Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 201044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
644 AM EDT Thu Oct 20 2016

Low pressure will track northeastward along a frontal boundary
that will drift northward into central Ohio today. The low will
reach central New York State tonight. As the low passes this
evening it will pull a strong cold front eastward with it. Much
cooler air will spill across Northern Ohio and Northwestern
Pennsylvania Friday into Saturday which will cause favorable
conditions for lake effect showers across the snowbelt.


Narrow swath of heavy rain has occurred from KCAK to KYNG. Seems
to be a quick inch and a half of rainfall but rates are decreasing
significantly so do not anticipate any major issues. This area
will need to be monitored through the remainder of the day. If it
trains over this area again there could be issues.

Otherwise have made no significant changes to the current
forecast. Radar trends are beginning to indicate a brief break in
the showers/thunderstorms but we believe it should fill back in

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure will track northeastward along a frontal boundary
that will drift northward into central Ohio today. This will keep
the region in a favorable location for the continuation of the
showers. Warmer unstable air will attempt to drift northward into
the southeastern County Warning Area (CWA) for a few hours. It
appears the best chances for thunder will be near and southeast of
a line from Mount Gilead to Erie. Since the warm front will be in
close proximity we will need to monitor for rotation in the
stronger storms that may develop.

Locally heavy rainfall remains possible but it has been fairly
dry up to this point this fall. If a line of stronger convection
develops and trains across the southeastern CWA a short fused
Flash FLood watch may be needed.

Otherwise it will be a wet and cooler day for much of the region
with highs in the 60s...maybe a few upper 50s across NW Ohio. The
warm sector will likely nudge into the southeastern CWA allowing
highs to at least briefly warm into the lower 70s.


The showers and thunderstorms will move slowly eastward tonight
as the area of low pressure moves into central NY State. A strong
cold front will move eastward with it allowing cooler air to spill
across the region. It will take into Friday evening to get the
upper level trough east of the CWA. So expect to see showers
linger well into the day. As the upper trough passes Friday
evening it will allow the coldest air to arrive. After a brief
lull in the showers it appears the lake effect machine will get
cranked up. So expect showers to develop over NE OH/NW PA. 850 mb
temperatures dip to -2 C to -4 C late Friday night into Saturday
morning. Have decided to mention some snow showers across the
higher terrain of inland NW PA. Have mainly gone with locations
above 1300 feet. The lake effect showers should gradually taper
off Saturday night as they lift up the lake into Western NY. So as
a surface ridge increases its influence early Sunday morning there
should be a brief dry period. Unfortunately there is another
clipper type storm system diving across the Central Great Lakes
Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Best chances for additional
showers will be across extreme NE OH into NW PA. Currently it
appears these showers will hold off until after 6 pm Sunday

It will be much cooler Friday with highs only into the 50s. Even
cooler on Saturday with highs struggling to reach the middle to
upper 40s. A few locations along the lakeshore and NW OH will be
able to touch the lower 50s. Warmer on Sunday in advance of the
clipper storm system with highs fairly close to seasonal averages
that range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.


We will continue to have a threat of showers across far NE OH/NW PA
with flow off of the lake and the thermal trough overhead on Monday.
Available moisture seems to be a limiting factor so have
kept the precip chances low. High pressure then builds in from the
west for later Monday through Wednesday...with slowly moderating
temperatures. Timing differences amongst the models on how quickly
we can recover though.


.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Conditions will deteriorate as low pressure moves northeast along
a front across the upper Ohio Valley over the next 24 hours. Rain
will overspread much of the area before dawn after which a lull
of several hours is possible. There may be a few rumbles of
thunder toward MFD/CAK with this early round. Showers across the
area and possibly more thunderstorms /MFD CAK YNG/ bubble up
later this afternoon. A steadier rain returns as the wind shifts
and the colder air arrives toward evening. IFR possible in any of
the heavier showers and any TS. A swath of IFR ceilings most
likely along and just north of the front which will become more
defined with time. Conditions more variable south of this front.
Unsure how far north to take the widespread IFR cigs...and made an
adjustment to TOL...keeping them MVFR. Wind on the north/cold side
of the front pick up to 10 to 15 knots and continue that way into
tonight. We may see some gusts to 25 knots.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continuing through Friday morning...lifting
across the west Friday afternoon. Northeast OH/northwest PA will
have Non VFR possible through Sunday morning.


A period of stiff winds on the lake starting midday today and
continuing through the weekend. Low pressure will move northeast
across the upper Ohio Valley today/tonight. Cold air will wrap in on
the backside of the system and the gradient will tighten as high
pressure builds slowly in from the west. The northeast wind will
increase this morning and begin to back to the north for this
afternoon. Small craft conditions will likely be met by midday
across the west and central portions of the lake...followed by an
increase across the east by late afternoon. Winds will come around
to the northwest for Friday afternoon through Sunday
morning...persisting between 15 and 25 knots. Although small craft
advisory ends on Friday...a large portion of it will continue on
through the weekend. The high finally settles south of the lake on
Sunday and the winds lessen and back to the west and southwest. The
next system will move quickly across the upper Midwest and Great
Lakes Sunday night...bringing the winds around to the northwest on
Erie for Monday and likely bringing them up enough that we will be
talking about a small craft advisory again.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 AM EDT Friday for


NEAR TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Oudeman
MARINE...Oudeman is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.