Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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572
FXUS61 KCLE 261721
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
121 PM EDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably cool conditions will continue today as an
upper trough will lingers over the Great Lakes region.  A surface trough
will swing across the forecast area this afternoon kicking off some showers
and thunderstorms in the snowbelt area east of Cleveland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Have added at least a small mention of precip to the entire area
for today and this evening. The guidance coming in does not
support the dry forecast that was out for the west and south.
Satellite clearly showing a strong short wave over northern WI.
This feature will arrive late in the day and should kick off
scattered showers. No changes to temps for now.

Original discussion...
Today will be a couple of degrees cooler than Sunday as a large
upper trough lingers across the Great Lakes. Currently a few
showers remain across inland snowbelt east of Cleveland. Showers
will increase some after sunrise for a couple of hours. More
widespread shower activity will occur this afternoon as a trough
swings across the Eastern Lakes. Better chance of thunder this
afternoon with the trough and the daytime heating. Only in
general thunder but could see some small hail with tsra as
freezing level so low.

Temps will be unseasonably cool tonight with lows from the upper
40s into lower 50s. A weak cold front will push across the
forecast area tonight kicking off some more showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Again showers should be confined to snowbelt area
east of Cleveland. By daybreak Tuesday the 850mb temps plunge to
3c allowing lake effect showers to kick in.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
For Tuesday night am concerned about a likely continuation of lake
effect showers and thunderstorms impacting somewhere in the
"snowbelt". Capes 1800-1900 j/kg to start the night.  Capes decrease
through the night as drier air moves in so left out pops for
Wednesday as high pressure continues to influence the area.
Wednesday night through Thursday night low pressure moves into the
central lakes. A cold front will be north of the region across the
central lakes. Models show sufficient moisture across the area for a
decent chance for showers and thunderstorms as daytime li`s drop to
-6 to -9 according to the GFS. For now will continue with likely
pops. Temps approaching normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday and friday night another low moves from the central plains
into the central lakes. Will continue with likely pops with
continued deep moisture and instability in the area. A cold front
will drop across the area Saturday into Sunday bringing drier air in
the area from the northwest. Will begin Saturday with chance pops
and decrease to slight chance by Sunday.  Temps near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across NW PA and
far NE OH. Starting to see a few weak returns over NW OH. Still
expecting to see an increase in coverage later today and this
evening as upper disturbances rotate across the region. Will
give most areas a tempo mention of showers for a few hours. The
precip should be more persistent in NW PA and ERI will get a
period of predominate showers. Will mention some vicinity
thunder from CLE east as well. Precip chances will end from west
to east beginning around 03z. Do expect a period of MVFR cigs
late tonight and Tuesday morning as the main trough rotates over
the area. Westerly winds will continue to gust to around 20
knots through 00z and then diminish slowly overnight.

OUTLOOK...non- VFR in showers tonight into Tuesday morning.
Non- VFR possible again Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory in effect for today. West winds will
increase to 15 to 20 knots and then swing to the Southwest for a
period as trough swings across the Lake. Small craft ends
tonight as winds diminish to 10 to 15 knots but choppy
conditions will continue.

Tuesday night models have high pressure building across the lower
Ohio valley and west-southwest winds on the lake around 10 knots.
Could see lake effect thunderstorms however east half with the cold
air aloft over the warmer waters. Winds will back slightly Wednesday
as the high drifts east and low pressure approaches the western
lakes. Thursday should see the strongest winds of the period from
the southwest around 15-20kts as low pressure moves through the
central lakes. Friday look for winds from the southwest closer to 10
knots as the gradient relaxes.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     OHZ011-012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/Kubina
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...DJB/TK



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