Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 290758
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
358 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
A weak cold front will finish sinking south across the area this
morning with high pressure building over the region between
tonight and Tuesday. A cold front will move south across the area
on Wednesday. The upper trough will pivot across the area
Thursday into Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The actual cold front is still working its way across the area. As
of 3 AM it could be picked out on radar as a thin line that just
had pushed into inland nw PA and was about to push through
downtown Cleveland. Will continue a small 20 percent chance of a
shower early this morning with it. Otherwise with winds shifting
out of the north-northeast and high pressure slowly building
in...will not only end the shower chances...but also clear out the
skies for this afternoon. Dewpoints will continue to lower today
and highs today will be several degrees cooler than
yesterday...lower to mid 80s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The high will make for quiet and dry weather through Tuesday.
Upper ridge begins to flatten and shortwave energy will begin to
carve out a trough across the eastern Great Lakes to end the work
Models are targeting Wednesday for the arrival of the next cold
front. Enough for scattered showers/thunderstorms with the
frontal passage and will continue the low chance mention. The
cooler air arrives Wednesday night. Will have to deal with lake
clouds and possibly a few lingering lake/instability showers on
Thursday with the cool trough aloft. Highs will be seasonable
leading up to the front in the mid 80s. Will dial back into the
lower and mid 70s by Thursday.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The ridge aloft will begin to build across the Great Lakes by
the Labor Day Weekend but we will have to get the cool Canadian
surface high out of the way. Temperatures aloft will be cool enough
to watch for lake effect clouds Friday morning. The anticyclonic
flow should provide enough subsidence to suppress any showers. Dry
for the holiday weekend. As it looks now, nothing more than a few
fair weather cumulus or wispy cirrus.
Forecast highs will be somewhat higher than guidance as the weekend
goes along given the rising heights. Dew points should remain in
check although they will also slowly increase. Highs in the
lower/mid 80s by Sunday and mid perhaps upper 80s by Labor Day.
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Weak cold front will sag across the area early this morning.
Enough low level moisture for patchy MVFR/IFR fog. MVFR and local
IFR stratus will occur with the frontal passage. Conditions should
improve to VFR by mid morning as drier north winds develop. VFR
this afternoon other than fair weather cumulus.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with thunderstorms along a cold front
A weak cold front will push south of Lake Erie early this
morning. The gradient is rather light but there is a north to
northeast fetch which can generate a modest wind and waves. A
stronger cold front will drop across the lake Wednesday morning.
The north to northeast wind may become strong enough by Wednesday
night and Thursday to approach small craft criteria. The northeast
fetch will persist into Friday and the lake may remain choppy.