Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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994
FXUS61 KCLE 292212
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
612 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be over the area through Tuesday. Low pressure
moving across Ontario will pull a cold front south across the area
on Wednesday. A secondary cold front will arrive on Thursday and
bring below normal temperatures as an upper level trough deepens
over eastern Canada.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
For 630 update...bumped up cloud cover in the west overnight
slightly to account cirrus blow off moving into NW Indiana.


ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
High pressure will be over the area tonight with light winds.
Cumulus clouds are eroding quickly as the dry air arrives and the
only cloud cover expected tonight is a little cirrus arriving in
northwest Ohio late. Dewpoints are dropping from east to west
which will allow for lows to be 5-10 degrees cooler than last
night. Lows will range from the mid 50s inland to low 60s near
Lake Erie.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will remain in control on Tuesday with dry
conditions. Lots of sun will allow temperatures to top out a few
degrees warmer than today in the mid to locally upper 80s, despite
the cooler start.

A pattern change will get underway by mid-week as a series of cold
fronts move through the area. A trough located west of Hudson Bay
will deepen over eastern Canada on Wednesday. The associated surface
low will slide southeast across Ontario early Wednesday with a back
door cold front settling south across the forecast area during the
day. Enough moisture is expected to arrive ahead of the trough
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop along the
front. A second piece of shortwave energy will drop into the back
side of the trough on Wednesday night pushing a secondary push of
cold air south across the area. 850mb temperatures are forecast to
drop to 8-10C over the area behind the front on Thursday. This
should be sufficient for some lake effect clouds and possibly even
a few showers to develop off Lake Erie. Chances of showers will
depend on moisture depth which will drop off quickly on Thursday
so will just continue with a slight chance OF showers in the
forecast. Highs on Thursday will top out in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure should dominate the area Fri thru Mon. Think
conditions will stay dry allowing the drought to worsen. Temps
will initially be below normal but gradually warm to be above
normal by Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Monday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR should prevail through Tuesday. There could be some patchy end
of the night fog around fdy...mfd and tol. The NE winds...enhanced
by a lake breeze will diminish with sunset then tend to gradually
veer around to the ESE the rest of the night.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible with thunderstorms along a cold front
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The NE winds of 10 to 15 knots providing 1 to 3 foot wave will
diminish early tonight with a land breeze setting up by late tonight.
A cold front will drop se across the lake Wed morning shifting winds
to the nw to north and increasing to 10 to 20 knots. Marginal sca
waves may develop so have increased waves for this to 20 to 4 feet.
Winds work around to the ne for Fri while diminishing some which
continue into Sat.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...DJB/KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Adams



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