Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 262218

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
618 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Low pressure over Illinois will move east and cross Lake Erie
Thursday dragging a cold front across the area Thursday morning.
High Pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley on Friday. Another
low pressure system will cross the Great Lakes over the weekend.


Tweaked the timing of the rainshowers slightly for the 630 update.
Still looks like Cleveland could see showers anytime after around
10 pm.

Original discussion...
The situation for tonight is not as clear-cut as we would hope.
Pretty good band of showers coming across northern Indiana. The
best dynamics and over running would indicate a general northern
shift to the precip but cannot rule out a few showers tracking
across the northern counties early tonight, primarily northwest
Ohio. Elsewhere the boundary layer will remain relatively dry with
a downslope southeast wind and there is a decent chance of nothing
more than a few showers/sprinkles farther east from around
Cleveland to Youngstown the first part of the night. Better chance
for showers later tonight as warm advection continues and the low
level jet moves overhead. Cannot rule out thunder with some
elevated instability later but given the dry/cool boundary layer
and the time of night am inclined to not mention it in the
forecast at this time.

Temperatures will try to rise a bit overnight given the wind shift
from southeast to south although the rain will suppress the
temperature rise at times. The hourly temperature forecast will
attempt to depict this.


The surface low should track across Lake Erie Thursday morning with
winds gusty and veering from south to west northwest through the
day. The showers should exit east after the front. Some lake
enhanced/lake effect showers may linger northeast OH and northwest
especially as the winds come around from from the northwest late in
the day.

High pressure will build across the area quickly on Friday with
winds backing to the southwest. With any luck we can get some
sunshine between the low clouds and the increasing high clouds.
Temperatures will begin to recover especially across northwest

Saturday remains problematic with most of the models showing a a
cold front sagging south across the Great Lakes. not sure how far
south the front will push. The shower threat would be confined to
the area near the front. Will continue with a "chance" of showers
mainly across northeast OH and northwest PA. Will continue to be
optimistic about temperatures assuming that the front will be
late in the day or Sunday night. Highs generally from the lower
60s to around 70.


The forecast models are in reasonable agreement with the long
term which gives additional confidence for the forecast. A weak
shortwave moving through the slight northwest flow Sunday may
Bring a few showers across Ohio with the old baroclinic
zone lingering mid state. A Pacific trough lifts across the
northern Plains...although there are some differences in the track
of the resultant low across the Great Lakes. At any rate...expect
a brief warm up going into Tuesday...followed by the cold front.


.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Low pressure will move from near Chicago to Cleveland/Lake Erie by
Thursday morning. Precip will be concentrated along and north of
the low track and south along the cold front. Isolated/scattered
showers possible within warm sector...but VFR. Timing ceilings can
be difficult in situations where the low levels are so dry and we
maintain and easterly flow. Often times it is delayed...therefore
have chosen to delay the onset of the non VFR ceilings a while
longer. In the near term...TOL will be close this afternoon...and
will either remain VFR or be into IFR/MVFR as those lower ceilings
are just across the border in MI. Later...MVFR ceilings/vsby are
a certainty tonight...with even IFR a good bet near the track of
the low and within the heavier precipitation. Winds will be stiff
tonight from the east...veering to the south and and eventually
west for Thursday. Gusts to 25 knots will be common
intermittently...somewhat stronger for ERI when the winds shift

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Thursday and again on Saturday and Sunday.


Track of low pressure moving east away from Chicago tonight will
dictate wind direction/speed and timing of changes for the lake.
Expecting the low to track across the western basin and along the
north shore...with winds on the lake veering from the late afternoon
easterly direction to the southeast for most of tonight...and a
shift to the west-northwest for Thursday. Small craft advisory will
be up through Thursday...although there will be a brief lull across
the western basin with the low passing nearby toward morning. High
pressure passing south of the lake for Thursday nigh calms the lake
and will bring winds around to the southwest as it shifts east.  A
warm front will lift north Friday followed by a cold front Saturday.
Small craft advisory likely again with this system.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
     Friday for LEZ144>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ142-143.


SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Oudeman
MARINE...Oudeman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.