Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 300007
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
807 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will drift across the Upper Ohio Valley through the
weekend...then weaken and move northeast of the area Monday. A large
area of high pressure will move across the Great Lakes early next
week...and move off the New England Coast Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Little change in the forecast.   Upper level low has drifted into
Western Ky and all 3 models has it nearly stationary in Central KY
overnight. The showers now over NE OH will continue to shift west
this evening.  Showers will gradually expand over entire area
overnight...fed by 300 mb jet max moving across the lower lakes.
the 3 hour flash flood guidance is 1.5-2.5 inches so do not think
will approach that overnight.  Temps will remain in the 50s
overnight...trended toward the dew points for overnight lows.
Only adjustment made with this early evening update was to lower
the thunderstorm chance...wording it as a chance of thunderstorms
along with the occasional rain showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Model trends hint that the convection will lift NE of the forecast
area tomorrow morning as the upper level jet shifts East...then
convection redeveloping during the afternoon.  Models still not in
good agreement with the track and timing of the low...but trend is
similar.  Expect low to drift north across Indiana/Illinois through
the weekend...then finally lift north of Lake Erie Sunday afternoon.
WPC 72 hour forecast paints a widespread 1-2 inches across the
forecast area by Sunday.  As far as temps...expect highs hovering in
the mid to upper 60s and lows in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The models are not quite in agreement with the exit of the upper low
early next week. The GFS has the system out to sea on Tuesday while
the ECMWF is slower with the upper low still struggling to get off
the east coast by Wednesday. The CMC leaves a chunk of the upper low
behind which may be possible as the rex block builds over the Great
Lakes.

In any case, one would hope that heights will rise enough to suppress
any more shower development. Will allow for a small chance of
lingering showers extreme northeast Ohio and northwest PA on Monday
otherwise dry Monday through Wednesday. Will keep Thursday dry for
now as the next trough/front may be delayed if the tropical system
goes up the Atlantic coast.

Temperatures will trend back above normal as the ridge builds aloft
and the forecast will be near or above most of the guidance. Highs
from around 70 Monday and in the 70s mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Occasional showers will continue through the TAF cycle as an upper
level low remains over the region. Thunderstorms will be possible at
any site over the next few hours but most likely locations will be
at CAK/YNG before chances decrease for the overnight hours. IFR
visibilities are possible in any of the heavier showers. Otherwise
expecting ceilings to lower to IFR at most sites overnight with a
stratus deck developing. Only slow improvement expected on Friday
although the next round of showers may help to break up the low
stratus with some sites improving to MVFR or even VFR. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible again on Friday afternoon.

Northeast to easterly winds will trend more easterly overnight.
Some models shows winds near 2K feet increasing to around 40 knots
overnight although there are inconsistencies and decided to leave
out of the TAFs for now. Easterly winds may be breezy at times
overnight(especially at ERI) with gusts to 20-25 knots becoming
more common at all sites on Friday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR at times into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure over the Ohio Valley with an increasing low level jet
will make for windy conditions on the open Lake Erie into Saturday.
Some of the stronger winds will make it to the south shore of Lake
Erie this evening into Saturday. The small craft advisory will
remain in effect. Waterspouts remain a slim possibility, mainly
across the western basin into Saturday, but confidence is too low to
include in the forecast at this time.

The flow will begin to veer more east to southeast on Saturday and
the better winds and waves will transition back into the open
waters and the Canadian waters. The gradient should diminish as the
system begins to weaken and lift out on Sunday. The flow will veer
more from the northwest by Monday but it does not seem as though the
wind will increase much.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Friday for LEZ147>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Friday for LEZ142>146.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...Kosarik



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