Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 281341

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
941 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Low pressure working across the Upper Ohio Valley this morning
will head to the mid-Atlantic coast by this evening. High
pressure from central Canada will build south across the Great
Lakes for Tuesday night and Wednesday. The next low pressure
system will again originate from the southern Plains on
Wednesday night and track toward the Ohio Valley for Thursday
and Friday.


Surface low pressure continues to move east across southern Ohio
and this motion will take the rain and drizzle out of the area
by this afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will make a slow
recovery this afternoon as we start to see a few breaks in the
overcast. Otherwise, no major changes with this update.

Previous Discussion...

Have added the mention of patchy fog this morning for downtown
Cleveland across the near west suburbs and down toward
Mansfield/Ashland for a few hours this morning. Visibility at
the airport has come down under a mile. This area is on the back
edge of the rain and is also where cooler air has filtered
southward. Not sure of the extent of fog up the lakeshore toward
Erie though. There has not been as much rain there and winds are
now just coming around to the north. Not thinking it will be too
bad for too long...but could be wrong. Otherwise with the early
morning update have tweaked temperatures and precip chances a
bit. Have brought temps down a degree or two.

Previous discussion...Low pressure moving east-northeast
across central OH this morning will continue to have showers
rotating about it. Question will be how far north does this band
of steadier showers make it as it pivots across eastern OH.
HRRR seems to have good handle on it so far this morning and
will trend that way. This will bring the steadier rain from Avon
Point up to the lakeshore into northwest PA early this morning
before tapering the showers going into early afternoon.
Temperatures will be tricky. North winds and some cold advection
will make it tough for temperatures to go more than a few
degrees up from mid morning lows.


Although the afternoon will likely be dry have lingered the
slight chance of rain that we had going for this evening going.
A weak trough and low level moisture may be enough for some
light rain/sprinkles this evening across the eastern half of the
area. But by the second half of the night high pressure and
drying will end any threat. Temperatures will dip into the 30s.

Cool high pressure will keep temperatures close to seasonal
averages. Temperatures will be coolest near the lake with a
north-northeast wind. The ridge does not shift to our east until
Wednesday night and winds will begin to respond to low pressure
developing and moving out of the southern Plains toward the Ohio
Valley for the second half of the week. There is still some
spread on low track, but most take a similar track to recent
lows...across central OH. Pulled back on precip chances until
later in the day...more toward evening with the exception of the
I-75 corridor which could get clipped earlier. Bulk of rain
will accompany the low and the upper trough across the area
Thursday night into Friday.

A little cooler Wednesday with the high overhead. This will lead
to another cool night with some sub freezing temps possible
across far ne OH/nw PA...but this is right near season norms.
Warmer Thursday/Friday ahead of the next system. A good east
wind Thursday will keep the Toledo area cool from the lake.
Temps may end up being cooler near the entire lakeshore Friday
if indeed the low track is south of the local area and we
enhance a north wind.


As we enter into April, the good news is that there continues to be
no snow in the extended forecast. High pressure is progged to build
in on Saturday. Cannot rule out lingering showers in the morning
but the model trends have been consistent with subsidence and
drying. Will go a bit below guidance temperatures Saturday into
Sunday especially near Lake Erie given the north wind. Sunday
remains uncertain as a zone of differential advection and
frontogenesis wants to develop all the way from the upper
midwest to the upper Ohio Valley. Most of the time, this type of
pattern will result in mid clouds and perhaps a sprinkle but
hard to get excited about measurable rain and will continue with
a dry forecast on Sunday.

The models diverge by Monday with the ECMWF developing a deeper
storm system farther north while the other models confine the system
to the southern branch. Will keep a small PoP in the forecast Monday
given the uncertainty on the seventh day of the forecast.
Temperatures on Monday will depend on the clouds and threat of rain
but we should start the day with high pressure and relatively high
heights and one would think there is a decent chance it will try to
warm above normal with highs around 60 or more if the rain holds


.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Showers moving east about 20 mph and will end from west to east
this morning. IFR ceilings will become widespread this morning
and improve only slowly becoming MVFR this afternoon. VFR
ceilings will return across northwest OH by late afternoon or
early evening but remain Non-VFR elsewhere into tonight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR developing again on Thursday and continuing
into Friday. Non-VFR possible through Saturday morning NE OH and


Low pressure will track south of Lake Erie today with a
corresponding north wind. Wind speeds and waves should remain below
small craft criteria but the south shore and the Islands will be a
little choppy.

A large area of high pressure will slowly cross eastern Canada mid
week. Combine the high pressure with low pressure in the Mississippi
Valley and the east to northeast flow on Lake Erie will increase
noticeably by Thursday and a small craft advisory may be needed.

The low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley will likely
track just south of Lake Erie on Friday. High pressure will build
across the Great Lakes again by the weekend with more north winds
and choppy conditions.




NEAR TERM...Lombardy/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Kosarik
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