Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 151104
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
604 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the area today. The high will
move off the East Coast Monday and allow low pressure to track
northeast across the western Great Lakes Tuesday. A warm front
associated with the low will lift north north across the area
early Tuesday. A cold front will follow from the west later in the
day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
High pressure will build across the area today. Satellite however
shows a large amount of high level moisture to our west about to
begin streaming into the area. The NAM suggests the moisture thins
a bit during the day but still believe sun will be filtered at
best across the southern half of the area. Further north do
expect more sun. Satellite also shows shoreline stratus from
eastern Cuyahoga county northeast across Erie county so will
continue this into the morning before thinning. Highs in the 30s
look reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure moves off the east coast Sunday night and early
Monday as low pressure moves northeast through the central plains.
Between these two systems increasing southerly flow will begin
bringing back moisture into the area from the south during the
day. A warm front associated with the low will move into the area
Monday night and should move north of the area early Tuesday. A
cold front will follow from the west Tuesday afternoon. Will bring
chance pops back into the area from the southwest Monday...mainly
during the afternoon as GLFMX moisture overruns the approaching
warm front. The best chance of rain should be Monday night with
the warm front moving into the area...as well as Tuesday ahead of
and with the cold front. Will have mostly categorical pops through
the period. Tuesday night the NAM shows colder air aloft moves in
with a short wave trough however this is significantly out of
phase with the GFS which shows an upper trough over Missouri. This
will have an impact on ptype for lingering precip so will begin as
rain and then just go with rain and snow. The GFS shows an upper
trough moving in across the entire great lakes region on
Wednesday. Will continue chance pops for mostly rain. Temps above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The models generally show the last s/w trough over the cwa thu
morning then an upper ridge builds over the region fri into sat.
There is a weak s/w riding up the east side of the main trough to
the west that could bring enough moisture for a chc for rain later
fri thru sat depending on the exact timing. Temps should gradually
warm further above normal thru the period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Patches of fog...stratus and stratocu affecting MFD...CAK...YNG AND
ERI should dissipate by late morning leaving sct to bkn high clouds
across the area into late tonight when some mid level clouds will
start to arrive. Winds will remain light and variable.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Monday evening through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure in the area will keep winds light into monday then as
the high shifts off to the east and a low moves ne into lake mic the
winds on leri will veer to the south and start increasing mon night
into tue. Winds probably get into a 15 to 25 knot range at some
point tue but more likely tue night into wed with the passage of a
cold front. High pressure will spread ne into lake erie later wed
into wed night and still be in place on thu to result in light winds
again.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Adams



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