Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 151753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1253 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

A warm front will lift north through the area this morning. Low
pressure will track along the front and cross the region this
afternoon and evening, pushing the front back south across the area.
A secondary cold front will move south across the area tonight into
Friday morning. High pressure will build across the region Friday
through Saturday. A trough will move east across the region Saturday
night through early Sunday before high pressure briefly returns to
the area Sunday and Sunday night.


No additional changes with this midday update. Contemplating
bringing the flood watch a tier of counties northward based on
this mornings hi-res guidance. Will continue to monitor.

Original discussion... A warm front is situated across the far
southern fringe of the forecast area early this morning, with
widespread fog and patches of dense fog and drizzle north of the
boundary. This boundary will continue to lift north across the
area through the morning, bringing with it a rapid improvement
in visibility and an end to the drizzle. Already seeing some
improvement from Wapakoneta to Mt. Vernon to New Philadelphia
through the 2 AM hour. Findlay has jumped to 3 miles, but dense
fog is still persisting across the advisory area per webcams and
obs. There is a possibility the advisory could be cancelled
along the southern fringe before the expiration time, but will
play it by ear over the next couple of hours and monitor the
trends. Drizzle should all but end across the area around and
just after daybreak. Temps should jump into the low 50s across
most of the area through early/mid morning, with 50s already
reported from Findlay to Mt. Vernon. High for today are similar
to previous forecast, however high res guidance has been
trending to hang the front up near Toledo, so it will be a very
tricky temperature forecast for the metro area. This forecast is
perhaps a few degrees colder than the previous, with highs in
the 48F to 51F range there. Expect to see some spots reach 60
across the southern part of the area.

Confidence increasing with the evolution of precip across the area
today and tonight. Guidance is fairly consistent with timing of the
precip onset, shortly after 18Z in the west and 21Z across the east.
Feel confident enough in cat pops across the entire area from around
21Z through 03Z before the front sags back south across the area,
with cat pops then confined to the southeast half of the forecast
area through 06Z, diminishing afterward. Wouldn`t be surprised to
see a rumble of thunder across the area, especially from Findlay to
Mansfield and south. Instability is fairly limited, although strong
forcing/upper dynamics could be enough for some isolated lightning.
However, not confident enough at this point to include thunder in
the forecast. QPF has been bumped up just a bit, especially south of
the US-30 corridor where hi-res guidance is placing the heaviest
precip. Rainfall amounts through tonight could be as high as 1.25"
south, with generally 0.75" to 1" north. Amounts will likely
fluctuate with pockets of higher totals with the convective nature
of the rain. Have opted for a Flood Watch late this afternoon
through early Friday morning from Marion eastward to Stark, given
wet antecedent conditions, convective nature of the rain expected
with PWATs near climatological max values. Temps will fall into the
30s behind the front as it moves south overnight, with a more rapid
decent into the low 30s from 06Z to 12Z across the area. Temps will
barely recover into the low 30s to near 40 on Friday behind the
front. Some lingering lake effect snow showers are possible Friday
morning into Friday afternoon before diminishing as much drier air
moves into the region and winds diminish with high pressure building


The short term begins Friday night as high pressure is building
east into the area from the upper Midwest. Saturday the high
moves to our east and moisture begins returning toward the area
from the south. Models of course disagree on the amount of
moisture that makes it back into the area with the ECMWF fairly
wet while the GFS and NAM are unconvincing. For now will keep
much of the area dry through Saturday afternoon but will bring a
low chance pop into the south. Models continue with differences
Saturday night but individually east would support a chance pop
at various points through the night so will continue with
chance pops through midnight, drying out after midnight as high
pressure builds in from the west. Sunday another high moves east
across the area. Will need to have chance pops again Sunday
night as moisture increase again in the return flow on the back
side of the high. Monday begins a several day wet period as low
pressure moves northeast out of the central plains opening the
area up to GLFMX moisture. Will have likely pops through the
day. Look for a warming trend during the short term with highs
Saturday in the mid/upper 30s, Sunday low to mid 40s and Monday
in the 50s.


Tuesday and Wednesday continue to look wet with both the GFS
and ECMWF bringing low pressure out of the central plains
through the Great Lakes then moving a slow moving cold front
through the area with waves of low pressure moving northeast
along the boundary. Drying will develop Wednesday evening But
the ECMWF brings moisture back into the lower OH Vly Thursday
afternoon. Temps Tuesday in the 50s and lower 60s. Wednesday mid
and upper 40s northwest to upper 50s southeast. Thursday upper
30s to upper 40s.


.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Widespread MVFR starts the TAF period. IFR lingers across TOL
and they will likely not break from that for quite a while,
although the MVFR is not far away. An area of VFR is fleeting
and will affect CLE/CAK/YNG/ERI/FDY for a bit. A steady rain
moves in this afternoon and conditions will hold at IFR/MVFR for
the rest of the TAF period. At times, moderate rain. Some
embedded thunder possible for MFD/CAK. Low level wind shear
threat is out there for this afternoon/evening, primarily across
southern terminals. Wind shift with the front this evening will
bring south-southwest winds around to north-northwest. Precip
will be ending/becoming much lighter near the time temperatures
get cold enough for snow.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday night into Sunday and again
Monday and Tuesday.


SW winds should increase to about 10 to 20 knots Thu ahead of a cold
front that will turn winds to the NW for Fri that will then become
light and changeable for Fri night into Sat as high pressure moves
over the lake.

South to SW winds will redevelop for Sun and Mon but should tend to
stay 15 knots or less.

The warmer temps will likely produce some melting of the ice on the
lake but the relatively light winds should lead to only limited
movement of the ice fields.


OH...Flood Watch from 4 PM EST this afternoon through Friday
     morning for OHZ029>032-036>038-047.


NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Oudeman
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