Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 271745
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1245 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SECOND COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
CANADA WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT HAS
BECOME WIDELY SCATTERED AND LIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST AND THE LACK OF SUPPORT...I EXPECT THIS
TREND TO CONTINUE. I WILL PULL BACK THE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL
BE IN THE AREA BUT WILL REMAIN WIDELY SCATTERED. A LITTLE BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES BUT I WILL REDUCE THE
POPS SLIGHTLY IN THAT AREA AS WELL. I EXPECT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME. SOME
SUN OVER THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY RISE INTO THE 50S. SLIGHT WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THIS AREA WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO
RISE. 15Z RUC PUSHES TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 50S FOR SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. I WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES OVER THE EAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST BAND OF PRECIP JUST WEST OF THE AREA SHOULD MOVE THROUGH
WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
BECOMING MORE SPOTTY EAST AS SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BEHIND THE BAND SHOULD COME A BIT OF
A BREAK IN THE PRECIP. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXPECTING
NOW ANOTHER SURGE OF MOISTURE/PRECIP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AFTER WHICH WE SHOULD SEE DRYING FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT. ADJUSTED
GRIDS TODAY AND TONIGHT TO REFLECT THIS.

ORIGINAL...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TODAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MODELS DIFFER A BIT
ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP WITH THE GFS AHEAD OF THE NAM INITIALLY.
WILL SIDE CLOSER TO THE GFS HERE AND BRING CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WEST THIRD THROUGH THE MORNING. FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE
POPS WEST TO LIKELY WITH CHANCE POPS MOST ELSEWHERE. HIGHS AROUND
50 REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODEL
DIFFERENCES CONTINUE WITH THE NAM BECOMING FASTER THAN THE GFS BY
SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE MOISTURE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA
WHILE THE GFS HANGS IT UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA.
FEEL THAT MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE AREA QUICKLY BUT ALSO LIKELY
PRUDENT TO LEAVE A SMALL CHANCE POP THROUGH THE MORNING SUNDAY
SOUTHEAST BEFORE DRYING OUT COMPLETELY. PTYPE COULD BE AN ISSUE
WITH PRECIP POSSIBLE MIXING/CHANGING JUST BEFORE OR AS IT ENDS BUT
FOR NOW WILL LEAVE AS MOSTLY RAIN. SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY. SOME
CONCERN ABOUT HOW MUCH CLEARING OCCURS. INVERSION STRONG ENOUGH
BUT BUFKIT SHOWS LESS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS PREVIOUS EVENTS.
THINKING BEST CHANCE FOR CLEARING WILL BE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF
SO WILL HAVE THE AFTERNOON BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY
THERE. BREAKS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS WELL. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TWO
SYSTEMS COULD AFFECT THE AREA. FIRST IS A COASTAL LOW THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE GULF COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST.
THE NAM SUGGESTS WE GET CLIPPED BY THE MOISTURE WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS IT TO OUR EAST. THE MORE PROBABLE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA
IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. WOULD EXPECT SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT WITH
-SOME- LAKE EFFECT BEHIND AS THE COLD AIR DEEPENS. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 SUNDAY...MID 30S MONDAY AND 20S TO NEAR 30 ON
TAP TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER
OHIO VALLEYS WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS IS
FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON. A COLD FRONT WILL COME DOWN FROM WESTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
IF NOT WEDNESDAY THAN THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE GRADUAL
INFILTRATION OF COLDER AIR SOUTH INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE TRADITIONAL SNOWBELT SHOULD REMAIN
PRECIP FREE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AND EXACT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. WILL KEEP THE LOW CHANCE MENTION FOR NOW WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST GETS MORE COMPLICATED GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. OPERATIONAL
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE BEGINNINGS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT WOULD TRACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY. THAT
WOULD BRING A SLIGHT MODIFICATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING NORTH INTO THE AREA. A
LOT OF VARIABILITY WITH THIS AND THE GFSENS AND ECMWF ENS BOTH HAVE
LOW PRESSURE FURTHER WEST AT 12Z SAT. THEREFORE WAITED UNTIL FRIDAY
NIGHT TO BRING THE CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA. PRECIP TYPE MAY
BE A CONCERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN TAPERING TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS BY MORNING.
I ANTICIPATE THE CONDITIONS TO BECOME MAINLY MVFR TURNING TO
POSSIBLY TO IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
SOME WESTERN OHIO TAF SITES ARE ALREADY MVFR WITH MORE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS READY TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA OF OHIO AND NW
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.

WINDS SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND 09Z SUN.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR EXITING SUNDAY. NON-VFR MAINLY OVER NE OH/NW
PA MONDAY...THEN POSSIBLY MORE NON-VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY NON-VFR POSSIBLE JUST ACROSS NE
OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE LAKE WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN
WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE LAKE QUICKLY
ON SUNDAY DIMINISHING WINDS/WAVES. AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM WESTERN CANADA TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTH TO HUDSON BAY WEDNESDAY...INCREASING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES. THEREFORE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE
LAKE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LIKELY AGAIN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...GARNET/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...OUDEMAN





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