Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 222348
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
748 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016
A weak cold front over the northern Great Lakes will sag south
across the area late tonight or early Saturday. A stronger cold
front will arrive late Sunday night into Monday. High pressure
will move across the Great Lakes early next week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Cumulus have all but faded and last of the showers are
dissipating. Not expecting anything else overnight. No good
trigger. Only tweaked precip chances and sky cover a bit with this
early evening update.
Previous discussion...Subsidence and capping has increased
behind the morning shot wave. There is still some cape and low
level convergence in the vicinity of a weak surface trough lying
across the forecast area just south of the lakeshore. A couple of
thunderstorms will probably pop up over the inland counties
through the evening, but the coverage will probably be limited. A
weak cold front remains to the north across the thumb of MI and
extreme southern Ontario. The front will drift south and should
cross Lake Erie later tonight. The front is shallow, really more
of a wind shift and dew point front, and not expecting any
Winds will likely become light late tonight or early Saturday.
What little radiational cooling that does develop may allow temps to
drop into the upper 60s and lower 70s for lows.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The weak cold front will drop across the forecast area by early
Saturday. We should end up with a dry day except perhaps across the
far southern counties around Route 30 and south where the front will
be so shallow. Dew points will probably end up a degree or two lower
but temperatures could be a degree or two warmer in those areas that
saw temperatures suppressed by the clouds and showers/storms on
Friday. It will be marginal for a heat advisory but will continue
the heat advisory given that Sunday will likely be hot as well.
Most folks will not quibble if the heat index is 99 versus 101.
The heat index will likely be as high if not higher on Sunday and
will extend the heat advisory through Sunday early evening. The
only fly in the ointment on Sunday is if there were to be more
thunderstorms than the current thinking as deeper moisture and
theta-e pushes back north. I suspect that the storms will end up
being widely scattered for much of the day or wait until the next
cold front approaches Sunday night.
The next cold front is progged to drop across the area early
Monday. Again, not very confident on the amount of thunderstorm
coverage. It is still very dry over much of the forecast area and
hoping for decent coverage but will just keep the forecast about
50/50 for now given the pattern this summer. Temperatures on
Monday will lose a few degrees and dew points will begin to drop.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models continue in reasonably good agreement with high pressure
remaining over the forecast area through Thursday. Both models
move a low south of the forecast area on Friday. ECMWF moves the
low across southern ohio...while the GFS is further south and faster
than the ECMWF. For now will just continue with chance pops on
Friday. Temps will continue above normal...but "only" in the mid
to upper 80s.
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A couple areas of thunderstorms and showers developed over inland
northeast Ohio and then dissipated earlier this evening. Clearing
skies continue to push south across the forecast area at this
time. Not expecting any fog at the TAF sites. Winds will diminish
overnight. Expecting lake breeze to develop at Cleveland and Erie
tomorrow. Otherwise, mainly clear skies across the area.
OUTLOOK...Areas of non vfr Sunday into Monday.
Dropped the small craft advisory in the east as the west winds have
topped out around 15 knots. Models continue to move a weak cold
front across the the lake early tonight. Behind the front winds
gradually turn to the northwest and diminish to 10 knots or less
by daybreak. Light and variable winds through the remainder of the
weekend as high pressure over the area. Next chance of a small
craft advisory would be Sunday night into Monday as another cold
front moves across the lake.
OH...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for OHZ003-006>011-017>021-