Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 080444
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1144 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE
ERIE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING THEN SHIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND WHILE
LEAVING A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES UNTIL THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY SPREAD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME WEAK RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT NOT SEEING ANYTHING IN
THE SURFACE OBS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME
LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT WITH QPF AMOUNTS NO MORE THAN A HUNDREDTH
OR TWO. HAVE LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES MOST AREAS TO MATCH UP BETTER
WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION BY MORNING. LOW TEMPS WILL GET CLOSE TO FREEZING MOST
AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER AND SURFACE
LOW WILL SLOWLY INCH EAST ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THRU WED MORNING.
THIS WILL MEAN WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR INTO WED THEN A
TRANSITION TO MAINLY JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS BY WED NIGHT.
TEMPS ON MON WILL STILL BE MARGINAL FOR RAIN OR SNOW BUT BY MON
NIGHT ENOUGH OF THE COLDER AIR AT ALL LEVELS SHOULD HAVE ARRIVED FOR
JUST SNOW FROM THIS POINT ON THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SINCE THE PRECIP WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
STAY LIGHT WITH UP TO AN INCH OR AN INCH AND A HALF MON NIGHT AND
TUE...MAYBE UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE EAST TUE NIGHT. AS SOME LAKE
EFFECT STARTS TO HELP OUT THERE COULD BE SOME SPOTS AROUND NW PA ON
WED THAT SEE 3 INCHES. WED NIGHT COULD SEE SOME MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IN THE SNOWBELT AS LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS BECOME VERY
FAVORABLE...MAYBE 3 TO LOCALLY 5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN HIGHER
TERRAIN.

TEMPS WILL PROGRESSIVELY FALL EACH DAY MON THRU WED WITH HIGHS ON
WED ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AND LOWS WED NIGHT FROM THE MID TEENS
ERI LAKESHORE TO HIGH END SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONSISTENT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM SHOWING A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BEING CARVED OUT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD CENTERED MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST.  SO FOR THE LONG TERM AM EXPECTING A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ACROSS THE SNOWBELT AND TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR THE OHIO/INDIANA BORDER WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BE NEAR CLE BY DAYBREAK. LIMITED MOISTURE AT
THIS POINT SO LITTLE OF WHAT IS SHOWING ON THE RADAR ACTUALLY
HITTING THE GROUND. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT I
DOUBT LITTLE ELSE. ALL 3 MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT SO WILL SEE SOME PRECIP DEVELOP NEAR FRONT.
PRECIP SHOULD START AS RAIN THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO SNOW. FRONT
WONT REACH EXTREME NE OH/NW PA UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EAST TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN SNOW AS A SERIES OF
CLIPPERS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW GALE FORCE THROUGH
THURSDAY SO NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.  IN GENERAL EXPECT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
INCREASING WAVES ON THE SOUTH HALF OF THE LAKE TO 4 TO 6 FEET.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK


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