Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 280245
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1045 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...DRIER AIR NOW WORKING INTO THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES WEST
AND WEAKENING/DECREASING RETURN ON THE RADAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL
LAKESHORE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
THERE A COUPLE MORE HOURS THEN DECREASE TO CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE
BY MORNING. ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO PRECIP NOW LITTLE MORE THAN
FLURRIES. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS THEN DROP TO
A CHANCE OF FLURRIES. FORECAST SOUNDING MORE UNSTABLE ACROSS NWRN
PA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY ACROSS ERIE AND HIGH CHANCE
CRAWFORD.

ORIGINAL...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. LIFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
FROM LAKE ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE
EVENING COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT
LOCATIONS THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP
THE LAKESHORE THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER
COULD TOP OUT AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. GRADUAL IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EXTREME EAST INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR -SN LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...TK/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY





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