Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 202111
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
411 PM EST Fri Jan 20 2017
Low pressure will move northeast out of the Plains overnight and
lift another warm front across the area on Saturday. An upper level
trough will close off along the Gulf Coast on Sunday then curl up
the east coast on Monday focusing a plume of moisture from the
Atlantic towards the region.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A mild airmass with well above normal temperatures will remain
overnight. One surface trough is departing to the north across Lake
Erie and just a few showers or light drizzle will continue in the
east through the evening. After that time another area of low
pressure will move northeast out of the Plains lifting another
surface trough north across the area. As the trough arrives after
midnight, expecting to see drizzle and fog re-develop, especially in
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Well above normal temperatures will continue over the weekend and
warmed highs on Saturday to be in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees.
Mansfield record high near 58 degrees and Youngstown of 59 degrees
are both in jeopardy of being broken while other sites are all in
the mid to upper 60s. Expecting the overnight drizzle to come to an
end as the warm front lifts north again and with the airmass dries aloft.
Although the stratus may thin some during the afternoon, not
expecting too many breaks to develop until late in the day. By
that time mid and high cloud will be on the increase again so will
just call sky cover mostly cloudy. If any significant breaks
develop then temperatures could be warmer.
Upper level low will close off along the Gulf States on Sunday
and curl northeast up the coast on Monday. This system will be
nearly vertically stacked with favorable easterly flow and
moisture transport off the Atlantic in advance of the system.
Raised pops to categorical on Sunday night and Monday given the
favorable moisture transport and PW values near 1 inch. Some
uncertainty remains with how long the rain will linger which will
depend on the evolution of this system. If it stalls along the
Mid-Atlantic then rain could continue longer versus drifting
north and losing that connection. Rain bands will eventually
diminish and decrease in coverage with time as the system becomes
increasingly wrapped up. QPF during the Sunday-Monday time frame
is expected to range from a third of an inch in the west to up to
an inch in the east but this will need to be refined over the
weekend. At this time expecing some additional rises on area
rivers with only minor flooding.
Temperatures in the Toledo area and northwest Ohio will start to
drop off on Sunday as a northeasterly flow develops off Lake
Erie. Northerly flow expected to increase all areas by Monday with
highs dropping back into the low to mid 40s on the north side of
the system. The airmass may finally cool enough for some mix with
snow with lingering precipitation on Monday night.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The long term begins Tuesday with the GFS and ECMWF in agreement
showing one upper low pulling east out of the area followed by
another dropping across the Great Lakes region from the northwest
Thursday and Friday. At the surface...low pressure will move through
the region Wednesday dragging a cold front through during the day.
For Tuesday...will have low chance pops for a mix northeast with
lingering moisture from the departing low. For Wednesday will have
chance pops for rain in place as warmer air moves into the area
ahead of the low. The cold front will follow during the day. Moist
air will continue to flow in to the area behind the low as colder
air moves in so will have primarily snow forecast for Wednesday
night. Most areas chance pops should be fine but will have likely
pops northeast. Thursday through Friday the upper low swings across
the Great Lakes keeping at least scattered rain/snow showers in
place. Temps mild to start but trending toward normal Thursday int0
.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Most precip has now moved northeast out of the area however
conditions remain IFR across much of northern Ohio with MVFR
conditions in NWRN PA. Expecting IFR conditions to move into NWRN
PA after the rain lifts northeast mid/late afternoon. Also
expecting most IFR to remain through the day...possibly lifting to
MVFR late. Overnight, guidance is divergent with the GFS
suggesting IFR and LIFR conditions return while the NAM shows
mostly MVFR conditions. At this time have sided with the GFS and
took most locations down to IFR. Although with downslope flow at
KCLE and KERI went with MVFR conditions through the night.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR persisting through much of saturday. Non-VFR
developing again Sunday continuing Monday. Non-VFR will likely
persist on Tuesday NE OH/NW PA.
Weather over Lake erie will be dominated by two system over the next
several days. First, low pressure over the central plains this
evening will move northeast into the western lakes and upper midwest
Saturday night and Sunday dragging a warm front north across Lake
Erie. The next system will move out of the southern plains Saturday
night tracking east across the Tennessee valley Sunday across the
central Appalachians Monday into the northeast on Tuesday. Neither
system is expected to produce gales on the lakes however northeast
flow on Monday may reach small craft advisory levels.