Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 021150
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
750 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND BRING COOLER
WEATHER BACK TO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND
POP/WEATHER BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS. ENDED THE EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS BY 9 AM BASED ON THE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CURRENT
MOVEMENT. NO OTHER CHANGES.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
GETTING CLIPPED BY A WEAK SHORT WAVE WITH JUST ENOUGH MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR A FEW SHOWERS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON AND CANTON.

CAPES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE NICELY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO...TO AROUND 3000 J/KG...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER 80S. NONETHELESS...MOST OF THE
MODELS INDICATE A STABLE LAYER AND SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 850-600 MB
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH A LACK OF A TRIGGER CONVECTION IS NOT
LIKELY TODAY. WILL WATCH THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AS MID LEVEL
JET ENERGY IS UNSEASONABLY STRONG BUT IT WILL TAKE UNTIL TONIGHT
FOR THAT ACTIVITY TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.

SURFACE TEMPS HAVE BEEN GETTING AS WARM OR WARMER THAN THE LOW LEVEL
MODEL THERMAL INDICES WOULD SUGGEST SO THE WARMER GFS MOS
GUIDANCE TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S ARE REASONABLE TODAY. A FEW
SPOTS COULD TOUCH 90. DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60S THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO BUT THERE WILL BE A NICE BREEZE.
DEW POINTS SHOULD ONLY RISE TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LAKES AND EARLY TONIGHT THEY WILL MAKE A PUSH
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THEY CAN
GET WITHOUT LOSING SOME STEAM BUT THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ROLL
INTO TOLEDO AND ACROSS LAKE ERIE...THE BEST GUESS IS BE 03Z- 06Z.
IF THE STORMS HOLD THEIR INTENSITY... DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A
CONCERN AS THE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONG ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPENED LAPSE RATES.

THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
MONDAY BUT MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE FRONT AND UNTIL THE
FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY THERE CAN BE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES. MONDAY
COULD BE ONE OF THOSE MORNINGS WHERE ACTIVITY KEEPS REDEVELOPING
OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LAKE ERIE. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOST SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
ALTHOUGH TOLEDO MAY BE DONE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS PRETTY EARLY.

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CLIP EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY FLOW WILL BE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SO IT WOULD
NOT AFFECT MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST AND HOW FAR
NORTH ANY OVER RUNNING SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE GFS IS NOW MORE AGGRESSIVE ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THE OTHER
MODELS HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AND THE
FORECAST WILL ALLOW FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID MID WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST STILL FEATURES A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. HARDER TO
FIGURE OUT WILL BE TIMING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS TRACKS THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WILL
INCLUDE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL BUT
EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ON THURSDAY...TAPERING BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE BY FRIDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE BEEN COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS
TO BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AGAIN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCT-BKN CLOUDS NEAR 6K FEET AT CAK/YNG WILL CLEAR THROUGH
13Z...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH THUNDERSTORMS SINKING SOUTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE AFTER 00Z.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
FORM...MAINLY AT TOL/FDY/CLE/ERI. TIMING OF SHRA OR TSRA IN THE
TAFS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON UPSTREAM EVOLUTION. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 18-25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR NON VFR AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT WEST OF THE ISLANDS AT NOON...EXPANDING
EAST TO CLEVELAND AFTER 6 PM AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP WINDS
IN THE ... RANGE. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED
TO THE EAST END OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AS WINDS VEER TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO A SOLID 20-25 KNOTS. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE LAKE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE AN EFFECT ON
WHEN THE FRONT FINALLY COMES THROUGH...BUT MIGHT NOT OCCUR UNTIL
LATE MONDAY WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS CONTINUING ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LEZ142-143.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
     FOR LEZ144>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



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