Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 010250
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1050 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OHIO
OVERNIGHT. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL BUILD IN MONDAY AND
LINGER INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE STEADIER RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SHOWERS FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT AND TAPER OFF BY DAYBREAK. A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE WEAKENING SURFACE LOW SLIDES EAST
ACROSS OHIO DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
STARTING OUT COOL AND STABLE AND WHILE THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL STEEPEN AND THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE...THE LIKELIHOOD
OF THUNDER IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE IT OUT OF THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...MOST
NOTICEABLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM AROUND ROUTE 30
SOUTH...AS THE WIND BECOMES SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THE "RISING TEMPERATURE" PHRASE MADE IT INTO SOME OF THE FORECASTS
BUT THE THRESHOLD WAS NOT LARGE ENOUGH FOR IT TO BE MENTIONED IN
ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT FORECASTS. SOME OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL
TICKLE 60F BY DAYBREAK. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR THE LATE EVENING
UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WILL BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER NE OHIO.   NAM MOVES THE LOW TO BUF AREA BY 18Z WHILE
GFS HAS LOW LINGERING OVER NE OHIO.  NAM FASTER TIMING SEEMS MORE
REASONABLE SO USED THAT FOR FORECAST TIMING.  EXPECT SOME MORNING
SHOWERS THAN A BREAK BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.   EITHER
WAY THE BREAK FROM SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS SECONDARY LOW
TRACKS ACROSS OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT.   EXPECT SHOWERS TO SPREAD NE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN
OHIO SUNDAY NIGHT.  ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TSRA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW INTO UPSTATE NY BY DAYBREAK
MONDAY.   AFTER THAT HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS SE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND HOLDS FIRM THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WELL...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT ON WEDNESDAY THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
BRING THE FRONT INTO NORTHERN OHIO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN
DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG IT.  THIS WILL KEEP THE SHOWER THREAT LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  BY THURSDAY THE WAVE WILL TURN INTO A DEEP
EAST COAST LOW.  THE MODELS AS USUAL ARE HAVING TROUBLES WITH THE
TRACK OF THE LOW BUT ALL PUMP MOISTURE WEST INTO THE AREA.  THIS
MEANS WE WILL NEED PRECIP CHANCES PRETTY MUCH EVERY PERIOD THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.  FOR THOSE THAT THINK THIS
WEEKEND HAS BEEN BAD...YOU WILL PROBABLY BE REALLY DISAPPOINTED WITH
THE NEXT ONE AS WELL.  EXPECT POPS TO GRADUALLY RISE WITH EACH NEW
MODEL RUN AS CONFIDENCE BECOMES HIGHER.  TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IFR ABOUND WITH RAIN AND FOG TONIGHT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE
BETTER MOISTURE WON`T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER 06Z AT TOLEDO AND AFTER
12Z IN ERIE...SO RA DZ AND BR ARE ALL FAIR GAME UNTIL THEN. BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR ARE EVEN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS CONDITIONS HAVE
ALREADY TOUCHED IFR WITH THE RAIN AND FOG ACROSS THE WEST.
CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK...FIRST IN THE WEST
AND THEN IN THE EAST. -RA DZ AND BR WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING THOUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST...AND MVFR CIGS
WILL HOLD ON THROUGH LATE MORNING IN THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS.
ANOTHER SHOT OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
IN THE WEST WITH A SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN
INDIANA. AS WAS ALREADY MENTIONED...WITH ENOUGH SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THIS SECOND LOW CEILINGS COULD POTENTIALLY IMPROVE TO LOW
END VFR. BETTER CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING WILL BE AT TOLEDO AND
FINDLAY. OVERALL THUNDER CHANCES TOMORROW AFTERNOON REMAIN LOW
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY.

OUTLOOK...SOME BREAKS IN THE NON VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THEN MORE
NON VFR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...LINGERING LONGER ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA. NON VFR AGAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL NOT BE GOING OUT WITH A SMALL CRAFT.  WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW
MAINLY EAST THE BIGGER WAVES SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THIS EVENING.  EVEN IF THE FLOW HAD A NORTHERLY COMPONENT DO NOT
THINK THE SPEEDS WOULD BE GREAT ENOUGH TO GENERATE SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE STILL ON TRACK TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LAKE OVERNIGHT.  THE FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHEAST TOMORROW AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY TOMORROW NIGHT.  LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED FOR ABOUT 36 HOURS.  THE WIND WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TILL A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE LAKE SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY.  MAINLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  OUTSIDE OF THIS
EVENING DO NOT FORESEE NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT TILL POSSIBLY THE VERY
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KUBINA


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