Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 281040
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
640 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO CLOUD COVER GRIDS TO COVER
THE SCATTERED MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TODAY. AFTER SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG THIS MORNING EXPECT TO SEE
MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY. THE GROUNDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA IS DRY SO WE SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY QUICK WARMUP THIS MORNING. HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS BECAUSE OF DRYNESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO OHIO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE REGION.
THE BEST CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN
DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THIS PIECE OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATES A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS THE LOW
LINGERING OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE
GFS SOLUTION FOR THIS FORECAST WHICH HAS INCREASING HEIGHTS AND A
RETURN TO SOME WARMTH. HEIGHTS THIS HIGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SQUASH ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE INTO THE 80S WITH A POTENTIAL THAT THESE WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUIET THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. NO MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS POINT. IF
RIDGE TURNS OUT TO BE AS STRONG AS THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THEN WE
WOULD BE DRY. AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TS COULD OCCUR TUESDAY IF A
BIT OF TROUGHINESS STICKS AROUND AS THE ECMWF SUGGESTS. DID NOT MAKE
ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES EITHER. AREA WILL BE RUNNING
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID 80S COMMON. CANNOT RULE OUT UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NARROW AND CONCERN IS WITH
SOME BR/FG TO DEVELOP. ALREADY SEEING MVFR VSBYS AT NON TAF SITES.
THEREFORE HAVE ADDED SOME VSBY RESTRICTIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
THROUGH SUNRISE. VFR FOR FRIDAY. LAKE BREEZE FOR KERI AND KCLE.
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD IN OVERHEAD AFTER 00Z SAT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COULD NOT ASK FOR A BETTER MARINE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE END OF THE WEEK AND IN TO NEXT WEEK. ONE
DISSIPATING SYSTEM MAY BRING A SHOWER/TS TO THE LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT
OTHERWISE EXPECT DRY WEATHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. DAYTIME
ONSHORE FLOW AND NIGHTTIME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE COMMON JUST ABOUT
EVERY DAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN



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