Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 270736
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
336 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAKES WILL WEAKEN INTO TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL BRIEFLY REBUILD OVER THE LAKES FOR SATURDAY
THEN WEAKEN BY SUNDAY AS ANOTHER LOW SLOWLY MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO
THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/... HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD COMBINE TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TODAY. DRIER
AIR BEING PUSHED SW AT LOWER LEVELS WILL WORK TO DECREASE CLOUDS
FROM NE TO SW THIS MORNING THEN HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START
TO INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE SW FROM MID AFTERNOON ON BUT RAIN SHOULD
STAY SW OF THE AREA THRU NIGHTFALL BUT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A
SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE SW BY EVENING.

TEMPS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE SOUTH BUT COOLER THAN
NORMAL IN THE NORTH AS THE NE WIND COMES IN OFF THE CHILLY LAKE.
HIGHS RIGHT AT THE LAKESHORE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THU THRU FRI WITH
WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA. BASED ON THE LATEST MODELS AND QPF...WILL
SPEED UP THE NE SPREAD OF THE PRECIP TONIGHT INTO THU AND SHOW AN
OVERALL INCREASE IN TOTAL QPF FOR THE EVENT. RIGHT NOW NOT SEEING
ENOUGH QPF FOR FLOODING BUT SITUATION COULD CHANGE IF CONVECTION
WITH HEAVY RAIN LINES UP AND TRAINS OVER AN AREA.

TEMPS THRU FRI NIGHT WILL NOT SHOW MUCH OF A DAY TO DAY DIFFERENCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE
PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ENERGY SLIDING EAST THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY. SATURDAY SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
START TO SNEAK INTO NW OHIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DIFFERENCES DO EXIST BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS IN THE TRACK OF
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE WAVE ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z/27 RUN OF THE GFS HAS
TRENDED MUCH FARTHER SOUTH AND TRIES TO KEEP PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE THIS SOLUTION
OUT...IT IS A SOUTHERN SHIFT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS MUCH SLOWER
AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z GEM/ECMWF AND SEVERAL OF THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. KEPT 60-70 PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON MODEL TRENDS
TO SEE IF THE LATEST GFS GAINS SUPPORT. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES
SAT-MON A COUPLE DEGREES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE LAKE GIVEN THE
CONTINUED FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW MVFR TO IFR STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
GRADUAL CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUD DECK FROM NE TO SW THROUGH 14Z.
EXPECT MOST SITES TO BE VFR BY 14-16Z ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN VFR
UNTIL CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL LIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT THE WESTERN SITES BY 03-06Z. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY AT TOL/FDY/CLE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...AND PROBABLY AGAIN
SAT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND WILL CONTINUE ON LAKE ERIE FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK AND MAY LEAD TO CHOPPY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE TODAY BUT
MAY BRIEFLY SURPASS 15 KNOTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY BUT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ON THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE BEHIND THIS
DEPARTING SYSTEM ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS BACKING TO NORTHEAST AND
DROPPING OFF.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



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