Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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426
FXUS61 KCLE 120514
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1214 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. FOR FRIDAY AN
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH PLUMMETING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP WITH
PERIODIC HEAVY SNOW IN THE SNOWBELT FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS FOR EXTREME NE OH/NW
PA TONIGHT WITH SNOW BECOMING CONFINED MORE TO LAKESHORE AREAS AS
THE FLOW BACKS. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
OHIO ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY. LOWERED MINS FOR
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OHIO ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL FILL
BACK IN TO SOME EXTENT. STILL NO PLANS TO ISSUE ANY WIND CHILL
ADVISORIES AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST AREAS IN THE
ZERO TO -10 RANGE.

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TOMORROW FORECAST. BACKED OFF
ON CHANCES OF SNOW UNTIL THE ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A GOOD BURST OF SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY
THE FRONT SO RAISED POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY FOR INLAND
AREAS. NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... THE LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGES SHOW THE
CLEARLY DEFINED WNW SNOWBANDS OVER THE REGION...WITH AN ENHANCED
HURON BAND OVER EASTERN ERIE PA COUNTY. DRIER AIR AND A GRADUAL
WIND SHIFT TO THE SW WILL HELP DECAY THE LAKE EFFECT OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
FLURRIES THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY REMAINS HIGH.
TONIGHT AWAY FROM THE SNOWBELT WE WILL SEE SOME REDUCTION IN
CLOUDS...BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BUT FORTUNATELY WIND SPEEDS WILL TAPER OFF TO AROUND 5 MPH
REDUCING THE WIND CHILL FACTOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY. SW
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK TO THE WEST BY MIDDAY AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS MUCH
COLDER AIR MOVES IN. THIS WILL TRIGGER SOME LAKE EFFECT BANDS
FAIRLY RAPIDLY AS THE LAPSE RATES CLIMB. THE FIRST BAND WILL
LIKELY CLIP LAKESHORE ERIE/ASHTABULA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. COULD SEE A QUICK 3 TO 5 INCHES
IF THE BAND MOVES ONSHORE. THE NW FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SUPPORT FOR ONGOING LAKE EFFECT.
LOOK FOR HURON BANDS TO ENHANCE SNOW AMOUNTS. THE BEST ESTIMATES
FOR THE EVENT IS AREAS IN ASHTABULA/ERIE/CRAWFORD OF 8-12".
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO AROUND AN
INCH OR LESS AS THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED. SNOW RATIOS WILL
BE PUSHING 20 TO 1 AT TIMES SO SNOW AMOUNTS COULD QUICKLY
ACCUMULATE WITH BANDS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WIND CHILLS -10 OR LESS. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR COLDEST WITH MOST
AREAS DIPPING BELOW ZERO. WINDS AT THIS TIME WILL BE RELAXING AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN...HOWEVER WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WILL STILL BE LIKELY. BY SUNDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
ESTABLISHED WITH AN END OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BUT ONGOING BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME BIG DIFFERENCES REMAIN AMONG THE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. WEAK WARM ADVECTION ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT PRECIP...LIGHT SNOW...BUT THE DRY AIR MASS AND DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE SNOW AMOUNTS. IF I HAD TO BET
I WOULD SAY AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST.

A STRONG SHORT WAVE IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH IS PROGGED TO TRACK
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS TRYING TO DEVELOP A
SURFACE LOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS ARE MORE ALONG THE EAST COAST. TYPICALLY IN THIS TYPE OF A
PATTERN...THE MAIN LOW ENDS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME SNOW CAN
GET SQUEEZED OUT AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A
CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST MAINLY OVER THE COUNTIES FROM AROUND
THE I-71 CORRIDOR EAST. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF IS COLDER MID WEEK AND SHOWS A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. NONETHELESS...TEMPS WILL PROBABLY SNEAK UP
TO NEAR NORMAL WITH A CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS. NOT A
LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY THURSDAY GIVEN THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN SHOWING THE ARCTIC AIR SLIDING BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FORECAST WILL BE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT
ERI AT TIMES INTO FRI MORNING. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SE
ACROSS THE AREA FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT BUT THE MORE INTENSE AND
PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS WILL JUST BE IN THE SNOWBELT. CONDITIONS
SHOULD MAINLY DROP TO MVFR AS THE FRONT DROPS THRU AND REMAIN MVFR
WELL INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE IMPROVEMENT STARTS TO TAKE PLACE AT TOL
AND FDY. VSBY`S WILL DROP TO IFR AT TIMES IN THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER
NE OH AND NW PA LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY FOR MAINLY THE SNOWBELT
THEN MORE OF A WIDESPREAD THREAT ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE ON LAKE ERIE TONIGHT...BACKING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST...AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
PICK BACK UP ON FRIDAY...INCREASING UP AROUND 30 KNOTS...FIRST FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONT. GALES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY
BELOW GALE FORCE FOR THE MOST PART. THE STRONG WINDS AND BUILDING
WAVES WILL PRODUCE FREEZING SPRAY...MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. ICE FORMATION WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ON THE LAKE THIS
WEEKEND AND WE WILL PROBABLY SEE THE WESTERN BASIN AND SHORE ICE
INCREASE RAPIDLY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTH AS THE HIGH SLIDES EAST. A SERIES OF RELATIVELY
WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH OCCASIONAL SHIFTS WEST NORTHWEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM NOON EST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...KEC/JAMISON
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK



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