Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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213
FXUS61 KCLE 231700
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1200 PM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the lower Ohio valley will remain in
control across the area through Friday. Low pressure will pass
just north of the Great Lakes Friday night, bringing a cold
front through the local area. An upper trough will remain over
the southern Great Lakes Saturday before high pressure builds
east across the region Saturday night through Sunday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes for the afternoon update.

Original discussion...
Quiet near term period expected with high pressure remaining
anchored over the forecast area. Stratus across northeast Ohio
and northwest PA continues to quickly erode this morning as the
ridging builds, with increasing mid level clouds streaming in
from the west in advance of a weak disturbance currently over
northeast Illinois. This will keep skies mostly cloudy through
the morning hours, with clearing expected from west to east
throughout the afternoon. Temps will top out around or just
above 40 degrees across the area. Skies are expected to be
mostly clear overnight through much of Friday, with mid/high
clouds building in Friday afternoon in advance of a cold front.
Lows tonight should drop into the upper 20s inland and low 30s
near the lake, with highs on Friday topping our near 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will move across the area Friday night. Not all that much
moisture to lift along it until it interacts with Lake Erie so the
greatest chances will be across the eastern half of the County
Warning Area. Some lake effect rain showers will occur through the
day on Saturday. We will have to wait for the upper level trough to
pass before the coldest air can spill across the lake and change the
rain to snow Saturday night. Accumulating snow may not occur until
late Saturday evening when 850mb temperatures dip below -5C.
Instablilty over the lake will not get all that impressive since 850
mb temperatures do not dip below -10C. This combined with dry air
building in quickly Sunday morning should limit accumulations. For
now have limited snow amounts to an inch or two across the higher
terrain of NW PA.

Saturday will see early highs in the upper 40s then cooling slowly
through the afternoon. Cooler on Sunday with highs in the mid 30s to
around 40.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Any remaining lake effect show shower should quickly com to an end
Sunday morning as high pressure ridges into the area from the lower
Ohio River Valley. This area of high pressure will move eastward off
the Middle Atlantic Coast Monday evening. This will allow a return
of warmer southwesterly winds ahead of the next storm system. The
main area of low pressure will be well north of the region but it
will push a cold front toward Ohio and NW PA Tuesday evening. Plenty
of uncertainty with this front when it comes to precipitation
chances. The amount of moisture associated with the front looks very
limited. So if it is going to rain it will have to pick the moisture
off of Lake Erie.

Temperatures through the long term period will be near to slightly
above seasonal averages. Highs on Wednesday may reach the middle 50s
for many locations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the entire forecast
period. Mid level deck 6k-10k bkn-ovc associated with an upper
level trough, will move east of the forecast area overnight.

OUTLOOK...The next chance for non-VFR conditions will come
Saturday -shra as another cold front moves through. Potential
for lake effect snow snowbelt east of CLE Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will move off the Middle Atlantic Coast today as a
weakening cold front moves toward Lake Erie from central Ontario.
This boundary will only help to tighten the pressure gradient over
the lake. So expect to see southwesterly winds gradually increase
through the afternoon. We will need to monitor wave heights closely
from Geneva-on-the-lake to Ripley since the longer fetch could build
waves close to 4 feet late in the day. A stronger storm system will
move across central Ontario to central Quebec Friday into Saturday.
This will drag a cold front across the lake by sunrise on Saturday.
Southwesterly winds ahead of the front should increase to above 20
knots with building waves. This should be enough to get a small
craft advisory going by Friday evening then continuing in the wake
of the front into Sunday morning.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Greenawalt
NEAR TERM...DJB/Greenawalt
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Mullen



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