Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 031947
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
347 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN
CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CAPE IS UP AROUND 3000 AND A SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP INLAND OF LAKE ERIE...MAINLY ON OUTLFOW BOUNDARIES AND
CONVERGENT FLOW. DCAPE IS UP AROUND 1200 AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR AN ISOLATED MICROBURST WITH THE BIGGEST CELLS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
DIMINISH PRETTY QUICKLY STARTING AROUND SUNSET.

MEANWHILE...THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MICHIGAN AND ONTARIO ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. THERE HAS BEEN
SOME CAPPING IN THIS AREA BUT STILL THINK THE ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AROUND TOLEDO TOWARD SANDUSKY THIS EVENING AS
THE OUTFLOW FROM THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH. WILL KEEP A
CHANCE/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS A DECENT PART OF THE NIGHT ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE ACROSS LAKE
ERIE TOWARD ERIE PA. NICE DIVERGENT BOUNDARY FLOW ON THE LAKE AT THE
MOMENT WHICH SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN THE ACTIVITY ON EASTERN LAKE
ERIE THIS EVENING. WILL HAVE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
ERIE PA TONIGHT.

PERSISTENCE FOR LOW TEMPS...GENERALLY 65 TO 70....A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE RIDGE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BUILD OVER THE WEEKEND.
UNFORTUNATELY...WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT WEAKNESS ALOFT BETWEEN THE
HIGHEST HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. A
FEW MORE STORMS WILL BUBBLE UP FRIDAY. THE PATTERN AGAIN WILL BE
SOMEWHAT UNPREDICTABLE... DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY ETC. THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS EVEN WARMER AND SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR FROM
THE MIDWEST SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. CANNOT RULE SOMETHING OUT... BUT
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TREND OF POPS BELOW THE "SLIGHT CHANCE"
THRESHOLD...ABOUT 10 PERCENT... THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PERSISTENCE ON TEMPERATURES. IF ANYTHING...TEMPS COULD SNEAK UP A
DEGREE OR TWO BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR/AROUND 90. DO
NOT BE SEDUCED BY THE MOS GUIDANCE WHICH TRENDS DOWN THIS TIME OF
YEAR BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...UNTIL THE EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF THE
WESTERN TROUGH AND ATTEMPT TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AS IT MOVES EAST.
THE AIR MASS REMAINS DRY ON MONDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE A MARGINAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
TO KICK OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY...BETTER CHANCES HOLD
OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN THE NEXT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS
OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 TO START THE WEEK...BUT WILL TREND DOWN
BY MIDWEEK AS CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE. THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. RAISED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EACH NIGHT GIVEN
THE WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CHALLENGING SET OF TAFS THIS AFTERNOON AS POP-UP SHOWERS AND
STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-OHIO REGION AND AN
ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS PUSHING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
MICHIGAN. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ALL SIX OF OUR OHIO TAF
SITES WILL HAVE A PASSING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION...DECIDED TO PUT IN A VCTS AT
ALL SITES EXCEPT ERI AS COVERAGE SEEMS HIGHER TODAY THAN IN PAST
DAYS. GENERALLY THINKING THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
BE BEFORE 00Z AS DAYTIME HEATING IS FUELING THESE STORMS.

STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AND LEAVE BEHIND SOME SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. THE LOW-LEVELS WILL REMAIN MOIST
OVERNIGHT AND SOME MVFR FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
PATCHY IFR FOG. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR AT ALL TAF SITES BY
15Z.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY GOOD MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY TONIGHT. AN EASTERLY
WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WITH WAVES INCREASING TO 1-2 FEET. LIGHT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY...VEERING TO SOUTH
BY MONDAY. WAVES WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...LOMBARDY/SEFCOVIC


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