it to
bring a decent amount of mid and high clouds across the area.
If it can generate precip it may brush the lake and possibly
northwest PA, but it looks unlikely. So, Thanksgiving will
largely be benign with southwest winds and temperatures reaching
into the upper 30s/lower 40s. High pressure builds across the
Ohio Valley for Friday clearing the clouds during the day time.
The next system is timed for the weekend. A decent push of warm
air on Friday will boost temperatures into the upper 40s/a few
50s and it remain dry until evening. Cold frontal timing looks
to be between late Friday night or early Saturday. Precipitation
coverage is still in question and have continued with a similar
forecast focusing the best chances across the lake and into
northeast OH/nw PA going into and through Saturday morning.
Precip type through mid afternoon Saturday will be rain.
Temperatures will struggle Saturday with the cold air advection
underway.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure pushing up the Ohio valley Sat night into Sun
night will cause lake effect snow showers to gradually taper off
from west to east so expect only some lingering flurries in NW
PA by Mon morning. Dry conditions should prevail for a brief
period then another approaching cold front will produce
increasing clouds Tue with a small chc for shra in the west by
the end of the day.

Temps will be below normal thru Mon then moderate closer to normal
by Tue.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
A surface cold front and it`s associated band of showers
continues to move over the west end of the area. The front will
be east of the area by midnight. Expect the showers to slowly
dissipate the next few hours then increase again toward midnight
over far eastern Ohio and NW PA. A change or mix with snow is
possible just about anywhere. Most locations will see no more
than 2 or 3 hours of precip. The exception to this will be
downwind of the lake where some light snow showers could
continue into Wednesday morning. Western area should become SCT
by morning. SW flow will become W right behind the front and
then NW a couple hours after that.

OUTLOOK...The next chance for non-VFR conditions will come
Saturday as another cold front moves through.

&&

.MARINE...
Current small craft advisory will hold as is. Western basin is set
to expire at 10p.  That may be cutting it close for the area just
east of the Islands to Vermilion. Otherwise the rest of the lake
goes until Wednesday afternoon. A cold front is set to cross the
lake this evening bringing the winds around to the northwest. High
pressure builds over the lake Wednesday. A weak front crosses
Thursday night, but with just enough wind, waves may reach 4 feet
across the east half of the nearshore waters. For the weekend a cold
front is expected to cross the lake sometime late Friday night or
Saturday with increasing southwest flow ahead of it and a shift to
west-southwest behind it. Another trough Saturday night will bring
the winds around to the northwest with cold air advection.  Small
craft advisories will likely be needed.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Oudeman



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