Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 300540
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
140 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will move across the area tonight. High pressure
will build in behind it for Memorial Day and slowly drift east
across the Great Lakes Region through Wednesday. Low pressure will
move across the Upper Lakes into Canada on Thursday with a trailing
cold front moving east across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Had one cluster of thunderstorms go severe early this evening as
they interacted with some decent instability. The atmosphere has
stabilized a bit now as the cold front moves eastward through the
County Warning Area (CWA). The front as of 00Z was located just to
the west of the line of showers/thunderstorms. The coverage along
the front will be enough to go with a scattered to likely pops
until it gets east of a line from Lake County to Holmes county.

It will be cooler in the wake of the front tonight as humidity
levels decrease. Lows will dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s.
maybe slightly warmer in the larger cities.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Dewpoints will drop back into the upper 50s on Memorial Day
behind the front and combine with temperatures in the lower
80s(70s in PA) to bring more comfortable conditions with lower
heat index values. Shallow cu field will develop but mid levels
will be very dry and cu should tend to mix out through the
afternoon. High pressure will be overhead through the first half
of the week and lows will generally be in the upper 50s except
near 60 in the vicinity of Lake Erie. Southerly return flow starts
to develop on Wednesday ahead of the next system with slightly
warmer highs and lows.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long range models have another broad upper level trough swinging
through the eastern United States by the middle of the week carrying
into the weekend. Unfortunately, the upper level ridge over the
western half of the United States really amplifies resulting in
deepening of the eastern United States trough axis.  This in turn
does not do well for warmer temperatures.

Low pressure is progged to move east across the northern Great Lakes
region Thursday forcing a cold front to sweep east across the area.
The cold front will bring with it showers and thunderstorms with the
best chance being Thursday into Thursday night.  Drier air following
the front may scoot into the forecast area sooner than Thursday
night bringing an end to the precipitation threat. But will keep a
chance in the east if the front slows in forward motion.

Extensive high pressure will slide southeast into the mid
Mississippi valley region by Friday morning ushering in the drier
and cooler air mass.  A vigorous positive vorticity maximum will
slide southeast across the area with associated moisture and
therefore will bring another round of precipitation to the area for
Sunday.  Question is how extensive will the convection be with the
upper level feature.

As mentioned earlier, the downside to the upper level trough will be
the cold air advection that will take place across the region. We
will be looking at the possibility for much cooler temperatures by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
The cold front will cross northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania early this morning. Doubtful that there will be any
additional showers or storms. MVFR cumulus likely to develop by
late morning. The cloud deck should lift to VFR this afternoon.
Clouds should dissipate across northwest Ohio and near the Lake
Erie lakeshore as the mixing increases this afternoon and ceilings
should dissipate elsewhere by early evening.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Lake is expected to be mostly quiet for the first half of the week
this week with generally light and variable winds. A northeast flow
at 10 to 15 knots Tuesday night may be just enough for a small craft
advisory. So, will have to monitor this situation over the next
couple days. Winds then calm down again Wednesday and go light and
variable through the rest of the week. Any headlines will be short
lived mid week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Mullen
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Lombardy



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