Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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085
FXUS61 KCLE 190719
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
319 AM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front located over Lake Erie will dissipate later today.
High pressure will build over the area tonight. The high will
then dominate the weather the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Not much change to the forecast this morning as the weather
hasn`t changed much either. Still seeing a couple of showers
over NW OH with about the west 2/3 of the area now cloudy.
Expect mid level clouds to overspread the remainder of the area
today. Still some question as to how many new showers will
develop today. All of the new guidance is showing scattered
showers later today over the western and southern ends of the
area. Will go along with the guidance and will have 40ish pops
those areas. Will keep a small chance further east but expect
most of the area to again be dry today. Thunder chances appear
somewhat minimal but there may be enough juice in the lower
atmosphere for some embedded thunder at the southwest end of the
area. The area will dry out tonight as the pesky weak boundary
that has been over the area finally dissipates. This means
Wednesday should also be dry with more sunshine than today.

Stay closer to guidance today given the amount of clouds
expected. The exception is at CLE where I have again gone above
guidance.  More low 80s are expected on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level ridge builds over the forecast area Wednesday night
and hold fast into early next week.  Expect dry conditions to
continue with temperatures running around 10 degrees above normal
for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Little change in the long term forecast.  Models continue in good
agreement with strong upper level ridge overhead, while a front is
stalled to the west while Jose and Maria drift North off the East
Coast.  Temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Little change in the weather is expected the next several hours
with IFR cigs persisting at TOL. Elsewhere mid level clouds will
continue to advance slowly east ahead of a dying cold front.
Will keep all but TOL and FDY VFR through the end of the period.
Expect cigs to eventually dip back to MVFR at FDY. That is also
where best chances for showers exist today. Only TOL...MFD and
FDY will get a precip mention today with best chances from mid
morning thru early afternoon. Light and variable flow will
become SE to S most areas with onshore flow developing at ERI
and CLE this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in fog Wednesday through Friday
mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Shower or isolated thunderstorm possible across the Western Basin
today.   Otherwise high pressure will build over the area.  Winds
will continue to be light from the East to Southeast.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...DJB



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