Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 231948
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
348 PM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
Low pressure will track across the eastern Great Lakes tonight
and move off the east coast by Monday morning. Cooler air will
return on Monday as high pressure builds across eastern Canada and
the eastern Great Lakes early this week. Low pressure will develop
over the plains states and move to the lower Great lakes on
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
The surface low was approaching Lake Michigan and moving quickly
southeast. A small area of showers has been expanding across
northern lower MI and Lake Huron. The surface low is progged to
track near Erie PA so the initial showers will likely be limited to
NW PA. Extrapolation puts the first radar echoes into NW PA about
730 PM. Nothing happening south of the low in the warm sector and
this will likely continue to be the case until the associated cold
front sags across Lake Erie and picks up additional low level
moisture tonight. There will likely not be any showers outside of NE
OH and NW PA. 850 mb temperatures drop enough for lake effect
showers after 07Z or so. It will remain relatively mild this evening
although the breeze will persist. Low in the 40s later, perhaps
near 50 along the Lake Erie lakeshore.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Decent trough progged to linger over the northeast states through
the first half of the week. Surface high pressure will build and
drift east providing a prolonged northwest flow in the boundary
layer. A weak short wave will skirt the eastern Great Lakes later
Monday with perhaps another weak wave Tuesday morning. Subsidence
will increase otherwise. The lake effect clouds will likely have
limited production except for the Huron connection which will start
out across northwest PA on Monday and may drift west a bit by
Tuesday morning, perhaps into Ashtabula and Trumbull Counties. Will
have a low pop chance of showers in these areas with sunnier skies
by the west. It will probably end up mostly sunny across NW OH.
Temperatures will be chilly with little temperature recovery Monday
except across NW OH where it will be sunnier. The frost/freeze
program ends Monday 10/24 so we will not issue frost advisories but
there will be frost Monday night especially NW OH where it will be
mostly clear and winds will lighten. Highs Tuesday may be a degree
or two cooler than Monday. High clouds will begin to stream in
Tuesday night as warm advection develops over the midwest. It will
likely still get cold Tuesday night with lows down around freezing
NE OH and NW PA.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The models continue to show a band of warm advection moisture and
possible light shra setting up over the north on wed.
An upper trough and sfc low should be pushing across the area thu
producing widespread rain. The wx pattern will remain active with
the upper trough tending to remain over the lakes as a series of
s/w`s move thru the base of the trough, however from day top day
there are a lot of model differences, especially on the weekend.
Will keep a threat for shra in the forecast fri thru sun. Its
possible thu night thru sat night that low level temps could get
cold enough between 06z and 16z that some snow or graupel could try
and mix in with the rain as right now we are looking for lows
generally around 40, maybe some upper 30s.
.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
A cold front with a low along the front is still on track to drop se
across the area this evening. Expect clouds to spread se into the
area with this system with mainly the snowbelt and nearby bordering
area seeing sct shra with areas of mvfr occurring. The system is
fast-moving so drier air will be coming in from the nw during the
second half of the night thru mon morning leading to improving
conditions. Lake enhanced shra and probable mvfr conditions will
likely hang around eri...yng and maybe cle and cak thru the day
SW winds will shift to nw between 00z and 06z with wind gusts around
20 knots at times.
OUTLOOK...Areas of non vfr likely to hang on for eri and yng thru
tue then widespread non vfr should develop wed into thu before
shifting back to just the snowbelt for thu night into fri.
The brief lull in sca conditions this evening will end later tonight
as winds shift to nw with colder air again spreading se across the
lake leading to sca conditions for about the east three fourth`s of
the lake. High pressure will finally move across the lake to
diminish the winds on tue. Winds pick back up from the east wed into
wed night as a low approaches from the west. Sca conditions may
develop ahead of the low but the track of the low near the lake make
the situation uncertain. The low will be weakening as it crosses the
lake so may not get a strong enough west or nw wind behind the low
to have sca conditions either for thu night into friday.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
Tuesday for LEZ144>149.