Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 281138
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
738 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of high pressure over the eastern United States will
remain in place through the weekend, bringing a humid, warm
airmass to the region and a chance for showers and thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday afternoon. A weak cold front will move across
the area late Sunday night. High pressure will reestablish itself
over the Ohio Valley on Monday and remain in place through mid-
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update... Just updated temperatures and dew points to reflect
current trends this morning, otherwise, everything is track thus
far.

Original Discussion...
An upper level ridge and surface high pressure over the East
Coast of the United States continues to remain in place for
Saturday. This will allow for temperatures to surge back into the
mid to upper 80s Saturday afternoon with dew points in the low to
mid 60s with winds out of the south.

The big question for the day is the chance for precipitation.
Over the past couple days, model guidance has been bullish on rain
chances and the status quo has been a 30-40, chance pop for a pop-
up shower or thunderstorm, which has largely not occurred. Once
again, the models are bullish on the precipitation for Saturday.
The moisture profile looks a bit better today than it has been the
last two days as most areas should see some additional moisture
in the low-levels. However, the question is what will trigger any
convection to form today. The lake breeze will likely be in place
for extreme northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania and could
kick off a shower or two, but it did not do so on Friday. The
other forcing of note is a low-level jet max moving over the
Ohio/Indiana border Saturday afternoon and could support some
rising motion and kick off some showers. However, largely not sold
on rain development so placed a small window of slight chance to
low chance pops in the forecast for Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The same forecast question of Saturday will remain for Sunday,
although a weakening cold front will move through the area late
and could finally be the forcing needed to have showers form over
the area. Therefore, went with a chance pop for Sunday with highs
perhaps a touch cooler than Saturday.

The weakening cold front moves out by Monday and high pressure
reestablishes itself for the remainder of the short term, keeping
rain chances to a minimum. Temperatures will be closer to the 80
degree mark behind the cold front with overnight lows a bit
cooler as well around the 60 degree mark. Skies look to be
relatively clear to complete the month of May and Memorial Day
should be a fantastic weather day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The models look to be consolidating in the extended forecast and
bring a trough across the Great Lakes the second half of next week.
There should be a decent chance of showers/storms with the cold
front on Thursday but the GFS has a convective feedback look to it
and the CMC is weaker so kept the forecast as "chance" for the time
being until we see more consistency from run to run and model to
model. Will leave a small chance of showers in the forecast on
Friday. The front may be east of the area but the trough aloft may
be overhead on Friday.

The temperature forecast depends on the timing of the front. It will
likely remain warm on Wednesday and perhaps Thursday but
temperatures will drop back toward normal after the cold frontal
passage late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
No real trigger for showers or thunderstorms again today. There
can certainly be some activity by this afternoon. The 850 mb wind
will be 5 to 10 knots higher than yesterday across northwest
Ohio...but other than the warm temps and some instability...cannot
pin down a time or place where thunderstorms might develop. Will
leave it out of the TAF forecasts until can get more definitive
about the likelihood at each of the airports. There will be a lake
breeze wind shift at KERI by 16z or so.

With the moist south flow...a shower or thunderstorm may continue
to pop up tonight but given the low probability at any given
location will not include it in the TAF forecasts tonight.

Outlook...Scattered non-VFR possible in mainly afternoon showers
and thunderstorms Sunday. Brief MVFR possible in early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday KMFD to KCAK and KYNG.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake Erie will remain quiet to start the holiday weekend with high
pressure along the Mid-Atlantic coast and a light south to southwest
flow. Onshore winds will develop mainly on the east half of the lake
this afternoon. A local thunderstorm cannot be ruled out today but
there will be a somewhat better chance for thunderstorms on Sunday
as a weak cold front approaches from the west. The front will push
east of the lake on Monday. The west flow behind the front will
become brisk on Monday and the lake will get a bit choppy,
especially the east half of the lake. High pressure will slide by on
Tuesday and winds will veer more to the northeast and then
southeast and south by midweek ahead of the next cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Sefcovic
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik


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