Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 212301

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
601 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

A weak cool front will move across the forecast area this
evening into early tonight. Southerly winds return Wednesday as
another weak front approaches from the north. This front will
stall out and lift back north as a warm front Thursday night. A
strong low will cut across the central Great Lakes Friday into
Friday night forcing a strong cold front across the forecast
area. Temperatures will continue to average 20-30 degrees above
normal through Friday before finally falling back to near
normal for the weekend.


No major changes to the forecast with this update, aside from
minor adjustments to pops and a switch to isolated wording vs.
slight chance/chance showers.

Original discussion...
Some light showers are moving northeast across Lake Erie as of 3
PM, but nothing of note is occurring anywhere on land. Can`t
rule out a few sprinkles or brief light showers occurring across
the CWA this evening into tonight, but that`s about it. We will
likely see some fog develop after midnight tonight, generally
west of a line from Lorain to Knox County. Some areas of dense
fog could develop as well, most likely across northwest Ohio.

Lows tonight will range from the mid-40s in northwest Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania, to around 50 elsewhere. Temperatures
will be a little warmer tomorrow afternoon than what we saw
today, especially across northwest Ohio where the extensive
cloud cover and light showers early in the day kept temperatures
below 60 degrees. Expect mid-to-upper 60s everywhere.

There is a slight chance for a few warm air advection showers
Wednesday night, but most areas will either stay dry or see some
drizzle. Temperatures will be warm Wednesday night with most
locations only falling to the lower 50s.


A very weak cool front will make its way into northern portions
of the CWA Thursday morning. It will stall out somewhere across
northern Ohio before lifting back north as a warm front Thursday
night. We may see a few showers develop along and north of this

As the warm front moves north of the area for Friday, expect
breezy southerly flow to develop with record high temperatures.
We will likely see widespread 70s, with some areas possibly
getting up into the mid-70s. Depending on the exact timing of
the cold front that will approach from the west, western areas
may not warm up quite as much.

Currently, the NAM is quite a bit faster with the cold front,
moving it into the Toledo to Findlay area by mid-afternoon. The
GFS and ECMWF are considerably slower and do not move the cold
front into those areas until the late evening or early overnight
hours. The exact timing of the cold front will have a
significant impact on the type of weather that will be expected.

The slower solution (NAM) would suggest a risk of strong to
severe storms across at least the western half of the CWA Friday
afternoon into Friday evening as a squall lines moves across
from west to east. The main severe threat would be damaging
winds in a low CAPE/high Shear environment. The slower solutions
(GFS and ECMWF) would mean a good soaking from showers and
storms, but likely little to nothing in the way of strong or
severe storms. We`ll have to wait until we get a better handle
on the timing of the front before we can say anything with
regards to strong/severe storms with much certainty.

Much colder air will filter in behind the front Friday night.


Transition in the weather pattern will occur this weekend as a
strong cold front moves across the eastern CONUS. Climatology favors
temperatures in the upper 30s/lower 40s for this time of year, so
despite a dramatic cool down temperatures will still be running near
normal. Saturday will start off with some lingering warm/moist air
over the eastern third of the area, however this will quickly clear
out as the cold front sweeps through. Colder air will fill in during
the day with temperatures falling(east)/steady(west) across the
area. Temperatures won`t fall below freezing until that
evening/overnight at which time some wrap around moisture from the
exiting low moves back in. This combined with lingering moisture and
flow off the lake will support scattered snow showers, but with warm
ground conditions don`t see any notable accumulations. There will be
about 48 hours of temperatures below freezing before the next warm
front moves in for Tuesday bringing showers along with it.


.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Main concern for the TAF period will be the development of
possible IFR conditions late tonight/early Wednesday.

A weak boundary pushing in from the west could bring some light
rain early this afternoon, mainly to the northern TAF sites
before washing out. Moisture streaming into the region will
continue to support cloud growth from the top down this
afternoon and tonight. By late tonight the winds will be light
4kt or less. Increased low level moisture along the stationary
front will support a high likelihood of fog and IFR CIGS. South
winds will increase steadily into the afternoon with some
spread in the low level dew points, supporting MVFR ceilings.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR will develop again Thursday or Thursday
night and continue at times through Saturday.


A weak frontal boundary crossing the lake will stall inland
overnight. Look for light southerly winds on Wednesday through the
the end of the forecast period as high pressure along the east coast
slides slowly offshore. Speeds should remain less than 15 kts as
winds veer to SE tonight then S/SW Wed.

Long term a weak cold front will move just inland of northern Ohio
on Thursday allowing winds to veer to the north. Winds will be
generally 5-10 knots. Winds and waves will increase Friday into
Friday night as a fast-moving cold front approaches from the west,
moving across the lake on Saturday. Small craft conditions will be
possible Friday and continue into Saturday. Winds and waves will
diminish Sunday as high pressure builds in from the west.




NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Mottice
SHORT TERM...Mottice
LONG TERM...Jamison
MARINE...Jamison is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.