Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 300116
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
916 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016
A stationary front will remain across northern Ohio and western
Pennsylvania through Sunday morning. Weak waves of low pressure
will ride along the front. High pressure will build southeast
across the area Sunday night. The high will move southeast by mid
week allowing for a return back to warmer temperatures.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers have tapered off considerably. However...with the showers
across Western Ohio have bumped up pops overnight in the west to
Majority of the thunderstorms are diurnally driven/enhanced and
expect us to be at the peak of areal coverage through the late
afternoon/early evening hours. Steering flow is weak and for the
most part storms are affecting their own movement. Heavy rainfall
is the primary threat...with an inch or two very likely for those
lucky/unlucky enough to be targeted by a storm. Traditional severe
storms not expected (high wind,large hail) with little support for
that. There is a bit of jet energy overhead tonight and do not
think storm chances will diminish to zero. Will continue the
scattered shower/thunderstorm mention through the night. Somewhat
milder tonight and muggy...mid/upper 60s for lows.
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
This whole system is slow to shift out of here and in fact have
drawn out the precip chances into Monday across the eastern half
of the area. Local trough across the Great Lakes trapped south
of a southern Canadian ridge. There is nothing upstream to kick it
out. We should have decent coverage of storms on Saturday too
especially north and east...again diurnally enhanced. Sunday/Monday
the upper trough slowly lifts out and the surface stationary front
washes out in place. High pressure attempts to build in from the
western lakes to northwest Ohio. But with a bit of cyclonic flow
lingering across eastern Ohio/nw PA had to pull 20 percent precip
chances into Monday. Temperatures through the entire period will
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Extended forecast will be dominated by another thermal ridge
building in from the west. The models are in fairly good agreement
with the strength of the ridge and the amount of heat that will nose
into the region. The warm air advection will kick in Tuesday which
will likely keep convective out of the area through Thursday as the
air mass may get capped off under the building ridge. The ridge
breaks down by next Friday with a short wave passing by to the north
Friday into Friday Night. This will likely bring a front into the
area with our best chance for convective activity.
.AVIATION /00Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
With low pressure in the vicinity and a very moist airmass in
place showers and thunderstorms have been popping up and
diminishing through the afternoon and into the early evening.
Expecting this to continue through the evening before diminishing
overnight. Still...would not rule out a shower or thunderstorm at
any time. Tough to include mention in most TAFS given uncertainty
of where they will be at any one time. For now included a tempo
group for thunder at KFDY and a tempo group to ifr showers at
KCAK during the evening. Otherwise mentioned as VCSH/VCTS where
appropriate. Towards dawn brought restrictions due to fog/stratus
most places. For Saturday brought back VCTS at 18z.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in sct thunderstorms Saturday night and
Sunday. Areas of morning fog possible each morning.
A diffuse cold front lingers just south of the lake with a series of
weak lows moving across it tonight into Saturday Night. Some models
hint at a slight increase in the northeast winds tonight to around
15kt as the first low tightens the pressure gradient slightly. Don`t
feel this would last long enough to have a notable impact on the
wave heights as the gradient relaxes a few hours later. The same is
possible again Saturday afternoon with the second low. Overall
looking at an east/northeast wind around 10knots over the next
24hrs. High pressure will be slow to move in on Monday, but become
entrenched by Tuesday as an upper level ridge builds in.