Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 190244
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
944 PM EST Sat Nov 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track across the lower lakes this evening
dragging an arctic front across the forecast area. Lake effect
snow showers will develop Sunday and linger into Monday when
high pressure builds in.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Things are on track as the surface cold front nears the PA
border. Winds have begun to increase behind the front and the
advisory looks good. Have been seeing some snow in the obs at
TOL and had a report of sleet near Norwalk. Have gone ahead
added mixed precip to western areas overnight although no accum
is expected. Scattered showers will diminish from west to east
overnight and it will take some time for the lake effect to get
going.

Previous...Low pressure system just SW of FDY with Current ht
falls near CLE. Low is forecast to track dragging arctic front
across the area. The arctic front should be SW of the forecast
area toward midnight local. There are some thunderstorms with
the system but the best dynamics and shear is south of the warm
front.

Kept the flood watch up basically south of a YNG to FDY line.
The area has received between 1 1/2 to 2 inches with a another
inch or so possible this evening.

Pushed back wind advisory until 7pm.  Warm front just now into
Central Ohio so the winds have not mixed down yet. Once the
arctic front moves through the NW winds will increase to 25 to
35 mph with higher gusts.

Rain will move east of the forecast area overnight. Could see
some snow in the higher elevations of the snowbelt late tonight,
with a dusting or so possible by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The 850 MB temps plunge to -8c by daybreak but by then moisture
is shifting east. Best chance for lake effect snow will be late
Sunday into Sunday night when 850 temps dip to -12c and an upper
level short wave moves across the Eastern Lakes. Still looks to
be below advisory criteria.

The short term begins Monday with high pressure in the over the
lower Ohio Valley. Flow will be off Lake Erie and 850mb temps -7C
although shear will be increasing.  Would expect we begin with snow
showers but they will be decreasing quickly as dry air and high
pressure continue to build and winds back.  Elsewhere expect
increasing sunshine. The next chance for precip will come Tuesday
evening and Tuesday night as another cold front moves through the
area. Will hold precip off until after 00Z Wednesday and begin with
a chance of either rain or snow with highest chance northeast. After
about 3Z will change precip to all snow but will decrease pops as
colder but drier air moves in which should hamper any significant
lake effect.  Highs in the 40s and 50s Monday and Tuesday.  Highs in
the 30s Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Not many changes to long term.  It looks like we will be able to
sneak in a dry and quiet Thanksgiving and also a dry Friday.  Low
pressure will move southeast across the northern lakes Friday night
into Saturday.  The usual timing and placement differences are
present in the 12z guidance. But...it looks it could precip at some
point. Will go ahead with chance pops both periods with best chances
across the northern end of the area.  Precip type remains in
question Friday night but Saturday should see all rain.  Given model
differences going no higher than low chance pops seems reasonable.
Thursday will be a chilly day but temps will warm back into the 40s
for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
The the back edge of the main area of precip is currently along
the I-71 corridor with a second area of rain over NW OH. Both
of these will continue to move east across the area this
evening. The surface cold front should be to CLE and MFD in an
hour or so and east of the area by 06z. Expect cigs behind the
front to dip to IFR for several hours with improvement beginning
in the west late tonight. Sunday will bring a combination of
MVFR and VFR cigs. Have not hit the lake effect very hard at ERI
as warm air coming from the lake should prevent a changeover to
snow.

Perhaps the biggest story of the night will be winds. Expect
strong NW winds to develop overnight with gusts in the 35 to 40
knot range all locations. Speeds will gradually diminish on
Sunday.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continues into Monday across northeast Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania. A brief period of Non-VFR possible
Tuesday night all areas.

&&

.MARINE...
Will continue with the gale warning as it is.  Low pressure will
move northeast of the lake this evening.  Winds behind the low will
increase out of the northwest to 35-40 knot gales this evening
continuing through the night and into Sunday morning. Winds will
remain out of the northwest through Sunday night before backing to
southwest by Monday. Wind speeds will remain 25 to 30 knots Sunday
afternoon through much of Sunday night.  Wind speeds will remain at
or above 20 knots much of the period Monday through Tuesday before
dropping back to 10 to 15 knots Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for OHZ009>014-019>023-
     027>033-036>038-047-089.
     Flood Watch until midnight EST tonight for OHZ017-020>023-
     027>033-036>038-047.
     Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for OHZ003-006>008-017-018.
PA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM EST Sunday for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 AM EST Sunday for LEZ142>144-162>164.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Sunday for LEZ145>149-165>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB/Kubina
SHORT TERM...DJB/TK
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...TK



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