Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201143
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
643 AM EST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of lows and upper disturbances will move northeast across
the Ohio Valley through the weekend and into the middle of next
week. The last low on wednesday will pull a strong cold front across
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Rain moving across the area as planned having now reached into
northeast OH. Fortunately temperatures continue to rise and even
NW PA has risen to 33/30. Freezing rain at onset should not be an
issue. Areas of drizzle/light rain can be seen developing across
western KY. Therefore still feel as if the slight chance lingering
through the rest of the day works. Future updates can evaluate
whether to give it a higher chance of measuring or word it as
areas of drizzle. Previous discussion follows...

Rain has made its way to the I-75 corridor and will rotate and
lift across the rest of the area today...leading to several hours
of a steady rain. The wedge of high precipitable water/deep
moisture is associated with a negatively tilted upper shortwave
that will weaken with time today as it runs into the ridge
extending up to near Hudson Bay. Drying wrapping in on the
backside of this wave as seen on recent water vapor imagery will
put an end to the steady rain from southwest to northeast from
late morning through mid afternoon. Rainfall amounts still look to
range from a quarter to a half inch. A lot of low level moisture
will be left behind and there is some concern we will not be
entirely rid of light precip later this afternoon. Therefore have
retained 20 percent chances in the wake of the earlier rain for
the remainder of the day. Temperatures will rise into the upper
30s/lower 40s for the rain and then further increase after the
rain exits...topping out in the upper 40s/near 50. After
yesterdays performance and the continued widespread stratus...have
gone on the colder side if guidance for those highs today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The mild weather will hold through the weekend and into early next
week. The first shortwave to make eastward progress...versus
being drawn northeast across the western Great Lakes...cuts across
the Gulf Coast states Sunday. With no cold air to tap into
yet...we will maintain the cloudy and mild status quo with
scattered rain showers.

It is hard to pinpoint an entirely dry period the next few days.
We retain enough low level moisture and broad lift with cyclonic
flow cannot rule out drizzle or a few light showers Saturday or
Sunday. The models are starting to key in on a piece of shortwave
energy that will lift northeast across the Ohio Valley Saturday
night. With that feature have raised our precip chances. Beyond
that we are left in a void between the upper low that will be
tracking across the Gulf Coast states and another across the upper
midwest. Again cannot say zero precip chance...but with no
significant feature to key in on...difficult to put much detail
into the forecast just yet.

Temperatures will stick in the 40s and 50s...with slightly cooler
readings for Sunday night through Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The east coast low is progged to move off the coast on Tuesday.
Ridging is progged to expand quickly across the midwest. Lingering
light precip is possible across extreme northeast OH and northwest
PA. It may be cold enough for some wet flakes especially over the
higher terrain but the air mass behind the system will not be cold
by January standards. Highs from the mid 30s NW PA to the lower 40s.

The next low will come quickly and it will be more of a panhandle
hook tracking toward the western Great Lakes. If it were not for the
low level jet, I would think there is little risk of warm advection
showers but will keep a low pop Tuesday night as the low level jet
increases. The column should warm quickly and do not see much risk
of snow.

We should be in the warm sector Wednesday, at least to start the
day. The models bring the cold front across the area at a variety of
times but an afternoon frontal passage seems to be the average. In
any case, most indications are that the day will be warm, especially
across northeast OH and northwest PA where highs could push 50F.
Will keep a chance of showers with the frontal passage.

The trough aloft will cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday.
It will finally get cold enough for some snow showers, mainly in the
snowbelt, but nothing out of the ordinary.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A swath of rain will continue to spread north. Ceilings will come
down to IFR and winds will shift from east to south late morning
and early afternoon as a weak warm front pushes through. Most of
the rain will end late this morning and early afternoon but
cannot rule out a lingering shower or some drizzle and lingering
MVFR fog/mist. Drier air sweeping north should result in
improving ceilings to MVFR by late afternoon and evening. Light
south winds tonight and a moist boundary layer could result in the
redevelopment of stratus and IFR ceilings which could linger into
Saturday morning.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR developing Sunday continuing Monday. Non-VFR
will likely persist on Tuesday NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
The flow on Lake Erie has come around from the east ahead of a weak
low pressure center and warm front. Winds will veer more southerly
today as the system lifts across the lake. Speeds will remain
rather light. The flow will veer to the northeast over the weekend
as deep low pressure tracks well south of the lake and up the east
coast early next week. The northeast flow will become brisk as the
pressure gradient increases and a small craft advisory will be
needed Sunday into Monday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik



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