Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 022244
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
644 PM EDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL DRIFT EAST AND
WEAKEN. A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED...WILL BOOST POPS TO CHANCE FOR THE REMAINING STORM
THREAT SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES.

ORIGINAL...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO WHERE THE THETA-E IS HIGHER AND THE INSTABILITY IS REBOUNDING
AFTER THE EARLIER ACTIVITY. COULD BE A FEW FOG POCKETS OVERNIGHT
WHERE THERE WAS RAIN TODAY BUT EVEN IN THOSE AREAS WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED...JUST THE USUAL FOGGY SPOTS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON
PERSISTENCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DECENT SHORT WAVE WILL SLIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AS
EVIDENCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. NOT SURE
HOW THURSDAY WILL PLAY OUT. THERE MAY WELL BE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY IN THE DAY. DOES
THAT ACTIVITY WEAKEN AND NEW ACTIVITY REDEVELOP OR DOES THE NEW
ACTIVITY JUST GRADUALLY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND SPREAD
EAST? THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ALSO ENHANCE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL FORECAST "SCATTERED" FOR NOW WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO WHERE THE
THETA-E IS HIGHER. HIGH TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS IF THERE ARE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND BUT DEW
POINTS WILL BE JUST AS HIGH.

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE FLOW ALOFT AND ALL OF THE MODEL HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH AROUND
500 MB OVER THE MIDWEST ON FRIDAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON FRIDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION IT
ON THE FORECAST BASED ON MINIMAL COVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90 AND HUMID.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH A MINIMAL CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN QUESTION IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. TODAY`S
GFS AND ECMWF STILL ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GFS
HAS A STRONGER AND FASTER COLD FRONT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT THAT MAY NOT BE AS SIGNIFICANT. BOTH WOULD BRING
SOME TYPE OF RAIN CHANCE TO THE AREA SO HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
BEGINNING ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURE
SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR
EACH SOLUTION NOT TO MENTION THE TIMING ISSUE. GIVEN CURRENT RIDGE
SETUP THOUGHTS ARE MORE ALIGNED WITH ECMWF SO TRENDED TEMPS TOWARDS
THE ECMWF AND CLIMO FOR NOW.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT...A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WET WEATHER TO THE AREA. FOR NOW JUST CONTINUED WITH CHANCE POPS
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MUCH OF THE SAME CONTINUES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A
FEW POP UP SHRA/TS POSSIBLE BUT AGAIN COVERAGE WILL BE EXTREMELY
LIMITED. IF THERE WAS ANYTHING THAT COULD HINT TO A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF A SHRA/TS SUCH AS HIGH RES MODELS OR CURRENT
ANALYSIS EXTRAPOLATED...A VCSH OR VCTS HAS BEEN INCLUDED.
UNCERTAIN IF LAKE BREEZE WILL MAKE IT THROUGH KCLE THIS
AFTERNOON...AT LEAST NOT TO TAKE IT PAST 330 DEGREES.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE PATTERN SHIFTS EVER SO SLIGHTLY AND WE
WILL BE ABLE TO GET A VERY DIFFUSE COLD FRONT SINK SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED A MID DECK AND A FEW
VCSH WITH THIS FEATURE. TS ARE POSSIBLE. EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE
MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOO. OVERALL THE WINDS WHICH WILL BE WEST-
SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NW-N ON THURSDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER TRANQUIL LATE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WIND OVER THE LAKE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT THE AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZE TO SUBSIDE TOWARD SUN SET. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS BY TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH ALL
THE WHILE BEING LIGHT AND GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

ON MONDAY WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE LAKE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE LAKE ON TUESDAY. A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...TK/KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...LAPLANTE



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