Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 170007
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
707 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track out of the Plains towards southern Lake
Michigan by Tuesday morning lifting a warm front north across the
area. The low will drift towards the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday
evening with a weak cold front shifting east behind it. High
pressure will build overhead Wednesday then shift to the east coast
on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Temperatures are all 35 degrees or warmer and will
continue to rise through the night. A few showers continue to
move northeast across Northeast Ohio this evening. These showers
will be light and short lived. Steadier, more widespread rain is
just starting to enter far southwest Ohio. This should get into
the western portions of the CWA around 9 or 10 PM. Fog continues
to develop ahead of the main wave of precipitation, but
visibilities should remain high enough that a dense fog advisory
will not be needed. The fog should begin to dissipate some once
the steady precipitation arrives.

Previous discussion...
At 3 PM low pressure was located near Kansas City with the warm
front extending eastward towards the Ohio River Valley. Fog has
been developing in Indiana where dewpoints have been increasing
with temperatures slower to rise with easterly surface winds.
Visibilities are starting to drop off from Findlay to Marion and
expect fog to expand across northwest Ohio this evening. There may
be a window of dense fog but expect some improvement in
visibilities as the rain moves in. A Dense Fog Advisory may be
needed for a portion of northwest Ohio.

Water vapor imagery shows a compact circulation curling towards the
Great Lakes Region with moisture spreading north ahead of it. Rain
will expand upstream as this feature approaches and will become
widespread across northwest Ohio towards midnight, then expand
eastward into Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms have been developing
along a narrow ribbon of elevated instability that will spread as
far north as Lake Erie by 12Z. Did include a slight chance of
thunderstorms for all areas with good lift ahead of the dry-slot.

Most areas will receive between 0.50-1.00 inch QPF with locally
higher amounts possible if coverage of convection is a little more
than expected. The nose of a 50 knot low level jet will begin to
shift more towards Pittsburgh by Tuesday morning and better chances
of convection may be focused across southern/central Ohio. The rain
will move through fairly quickly on Tuesday as the dry-slot wraps
into the system so not looking for a prolonged rain event like last
week. Areas rivers will see rises from the additional rainfall but
most are not expected to reach flood stage unless basin average
qpf exceeds an inch. Some ponding of water possible in poor
drainage areas, especially if rain comes down quickly.

Temperatures will warm overnight and be in the 50s most areas on
Tuesday. Record highs range from 58-60 degrees at MFD/CLE/CAK/YNG so
several sites will be close.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low pressure will shift east across Lake Ontario Tuesday night with
weak cold advection wrapping in behind the system. Temperatures will
cool back into the 30s overnight with a lingering chance of light
showers with the passage of one more shortwave. Precipitation will
be mostly rain but may start to mix with snow late.

High pressure builds overhead Wednesday but expect ample low level
moisture to remain. Kept skies mostly cloudy with partial clearing
developing during the evening but may end up taking until Thursday.
Warming trend resumes on Thursday with highs in the low to mid
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very warm but wet period setting up for the extended period.
Models continue to move a low pressure system across the area Friday
then exiting the area Friday night.  Models have been consistent
with this feature so will bump pops up to likely.   Models differ on
the timing somewhat...so may see a few lingering showers in the
extreme east Saturday morning.  But by afternoon everyone should be
high and dry with highs in the 45 to 50 degree range.   More rain on
tap late Sunday through Monday as upper level low develops and
drifts slowly across the Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
MVFR/IFR ceilings will continue to spread across the region
through the evening. This will be slowed slightly where the
better downsloping winds around KERI. We will then monitor an area
of rain that will spread southwest to northeast across the region.
All locations will become IFR with the rain. We will need to
monitor some stronger winds around 2000 feet at 40 knots around
12z. Later shifts will need to monitor this and determine if we
will need some low level wind shear in the TAF`s.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Tuesday and Tuesday night in -ra. May mix with
or change to a little snow Wednesday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Light Southeast flow will turn to the south early Tuesday as a warm
front lifts across the lake.  Winds turn to the Southwest by
tomorrow evening as a cold front moves across the lake.  Winds
increase to 10 to 15 knots Tuesday night and will continue through
Wednesday night.  Light and variable winds are expected Thursday
night into Friday as high pressure builds back over the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Mottice
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...Mullen
MARINE...DJB



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