Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 211752

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1252 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

With a warm front now to our north...the area will remain mild for
several more days. An initial cold front will cross the area
Sunday night with a stronger low and cold front tracking across
the Great Lakes Wednesday. This will begin to bring us back closer
to normal readings for this time of year by the end of the week.


Adjustments to temperatures this afternoon and sky cover with this
update. Temperatures running a few degrees above previous forecast
and guidance, especially east of I-71 where insolation has been
maximized so far today. Raised highs a few degrees, but expect the
diurnal peak to occur within the next hour or two as dense cirrus
shield rapid expands across the area.

Previous discussion...We may get a sprinkle or two this
morning...but even this is not looking likely enough or impactful
enough to even mention for today. There will likely be a few
breaks in the overcast later to make for quite a pleasant day by
January`s standards. Expecting highs to reach well into the 50s
and likely touching 60. Mansfield record high of 58 degrees and
Youngstown of 59 degrees are both in jeopardy of being broken
while other sites records are all in the mid to upper 60s.


A significant trough will begin to emerge from the desert
southwest today...making its way across the southern plains and
Gulf coast states/Tennessee Valley through the remainder of the
weekend. Minor impulses in the southwest flow aloft may bring a
few rain showers to the area later tonight into Sunday morning.
Areas of fog a possibility again tonight.

Better/deeper moisture arrives later Sunday and more so for
Sunday night and Monday. Still discrepancies in low the surface and aloft. But yesterday afternoons
runs and todays track the low across the Virginia to the east
coast...a bit further north than 24 hours ago. This extends a
trough up across the upper Ohio Valley. Agree with the favorable
set up for showers...most widespread and heaviest rainfall would
occur Sunday night and Monday. As far as rainfall amounts are
concerned...we may end up having a few minor river flooding
issues. But QPF continue to vary. By the second half of Sunday
winds begin to back to the northeast across northwest of
the cool lake. High temperatures will be limited by this and
rainfall across the east...keeping us in the 40s Monday. A few wet
snowflakes may begin to mix in toward Tuesday morning. Precip
chances taper for Tuesday as a brief ridge takes the place of the
departing east coast low.


Storm system will move through the Central Great Lakes on Wednesday.
We will start the day in the warm sector with scattered showers
anticipated. A cold front will sweep eastward with the low by
Wednesday evening with cooler air spilling across the region in its
wake. It will be colder but 8H temperatures only dip to around -6.
So there will be a gradual transition to some snow late Wednesday
night into Thursday. We will have to wait for another upper level
trough to cross the Central Great Lakes on Friday before the coldest
air arrives. So expect to see snow showers continue into Friday. The
better accumulating lake effect snow looks like it may occur Friday
night into Saturday.

Wednesday will be the warm day of the long term with highs in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Cooler Thursday into Friday with highs
remaining in the 30s.


.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
Warm front is now north of the area with temps in the upper 50s
and lower 60s and south flow. Skies have cleared, being in the
warm sector with all the overrunning MVFR and IFR cigs now north
of the area. satellite shows high level moisture streaming north
off the convection in the southeast. For the afternoon will have
VFR conditions with just BKN-OVC250. Overnight guidance does lower
CIGS back down to MVFR and IFR with fog developing as a low level
inversion reforms across the area and low level moisture continues
to increase in southerly flow. Basically after 06-08z brought MVFR
cigs and fog lowering to IFR in a tempo group across dawn.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR developing Saturday night continuing into Monday
in rain. Non-VFR will likely persist on Tuesday across NE OH/NW PA.


Southerly winds are expected today with high pressure moving off the
East Coast. We will then monitor the track of low pressure that is
expect to move from the Southern Plains on Sunday to near the Upper
Ohio River Valley on Monday. This should produce East to northeast
winds which are expected to increase in speed Sunday night into
Monday. The strongest winds will likely be Monday into Monday night.
Current thinking keeps winds below gale force but a small craft
advisory seems likely from Geneva-on-the-lake to the Western Basin
of Lake Erie. We will have to monitor for high water across the
western basin. At this point it doesnt appear we will push water
levels up high enough to issue any headlines but anyone with
interests across the western basin will see higher than normal water

Winds will decrease by Tuesday with a brief lull between storm
systems. The next storm system is forecasted to move into the
Central Great Lakes on Wednesday with an increasing southwesterly
wind ahead of it. As the low passes Wednesday evening winds will
shift to the west and increase.




NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Mullen
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