Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 130804
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
404 AM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND A MUCH STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NOT A CLEAR CUT FORECAST FOR TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH TODAY. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION IN QUICKLY MOVING THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
BY AROUND 11 AM AND THEN DEVELOPS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NW PA SW THROUGH THE FDY AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT FROM THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS WEAKENING...SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE. SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SO WATCHING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE SHOULD BE MAINLY
INLAND FROM LAKE ERIE.

SINCE WE WILL HAVE SOME DRY SPELLS EVEN THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT ALONG THE LAKESHORE DIDN`T GO COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE..USED A BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LINGERING MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE EVENING.

FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT WENT WITH CHANCE POPS AS
ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. AT THIS TIME JUST KEPT THEM
CHANCE POPS AS THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS NOT REAL
HIGH...HOWEVER...SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 60% POPS.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

FOR TUESDAY...GUIDANCE POPS ARE SOMEWHAT LOW BUT CONTINUED A
CHANCE OVER NE OH AND NW PA BECAUSE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH
THE LAKE AND 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE GETTING CLOSE TO 14C.
ALSO INCLUDED A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL LINGER IN THE SNOW BELT AREAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROF SWINGING THROUGH WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY. A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWS TONIGHT. USED A BLEND WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS AND DRY WEATHER...SOME DRYING SHOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARDS QUEBEC ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD AT THE SURFACE. A LOW CHANCE POP REMAINS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW PA BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WITH HEIGHTS STARTING TO CLIMB AND THE AIRMASS DRYING
OUT. LOCATIONS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE IN NE OH/NW PA WILL STILL BE
FAIRLY COOL WITH HIGHS NEAR 70 DEGREES WHILE NW/CENTRAL OHIO WILL
START TO RECOVER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. DRYING TREND CONTINUES
ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING ANOTHER 3-4 DEGREES.

BY SATURDAY WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
LIFTING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD NORTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN OHIO
WHICH COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED CU FIELD AND MAYBE EVEN A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN MOISTURE RETURN TO ADD
POPS TO THE FORECAST BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO CONSIDER OVER
FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 06Z REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SW TO CHICAGO AND WESTWARD ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE MOST INTENSE PORTION OF THIS
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST WHILE GRADUALLY SAGGING SOUTH WITH TIME. IT LOOKS LIKE
SHOWERS WILL FILL IN OVERNIGHT BUT THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS WE WAIT TO SEE HOW THE
COMPLEX EVOLVES. TRIED TO TIME A WINDOW OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO MOST
OF THE TAF SITES BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE PRECIPITATION SAGS SOUTH...STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON ON THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIPITATION AND EFFECT MAINLY
MFD/CAK/YNG. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAIN IN
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH WINDS POSSIBLY SHIFTING TO THE WEST OFF LAKE ERIE
AT CLE/ERI BEHIND THE RAIN.

SKIES WILL START TO CLEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE AND BR/FG
MAY DEVELOP AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN TODAY. DID NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH
OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING...WITH WINDS ON EASTERN LAKE ERIE NEAR 20
KNOTS AT TIMES. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TOWARDS QUEBEC THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY LATER TODAY AND NW THIS EVENING. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE WINDS MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A SW OFFSHORE COMPONENT THAT
WAVES PEAK IN THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE...JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON WINDS AND WAVE
REPORTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE PENNSYLVANIA WATERS...AND MAY STILL NEED
TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS GET CLOSE ENOUGH.

A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON TUESDAY WITH
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASING TO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND WAVES WILL BUILD DOWN
THE LONG FETCH OF THE LAKE. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER
WAVE GROWTH AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED EAST OF
CLEVELAND WITH WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET. WATERSPOUTS MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
OVER THE LAKE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY WITH
GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC






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