Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 211740
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1240 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the central United States has extended a warm
front across the Great Lakes region. This low will progress
eastward along the front and deepen as it approaches the area.
The low and its associated cold front will cross the Great Lakes
area Monday night into Tuesday. High pressure will then build in
behind the front and persist through much of the remainder of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast on track. Fog from previous dense fog advisory has been
improving. Area of fog across northeast OH/nw PA is only locally
dense/not as widespread. Will continue to mention areas of fog
in the forecast. Therefore no changes with this midday update.

Previous discussion...A murky, dreary, yet warmer Sunday is
store for northern Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. A warm front
sits just to the north of the area, extending all the way back
to a low pressure system over the central plains. On the south
side of the front, warmer air is streaming into the region with
plenty of moisture. This is allowing for a widespread area of
stratus from upstate New York to the Mississippi River, which
will remain overhead for all of Sunday. A rather strong
inversion remains in the warm sector so some drizzle is possible
with the stratus deck but measurable precipitation seems
unlikely given the dry air aloft. The aforementioned inversion
begins to erode late this afternoon as the low pressure center
moves closer to the region and some potentially measurable
precipitation could creep in late in the today period but is
more certain to occur during the tonight period. Rainfall
amounts aren`t too jarring and should be limited to a tenth to
two tenths at most. Light rain will continue into Monday as the
low and associated cold front move closer to the region.
Overall, rain looks to be intermittent with perhaps a good
chance for rain Sunday night and then a break Monday morning
before a second round on Monday afternoon, but there may be some
lingering rain so don`t have rain chances too refined at the
moment. However, rain coverage and amounts will be on the
increase as the cold front approaches...so have higher pops and
QPF for Monday afternoon.

Temperatures will be above normal throughout the period as the
region will be in the warm sector. Warm air advection will pump
the temperatures up into the mid to upper 40s for Sunday and
cloud cover overnight will keep temperatures rather warm on
Sunday night. This will prime the environment for temperatures
to warm even further for Monday with widespread mid 50s, or
about 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term begins Monday night with models showing low
pressure in nrn IL/srn WI region. A warm front will extend east
across the Great Lakes. A weak cold front/surface trough will
extend across eastern OH well east of the wrapped up surface
low. Another cold front will extend south from the low. Monday
night and Tuesday the low will move across the Great Lakes into
Quebec dragging the second cold front across the region early
Tuesday. Will have chance to likely pops Monday night increasing
to categorical most locations Tuesday with the low moves
through the lower lakes. Colder air will move into the region
behind this second cold front Tuesday as the low moves through
the lakes so will have chance to likely pops for rain changing
to snow from west to east. Another weak trough moves through for
Wednesday although outside of the lake effect areas will only
carry slight chance pops. For the northeast however, 850mb temps
drop to around -14C by Wednesday morning which should be good
enough for a little lake effect snow. Thursday dry air moves in
as high pressure moves east through the TN Vly.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Friday looks decent with an upper ridge across the region. Expect
moderating temps and fair skies. The ridge of course is just ahead
of a rather large upper trough that will approach on Saturday
sending deep moisture streaming north out of the GLFMX. The moisture
conveyor will continue into Sunday as the upper trough axis presses
east into the Great Lakes. Will have fairly high pops for Saturday
and Sunday. Expecting rain Saturday and Saturday night with a
possible mix of rain and/or snow Sunday as temps cool.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Widespread IFR/LIFR continues across the northern terminals, but
MVFR has been encroaching on the southern terminals. HREF
partially picking up on this and have brought the improvement up
to CAK/YNG and for a bit at CLE for mid/late afternoon.
Conditions likely deteriorate again this evening. Area of
showers to move across the terminals overnight followed by
improvement to MVFR with the push of a warm front north. By 18Z
Monday some southern sites may be getting close to VFR. Winds
will remain light south.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR for much of Tuesday through Wednesday. Gusty
winds Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines expected through the forecast period. Light south flow
will persist today and tonight before turning south/southeast at 5
to 15 knots Monday ahead of low pressure moving through the upper
midwest. Monday night winds veer to the south/southwest around 15
knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots from the southwest Tuesday as the
low moves through the central lakes. Wednesday look for northwest
flow 10 to 20 knots behind the low. Wednesday night and Thursday
winds will be light from the west/northwest. Friday winds will be
from the south 10 to 15 knots as another low moves into the upper
midwest.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Oudeman/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...TK


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