Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 190130
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
930 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front located over Lake Erie will drift southeast
across the region this evening. High pressure will build into
the area overnight. The high will then dominate the weather the
second half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Update...Updated cloud cover for the overnight.

Original...
Weakening cold front will sag southward across the region this
evening with a few showers possible Coverage will be scattered
at best and mainly be located across the western half of
northern Ohio. High pressure will ridge into the area behind
the front. However there will not be much of an airmass change
so a few showers may linger into Tuesday night as a weak trough
persists. Cant rule out a rumble of thunder this evening or
Tuesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts will be on the light side
unless a thunderstorm passes overhead.

Warmer than seasonal averages through Tuesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday will be the only day in the second half of the week
with a bit of troughing across the area. With the moisture axis
shifted across the central portions of OH, have carried a 20-30
percent chance of a shower. Realistically an isolated
thunderstorm would be possible. Beyond Wednesday though the
ridge will build across the region. In fact the next cold front
upstream will not have a chance to make it into the area
Thursday or Friday. Temperatures will remain warm with highs
upwards of 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models still show upper and surface ridging dominating thru Mon
which should keep conditions dry while temps run above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
A weakening cold front moving through the area will drift
southeast and dissipate overnight as weak high pressure begins
to build back into the area. Plenty of low/mid level moisture
however so believe there will be ample clouds through the
period. Overnight will drop much of the area to MVFR/IFR after
06-09Z through 13-14Z in areas of fog.  Otherwise mainly VFR.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in fog Wednesday through Friday
mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
Shower or isolated thunderstorm threat will remain across the
western half of the area tonight and Tuesday, but other than that
high pressure will be in control of the weather across the lake for
the remainder of the week. Winds will continue to be light and
therefore waves will be minimal. Expect a southerly component each
night and a shift to the north-northeast during the afternoons.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...TK/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...Oudeman



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