Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 172023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
323 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level shortwave will brush the Great Lakes
region bringing the possibility of snow showers to generally NW
PA. Otherwise...high pressure will build over the region
bringing a warming trend into the weekend. Rain returns to the
area this weekend ahead of a storm storm system moving east
across the Plains.


Scattered snow showers added to the forecast generally from and
east of Mount Vernon northeast to Ashtabula. The short term
models are handling this poorly. The showers should generally
dissipate after the sun goes down with the lack of daytime
heating adding to the convective nature of these light snow
showers. No accumulation is expected.

Otherwise...Upper level high pressure from the Plains is
expected to build east across the area over the next 24 to at
least 36 hours resulting in a warming trend across the region.
Temperatures tomorrow are expected to be around 10 degrees
warmer compared to this afternoon...but still between 3 and 5
degrees below normal.

Snow showers are forecast to develop Thursday evening and
continue into at least Friday morning and remain confined to
Erie county PA.


A brief pattern change is taking shape across the lower 48 but
albeit brief.  Upper level flow appears to be shaping up for a more
zonal flow during the weekend.  Another upper level trough will dive
into the western United States by Sunday and will help to build a
ridge over the eastern United States into early next week.  So, this
means a return to milder temperatures and a bit of a thaw in late

The dominating weather feature will be a large area of high pressure
that will settle into the southeastern United States by Thursday and
move slowly off the east coast over the weekend.  The surface high
will bring a return south to southwest flow of air into the local
area.  This will result in the warm air advection expected to take
place over the weekend.  850 mb temperatures warm from 4 degrees c
to 6 degrees c by Saturday and possibly as high as plus 8 degrees c
by Sunday night.  The warmer air will aid in snowmelt once again and
hopefully slow enough to avoid issues with the local rivers.

The deep trough aloft entering the west coast will move quickly east
and cause a panhandle low pressure at the surface to develop.  The
low is expected to track northeast into the western Great Lakes
keeping the forecast in the warm sector Sunday.

The warm front will develop north of the forecast area and become
nearly stationary Saturday night.  Moisture will begin to stream
east along the frontal boundary and will set the stage for some
light rain to move into the area Saturday night into Sunday. Rain
could possibly be mixed with snow along the northern tier Saturday


The long term begins Sunday night with models in general agreement
showing a surface low in the central plains however there are
differences in position and system speed that will eventually impact
timing in the area. In general the GFS is the faster model vs the
ECMWF with the low movement. However the frontal timing as slowed on
both models vs earlier runs with passage now Monday late
afternoon/evening vs mid day. This seems reasonable given how
wrapped up the system is. For Sunday night much of the isentropic
lift appears northeast of the region but the warm front may still be
lodged in northeast OH. Will continue with low chance pops as the
GFS moistens the region fairly well through the overnight. Monday
still need likely pops with prefrontal rain moves through.  Will
continue with likely pops Monday evening tapering to a chance east
after midnight. Tuesday into Wednesday the airmass dries out as high
pressure builds in. Will still continue with chance pops Tuesday
tapering to chance pops just northeast half Tuesday night. Wednesday
will keep dry for now other than a slight chance northeast.  Temps
above normal Monday and near normal Tuesday and Wednesday.


.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
Patchy MVFR cigs and vis in scattered snow showers east of KCAK
through generally 21z...possibly 00z. Forecast confidence medium
to low. Otherwise...VFR conditions expected at the terminals
this evening through much of Thursday. Breezy southwest winds
expected to develop at KERI Thursday morning with gusts around
20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday.


Southwest flow will persist across the lake over the next 5 days
with some minor changes in wind speed.  No real strong winds
expected on the lake through this forecast period.  Some movement of
the ice from the western end of the lake will take place into the
open waters causing some ridging and rafting of the ice to take
place. Ice fishing enthusiasts should be alert over the next 5 days
for ice floes breaking off and drifting away from shore.




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