Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 240728
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
328 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016
A cold front will continue to move south of the area this morning.
A high pressure ridge will slowly build southeast across the western
Great Lakes region by Tuesday morning. The ridge will shift east
across the area Wednesday and to the east coast by Wednesday night.
Low pressure will move east across the area late Wednesday night
into Thursday night.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front across the area will continue to push south of the area
today. Some shower and thunderstorm activity ahead of the cold front
will push south of the northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania
area today. Otherwise, fair weather will be the rule across the rest
of the forecast area today. Northwest flow in the wake of the cold
front will set-up across the area today. The flow is expected to
become well aligned across the area and with cold air advection
taking place, expecting some lake effect rain showers to develop
through the day across the northeastern portion of the forecast
area. 850 MB temperatures drop down to -2 degrees C as compared to
lake surface temperature of 17 degrees C. This supports only
conditional instability over the lake today. As cold air advection
takes place, air mass across the area will be noticeable cooler
today than they were yesterday.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wind flow will begin to shift to a more east to northeast direction
tonight as the high pressure ridge begins to build east across the
area. Expecting fair weather to be the rule across the region
through Tuesday evening under the influence of a building upper
level ridge and surface high pressure ridge over the local region.
As the high pressure ridge at the surface pushes east, this should
set the state for some slight warm air advection behind a weak warm
frontal boundary. Low pressure is progged to move east toward
northern ohio and northwest Pennsylvania by Wednesday night. A
fairly good swath of moisture is expected with the storm system and
this will bring a return back to some rain showers late Tuesday
through Thursday night.
Some fairly strong cold air advection will take place, especially
Tuesday night, across the forecast area. Low temperatures will drop
well into the 30s most area. 850 mb temperatures will drop to
between -2 degrees C and -4 degrees C by Tuesday night across the
eastern half of the forecast area. Warm air advection in the mid
levels will be protruding into the western areas of the forecast
area by Tuesday into Tuesday night. Further warming aloft will take
place by Wednesday and Thursday.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Not many changes to the long term today. The models have the
typical timing issues so some uncertainty remains. Friday will see
the area on the backside of a departing system. Some showers are
possible through midday downwind of the lake. Another strong system
will dive southeast across the Great Lakes region for the start of
the weekend. Precip appears likely on Saturday with instability
showers downwind of the lake into Sunday. Already had precip
chances in most of the period and see no reason for changes.
Temperatures during the period will average a couple degrees below
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
An east to west oriented cold front has moved south across about
half the area. Showers associated with this front have impacted
the east end of the area. Most of these showers will be out of the
area the next couple of hours as the front continues south.
However...lake effect showers could redevelop later today downwind
of the lake. Cigs have developed behind the front but most of
these are in the east. There have been a few pockets of MVFR and
this sort of thing will continue through the morning hours.
Cigs...occasionally MVFR...will continue from CLE and MFD east
with sct-bkn skies in the west. By midday ridging will be
occurring in the west and skies will clear. The lake effect clouds
will persist in the east into the evening hours. Winds will be
northerly for a couple hours behind the front but by daybreak
mainly NW is expected. Some gustiness is possible from mid morning
OUTLOOK...Areas of non VFR late Wednesday into Thursday.
The surface cold front has pushed south of the lake causing the flow
to become northerly. Winds will become more northwest during the
day today and expect small craft conditions to develop. Have not
made any changes to the headlines. It will be Tuesday before High
Pressure moves over the lake and causes the winds to diminish. The
flow will become easterly Tuesday night and increase on Wednesday
ahead of the next storm system. Low pressure will move over the
lake on Thursday with southerly flow becoming northwest behind the
low. More small craft headlines appear likely for the end of the
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ144>149.