Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 300151
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
951 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS NRN OH/NW PA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THIS
WILL STILL ALLOW A WEAK COLD FRONT TO COME ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED INTO NW OHIO AND WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
EASTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE NIGHT. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. STILL BELIEVE
THAT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT REACHES THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE...MAINLY EAST OF
CLEVELAND AND INTO NW PA. HAVE GONE WITH A SMALL AREA OF LIKELY
POPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS THE LIFT IS ENHANCED BY THE TERRAIN OF
NE OHIO AND NW PA.

MUCH DRIER AIR IS SURGING ACROSS MICHIGAN AND INDIANA WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S. SINCE WE ARE ADVECTING THIS DRIER
AIR INTO THE REGION THE THREAT OF FOG LOOKS MINIMAL.

EXPECT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP LOWS CLOSER TO 70 ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BE EAST
OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECTING DEWPOINTS TO GET
PULLED BACK NEAR 60...WITH UPPER 50S WITH DAYTIME MIXING. A MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE SITUATION. CLOUD COVER WILL RATHER SCANT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. WILL GO WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND A DRY FORECAST. PRETTY MUCH THE SAME
GOES FOR FRIDAY.

THAT HIGH SETTLES IN ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY FOR THE WEEKEND.
ALOFT WE WILL HAVE RETURNED TO A NORTHWEST FLOW...ON THE EDGE OF
THE STRONGER WESTERLIES. THIS WILL ALLOW A MINOR SHORTWAVE AND
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO CROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AND CROSS
THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THIS FEATURE. THERE WAS ENOUGH CONSISTENCY
TODAY THOUGH TO BE ABLE TO RAISE PRECIP CHANCES. HAVE 20 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY. IT SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH ATTEMPTS TO
TEMPORARILY NUDGE A LITTLE CLOSER. AGAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL TRENDS ARE CONSISTENT PUSHING THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE
SOUTH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH TO THE
OHIO RIVER DURING THE DAY...PROVIDING DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHILE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT STILL UP IN THE AIR. GFS WITH DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL THURSDAY
WHILE ECMWF MOVES SHORT WAVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EVEN THOUGH
GFS SOLUTION APPEARS MORE REASONABLE...THIS FAR OUT WILL JUST GO
WITH LOW CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT JUST NOW MOVING THROUGH TOLEDO. OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHES
FROM LORAIN SOUTH TOWARDS MANSFIELD. MVFR VIS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
LINE AS IT MOVES EAST WITH THE FRONT. THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS
IS JUST WEST OF TOLEDO. BY SUNRISE ALL SITES SHOULD BE FEW TO
SCT250. THURSDAY AFTERNOON NW FLOW WILL BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SAT AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT IN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED THIS EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.  COLD FRONT NOW JUST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE HURON AND WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. WINDS TURN TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. FOR NOW WILL GO
WITH 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES...BUT IF WINDS ANY STRONGER MAY NEED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EAST OF CLE FOR THURSDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW HOVERING NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE
INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...DJB



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