Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301938
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
338 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOWER CIGS FROM CLE TO MFD WEST SHOULD SHOW A LITTLE IMPROVEMENT
INTO THIS EVENING THEN ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LIGHT WINDS AND
GROUND MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH
IFR/POSSIBLE LOW IFR FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT
AND DISSIPATE FROM 13 TO 15Z LATE WED MORNING. MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER
IN THE EAST THRU EARLY AFTERNOON.

SCT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THIS EVENING...MAINLY FROM CLE TO CAK
EASTWARD.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY
ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS






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