Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 041429
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
929 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY BY FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LAKES
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE OUT FOR MINOR CHANGES. HAVE UPDATED TEMPS TO REFLECT
CURRENT READINGS. STILL EXPECT TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 20S THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO REMOVED ALL MENTION OF PRECIP FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR. STILL EXPECTING A WAVE OF LIGHT
SNOW MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA TOWARD EVENING. THIS PRECIP WILL
HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING NORTH OF U.S. 30.

PREVIOUS...THE PUSH OF THE NEXT BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE AREA WILL BE
SLOWED TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH TAKES ITS TIME DIGGING ACROSS MN.
WITH THE UPPER AND MID FLOW FROM THE SW...OVERRUNNING WILL TAKE
PLACE TODAY SO THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SKIMMING THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CWA WILL LIFT BACK NORTH SOME LATER TODAY.

TEMPS ALOFT COOL IN THE AFTERNOON SO ANY RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD CHANGE
TO SNOW. SURFACE TEMPS WILL PROBABLY HOLD NEARLY STEADY INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO DROP. BY NIGHTFALL...TEMPS SHOULD
MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S. HOPEFULLY...TEMPS WHERE THE
RAIN/DRIZZLE OCCURS THIS MORNING WILL BE ABLE TO STAY JUST ABOVE 32
TO PREVENT THE THREAT FOR FREEZING ISSUES.

SNOWFALL BY NIGHTFALL IS ONLY EXPECTED TO RUN AN INCH OR LESS AND
MAINLY FOR THE SOUTH AND SE THIRD OF THE CWA...GENERALLY STAYING
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FDY TO GKJ.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE OVERRUNNING SNOW SHOULD TEND TO STAY SSE OF A LINE FROM FDY TO
NEAR ERI THRU 06Z THEN START TO SLOWLY RECEDE SE THE LATTER PART OF
THE NIGHT AND SHOULD BE EXITING THE FAR SE BY MIDDAY THU.
ACCUMULATION FROM THE OVERRUNNING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MAINLY RUN AN
ADDITIONAL INCH AND A HALF OR LESS TONIGHT.

THE AXIS OF THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE AREA ON THU AND HELP
FROM LAKE MOISTURE MAY HELP TO INDUCE SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR
LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT AND THU BUT ACCUMULATION FROM THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BY
DAYBREAK THU THEN ONLY RISE INTO THE TEENS ON THU AS THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION. THE COLDEST LOWS ARE LIKELY THU
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES HELPING TO DECREASE THE CLOUDS AND
LIGHTEN THE WINDS. ONCE AGAIN...THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE LOWS A LITTLE BELOW ZERO.

THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO THE SE OF THE
AREA BY LATE FRI. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO BACK MORE TO THE SOUTH
AND WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...TEMPS FRI WILL MODERATE
SOME...GETTING BACK INTO THE LOWS 20S ON AVERAGE.

THE MODELS SHOW A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS DROPPING SE NEAR THE
AREA FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT WITH SOME DIFFERENCE AMONG THE MODELS.
WILL STAY WITH ONGOING FORECAST AND HOLD BACK THREAT FOR SNOW UNTIL
SAT AND SAT NIGHT WHEN A WEAKENING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE CROSSING
THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION FRI NIGHT WILL BE TO PUT A SMALL CHANCE IN
THE NE. HIGHS ON SAT ARE EXPECTED TO ROCKET ALL THE WAY INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30S WHICH WILL GET US WITHIN 10 DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THAT WILL LAST THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME DID NOT GO REAL WARM WITH THE
READINGS BUT WE COULD GET INTO THE 50S BY MID WEEK. NORMAL HIGHS ARE
IN THE LOWER 40S.

NO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. PLENTY OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. A WEAK FRONT WILL TRY TO MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS SO WEAK AND WITH THE
RIDGING STRONG WILL JUST HAVE 20% POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
OTHERWISE DRY.

THE WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE SNOW MELT AND THAT WILL CAUSE
SOME MOVEMENT IN THE FROZEN RIVER AND STREAMS. WILL BE MONITORING
THE ICE JAM POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH IT ALSO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH.
A LOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT LATER TODAY AND THAT WILL SEND
SOME MOISTURE AND SNOW BACK NORTH. IT SHOULD NOT GET TOO FAR
NORTH. THE TAF SITES MFD CAK AND YNG ARE THE ONLY ONES THAT MAY
GET SOME SNOW OUT OF IT. THEY ARE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE...SO ONLY
FORECASTED A PROB30 FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE
MVFR CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR AT 850 MB WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND
ESPECIALLY IN THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE EVEN THOUGH THE AIRMASS IS
DRYING OUT.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS LINGERING THURSDAY AND THEN
NON VFR CEILINGS RETURNING SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT EXPECTING GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES IN WARM ADVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...HOWEVER...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE SURFACE. ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM AIR WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL
OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AGAIN NOT EXPECTING SUSTAINED GALE FORCE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE.

IN THE MEANTIME THE GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE TODAY IN COLD
ADVECTION. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AND
THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA






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