Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 190758
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN OHIO TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN TONIGHT. AS THE LOW
PROGRESSES SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THURSDAY IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN A FACTOR INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OHIO TODAY. LIFT
OVER THIS BOUNDARY...AFTERNOON HEATING AND INCREASING SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A 5H 40 KNOT JET WILL HELP TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SOUTHWARD INTO INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THEY MOVE TOWARD NW OHIO LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EASTERN AREAS WILL TAKE MOST OF
THE DAY TO MOISTEN UP SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MINIMAL.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS.
ACTUALLY IT WILL PROBABLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AT MOST
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING. BEYOND THAT IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE REGION WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT FOR THE RAIN TO REACH EXTREME NE OHIO INTO NW PA. THIS
WEAK FRONT WILL END UP BEING A FACTOR IN THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY WHERE THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE LOCATED EACH DAY WITH IT POTENTIALLY BEING PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY. SINCE THERE IS SO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY WE WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WE MAY
BE ABLE TO SHUT THE RAIN CHANCES OFF FASTER THAN WHAT THE CURRENT
FORECAST INDICATES.

IT WILL REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH HIGHS REMAINING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE EASTERN UNITED
STATES BY SATURDAY AND BUILD GRADUALLY EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE IS A BIT ACTIVE AS SMALL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATE OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. EXPECTING SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT EACH DAY. THIS IS ALSO IN
RESPONSE TO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE AND THE CLOSE
PROXIMITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT. SO...THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION THREAT IS ALL DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE STATIONARY
FRONT IS AT...AT ANY GIVEN MOMENT. SOME PLACES IN THE WEST COULD
HIT 90 DEGREES FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES
OCCUR THE FURTHER EAST ONE GOES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECAST THIS MORNING ALL HINGES ON TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN. POTENTIAL EXISTS THAT
THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SCOOT EAST ACROSS
MICHIGAN INTO ONTARIO. SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND THIS COULD HELP SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH. WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF TIMING PRECIPITATION INTO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE COMPLEX.
WILL ALSO KEEP A MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVE EAST INTO
THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT ON THE LAKE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND THEREFORE TRANSLATE TO WAVES OF
GENERALLY ONE FOOT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY





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