Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KCLE 011724
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
124 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TODAY. A
SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD IN MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 1 PM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WAS LOCATED ALONG A
LINE FROM MARION-AKRON-WARREN. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DID
UPGRADE SOUTHERN OHIO TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY BUT
MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WHERE THE INSTABILITY IS BETTER. LOWERED HIGHS A FEW MORE
DEGREES IN THE FAR NORTH AS WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH.

NEXT ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING
INTO IOWA SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. REFINED TIMING AND
RAISED POPS TO NEAR 100 PERCENT.

ORIGINAL...FOLLOWED THE SREF/HRRR COMBO THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD. RADAR SHOWS PLENTY OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS BECOMING MORE PATCHY AS
THE BEST OVERRUNNING SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL BEGIN WITH
CATEGORICAL TO LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN
TAPER QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. FOR THE AFTERNOON MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW AFTERNOON INSTABILITY MAINLY SOUTH WITH CAPES
1000-1200J/KG ON BUFKIT NAM12 SOUNDINGS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE INVOF
THE COLD FRONT FROM ROUGHLY KGKJ TO KYNG TO KMFD/KMNN. HIGHS FROM
THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST TO NEAR 70 SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THE SREF SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH. MONDAY MORNING
SHOULD BEGIN WITH PRECIP PULLING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WILL BEGIN
WITH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL EXTREME NORTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD
BE DRYING OUT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. NEXT RAIN CHANCE
COMES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. MODELS BRING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEFORE DAWN WEDNESDAY
SO WILL HAVE A CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TOWARDS
MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BOOST TO LIKELY AND CONTINUE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE GFS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A WINTER PATTERN RATHER
THAN A SPRING PATTERN.  MEGA UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO SETTLE IN OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE
TO AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS IT
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREA. A VERY
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY.

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SET UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THURSDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS BACK WEST OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. EVENTUALLY BY SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EXTEND BACK WEST OVER THE LOCAL AREA
THURSDAY AND THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY PULL OUT TO THE EAST OVER THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER MUCH THROUGH
SATURDAY. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AND A RETURN BACK TO THE 70S AND UPPER
60S FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR ERI TO NEAR FDY. NORTH OF THE FRONT
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS...WHILE MVFR SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTH OVER ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT
RAINSHOWERS WITH A CHANCE FOR TSRA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO. JUST PUT IN VCTS FOR SOUTHERN TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. MODELS NOT IN TOTAL AGREEMENT WITH TRACK AND TIMING OF
LOW...BUT LOW SHOULD BE NEAR PIT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR INTO MONDAY...LINGERING LONGER ACROSS NE OH/NW
PA IN IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND TSRA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS ON THE
LAKE THIS MORNING DOWN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE DAY AS WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ALONG A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY. ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS
TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY BUT NOT EXPECTED
TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.