Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 291958
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
358 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
STALL OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS
ON THE FRONT OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO
PENNSYLVANIA BY MONDAY MORNING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND HAS LIKELY REACHED ITS
MAXIMUM INTENSITY AND COVERAGE FOR THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS
INCREASED WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG WITH WEAK WIND SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOMEWHAT ELEVATED PRECIPITAL WATER NEAR
1.5 INCHES...DCAPE IS MODEST TOO. SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW.
EXPECTED ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DIURNALLY THIS EVENING WITH JUST A
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS...MIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD TRYING TO TIME THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND ALONG A COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY
AND THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF A WAVE ON THE STALLED FRONT
SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

FOR SATURDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR EXPECT JUST SCATTERED CONVECTION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
EXPECT A LINE WITH NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP AFTER 21Z-22Z AND
THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. WILL RAMP UP POPS TO REFLECT THE
INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST. HAVE
RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TO THE 80-85 DEGREE RANGE.

THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND STALL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL OHIO AS A WAVE DEVELOPS WEST OF THE REGION ALONG THE
FRONT. OVERRUNNING SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS THUNDER CAN BE EXPECTED
SUNDAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH MUCH COLDER AIR. FLOW OFF OF COOL
LAKE ERIE IN COMBINATION WITH RAIN COOLED AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY.
LIKELY POPS ARE EXPECTED.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SLOWLY PROGRESS THE LOW ACROSS THE REGION
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE COOL NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA NEXT WEEK. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
RATHER ZONAL BUT THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE UNTIL LATER IN
THE WEEK WHEN THE SOUTH FLOW RETURNS AND WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION DEVELOPS. HAVE A LOW POP ON FRIDAY AND IT COULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY...NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...AND ABOVE NORMAL LATE WEEK.
LAKE BREEZES WILL KEEP THE LAKE ERIE LAKESHORE A BIT COOLER THROUGH
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FIRST WEAK SHORT WAVES IS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE AXIS OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEFT BEHIND ACROSSNORTH
CENTRAL OHIO. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE
EAST AND PUT A TEMPO OR VCTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TAF
FORECASTS. THERE SHOULD BE LULL AGAIN TONIGHT. PATCHY MVFR FOG IS
LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT O SATURDAY BUT MAINLY AFTER 18Z.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN
SHRA/TSRA. NON VFR POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
MARINERS WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE ALERT ON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD
SHIFT RATHER ABRUPTLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THOUGH SUNDAY.

THE LATEST COMPUTER MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A WAVE ON THE FRONT WHICH
COULD ENHANCE THE NORTHEAST WIND ON SUNDAY BUT NOT A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. A NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. THE GRADIENT SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT BUT THE NORTHEAST WIND CAN BE FICKLE ON THE WESTERN HALF OF
LAKE ERIE SO MARINERS THAT HAVE BOATING PLANS EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CHECK THE FORECAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK


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