Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 212335
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
735 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA RIGHT ABOUT SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER FRIDAY AND WILL
BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...SO ADDED CHANCE OF SPRINKLE FOR EVENING FORECAST. SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING...AND WILL GET
SOME TEMPORARY CLEARING BACKSIDE OF SHORT WAVE.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF CLEARING...OR PARTIAL CLEARING
TONIGHT...BEFORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVE IN
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. NOT A REAL SIGNIFICANT
FEATURE...AND MAY ONLY HAVE A SPRINKLE OR A HUNDREDTH OR TWO BEFORE
SUNRISE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S WITH A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE THREAT FOR A SPRINKLE OR BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
FOR MORNING WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE THE LAST
IN A SERIES OF RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. THE HIGH BUILDS IN
NICELY DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY...WITH A GOOD DEAL OF
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING TAKING PLACE. WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING TO
TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WOULD EXPECT TO STILL HAVE A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA OFF OF THE LAKE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR/CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT OVERALL A LOT OF DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE. SO IT WILL BE THE THIRD DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL. HIGHS WILL ONLY RECOVER TO 55 TO 65 DEGREES FROM NW PA TO
FINDLAY RESPECTIVELY.

HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR INLAND NW PA FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
REACHED FOR A FEW HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS
ASHTABULA AND TRUMBULL COUNTIES MAY HIT FREEZING TOO. WILL LIKELY
SEE A FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR EASTERN OHIO WITH A LATER SHIFT.

THE TEMPERATURE RECOVER WILL BEGIN WITH SATURDAY...BUT WILL BE
SLOW ESPECIALLY AFTER THE CHILLY MORNING START. WILL GET CLOSE TO
NORMAL SATURDAY WITH A GREAT DEAL OF SUN.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN SKY AS WE
AWAIT THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS AND HAVE WARM ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE LOCALLY. THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WARM FRONT MAY BE ABLE
TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS FEATURE SETS UP AND THE DEGREE OF
LIFT. WITH THE ECMWF FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS HAVE BROUGHT THE
PRECIP CHANCES DOWN SLIGHTLY...LEAVING IT BROAD BRUSHED IN THE
CHANCE CATEGORY. TEMPERATURES MORE SOLIDLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD LEAD TO A RELATIVELY WARM
PATTERN MON THRU THU WITH HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S.

THE UPPER TROUGH WEST OF THE AREA WILL INDUCE A MOIST FLOW FROM THE
GULF. THE MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS MOVING THRU THE LAKES
AND BY THU A COLD FRONT SHOULD SAG SE CLOSE TO LAKE ERIE. WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST THRU THE PERIOD AS THE AIRMASS STAYS MOIST
AND UNSTABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH SUNSET. WE WILL THEN AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER
SURGE OF COOLER AIR THAT AS OF 23Z WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT.
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AFTER 08Z. THIS MAY END UP BEING NOTHING
MORE THAN SPRINKLES SO HAVE ONLY PLACED A VICINITY SHOWER IN THE
TAFS FOR A COUPLE HOURS. DONT THINK THE SHOWERS WILL GENERATE ANY
MVFR CEILINGS BUT IF THEY DO IT WILL BE FROM KCAK TO INLAND NW PA.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE LATE MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL HAVE GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUE IN SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LAST REINFORCING COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SE ACROSS LAKE ERIE FRI
MORNING SO EXPECT A SW FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TO TURN NW.
THINK WAVES WILL GET INTO A 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE FOR A WHILE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LAKE BY FRI NIGHT TO DIMINISH THE WINDS AND
WAVES. A SOUTH FLOW WILL GET GOING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
HANG AROUND THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO RUN 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...DJB/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...ADAMS






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