Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 290552
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
152 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK TONIGHT.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
BECOME A FOCUS ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY PASSES OVERHEAD.
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY THEN PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BACK EDGE OF STRATOCU HAS
NOW MADE ITS WAY INTO NW PA. LAST FEW SHRA APPEAR TO JUST BE IN
EASTERN ERIE CO PA. WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP DOWN POPS AND CLOUDS IN NW
PA THRU MIDNIGHT BUT WILL KEEP LINGERING SLIGHT CHC FOR THE SNOWBELT
LATER TONIGHT AS HRRR AND RAP INDICATE SOME LIGHT SHRA DEVELOPING SE
INTO THE AREA.

HIGHER CLOUDS FROM TOMORROW`S SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO
THE WEST. CURRENT SHRA OVER INDIANA SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
THE WEST BUT ANOTHER PUSH IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE NIGHT. A FEW SHRA
COULD REACH THE EXTREME WESTERN FRINGE AROUND DAYBREAK SO WILL KEEP
A SMALL CHC POP THERE FOR THE LAST HOUR OF THE NIGHT.

MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD DIP INTO THE 50S WITH THE LOWEST TEMPERATURES
OVER THE INLAND PART OF THE EASTERN SNOWBELT WHERE LOWER 50S SHOULD
BE COMMON. THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING SOUTH WINDS IN THE
WEST WILL PROBABLY HOLD LOWS IN A 58 TO 60 RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON ITS EXACT TRACK. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS WILL MOVE TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL
ATTEMPT TO MOVE INTO NW OHIO NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IS MOVES INTO THAT AREA. WE DID
CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH FOR NEW FLOODING BUT SINCE WE THINK THE QPF
SHOULD BE UNDER HALF AN INCH WE HELD OFF FOR NOW. IF THIS CONVECTION
CHARGES TOWARD THE AREA STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED THEN THE FLOOD
THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE REEVALUATED.

AS THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES MONDAY EVENING IT WILL PUSH A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL NEAR
CENTRAL OHIO BUT EVEN THAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT. THIS BOUNDARY
AND A COUPLE PIECES OF JET ENERGY WILL THEN BE THE MAIN PLAYERS FR
THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN LOOK
TO BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES BUT COULD VARY SLIGHTLY DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WISH THE HOLIDAY FORECAST WAS CUT AND DRY...BUT WITH THE EASTERN
U.S. MAINTAINING A BROAD TROUGH...WILL STILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH
UNSETTLED WEATHER. HAVE SIDED TOWARD AN ENSEMBLE SOLUTION TO TRY AND
PINPOINT THE BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE FOR NOW HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MAY BE WORKING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
UNSURE WHETHER THE FRONT CLEARS HERE SO LINGERED SOME PRECIP CHANCES
INTO SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THROUGH ENS MEAN HAS A RIDGE BEGINNING TO
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT STORM SYSTEM FAST APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. EXPECTING RAIN
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AND SHOULD ARRIVE IN
TOLEDO AND FINDLAY LATER THIS MORNING. ERIE MAY WIN OUT TODAY AND
STAY DRY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND THEN RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THAT
AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECTING CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO FALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL AS RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA. IFR TO
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
MORE MORE THAN 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. AREAS OF NON
VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE HAD TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO THE EVENING FOR
EAST OF THE ISLANDS. BUOY OFF OF CLEVELAND AND REPORTS OFF OF ERIE
PA STILL INDICATE 4 TO 5 FOOTERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ACROSS THE
LAKE TONIGHT SO WIND/WAVES WILL SETTLE. NEXT SYSTEMS TRACK OF THE
LOW FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE EXACT
DIRECTION AND SPEED OF THE WIND ON THE LAKE. HAVE TAKEN THE LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN AND INTO ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT PRODUCING A
STIFF ESE FLOW FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY. THERE ARE SOME SOLUTIONS THAT TAKE IT
MORE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE LAKE AND THEREFORE WOULD YIELD
DIFFERENT WIND/WAVES ON THE LAKE. GRADIENT BECOMES MUCH WEAKER FOR
MID WEEK AND WINDS WILL BE OF NO ISSUE. HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT
CLEANLY MAKE IT TO THE LAKE UNTIL MAYBE THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE HEADED OUR WAY FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...OUDEMAN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.