Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291130
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
630 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN AND INTO ONTARIO CANADA TODAY. THIS WILL BRING A LIGHT
WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING...AND SNOW SHOWERS
TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVERHEAD FOR SATURDAY AND THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE SET TO TRACK
ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN HAS
MADE ITS WAY INTO NORTHWEST OHIO AS OF 6 AM. WHILE RADAR RETURNS
LOOK SCANT NOW...EXPECTING THE RETURNS TO BLOSSOM THIS MORNING AS
BETTER UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF MOISTENING
OF THE COLUMN THAT NEEDS TO TAKE PLACE TOO. LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS
STILL EXPECTED...BUT ONLY AMOUNT TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH
FOR THE I-75 CORRIDOR AND EAST TO MANSFIELD WHERE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY STOOD. FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY ALSO GRABS THE CLE/CAK/YNG
CORRIDOR. LESS FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED HERE AS THE WINDOW
APPEARS TO BE SMALLER FROM WHEN PRECIPITATION REACHES THE GROUND
TO WHEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING. IT IS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOUGH THAT ROAD TEMPERATURES WILL LAG AIR
TEMPERATURE AND REMAIN BELOW FREEZING LONGER. ONLY CHANGE MADE
WITH THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE WAS TO WORD THE FREEZING RAIN AS
LIGHT IN THE FORECAST GRIDS/ZONES. ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA THE
COLD AIR WILL BE DEEPER AND PRECIPITATION MAY NOT CHANGE OVER TO
ANY FREEZING RAIN...BUT INSTEAD BE SNOW AND/OR LIGHT SLEET. DUE TO
THE WINTRY MIX OF MULTIPLE FREEZING PRECIPITATION TYPES...A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. WITH THE COLD AIR STICKING AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY...THIS ADVISORY SPANS FROM MID MORNING ONWARD. A
SLUSHY INCH OF SNOW/LIGHT SLEET IS POSSIBLE TODAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL TOP OUT IN THE 30S. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON COLD AIR WILL BE
MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...A TRANSITION
BACK TO WET SNOW IS LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE 6 PM.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CLEAN
TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW...AND THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TWO RE-ENFORCING SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL
PERPETUATE THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FLOW ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST OH/NW PA. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THEREFORE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE SNOWBELT
COUNTIES. CUYAHOGA SUMMIT AND PORTAGE WILL HAVE TO MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT.
FOR NOW HAVE 1 TO 3 FORECAST. HAVE SLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
AIR BY SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...WAITING
UNTIL LATE EVENING FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 20S.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE TEENS BY MORNING AND
STAY THAT WAY OR FALL A FEW MORE DEGREES ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
BRING WIND CHILL VALUES TO NEAR ZERO BY DAWN FRIDAY AND GO BELOW
ZERO FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOME
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SNOWBELT FRIDAY WITH
LAKE ENHANCEMENT UNTIL THE RIDGE CAN DO ITS JOB AT SUPPRESSING THE
SHOWERS FRIDAY EVENING. ONLY LIGHT...LESS THAN A COUPLE INCHES
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY FOR THE SNOWBELT. OTHERS WILL BE DRY BUT
CONTINUE TO BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY FOR SATURDAY
WITH FAIR...BUT COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE BEGINNINGS OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND A SYSTEM THAT WILL
BE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE STORM SYSTEM ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FURTHER
SOUTH THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS ACTUALLY SEEMS REASONABLE AND SHOULD
TAKE THE HEAVIER SNOWFALL FURTHER SOUTH. IT NOW APPEARS THAT IT
COULD BE SIMILAR TO AN EVENT THAT PRODUCED 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE AREA LAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SO AT
WORST CASE IT APPEARS THAT AN ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HOWEVER WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MODEL RUNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS TO
PINPOINT THE TRACK OF THIS STORM.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. MODELS THEN STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF
YET ANOTHER CLIPPER STORM SYSTEM THAT COULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY EVENING BUT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. HOPEFULLY
DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME CLEAR OVER THE WEEKEND.

IT WILL BE COLD THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS. IF SKIES CAN CLEAR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING LOWS MAY ONCE AGAIN DIP BELOW ZERO
AWAY FROM THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY WORSEN WITH TIME. AFTER SUNRISE MOST AREAS WILL BE
DOWN TO IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS FREEZING RAIN BUT THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT COULD BE BRIEF. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. IN
THE EAST...EXPECTING MOSTLY SNOW AT ERIE WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN SPEED OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO
MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY.

.OUTLOOK...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE EAST
FRIDAY. MORE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY NIGHT IN
SNOW.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS IN THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. HOWEVER AS THE
LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASS THIS EVENING WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST AND WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO 30 KNOTS FOR A FEW HOURS.
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN MOVES OVER OHIO. THE
NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY WHICH WILL KEEP NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS GOING INTO MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NEAR THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY BY TUESDAY MORNING.

THE LAKE IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED BUT THE STRONGER WINDS TODAY INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAY CAUSE ICE FLOES OR AT LEAST CAUSE ISSUES WITH
ANY CHANNELS CREATED BY THE ICE CUTTERS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR OHZ012>014-023-089.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ010-011-
     020>022-031>033-038.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR OHZ003-006>009-
     017>019-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...MULLEN





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