Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 051415
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1015 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE NORTH
INTO EASTERN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TUESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THEN STALL ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THINNING BUT WILL THICKEN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE
WITH THIS UPDATE.

ORIGINAL...A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
BEGIN TO BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEAST. IR SATELLITE SHOWS MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALREADY MOVING INTO
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SUN TODAY BUT THIS
AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE THICKENING ESPECIALLY EAST. HIGHS SHOULD
REACH THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY DISTURBANCE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO MODELS SUGGESTING A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM PROGRESSION
WOULD FAVOR A DRY NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL BRING CLOUDS IN BUT WILL
HOLD OFF POPS UNTIL MONDAY. FOR MONDAY WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS EAST
AND DRY WEST. MONDAY NIGHT THE DISTURBANCE PULLS EAST AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WNW. GFS AGAIN FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH
THE GFS SHOWING THE FRONT EAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN WHILE THE NAM HAS
IT FROM NRN LOWER MI SOUTHWEST TO NEAR CHICAGO. BELIEVE WE GET
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY DRY BUT...DESPITE TIMING DIFFERENCES
BOTH MODELS BRING THE FRONT INTO THE AREA TUESDAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE WEST IN THE MORNING AND MOST AREAS LIKELY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BEGIN MOSTLY DRY BUT DURING THE AFTERNOON
THE GFS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO SRN ILLINOIS. THIS LIFTS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH DEEP MOISTURE AFFECTING MAINLY THE SWRN COUNTIES. WILL COVER
WITH CHANCE POPS. TREND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL
HAVE CHANCE POPS SPREADING NORTHEAST ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WET PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE PERIOD AS STALLED FRONT LOOKS TO
STAY NEAR THE AREA WHILE UPPER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE LAKES BATTLE FOR CONTROL. WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHRA/TSRA GOING THRU THE PERIOD. AIRMASS SHOWS INCREASING TEMPS AT
850 MB SO WARMING TREND SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BE
GONE BY 14Z ALTHOUGH SOME 6SM HZ MAY EXIST TODAY. SCT TO BKN CIRRUS
SHOULD PERSIST TODAY WITH ADDED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND CAK AND YNG
LATE TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT.

LAKE BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LAKESHORE BY MIDDAY AND SHOULD
LAST UNTIL ABOUT 02Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE THRU THU IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS WITH AFTERNOON LAKEBREEZE TODAY. SOUTH FLOW WILL
INCREASE MON AND MON NIGHT TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE LAKE TUE EVENING TURNING WINDS NW TUE NIGHT
THEN DIMINISHING AND BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ON THU.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS



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