Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 292241

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
641 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

Low pressure will drift across the Upper Ohio Valley through the
weekend...then weaken and move northeast of the area Monday. A large
area of high pressure will move across the Great Lakes early next
week...and move off the New England Coast Wednesday.


Little change in the forecast.   Upper level low has drifted into
Western Ky and all 3 models has it nearly stationary in Central KY
overnight. The showers now over NE OH will continue to shift west
this evening.  Showers will gradually expand over entire area
overnight...fed by 300 mb jet max moving across the lower lakes.
the 3 hour flash flood guidance is 1.5-2.5 inches so do not think
will approach that overnight.  Temps will remain in the 50s
overnight...trended toward the dew points for overnight lows.
Only adjustment made with this early evening update was to lower
the thunderstorm chance...wording it as a chance of thunderstorms
along with the occasional rain showers.


Model trends hint that the convection will lift NE of the forecast
area tomorrow morning as the upper level jet shifts East...then
convection redeveloping during the afternoon.  Models still not in
good agreement with the track and timing of the low...but trend is
similar.  Expect low to drift north across Indiana/Illinois through
the weekend...then finally lift north of Lake Erie Sunday afternoon.
WPC 72 hour forecast paints a widespread 1-2 inches across the
forecast area by Sunday.  As far as temps...expect highs hovering in
the mid to upper 60s and lows in the 50s.


The models are not quite in agreement with the exit of the upper low
early next week. The GFS has the system out to sea on Tuesday while
the ECMWF is slower with the upper low still struggling to get off
the east coast by Wednesday. The CMC leaves a chunk of the upper low
behind which may be possible as the rex block builds over the Great

In any case, one would hope that heights will rise enough to suppress
any more shower development. Will allow for a small chance of
lingering showers extreme northeast Ohio and northwest PA on Monday
otherwise dry Monday through Wednesday. Will keep Thursday dry for
now as the next trough/front may be delayed if the tropical system
goes up the Atlantic coast.

Temperatures will trend back above normal as the ridge builds aloft
and the forecast will be near or above most of the guidance. Highs
from around 70 Monday and in the 70s mid week.


.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Low pressure at the surface and aloft will drift across the Ohio
valley into the weekend. Areas of rain and embedded thunder will
rotate across the area from time to time. Ceilings and
visibilities will be MVFR much of the time with IFR ceilings and
visibilities in the showers. IFR ceilings will develop in many
areas tonight.

Easterly winds will be gusty at times across extreme northeast
Ohio and near the Lake Erie lakeshore.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR at times through Sunday.


Low pressure over the Ohio Valley with an increasing low level jet
will make for windy conditions on the open Lake Erie into Saturday.
Some of the stronger winds will make it to the south shore of Lake
Erie this evening into Saturday. The small craft advisory will
remain in effect. Waterspouts remain a slim possibility, mainly
across the western basin into Saturday, but confidence is too low to
include in the forecast at this time.

The flow will begin to veer more east to southeast on Saturday and
the better winds and waves will transition back into the open
waters and the Canadian waters. The gradient should diminish as the
system begins to weaken and lift out on Sunday. The flow will veer
more from the northwest by Monday but it does not seem as though the
wind will increase much.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ147>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for LEZ142>146.


LONG TERM...Kosarik
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