Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 190215
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
915 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cool front will push south across the local area tonight.
High pressure will build back over the region Sunday and Monday then
a cold front will cross the region on Tuesday. Another cold front
will sag south near Lake Erie early Thursday before pushing north as
a warm front Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Diminished winds and mostly clear skies for much of the cwa have
allowed temps to fall 10 to 15 degrees in many places already this
evening after record highs today. Clouds from southern system have
pushed about as far into the cwa as possible except maybe around
mahoning co where some increase is still expected. Clouds with the
weak cold front non-existent so have lowered cloud amounts some for
rest of the night that were associated with the cold front.

Even though winds have diminished, they won`t go calm so just enough
mixing will continue to keep temps from dropping enough to reach
dewpoints so have tweaked up lows a degree or two in some spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Unfortunately a light northwest breeze behind the weak cool
front...which is a flow off of a cold lake...will keep
temperatures in check Sunday across northeast OH/nw PA. Tended
to go toward the cooler guidance as winds will already be
westerly Sunday morning across Ashtabula and Erie PA. Will have
a gradient in temperature from upper 40s lakeshore to near 60
inland.

The surface high will be across eastern Ohio Monday morning and
as it shifts east winds will come around to the south
again...except near the lakeshore which will only be able to
come around to the east-northeast. Temps will still be running
well above normal with inland locations again nearing/exceeding
60.

The next real weather maker arrives Tuesday. While there is some
timing differences amongst the models...vast majority place
showers across the area during the day on Tuesday. Have a
broader area of likely precip chances. Overall nature will
likely be scattered/broken area of showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The ridge aloft will hold firm through the end of the work
week. Any cooler, pacific air from the Tuesday cool front will
give way to warming again on Wednesday as the deep southwest flow
continues. Highs will be in the 60s again except for perhaps some
50s across extreme northeast OH and northwest PA.

Model differences begin to show up by Thursday. The ECMWF has a
relatively strong surface low rippling along a cold front crossing
the northern Great Lakes while the GFS has no low to speak of.
The Canadian model also has the low. This impacts the strength of
the southwest wind on Lake Erie on Thursday and ultimately may push
the back door front farther south than the GFS. The front may drop
across Lake Erie late Thursday and perhaps even sneak into the
forecast area. Given the lack of confidence this far out, will use a
blend of the models at this time. The flow will come back around
from the south on Friday as a panhandle hook begins to track toward
the western Great Lakes. We could squeeze out some showers Thursday
afternoon into Friday given the fast flow aloft and increasing
frontogenesis but will not go as high a pop as some of the guidance
given the ridging aloft.

The panhandle hook looks as if it will be a big storm and
ultimately will send a strong cold front across the area, but not
until Friday night. Friday should turn out to be another warm
day and could be near record highs once again, well in the 60s.

Temperatures will barely drop back to normal behind the cold
front on Saturday. Not sure how many lingering showers there could
be. It will be cold enough aloft that some wet flakes are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions are on track to continue through much of the TAF
period as the area remains between a low pressure systems with
one over Canada and one further south in the Gulf Coast states.
Some scattered to broken cirrus will continue through the
overnight between the two systems with clear skies possible late
tonight at the western sites. Rain and increased moisture to
the south along the Ohio River will try to surge northward and
while rain is not expected at any TAF sites, some lower
stratocumulus may try to creep into KCAK and KYNG after
midnight tonight. Any lower clouds would also prohibit fog
development tonight as well. VFR conditions will continue into
Sunday and winds will become more westerly throughout the day. A
lake breeze is expected to develop Sunday afternoon bringing a
wind shift to first at KERI and later in the day at KCLE.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR may develop Tuesday and continue into Tuesday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Brisk southwest breezes on Lake Erie will taper off quickly this
evening as the gradient and mixing weakens. Winds will veer to west
northwest on Sunday behind a weak cool front. Winds will continue to
veer north to northeast late Sunday and Sunday night and east by
Monday. Wind speeds should remain light to moderate. The next weak
cool front is expected on Tuesday. Wind will increase from the
south to southwest ahead of the front and remain rather brisk from
the west behind the front. Winds and waves will likely remain just
below small craft advisory criteria mid week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
High Temperature Records for 2/18:

Akron-Canton: Old Record: 60 (1981)  New Record: 68 (2017)
Cleveland:    Old Record: 62 (1981)  New Record: 69 (2017)
Erie PA:      Old Record: 61 (1981)  New Record: 68 (2017)
Mansfield:    Old Record: 60 (1961)  New Record: 67 (2017)
Toledo:       Old Record: 59 (1961)  New Record: 67 (2017)
Youngstown:   Old Record: 59 (2011)  New Record: 66 (2017)

&&


.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Oudeman
NEAR TERM...Adams/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Oudeman
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Kosarik
CLIMATE...Sefcovic/Willard


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