Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 262306
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
606 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD TO THE OHIO
VALLEY ON FRIDAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS
OHIO ON SUNDAY BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LAKE ENHANCED FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
AND SHOULD BE DONE BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. DRIER AIR
PUSHING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING FROM NNW TO SSE DURING THE NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL OVERNIGHT WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
DROPPING TO NEAR THE 10 BELOW ZERO THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FALL THIS EVENING
WITH CLOUDS AND NORTHERLY WINDS OF 5-10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REALLY START TO FALL LATER TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS DROPPING OFF TO NEAR CALM.
THERE IS STILL A CHANCE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED IF TEMPERATURES FALL FASTER OR WINDS DO NOT DROP BELOW 5
MPH OR LESS BUT LOOKS TOO MARGINAL AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE. THE AREA
OF GREATEST CONCERN IS ALONG THE NORTHEAST LAKESHORE WHERE WINDS
MAY STAY UP JUST ENOUGH NEAR THE LAKE TO DROP CLOSER TO 15 BELOW
LATE TONIGHT. WITH ALL THAT SAID...IT WILL BE VERY COLD AGAIN BY
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM ZERO TO 10 BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND
ONLY SLOWLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THROUGH SATURDAY. PLENTY OF
SUN CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME WITH ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AROUND ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COLDER WITH CALM WINDS
EXPECTED FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY AS WE DECOUPLE. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS
OF 5 TO 15 BELOW BUT A MUCH WIDER SPREAD IS LIKELY. VALLEYS AND
COOLER LOCATIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN DROP TO 20 BELOW. WIND CHILL
HEADLINES NOT EXPECTED AGAIN DUE TO THE LIGHT WINDS ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXTREMELY COLD AND RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN AT
MANY SITES AGAIN.

HEIGHTS GRADUALLY REBOUND OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS BACK SOUTH AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. WARM ADVECTION SNOW WILL
SPREAD INTO THE WEST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE WHOLE
AREA ON SUNDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO FAIRLY WEAK. MODELS SHOW QPF DURING THIS
TIME RANGING FROM .35 TO .75 OVER THE AREA. MOST OF THIS IS EXPECTED
TO FALL AS SNOW EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OUT OF ROUTE 30 WHERE A CHANCE OF
RAIN IS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY EVENING WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH FOR A
MIX. FORECAST DOES NOT INCLUDE SNOW THAT FAR OUT BUT LOOKING LIKE A
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKE AN ADVISORY EVENT BUT
CAN NOT RULE OUT HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS OR WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE LOOKING MORE CONSISTENT FOR THE MID WEEK SYSTEM WITH
A LOT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND A WAVE RUNNING UP THE FRONT TO OUR WEST.
THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR TO FLOOD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. STILL NOT VERY COMFORTABLE WITH THE EXACT TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SPECIFIC TIMING. THE WARM UP
WILL BE SLOWED TO SOME EXTENT BY THE EXTENSIVE SNOW COVER BUT THERE
CERTAINLY SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL BE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF NUDGING UP FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
ALLOWING FOR A CHANGE TO RAIN. WILL NOT GO AS WARM AS IT COULD GET
JUST YET GIVEN THAT WE ARE STILL 5/6 DAYS AWAY AND NO CONFIDENCE YET
ON THE EXACT TIMING. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES MAY WELL OCCUR TUESDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY...OFFSET OF THE NORMAL HIGH/LOW FORECAST
TIMES. TEMPS COULD BE ALREADY BE ON THE WAY DOWN BY DAYBREAK
WEDNESDAY...OR IT COULD BE 50 DEGREES. OTHER POSSIBILITIES WILL HAVE
TO EXAMINED AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND WE GET MORE COMFORTABLE WITH
THE TIMING SUCH AS THE RISK OF FLOODING AND THE THREAT OF
THUNDERSTORMS.

UNFORTUNATELY... ALL SIGNS POINT TO A RETURN TO MUCH COLDER WEATHER
AGAIN AFTER THE COLD FRONT GOES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING
SHORT WAVE COULD BRING LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LIGHT SNOW AND IFR VISIBILITY WILL MOVE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY
LINGER FOR A WHILE TONIGHT BUT CLEARING AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BY LATE AFTERNOON AT KTOL AND KFDY MOVING
EAST TONIGHT. CLEAR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR SUNDAY...THEN CLEARING ON MONDAY. NON-VFR
REDEVELOPING TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIND EXPECTED ON LAKE ERIE. THE NORTH WIND WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AND BACK TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEST WINDS COULD BE A BIT
BRISK...15-20 KNOTS...BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY. THE FLOW WILL VEER
TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BY TUESDAY AS YET ANOTHER SURFACE ARCTIC
HIGH SYSTEM SLIDES BY THE AREA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK





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