Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301041
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
641 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING BEHIND IT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOWER HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE TODAY FOLLOWING
THE COLD FRONT THAT CAME THROUGH OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSER TO 15C WITH HIGHS IN THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ACROSS THE
AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SPREADS OVERHEAD. IN
ADDITION...BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OVER CANADA. WESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO THE 10-15 MPH RANGE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 MPH IN THE NORTH. CIRRUS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST...GIVING WAY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE
A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...IT WILL WEAKEN WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN RETURN AGAIN. THE NAM IS A LITTLE
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN NEAR 850MB ON FRIDAY AND
INDICATES SOME INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES
FROM YNG INTO PA. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS SEEM TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE
ON DEWPOINTS THAN THE GFS BUT FEEL THE MOISTURE NEAR 850MB MAY BE
A LITTLE OVERDONE. REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP WE HAD IN THE
FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

WHATEVER SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXIT TO
THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY ON SATURDAY MORNING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING AT THE SURFACE SHOULD RESULT IN DRY
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER FOLLOWING THE FRONT WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
ON SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE ENOUGH INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL OCCUR FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT SINKS SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THERE ARE
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON TIMING BUT FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD SEEM
LIKELY SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY MORNING. WILL
HAVE SOMEWHAT HIGHER POPS LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT
GOING TO FORECAST AS HIGH A POP AS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED UNTIL WE
GET A BETTER FIX ON THE TIMING.

THE GFS SHOWS MORE AMPLITUDE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND THE
MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS DRIVING THE COLD FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH
AND THE ECMWF STALLING THE FRONT NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY. WILL FOLLOW
CONTINUITY AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK. WILL
ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT KERI
AND KYNG UNTIL THE FRONT IS EAST. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH
ESSENTIALLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
ALMOST LIKE A FALL PATTERN DEVELOPING ON LAKE ERIE WITH FREQUENT
FRONTS AND SURFACE TROUGHS CROSSING THE LAKE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE LAKE TODAY AND HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE RESULTING WEST FLOW
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON
THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE....AND WINDS AND WAVES WILL APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AROUND THE ISLANDS TO CLEVELAND
LATE IN THE DAY SO MARINERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A CHOPPY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THINGS SHOULD SETTLE DOWN LATER TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL PICK BACK UP
ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH. WINDS AND WAVES WILL
LIKELY NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG ON FRIDAY BUT WE COULD APPROACH
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA EAST OF CLEVELAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

THE NEXT WEAK FRONT/TROUGH IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND WINDS MAY
PICK UP ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY THE EAST HALF OF THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     LATE TONIGHT FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 3 AM EDT
     FRIDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK


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