Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 190251
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
951 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift to the East Coast overnight. Low pressure
will track from the southern Plains to the Midwest on Monday,
lifting a warm front north across the area. A secondary wave of low
pressure will track northeast across the central Great Lakes Tuesday
and Wednesday, pulling a cold front south across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Only minor changes have been made to the grids to reflect
current trends.

Low level moisture continues to move northward into Tennessee.
As the low level jet increases this moisture should surge
northward quickly. As the warm front approaches early Monday
morning we should see a gradual increase in rain. Best chances
arrive by midday as the warm front lifts across the region.

Previous Discussion...
Stubborn stratus has finally cleared out of all areas. Cirrus
deck remains overhead but will lift north with time tonight as
the ridge builds aloft. Temperatures will dip a few degrees this
evening which is when we will hit our low for tonight before
temperatures warm after midnight.

First wave of low pressure will track out of the Plains towards the
Midwest on Monday as the trough continues to deepen over the Great
Basin. Deep southwesterly flow will allow for strong moisture
advection overnight into Monday with widespread rain expected. Rain
will arrive from the southwest between 5-10 AM as a 50 knot low
level jet slides overhead. Dreary conditions with lots of low
clouds will accompany a warm front lifting north across the
area. Highs on Monday expected to reach the upper 50s to near 60
degrees. Showers may start to taper off from the south during
the afternoon as drier air starts to sneak into the mid-levels.
This will be the first of several rounds of rain this week. QPF
is expected to be near .75 inch. This could cause some
additional rises on rivers that were running high from early
this week, but not expecting any new flooding on Monday. Can not
entirely rule out thunderstorms with this first push of
moisture but instability is fairly limited with warm air in the
mid levels so left out of the forecast for now. Temperatures
will not drop off more than a couple degrees Monday night with
lows in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An unseasonably warm pattern is expected for the short term forecast
period. A warm front will be well north of the area on Tuesday,
allowing for strong southerly flow and ample warm air advection to
overtake the region. The recent trends have shown Tuesday to be
increasingly dry across much of the area with the only rain right
along with the front in Indiana, Michigan, and far NW Ohio, perhaps
into the Toledo Area. With the guidance continuing towards a dry
solution and the latest runs even drier than the last, have cut down
precipitation chances across much of the area and running a
completely dry forecast across the southeast third of the CWA. In
addition, with the drier air in the warm sector, lowered cloud cover
quite a bit across the eastern CWA, as it looks like clouds are
going to scatter out and breaks of sun are possible late Tuesday
afternoon through sunset. Temperatures will be warm on Tuesday with
the strong southerly flow, 850mb temperatures in the 10-12C range,
and some mixing with scattering clouds, record highs will be
possible across much of the forecast area.

As for the rest of the short term, the rest of the period looks
active as low pressure moves through the central Great Lakes and
extends a cold front across the area for Wednesday. The front looks
to move quickly across the area so most rain should be confined to
Wednesday but the recent guidance has some rain lingering into
Thursday so will leave a slight chance of rain in for now.
Temperatures have quite the mountain to fall down so will likely
remain above normal for Wednesday and Thursday, especially with 850
temperatures struggling to hit 0c again until well after the frontal
passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Pattern shift will take place this week as upper level troughiness
takes place over the western United States and the eastern portions
see ridging.  This will transition the forecast area into a much
warmer pattern that begins early in the week with moderate
temperatures continuing into next weekend.  Upper level high
pressure will setup over the western Atlantic Ocean just off the
coast of Georgia.  The vertically stacked high will place a surface
high off the coast as well by Thursday night.  A weak wave of low
pressure will move east across the forecast area late Friday into
Friday night along a stationary front that will lie Southwest to
Northeast across the forecast area. Low pressure will move northeast
into the western Great Lakes forcing a the stationary front to lift
north as a warm front Sunday.  This should place the forecast area
in the warm sector once again.

Due to the close proximity of the stationary front to the forecast
area and the waves of low pressure affecting the Great Lakes, some
moisture will remain present through the period and will bring
increasing chances for precipitation each day.  The exception will
be Sunday when there are some differences in the models in the
timing of the low pressure out of the Southwest.  GFS has the low
and associated moisture out of the area Sunday but lags behind in
the European.  Will trend this period toward a dry forecast and see
how timing adjustments occur with time.

Otherwise, looking at a fairly mild pattern through the extended
period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the night as we await low
level moisture to arrive toward sunrise. As a warm front
approaches we will see a brief period of MVFR ceilings. This is
likely when the light rain will develop. As the warm front moves
across the area and the steady rainfall occurs expect to see a
period of IFR conditions. Conditions will then slowly improve
from south to north through the day as the warm front eventually
lifts onto Lake Erie.

Southerly winds will increase overnight as a moderately strong
low level jet develops. Have placed a low level wind shear
mention in the TAF`s, especially for the time period when the
warm front is pushing across the region. Winds will become more
gusty from south to north as the rain decreases in coverage
Monday afternoon.

The downsloping southerly flow near KERI will nudge wind gusts
up by sunrise and then likely persist into Monday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continues into early Tuesday. Non-VFR
possible all sites in showers on Wednesday then again on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure drifting off to the east will allow southerly flow to
continue tonight. For Monday, winds will increase from the south to
the southwest at 15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts as a warm front
moves over the area and north of the lake. Low pressure will move
along front on Tuesday and extend a cold front across the area on
Wednesday, shifting winds around to the northwest at 5-15 kts. High
pressure building in on Thursday behind the front will allow for
fairly calm conditions through the end of the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures are possible on Tuesday, February 20th.
Here are record high temperatures for climate sites for that date:

Climate Site       Record High    Year
Cleveland (CLE)        69         1930
Akron-Canton (CAK)     67         2016
Youngstown (YNG)       65         2016 and 1939
Mansfield (MFD)        66         2016 and 1930
Toledo (TOL)           66         1930
Erie, PA (ERI)         66         2016 and 1930

Temperatures on Tuesday, February 20th are forecast to be close to
all time record highs for the month of February. Here are the all
time daily record high temperatures for the month:

Climate Site       Record High    Date
Cleveland (CLE)        77         2/24/2017
Akron-Canton (CAK)     76         2/24/2017
Youngstown (YNG)       75         2/24/2017
Mansfield (MFD)        74         2/24/2017
Toledo (TOL)           71         2/24/2017 (Tie with 4 dates)
Erie, PA (ERI)         77         2/24/2017

Temperatures on Tuesday, February 20th are also forecast to be
close to all time record highs for the meteorological winter season
(December - February). Here are the all time daily record high
temperatures for the winter season:

Climate Site       Record High    Date
Cleveland (CLE)        77         2/24/2017
Akron-Canton (CAK)     76         2/24/2017 and 12/3/1982
Youngstown (YNG)       76         12/3/1982
Mansfield (MFD)        74         2/24/2017
Toledo (TOL)           71         2/24/2017 (Tie with 6 dates)
Erie, PA (ERI)         77         2/24/2017

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...Sefcovic
CLIMATE...Sefcovic


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