Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 261655
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1255 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY WAS STALLED ACROSS
SOUTHERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. A LOW WILL TRACK ALONG
THE FRONT TODAY CAUSING SOME PRECIPITATION. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS TODAY REACHING
THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LIFT HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE OVER THE REGION ALLOWING THE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE TO DECREASE. WESTERN AREAS WILL LIKELY BE
DRY SHORTLY WITH THIS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
STILL MAY SEE SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN AS IT ENDS. CANT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AREAS. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL REMAIN LOW SO NO IMPACT TO ROADWAYS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FROM TODAY WILL MOVE EAST QUICKLY EARLY
THIS EVENING. THEN WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE 850 MB TO GET
COLDER AND THE MOISTURE INCREASES AND THE UPPER TROF TO MOVE IN.
BACKED DOWN TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SNOWBELT TONIGHT AND THEN
CONTINUED WITH THE LIKELY POPS ESPECIALLY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE INGREDIENTS GET BETTER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON
SATURDAY. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD LINGER IN THE SNOWBELT MAINLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THAT MUCH SNOWFALL.
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IS IN QUESTION AS MOST MODELS ARE FAIRLY
DRY. THE GFS IS THE MOST PESSIMISTIC. AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

A THREAT OF SOME PRECIPITATION LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A FAST
MOVING RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT
SHOULD BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. A
FAST MOVING POTENT LITTLE UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN IN THE SOUTH AND
WEST BUT STILL EXPECTING A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND A WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN DEVELOPS
IN THE WAKE OF THE HIGH BY WEDNESDAY. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
BEGINNING TO RISE BACK INTO THE 50S FOR HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY. MY
TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE FAST ON THE  PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY BUT STILL AT LEAST A CHANCE THE RAIN ACTIVITY WILL SNEAK
INTO THE REGION BY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO
OR BECOME MIXED WITH SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT TOLEDO. PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT QUICKLY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVING CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AND AGAIN AGAIN LATE SUN
INTO MON.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH TODAY. WINDS DO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL HELP TO SHIFT ICE FLOES
AROUND A BIT HELPING TO ROT THE ICE FIELD. WINDS GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...NO STRONG STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






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