Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 261401
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1001 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016
A warm front will lift north across the Great Lakes today. Low
pressure over Iowa will move to near Chicago by this evening and
cross Lake Erie late tonight. The associated cold front will push
across the area by early Thursday. High Pressure will build over
the area for Friday. Another low pressure system will cross the
Great Lakes over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Strong warm advection will push across the eastern Great Lakes
today but will fight the dry boundary layer. The best upward
motion/instability is elevated. With the exception of the I-75
corridor, most will struggle to get more than a shower or
sprinkle. The Toledo area will likely see off and on showers for a
while. Tried to add more resolution to the hourly PoP/Weather
forecast into this evening otherwise no other changes for the
mid morning update.
Original "Today" discussion(s)...
Lot`s of radar returns over Indiana but most of that is precip
not reaching the ground. Comfortable limiting the mention of rain
to our NW OH zones for the next 12 hours or so. A few sprinkles
could occur further east during that time but the main show will
hold off till evening.
The low level flow remains NE over the eastern half of the area.
This has allowed lake effect clouds to linger over portions of NE
OH and NW PA. These clouds should go away shortly as the flow
becomes more easterly. But by then...mid and high level clouds
will be on the increase. These clouds will develop in response to
warm air advection occurring aloft. The lower atmosphere remains
very dry so not expecting much in the way of precip today expect
over northwest Ohio. Already had a mention of showers that area
and will keep that going. Elsewhere a few sprinkles or some virga
could occur during the daylight hours. Better chances for precip
will arrive after 00z. Although warming will be occurring aloft
thick clouds will keep temps from getting warmer than they were
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Have continued to fine tune the precipitation forecast for
tonight. Showers will likely be ongoing over NW OH and Lake Erie
at the start of the period. Expect this precip to expand east and
south during the evening as the surface low heads this way. The
showers should reach the I-71 corridor by mid to late evening and
the far southeast corner of the area by 06z. Will stick with high
precip chances. The models continue to have timing differences
with the surface low as the NAM remains slower than both the ECMWF
and GFS. The later two models have the low near BUF at 18z
Thursday. Will follow thats scenario which means the rain will
taper off from west to east during the day. Some showers will
linger into early Friday downwind of Lake Erie but high pressure will
build in quickly during the day so will keep the daylight hours
Friday dry all areas. Another storm system will impact the area
over the weekend. Initially the main baroclinic or lifting zone
will be north of the area and precip chances through early
Saturday will be confined to the northern end of the forecast
area. Precip chances will increase over the remainder of the area
on Saturday and persist into Saturday night. There will be a good
push of warm air with this system and have continued to nudge
temps up for Saturday. Have used a blend of guidance temps
elsewhere during the period.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long range upper level pattern trending toward broad upper level
ridge expected over the central part of the United States that
will gradually shift east across the Great Lakes Region. As this
occurs, shortwave troughs will slide east in advance of the ridge
Sunday and in the wake of the ridge Tuesday. Both of these systems
will push surface low pressure systems quickly east over the area
with surface high pressure in between. The overall trend during
this period will be for mild temperatures for late October. Warm
air advection will take place in advance of the low pressure
system Sunday. The storm system will weaken with no cold air
intrusion following the low and in advance of the high pressure.
Once the high moves east, the next storm system will tap into the
Gulf of Mexico warm air once again for early next week. As far as
moisture goes, it is fairly limited so chances of rain early in
the period will be minimal and rest of the period should be dry.
.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
High clouds spreading east across the area at this time. Low
pressure will move east across the area and spread some light rain
across the region. Best chance so far appears to be across the
northern tier TAF sites during this forecast period. Otherwise,
southern areas will remain VFR with a chance for some rain. MVFR
expected across the area moving from west to east during the
afternoon and evening. Winds will be generally east southeast at
around 8 knots but stronger at 15 to 25 knots toward evening and
overnight at Erie.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Thursday and again on Saturday and Sunday.
Low pressure will advance east across the area and this will
tighten up the gradient across the lake. Hence, winds will
increase out of the east during the day today. There is a
possibility that we could approach small craft criteria,
especially on the west end of the lake late today. Will hold off
on issuing a small craft advisory at this time since it will be
very short lived at best. A small craft advisory may be needed
Thursday as the low pushes east and develops a westerly flow
across the lake and increases the winds to 15 to 25 knots. Winds
diminish quickly Thursday night and then increase again by Friday
night out of the South to Southwest. Once again, another short
lived event will take place as winds diminish fairly quickly for
Saturday night and Sunday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Thursday for LEZ142-143.