Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 202028
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
328 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will move east across the area by
Tuesday afternoon where it will gradually dissipate. High
pressure over the eastern United States will extend back west
over the local area through Wednesday. A series of weak low
pressure systems will move northeast across the central Great
Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. A weak cold front will sag
south across the area Thursday and become nearly stationary. The
front will move back north of the area Friday. The overall
pattern will keep unseasonably mild temperatures across the area
through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

Fair weather will persist through the night with mainly high
clouds across the area. Warm air advection continues to take
place from the east southeast ahead of a surface trough that is
expected to move through the area Tuesday. The gradient between
the trough and the east coast high will tighten up a bit keeping
winds around 7 or 8 knots all night. This will help keep
temperatures up during the night as well and not expecting
temperatures to fall as cold as this morning. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 30s in the east to lower and middle 40s in
the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Broad upper level trough is progged to move east across the area
during the day Tuesday.  This trough will reflect a surface trough
that is expected to bring with it a minimal amount of moisture.
Models are hinting at southern system stealing some of the moisture
away from the north.  This will make for a tricky forecast in how
high to go with POPs on Tuesday.  Model blend suggests leaning
toward a chance POPs all areas except in portions of the east where
some lake enhancement will take place.  So will go with likely POPs
in that area for Tuesday afternoon.

Trough begins to dissipate Tuesday night and a return back to fair
weather will take place by Wednesday as high pressure on the east
coast takes over again.  A cold front is expected to sag south to
the northern tier of the forecast area by Thursday night and become
nearly stationary.  A westerly flow off Lake Erie will drop
temperatures considerably over the northeast snowbelt compared to
the rest of the forecast area Thursday. Eventually flow becomes
easterly by Thursday night pushing the cold lake air back north.

A storm system will approach from the West Thursday night forcing
the stationary front back north as a warm front  A fairly strong
push of warm air will take place ahead of the low by Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A panhandle hook is progged to track across the central Great Lakes
by Friday night. The models have been consistent with a deep low
although there is still some disagreement on the exact track.
Nonetheless, a strong cold front will sweep across the forecast area
Friday evening. Will continue to mention thunder and there will
likely be wind. Some wrap around rain and snow showers are possible
Saturday as the upper trough crosses the Great Lakes. The model runs
today are a bit colder and there may be a period of lake
effect/enhanced snow showers later Saturday into early Sunday,
primarily in the snowbelt, but probably nothing too significant.

Temperatures will be near normal Saturday into Sunday but it will
seem cold considering how warm it has been recently, especially on
Saturday with the blustery wind.

The system is progressive and not really a pattern changer. The flow
is progged to be generally zonal early next week with heights
rebounding above normal again.

The models are all over the place as to whether there can be a quick
moving over running short wave on Monday. The ECMWF and Canadian
model are waiting for a somewhat stronger system by Tuesday while
the GFS insists on the Monday over running wave. Will just have
"chance" pops for the time being, slowly ramping up early next week.
&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions will continue this afternoon with a light east
wind except northeast at KCLE and KERI. The flow will be coming
around from the southeast and south tonight and Tuesday morning
ahead of a cold front. Conditions will remain VFR until the
showers begin ahead of the cold front Tuesday afternoon. The
south wind will become a bit gusty on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR developing by Tuesday evening continuing
possibly into Wednesday morning. Non-VFR will develop again
Thursday or Thursday night and continue at times through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
East winds on Lake Erie will veer to south by Tuesday afternoon
ahead of a weak cold front. Winds will become rather brisk ahead of
the front but a small craft advisory is not expected. Another weak
cold front will drop across the lake on Thursday but winds will
remain rather light.

The big winds are coming late in the week. A deep low pressure
system will cross the central Great Lakes Friday night. Winds will
veer to the east and southeast ahead of the system on Friday with
strong southwest winds behind the associated cold front developing
later Friday night and especially on Saturday. Gale warnings may be
needed by Saturday.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik


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