Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 170505
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
105 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF IOWA INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL MOVE
EAST AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AT THE SURFACE AS BROAD
UPPER LEVEL 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES TONIGHT. THE EXIT OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW A WARMING
TREND TO DEVELOP. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM.

BIG QUESTION IS HOW COLD WILL IT GET TONIGHT. SOME CIRRUS WILL BE
PRESENT BUT LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN LOW TEMPS.

BASED ON LATEST DATA...FEEL WINDS MAY BE LIGHTER AND MORE EAST FOR A
LONGER PART OF THE NIGHT THAN THOUGHT EARLIER SO HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS
DOWN ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO IN MUCH OF THE EAST PART OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST TO MAINE BY SATURDAY MORNING
ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD EAST INTO THE REGION. THE RIDGE
WILL THEN PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN RY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA...SOME
LIMITED MOISTURE CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE BOUNDARY. WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF SHOWERS GOING FOR THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
WITH THE FRONT.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY WITH A BRIEF BREAK FROM
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

DUE TO THE RETREAT OF THE COLD AIR MASS IN PLACE RIGHT NOW BEGINNING
ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD START TO SEE WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE.
THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE
AREA. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN NOT SHOWING ANY MAJOR COLD AIR
OUTBREAKS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. WILL BE
LEANING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE SREF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. SREF HAS VERIFIED QUITE WELL OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND
APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE OVER THE CURRENT SITUATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST...STARTING 12Z MONDAY...IS CHARACTERIZED BY
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
BECOME NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO BUCKLE AS
LONG WAVE RIDGE BEGINS TO SET UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY
MONDAY. THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND PUSHES EAST IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LOW THAT WILL DIG OVER THE PAC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE THEN LINGERS
OVER THE CLEVELAND FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY. IN
SHORT...WE ARE DONE WITH THE COLD FOR AWHILE AND CAN FINALLY WELCOME
SPRING.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST BET FOR RAIN AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE THUNDER...SO THIS UPDATE
WILL ONLY MENTION RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE RAMAONS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ONLY CIRRUS TO
CONTEND WITH TODAY. THE EAST FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH LATER
THIS MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AND PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS OVER THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT
AND AN EAST OR SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. THE WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST ON THE WEST END FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING. THE WINDS AND WAVES COULD BE CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP THE WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND THE
WAVES TO 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. THE WINDS AND WAVES
WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A POSSIBLE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED.

SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN SUNDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY. THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT THEY SHOULD BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT PROMPT THE NEED
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HOWEVER...AS THE WINDS BECOME  NORTHWEST
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST END.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KIELTYKA






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