Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 160406
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1206 AM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR MID WEEK...THEN BE REINFORCED BY
ANOTHER HIGH THAT PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA TO THE EASTERN
LAKES FOR LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. THE NEXT NOTABLE WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RAIN IS BEGINNING TO PULL OUT FROM WEST TO EAST AT THIS TIME AS
DRIER AIR MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. WILL CONTINUE WITH TREND OF ENDING PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...REST OF FORECAST LOOKING GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE OH/NW PA FIRST THING IN
THE MORNING...LAKE ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE WITH H8 TEMPS OF +5 AND
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY AND LEAVE NOTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED TO BROKEN
CLOUDS. EXPECT STRATUS TO REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FOR WEDNESDAY. A
BACKDOOR WEAK COLD FRONT SINK SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.
MOISTURE STILL LOOKS LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT THE SILENT 20 PERCENT
CHANCES. IT WILL BE MORE OF A CLOUD COVER FORECAST AND THIS WILL
JUST REINFORCE THE COOL AIR MASS. THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. NOT MUCH SPREAD WITH
GUIDANCE AND DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO STRAY FAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. TYPICAL HIGHS/LOWS ARE AROUND 74/54
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MOST OF THE CALENDAR YEAR...THE LONG TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE RETURN OF THE TROUGH ALOFT
OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MUCH FASTER WITH THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP...
BRINGING SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS MORE RIDGING ALOFT AND HOLDS BACK THE SHOWERS
UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. WILL LEAN
IN THIS DIRECTION GIVEN THE DRY TIME OF YEAR. THERE HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENCY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY. WE MAY NEED "SHOWERS LIKELY" FOR SUNDAY BUT NOT GOING THERE
QUITE YET. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH TROUGHINESS ON MONDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY...UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S. SINCE WE ARE GOING WITH A DRY FORECAST SATURDAY AND A NICE
SOUTH FLOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST OF HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE. COOLER ON
SUNDAY...BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL... AND THEN A FEW DEGREES COOLER
ON MONDAY AS TEMPS SINK BACK BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF RAIN SPREADING INTO NW OHIO WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING...EXITING ERI BETWEEN 07-08Z. VISIBILITIES IN
SHOWERS RANGE FROM 6 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN TO 2-3 MILES IN MODERATE
RAIN. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT OVER
WEST CENTRAL OHIO. THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR AT MOST LOCATIONS AFTER 05Z...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ERI. DRIER AIR DOES ARRIVE FROM THE NORTH ON TUE MORNING
BUT DELAYED THE IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR BY A COUPLE HOURS. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST/NORTH MOST
AREAS.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. WINDS MAY BE A BIT
VARIABLE EARLY IN THE EVENING AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ALONG
THE FRONT. EVENTUALLY THE WIND WILL SETTLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO
NORTH. WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME
BUT THE DURATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE LONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL VEER THE WIND BACK FROM
THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND THE LAKE WILL LIKELY GET CHOPPY ALTHOUGH
THE CURRENT WIND SPEED AND WAVES REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY AND THE
SOUTH FLOW WILL BE ENHANCED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. BY
SATURDAY THE LAKE SHOULD GET STIRRED UP AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KOSARIK





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