Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 260815
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
415 AM EDT Wed Apr 26 2017
A series of lows will move northward along a cold front that
will slowly move toward the central Great Lakes through tonight.
The strongest piece of low pressure will lift northeast across
Ontario on Thursday with a cold front moving through the area.
High pressure will briefly build into northern Ohio Thursday
night into early Friday. A warm front will then drift northward
across the region on Saturday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
The region is between storm systems today as low pressure moves
up the East Coast of the US and low pressure moves into the
upper Great lakes. This will allow for increasing southerly flow
today and even warmer than yesterday with minimal impacts from
cloud cover. However there is an area of lower clouds across NW
PA that may slow the warming in that area. Otherwise expect to
see a dry day with highs well into the 80s near and west of
I-71. Eastern Ohio into NW PA will still see a well above
average day with highs in the 70s to around 80. A few locations
along the lakeshore from Mentor to Erie will be kept cooler with
a lake breeze developing.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be moving into the region on Thursday with
showers and thunderstorms developing. Coverage through Thursday
morning is in question but expect there will be at least some
scattered showers/thunderstorms. Very warm airmass ahead of the
front will assist in making the atmosphere unstable. However the
depth of the low level moisture that can advect into the region
may be marginal due to convection that is expected across the
TN river valley. In any event a few of the storms may become
strong to severe with the main concern being some strong winds.
Believe this is worth a mention in the HWO even though SPC
outlook is only marginal.
High pressure will then take control of the region Thursday
night into Friday. The next storm system will be impacting the
region by Friday night as warm advection increases ahead of it.
So after midnight Friday night through Saturday the region will
be dealing with showers and thunderstorms. The thunderstorms
will likely be most numerous Saturday afternoon. It then appears
that the main lift will start to shift westward closer to the
area of low pressure Saturday night. We do have chances
decreeing Saturday night but there will still be at least some
Temperatures will dip in the wake of the cold front on Friday
but the region will still remain above seasonal averages.
Saturdays highs will all hinge on how widespread the
showers/thunderstorms become. Highs should still range from the
mid 60s to mid 70s from north to south.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A warm front will lift north across the area Sunday as a low treks
from the Southern Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A
strong upper level trough with an impressive 100+ knot 500 mb jet
streak will punch into the Illinois area by Sunday evening, meaning
the brunt of the lift associated with this system will stay off to
our west on Sunday. However, there will be ample moisture around and
difluent flow aloft, so expect some thunderstorms to develop along
the warm front as it lifts northward. Could see some storms develop
in the warm sector as well during the afternoon as temperatures warm
to around 80 across southern portions of the CWA, but it may be
difficult to get much coverage with the main upper-level features
still well off to the west.
The cold front associated with this low will approach the area
Sunday night into Monday. The ECMWF continues to be slower than the
GFS with the timing of this front, bringing the front through Monday
morning/afternoon. The ECMWF tends to handle lows that come from the
southwest better, so will trend more towards this timing. If the
cold front does indeed move through late Sunday night into Monday
morning, this will significantly limit any severe threat. However,
IF the timing is delayed even six hours or so from what the current
ECMWF shows, Monday could shape up to be a very interesting day
severe weather wise - but it is nothing more than conjecture this
far out. The low won`t even really begin to take shape until the
Friday/Saturday time frame, so this will bear watching over the
High pressure will then build in behind the front Monday night into
Tuesday with only a slight chance of some showers as we get some
wrap around moisture as the parent upper-level low exits off to the
.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
VFR conditions and dry weather are expected the entire TAF
period. The only exception in the near term is KERI as some CIGs
BKN025 will hang around over the next few hours. East to
southeast winds will become southerly and increase on Wed. Gusts
to 25 knots are possible in the west and south during the day.
Will try for a lake breeze at KERI beginning around midday.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in advance of a cold front Thursday
and then with showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into
early Friday morning.
East to southeast winds of 5 to 15 knots will continue on Lake Erie
through this afternoon before finally shifting around to the south
with the passage of a warm front tonight. Southwest winds will
increase to near 20 knots on the western basin Thursday afternoon
but may be able to avoid a Small Craft Advisory given the offshore
component. Winds will shift to the west Thursday night as a cold
front sweeps east across the lake.
A secondary cold front will move south across the lake early
Saturday. A period of east/northeast flow of 10 to 20 knots will set
up Saturday night ahead of the next low pressure system tracking out
of the Plains. Winds will turn back out of the southwest Sunday as a
warm front lifts north across the lake. West-southwest winds may
increase to 15 to 25 knots Monday in the wake of a cold front.