Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 212235
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
635 PM EDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front just south of the area will move north as a
warm front on Thursday. Meanwhile, low pressure over the western
lakes will move northeast into Canada and extend a cold front
across the Great Lakes for Friday. A trough of low pressure will
then remain over the area through much of the weekend as high
pressure attempts to build in from the west. This high will
eventually reach the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Update for tonight...Adjusted hourly temps/dewpoints. No other
changes made.

Original...A weakening front will continue to sink south this
afternoon, eventually stalling just south of the area. This will
allow for the area to remain dry for the rest of today and for
the first hours of Thursday. Convection out west over Illinois
and Iowa will continue to trek eastward along this front as the
front lifts north for Thursday. Initial precipitation chances
for Thursday will be best out west and along the front and the
lakeshore areas as this disturbance moves along the front.
Temperatures will be a bit tough as it will all depend on the
location and timing of the front and remnant convection from the
west. Areas in NW PA and NE OH will likely remain mostly clear
for much of the overnight and north of the front which should
allow for the temperatures to fall quite a bit, perhaps to near
the 50 degree mark. However, areas further south and west will
likely have cloud cover issues and will be the first to be south
of the front, so lows may only drop to the low to mid 60s
there.

The middle part of Thursday then looks dry as the area will be
in the warm sector and under the influence of strong warm air
advection. With Tropical Storm Cindy/Remnants of Cindy to the
southwest over the Mississippi River Valley and a low to the
northwest over the western Great Lakes, a strong pressure
gradient will set up over the area allowing for winds to
increase out of the southwest bring warm and moist tropical air
for Thursday afternoon and evening. This will prime the area
ahead of a cold front allowing for convection to develop
Thursday night into Friday. Severe weather will be possible
Thursday night into Friday with the tropical airmass but an
unfavorable time of day may allow for the best set up to be in
areas further to the west.

Judging by how well temperatures are cranking up in southern
Indiana and Ohio today into the upper 80s/lower 90s, once the
front passes to the north on Thursday, upper 80s/lower 90s
should be expected for Thursday for highs. This will probably be
our last well above average day for a bit. Given the warm highs
for Thursday, overnight lows into Friday will be warm as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be approaching the region on Friday with some
tropical moisture attempting to stream northward. Expect a period of
rainfall through a decent portion of the day with locally heavy
rainfall possible. Chances for severe storms will all hinge on if we
get any significant heating between the showers/thunderstorms.
Weak ridging will attempt to move into the region on Saturday as an
upper level trough approaches. Currently it appears we will be dry
enough to avoid showers but we will need to monitor this over the
next couple days.

Friday will see highs near to slightly above seasonal levels. Cooler
on Saturday highs dipping back into the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A series of weak low pressure troughs will move through the
forecast area during the extended period. The first one will
impact the region Sunday evening and overnight into Monday
morning. This weak system has limited moisture but a few showers
late Sunday and Sunday night are possible. I am not optimistic
on widespread coverage but I will leave a slight chance per the
current forecast. A more vigorous short wave and surface trough
move into the Great Lakes region on Monday and remain in the
forecast area Monday Night and early Tuesday. This system is
deeper than the previous short wave and should produce larger
shower coverage on Monday and Monday night. A few showers will
likely linger in the eastern sections of the forecast area
Tuesday morning. High pressure will begin to build into the
region on Tuesday Night and remain through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
A weak front remains over the area somewhere in a KMNN to KAKR
to KGKJ line with thicker cumulus and isolated showers to the
south and dissipating cumulus or clear skies to the north. The
trend for this afternoon will be for cloud cover to both lift
and dissipate as the front sinks southeast. For the rest of
today and through the overnight, the main concern will be the
winds as winds behind the front will be from the north but this
front will push back north overnight and winds will flip around
back to the south.

This front lifting back north as a warm front will also be a
focus for rain to develop tomorrow morning. Have kept the VCSH
mention at KTOL and KCLE but added KERI and KYNG as the axis of
precipitation looks to curl from the lakeshore areas into NE OH
and NW PA tomorrow morning.

OUTLOOK...Low chance of non-VFR Thur thru Sun in shra/tsra
except good chance Fri into Fri night with passage of a cold
front.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will be shifting east of the lake tonight as a warm
front lifts northward. Southwesterly winds will increase Thursday
afternoon but the strongest winds will be in the wake of the cold
front friday into Friday night. A small craft advisory may be needed
for the east half of the lake. As an upper level trough remains over
the region we will see a reinforcing surge of cooler air arrive on
Saturday. This may end up keeping waves up into Saturday afternoon.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...TK/Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Garnet
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Mullen



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