Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 311527
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1127 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will shift east wednesday then a cold
front will push east across the region thursday. High pressure
briefly builds over the area friday into saturday then low pressure
develops over the eastern lakes sunday and stays there through early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Made minor temperature changes to hourly grids.

Original...High pressure will be over the area today...providing
dry conditions. Patches of high clouds will be pushing across the
region and daytime heating will produce sct cu for the afternoon.
Highs will be a little above normal...ranging from the lower 80s
in the west and south to the mid to upper 70s along the snowbelt
lakeshore.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The high pressure ridge slowly exiting the area to the ne should
keep enough of the low level moisture west of the cwa to keep
conditions dry thru the day wed. However...the GFS continues to
allow just enough of this moisture to spread nne back into the
southern co`s by the end of the day wed for an isolated shra or tsra
to develop.

Tonight will be another cool night with lows back into the 50s for
most of the cwa then temps start to warm more on wed as winds begin
to turn more to the se.

A cold front still looks to slowly push east across the area thu.
The first upper trough driving the front weakens so there may not be
enough of a push to get the front far enough se of the cwa for the
rain threat to be done in the se half by thu night. The timing of
the front with the shra/tsra and clouds should help to limit heating
on thu and thus limit the strength of the storms.

A second s/w pushes thru late thu night into fri finally pushing the
front and rain threat well se of the area. However...the models show
good low level moisture wrapping se into the snowbelt on fri so
there could be a few light shra so will keep slight chc pops
lingering there on fri. High pressure builds in for fri night with
drier and cooler temps with lows expected to fall back into the 50s
again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A deepening trough is progged to drop into the upper midwest early
in the weekend and spin up a surface low and cold front. Some of the
models are posting QPF on Saturday. The warm advection is not that
strong and the warm front would seem to be weak. Feel the better
chance for any warm advection showers/storms would be to the west
where the low level jet is increasing. Will keep the forecast dry on
Saturday except kept the small chance of showers/storms around
Toledo.

Should be a better chance for showers and storms Saturday night into
Sunday as the trough aloft begins to drop across the Great Lakes and
the cold front approaches. Temperatures are tricky on Sunday.
Stayed close to the blended guidance with highs generally in the mid
70s although I could see 5 degrees either side of that depending on
the amount of clouds and showers and the timing of the front.

Should be cooler by Monday with the trough aloft overhead and still
a chance of showers. Highs may struggle to get out of the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure will build over eastern Canada and winds will come
around from the north to northeast at all TAF sites today veering
more easterly tonight. VFR conditions will continue with patches
of high clouds. Scattered cumulus will develop inland this
afternoon and dissipate by evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR Thursday with shra and possible tsra.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build across eastern Canada today into Wednesday
as a cold front begins to track across the midwest. This will bring
the flow on Lake Erie around from the north to northeast today and
easterly tonight into Wednesday. The easterly gradient will increase
enough that we should see the wind increase to 15 knots or so on the
open lake by Wednesday morning and a little chop will develop on the
west half of the lake by Wednesday morning.

The cold front will cross the lake on Thursday and the wind will
shift to southwest fairly quickly. It will take a while to get the
wind to veer more from the northwest, probably not until Thursday
evening, but the gradient will remain rather light.

Then the pattern repeats into the weekend. The wind will veer to the
northeast by Friday night to east and southeast on Saturday ahead of
the next front on Sunday. At no time does it appear as though the
wind or waves will be enough to require a small craft advisory.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/TK
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik



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