Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 160244
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
944 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move east across the area late this evening
into early tonight followed by a trough Thursday. High pressure
will be overhead Thursday night and Friday. Low pressure will
move out of the central Plains and reach Michigan on Saturday
morning. This will take a strong cold front across the area
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Update...Previous forecast remains on track. An area of low
clouds and drizzle is moving east across Ohio just ahead of the
cold front. As the front passes expect the precipitation to come
to an end most locations. One exception is across northeast Ohio
into northwest Pennsylvania where some lake-enhanced
precipitation will likely continue into tomorrow as winds turn
around to the west and eventually northwest.

Previous discussion...
Area of showers will continue to march eastward across Ohio and
into nw PA through the remainder of the afternoon and into this
evening. Scattered showers/less coverage will likely follow in
the wake of the steadier rain for several hours until the cold
front clears. A secondary front comes across toward morning and
will have to maintain precip chances across northeast OH/nw PA
into Thursday morning for this. Precip type will be all rain
until we get closer to morning when it becomes a little less
clear. As air cold enough to support snow arrives early Thursday
morning, we begin to loose the deeper moisture. So, have a
mention of rain/snow/drizzle through Thursday morning. Possibly
some of the higher elevations may be able to get a wet half inch
of snow tomorrow. The best depth of moisture will be far east
with the trough.

Temperatures will remain nearly steady through this evening as
we await the passage of the cold front closer to midnight. Have
lowered highs for Thursday and believe upper 30s will be more
the flavor of the day than lower 40s. In fact across the east
temperatures may fall a few degrees throughout the day. It will
be breezy through the night and Thursday.

High pressure then builds across the area Thursday night. Will
end precip chances but likely hang on to a substantial amount of
cloud cover as moisture gets trapped under the inversion. With
the cloud cover have raised expected lows a degree or two.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Rapid change is expected during this period with a quick warm up
Friday and Friday night followed by a sharp cool down when a strong
cold front sweeps across the region late Saturday.

Friday will be milder as southerly flow increases across the region.
Cloudiness will increase in the afternoon but it should remain dry.
The models are rather consistent in bringing a moderate amount of
rain across northern Ohio and nw PA Friday night and early Saturday.
QPF could be 0.50 to 1.0 inch. There is some uncertainly with the
timing of the cold frontal passage Saturday between the faster GFS
and the slower ECMWF. For now will use a blended solution between
the two models.  In any case, it will mild and windy ahead of the
front with abrupt cooling after frontal passage. Liquid
precipitation will change over to snow showers around or shortly
after midnight. Some accumulation (1-3" possible) is expected over
extreme northeast Ohio (inland Ashtabula County) and inland nw PA.
The synoptic setup is not optimal for heavy lake effect snow as the
upper trough is progressing with one short wave quickly crossing the
region Sunday morning. The low level inversion is around 6000-8000
feet for a while Sunday morning near ERI but with a northwest fetch
some moderate multi-band snow can be expected and not a single
intense primary snow band. Conditions will improve Sunday evening as
the inversion drops below 5000 feet.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Upper level trough will be east of the area by Sunday night with the
coldest air spilling across Lake Erie. Lake effect snow will be
ongoing across NW Oh/NW PA. It does appear that there will be
accumulations. The uncertainty from the extended models is the
duration of the lake effect event. The GFS keeps the snow going much
well into Monday afternoon. However the ECMWF brings high pressure
quickly into the area ending the snow early Monday morning. We will
work on these details over the next couple days.

High pressure takes control of the region at some point on Monday
with dry air expected into Tuesday. There is an upper level trough
that could influence NE OH/NW PA Tuesday night into Wednesday but we
have plenty of time to so how that evolves.

Temperatures will be below seasonal averages through the long term.
Lows generally in the 20s to near 30. Highs 40 to 45.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
A steadily lowering ceiling will continue to work its way east
across the terminals this evening. Everywhere will have a
period of IFR ceilings for several hours, lifting to MVFR from
west to east as the night progresses. There could be a few
pockets of VFR at KTOL and KFDY for a couple hours before
widespread MVFR conditions return. Winds will turn to the west
behind the passage of a cold front, with gusts from 20 to 30 kts
continuing through the night and much of the day tomorrow.
Rain/snow showers then possible across northeast OH/nw PA
tomorrow as a secondary trough swings across the eastern Great
Lakes. Snow should be confined to mostly the higher elevations.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR persists across northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania into Thursday night. Non-VFR returns area wide by
Saturday afternoon and in the snowbelt Saturday night through
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Current forecast is on track with increasing south winds on Lake
Erie ahead of an approaching cold front that will cross the lake
overnight. Winds will veer to the southwest and then to the west
after midnight. A small craft advisory is in effect over the lake
which will continue through Thursday. Northwest winds will be near
30 knots Thursday morning and gradually diminish toward evening
especially in the west. High pressure will briefly build over and
east of the lake Thursday night and Friday.

Another strong cold front with an attendant low pressure area will
approach the lake Friday night and early Saturday. The cold front
will sweep across the lake Saturday with northwest gales possible
late Saturday and Saturday night as much colder air is swept over
the lake. The pressure gradient will begin to relax Sunday and
especially Monday as high pressure builds eastward across the Ohio
Valley.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Friday for LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Thursday for LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Mottice/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...LaPlante
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Mottice
MARINE...LaPlante



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