Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 200733
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
333 AM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain anchored over the Upper Ohio Valley
through the weekend. A cold front will cross the local area
early Monday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Large area of high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley/Lower
Great Lakes will remain over the forecast area through the weekend.
Upper level ridge will continue to build through the day.   Only
weather to contend with is cirrus moving up from the Mid Mississippi
Valley.  For highs just went a degree or two above ydy.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Well above normal temps continue as upper level ridge continues to
build.   Temps should warm into the mid 70s...which is 10 to 15
degrees above normal for this time of year.   Filtered sunshine with
cirrus shield over the forecast area.

The short term begins Saturday night with models showing surface
high pressure near the mid atlantic coast.  The region will remain
under the influence of the high although to our west a cold front
will extend from Minnesota to Oklahoma with moisture pooling in the
central plains in southerly flow out of the Gulf coast region.
Sunday morning the models remain in good agreement with the front
from Wisconsin to Illinois to ern MO. From Sunday into Monday
morning models show a short wave moving southeast out of the central
Rockies and eventually forming a closed low in the AR/LA area. This
in turn develops a surface low in the region effectively slowing the
eastward progression of the front. This surface low will eventually
move northeast through or east of the OH VLY Monday night or Tuesday
spreading rain across the region however by this point model
differences become more significant. For now will continue with
general trend of chance pops west half late Sunday night and likely
to categorical pops Monday and Monday night.  Monday night into
Tuesday a deep upper trough/low moves into the Great Lakes dropping
850mb temps to near zero. Would expect showers to continue
everywhere due to the cold air aloft with enhanced activity off the
lake. Highs Sunday in the mid 70s dropping to the upper 50s to near
60 Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weather will remain unsettled Tuesday night through late week as a
deep upper trough moves east across the region. Most precip will
likely be in the traditional snowbelt counties with cold flow off
the lake although hard to rule out instability showers elsewhere
with the cold air aloft. Highs in the 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period as high
pressure remains over the Great Lakes. Only cirrus shield to
deal with today. Light SW winds will turn to the S by daybreak.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in shra Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the region today will drift east to the coast by
Sunday night. Expecting south to southwest flow 5 to 15 knots.
Monday through Tuesday a cold front will cross the lake as low
pressure moves north through the Ohio valley. Timing at this point
remains uncertain given model differences.  Winds however will turn
west behind the front at 15 to 20 knots on Tuesday.  No headlines
expected near term however a small craft headline may be needed next
Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB/TK
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK



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