Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 101145
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
645 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS EXPECTED THE SNOW ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY SINCE
03Z. STILL SEEING SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BUT ACCUMS SINCE
MIDNIGHT APPEAR TO BE UNDER AN INCH WITH STORM TOTALS MAINLY 1 TO
3 INCHES WITH PERHAPS A FEW 4 INCH AMOUNTS SO FAR. THE FIRST HALF
OF TODAY SHOULD SEE LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT SITUATION WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF KCLE. DO EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND SHOULD HELP PUSH THE SNOW INTO INTERIOR AREAS. THE
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE SNOW BLOSSOMING AFTER 18Z OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. WILL GIVE MUCH OF THE AREA LIKELY OR
HIGHER POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ACCUMS WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAY WITH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE MOST OF THE AREA WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE SNOWBELT WHERE THE HEADLINES CONTINUE. THE
DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO WATCH EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY TO MAKE SURE
THEY DON`T APPROACH ADVISORY TYPE SNOW AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PLACES LIKE TRUMBULL AND MAHONING COUNTIES COULD SEE A
COUPLE OF INCHES BY 00Z AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO TONIGHT. THIS IS
WAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 4 INCHES IN 12 HOURS SO SEE NO NEED
FOR A HEADLINE THERE EITHER. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST HIGHS FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GET GOING EARLY THIS EVENING AS SATURATED
AIR FINALLY REACHES THE PREFERRED SNOW GROWTH ZONE. THE GOOD
MOISTURE WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED SO EXPECTED THE WORST OF THE
EVENT TO BE TONIGHT. LAKE HURON EVENTUALLY GETS INTO THE ACT LATER
TONIGHT BUT BY THAT TIME THE GOOD SYNOPTIC MOISTURE WILL BE
PULLING AWAY. HAVE FINED TUNED THE SNOW TOTALS IN THE WARNING
STATEMENT THAT JUST WENT OUT. AGAIN...THE DAY CREW WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE PERIPHERAL AREAS TO MAKE SURE ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE
NOT NEEDED. RIDGING WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND BY LATE IN THE DAY
THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE UP THE LAKE FROM THE LOCAL AREA.
WESTERN AREAS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT BUT THE
MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE SNOWBELT. SOME CLEARING IN THE WEST
IN POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A TRUE ARCTIC AIRMASS IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
850 TEMPS POSSIBLE GETTING TO NEG 25 OR COLDER. THIS WILL BE THE
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE YEAR. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE
ANOTHER LAKE HURON FETCH OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH AN AIRMASS THIS
COLD THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY DRY. LATER SHIFTS WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. HAVE
CONTINUE WITH THE FRIGID TEMPS IN THE FORECAST. MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD GET BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
WINTER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO FEATURE A BIG RIDGE OUT WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HEIGHTS RISE A BIT IN THE EAST BUT THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL START TO RECOVER AND TEMPS WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO GO UP
SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON MONDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIP. IT DEVELOPS AN EAST COAST LOW BY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN
TAKING A SOUTHERN LOW AND BOUNCING IT BETWEEN THE OHIO VALLEY AND
THE EAST COAST BUT ULTIMATELY DEVELOPING AN EAST COAST LOW. THE CMC
ALSO HAS A SOUTHERN LOW BUT IT STAYS PRETTY FAR SOUTH. IN ANY
CASE...THERE WOULD SEEM TO BE AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME WARM
ADVECTION SNOW...JUST NO CONFIDENCE ON THE AMOUNTS/DURATION YET.

CLOUDS MAY LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AND SOME LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP IS
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY MIDWEEK AND TRACK TOWARD THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
RECOVERED TO NEAR NORMAL BY THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND SNOW
SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. IFR VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS WILL OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. THE
MAJORITY OF THE SNOW SHOULD END ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ACROSS NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND GUSTY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. NON VFR IN
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BRISK WINDS WILL BE COMMON ON LAKE ERIE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW GALE FORCE.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 30 KNOTS AND BECOME
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. SOME FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY BUT ACCRETION RATES SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE.

WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC FRONT. THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE LAKE BY FRIDAY
EVENING AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 30 KNOTS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE BY SUNDAY AND WINDS
WILL LIGHTEN. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH BY LATE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES EAST OF THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ012-
     089.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR OHZ013-
     014.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ001.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ002-
     003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK


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