Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 301912
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
312 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THIS
WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD LAKE ERIE BUT THEN
BECOME STATIONARY ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STARTING TO SEE SOME SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA AS EXPECTED. EXPECT THE COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER DARK AS A LOW LEVEL JET GETS GOING AND
MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO
THICKEN THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WHICH HAS ALLOWED MORE SUN AND
MIXING. SURF FACE DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL GO BACK UP A COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL MEAN A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIRMASS WILL BE OVERHEAD.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IF ANY
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. THIS SCENARIO IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST END OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH WILL BE CLOSEST TO THE
SURFACE LOW. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PRETTY MINIMAL TONIGHT. FREEZING
LEVELS ARE REALLY HIGHS MAKING HAIL UNLIKELY AND NOT SEEING THE
DRYING AT MID LEVELS NEEDED FOR STRONG WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM...MUGGY AND UNSETTLED AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
MOST OF THE PERIOD. UNSEASONABLY WARM SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE LIKE JULY THAN LABOR DAY WEEKEND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
HAVE DIFFICULTY PIN POINTING PRECIP CHANCES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. FURTHER NORTH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD OVER LAKE ERIE IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH
NOW. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE THREAT FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER ALL
AREAS. ANOTHER LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT BACK
ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN A LITTLE BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL NEED ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIKELY OR
HIGHER WORDING FROM LATE MONDAY TILL A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WON`T BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING A
COMPLETE AIRMASS CHANGE BUT SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH BEHIND EXITING TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE IN WEAK FLOW PATTER MOST
CONVECTION WILL BE SUPPRESSED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT TSRA
BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIRLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO H850 TEMPS
18-20C FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO LEAN TOWARDS
THE MUCH COOLER CLIMATOLOGY (UPPER 70S) FOR THU-SAT...SO HAVE
TRENDED CLOSER TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE MID 80S. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS NOT AS FAVORABLE AS IT WAS WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...SO
DESPITE HIGH SFC DEW POINTS THE OVERALL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR THE AIR COLUMN WILL BE LOWER IN THE 1.5" RANGE. THIS WILL AGAIN
SUPPORT A LOWER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THE TIMING ON THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BRING THE WARM WEATHER TO AN END IS LOOKING MORE LIKE
LATE SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING BETTER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AND TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.
WILL GO WITH VCTS AND TEMPO SHOWERS THROUGH 02Z AND THEN VCTS WITH
PREDOMINANT -SHRA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS WILL DIE DOWN
OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS AROUND 2.5K FT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
30-35KT. AS THE BEST OF THE FORCING MOVES EAST...THE WESTERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK.
MFD/CAK/YNG/ERI WILL HAVE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ADVANCED
TOWARDS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR WINDS AROUND 20KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KT OVERNIGHT. THE SW DIRECTION WILL KEEP THE LARGEST
WAVES OFFSHORE OR IN CANADIAN WATERS. COULD STILL SEE SOME 4 FOOTERS
IN THE NEAR SHORE. ENERGY WILL SLIDE EAST SUNDAY MORNING AND THOUGH
WINDS ARE STILL SW THE SPEEDS WILL DROP OFF NOTABLY. THE NEXT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AT WHICH TIME THE
WINDS COULD ONCE AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK IN AND WINDS/WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/TK/KUBINA
LONG TERM...JAMISON
AVIATION...JAMISON
MARINE...JAMISON





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