Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 140123
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
823 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST TONIGHT. AS THE HIGH PASSES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL
ALLOW A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY ON MONDAY AND MOVE TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE LAKE EFFECT WARNING FOR
NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA. STILL SNOWING IN THE AREA BUT NOT EXPECTING
MUCH OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN.

ORIGINAL...LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES TO FLOW ACROSS NORTHEAST
OHIO AND NW PA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST MOST PERSISTENT BANDS
WERE WOBBLING NEAR THE OH/PA BORDER. HAVE KEPT THE LAKE EFFECT
WARNING GOING FOR ASHTABULA...ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES SINCE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL STILL GETTING SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
FROM THE CONNECTION TO LAKE HURON.

ELSEWHERE THE SNOW HAS BECOME VERY CONVECTIVE LOOKING AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE ALLOWED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTIES TO EXPIRE. WORST
CASE IN HIS REGION OR UNDER ANY OF THE PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE AN INCH OR OR SO.

TI WILL BE COLD TONIGHT BUT THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HAVE CANCELED THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA SINCE WINDS LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
EASTERN AREAS WILL HAVE ENOUGH WIND THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
TO ALL WIND CHILLS TO DIP TO MINUS 10 OR COLDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ON SUNDAY. CANT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES ACROSS NW PA THROUGH MID MORNING.
ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE THEN WILL
AWAIT A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY MONDAY NIGHT MAY
REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TOT EH SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

GRADUAL WARMING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE MARINE PACKAGE THIS MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE
TO BLOW TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. SPEEDS SHOULD BE PEAKING
AND EXPECT THE FLOW TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY. BY LATE TONIGHT
THE FLOW WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND THE THREAT FOR ICING WILL BE
OVER. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL BE
OVER OHIO AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH EAST OF
THE LAKE DURING THE DAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING. A PAIR OF
LOWS WILL IMPACT THE REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS
BECOMING WESTERLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THESE SYSTEMS. IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKE SPEEDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE ANY HEADLINES.
GIVEN THE COLD WEATHER EXPECTED THE NEXT 36 HOURS EXPECT THERE TO
BE A LOT OF ICE ON THE LAKE AGAIN BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIMINISHING TREND WITH NIGHTFALL FOR THE SNOW SHOWERS...LONGER
PERIODS BETWEEN SNOW SHOWERS AND ALSO LONGER PERIODS BETWEEN
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. BEST CHANCES REMAIN FOR CLE/CAK/YNG/ERI.
LITTLE OR NO SNOW FOR TOL/FDY/MFD. LAKE HURON CONNECTED BAND INTO
ERIE HAS SHIFTED EAST...BUT MAY WOBBLE BACK WESTWARD LATER
TONIGHT. OTHER THAN ERI...SNOW ENDS/TAPERS TO FLURRIES BY MIDNIGHT
OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ERI CHANCE REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA NEAR 00Z MON.

OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT. NON VFR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...EASTERN SITES. NON VFR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO LATE TONIGHT ALONG
WITH THE THREAT FOR FREEZING SPRAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO
THE LAKE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SUN MORNING WILL TURN OUT OF THE
SE THEN SOUTH LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT. A LOW CROSSING THE AREA TUE
WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE NW FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED BUT WINDS
SPEEDS SHOULD MAINLY STAY 20 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR OHZ010>014-
     020>023-029>033-038-089.
PA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ061-
     146>149-166>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...ADAMS


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