Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241411
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1011 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crossing the area will move off to the southeast this
morning. High pressure will drop southeast across the area Tuesday
into early Wednesday. A cold front will push southeast through the
region Thursday then high pressure will spread over the area for the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A few showers still moving through our southeastern counties
this morning. Can not rule out an isolated thunderstorm in the
far east for another hour or two but removed any mention of
thunder from the forecast by early afternoon as temperatures
start to warm again aloft with a cap developing. Lowered
temperatures a couple degrees for today most areas given the
continued cold advection and cloud cover.

Previous discussion...
A cold front pushing se thru the cwa this morning will produce sct
shra/tsra for mainly the ne half of the cwa. Even though the front
pushes off to the se by aftn, a sharp upper trough will maintain
instability the rest of the day so a threat for shra/tsra will hang
on into early evening until temps start to cool and stabilize the
atmosphere. Rainfall amounts today will be light with mostly places
seeing a tenth of an inch or less. Highs will be cooler, mostly 75
to 80.

An isolated shra or two could come into the snowbelt off of Lake
Erie tonight into Tue morning due to the upper trough, but by Tue
aftn the trough should shift east enough to end a lingering threat
for shra for the inland areas by evening. Much of the cwa will see
more sunshine on Tue but temps will stay below normal with highs
from the lower 70s in the far NE to around 80 SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The surface high will be east of the area on Wednesday. Winds will
come around from the south and southeast and heights are progged to
rise as the ridge aloft builds in briefly. Some patchy high clouds
will brush the area and some cumulus may pop up in the eastern
counties but we should be capped and able to warm up nicely. 850 mb
temperatures are progged to range from 16 to 19C by the end of the
day. Will forecast highs a little above guidance, generally in the
lower and mid 80s and a few spots could push the upper 80s.

The models continue to struggle with the front on Thursday, with
many of the models exhibiting a look of convective feedback. A wave
of low pressure may indeed develop on the front, although probably
not as deep as progged. A wave will likely slow the arrival of the
front and will continue with chance/likely pops into Thursday night.
Given the uncertainty on the timing of the showers for Thursday,
will stick close to guidance temperatures with highs near normal,
about 80 to 85.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The surface front should be south of the area on Friday although the
front may be slower than indicated by the models if the surface wave
is weaker. There is also the chance for a shallow front this time of
year. With the trough aloft, cannot rule out a shower or perhaps
drizzle on Friday, probably just in the morning. Temps and dew
points will drop back to more comfortable levels.

Most of the models indicate a trailing short wave, perhaps a weak
closed low, that slides into the trough across the eastern Great
Lakes on Saturday. Will play the odds that the boundary layer will
be dry and stable enough to keep the showers at bay. High pressure
should be in control by Sunday. Temperatures over the weekend will
be a few degrees below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A cold front from near FDY to just inland from ERI will push se thru
CAK and YNG thru the morning with NW winds of 10 to 20 knots
developing behind the front, then diminishing by late this evening.
There may be some patchy fog around YNG until 14z. MVFR cigs should
develop thru 16z then gradually improve the rest of the day as drier
low level air spreads se across the area. ERI and possibly YNG may
not get above MVFR cig heights by the end of the day before cigs
start to lower again after dark.

There will be sct shra and isolated tsra for mainly the NE half of
the area today with possible isolated shra lingering near ERI
tonight.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR expected in the east Tue morning. Non-VFR in
thunderstorms with a cold front expected Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak cold front will drop south of Lake Erie early this morning
and winds will become northwest to west and speeds will pick up to
the 15 to 20 knot range this afternoon and the lake will get choppy.
Will issue a small craft advisory east of the islands starting
at noon. Another weak front will drop across the lake this
evening and winds will veer more northerly. Winds and waves will
pick up immediately following the front this evening and small
craft advisory conditions are likely into tonight east of the
Islands.

High pressure will build across Lake Erie on Tuesday. Northeast
winds will persist but wind speeds and waves should subside.

The high will be off to the east on Wednesday and winds will come
around from the south. A cold front is expected to drop across the
lake on Thursday although it may take until late in the day or at
night for winds to shift from the north. Small craft advisory
conditions may occur after the frontal passage Thursday night into
Friday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for OHZ009>012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/KEC
SHORT TERM...Kosarik
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Kosarik



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