Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241933
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
333 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure anchored over the Eastern Great Lakes will weaken and
shift east Tuesday.  This will allow low pressure to track across
the Northern lakes, forcing a cold front across the area Wednesday
evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Same ole same ole.   Strong upper ridge remains anchored over the
forecast area.   Expect clear skies with temps from the upper 50s
into the lower 60s.   Could see a little patchy morning fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Models remain in good agreement with the strong upper ridge over the
forecast area through the early part of the work week.  Dry
conditions and well above normal temps continue.

Not many changes to the short term again today.  Tuesday will be
dry...sunny and warm as high pressure lingers over the region.  See
no reason why temps won`t reach 90 degrees yet again over much of
the area.  The cold front is still on track for Wednesday.  The
model are not very excited about the potential for precip.  This
seems reasonable given how dry the airmass will be.  For the second
day in a row will trim precip chances back and go with no more than
20ish pops in the east.  Will also keep Wedneday night and Thursday
night dry even with decent cold air advection ongoing.  It should
just be too dry for showers to develop.  Given the airmass change
have stayed fairly close to guidance for temps on Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some disagreement on the timing of the front on Friday but a it
looks to be a relatively strong cold front associated with a sharp
short wave progged to dive south across the Great Lakes.
Temperatures could sneak up ahead of the front on Friday, perhaps
pushing 70 in some areas, but much cooler air will follow Friday
night into Saturday. Moisture will be limited with the system with
the best chance for lake enhanced showers in the snowbelt. The lake
effect showers will probably linger into Saturday in the snowbelt as
850 mb temperatures are progged to drop to between 3-5C. The models
are trending to a short lived trough as heights are progged to begin
rising on Sunday. High temperatures may struggle to get much above
60 on Saturday but recover toward normal on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions with clear skies will continue rest of today as
high pressure remains anchored over forecast area.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in patchy morning fog Monday and
Tuesday morning. Non- VFR possible Wednesday evening/Thursday
in -shra/-tsra with a cold front Wednesday evening. This will
usher in much cooler temperatures Thursday and flow off of the
lake.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will remain in place into
early Wednesday with quiet weather continuing on the lake. Winds
will remain variable under 10 knots the next couple of days.  Winds
will become onshore in the nearshore waters each day.  A cold front
will push southeast of the lake on Wednesday with winds quickly
becoming northerly.  There is a brief window for close to small
craft conditions late Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Another front
will cross the lake on Friday and small craft conditions appear
likely at that time.  Winds Thursday and Friday will be north to
northwest.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB/Kubina
LONG TERM...Kubina
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Kubina


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