Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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170
FXUS61 KCLE 231637
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1137 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over western North Carolina will move to the middle
Atlantic Coast by this afternoon. High pressure will briefly ridge
into the region on Tuesday. The next storm system will move into
the Central Great Lakes from the Plains on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Update...Precip evolving largely as expected so no big changes
there. Did carve out a bit more of the central lakeshore and lower
pops for the afternoon. Also made adjustments to the overnight
snow expectation. While the NAM does bring in below zero temps at
850mb from the southeast during the evening...overnight 850mb
temps rise a bit as the colder air pulls east. The GFS never gets
significantly below freezing at 850mb. Therefore decreased the
area where mixed precip was forecast.


Original Discussion... Low pressure over western North Carolina
will move to the middle Atlantic Coast this afternoon. As it does
it will swing several pieces of energy back toward Ohio. So expect
several waves of rainfall through the day. NW Ohio will likely
have its best chances this morning then gradually see it move
eastward for the afternoon. The eastern half of the County Warning
Area will have the high rain chances through the entire day.
Models have backed off slightly on the rainfall amounts so will
not issue a flood watch. However rainfall amounts of half an inch
to an inch east of a line from Mount Vernon to Erie will likely
cause rises on area creeks and rivers. Fortunately it does not
appear that we will have any thunder to increase rainfall rates.

It will be cooler today with the periods of rain and Northeast
winds off of Lake Erie. Western areas will be the coolest since
it will have the best flow off of the colder waters of the lake.
Highs should range from around 40 near the lake to around 50
inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
This area of low pressure will be off the East Coast with showers
rain ending from west to east through the overnight. It will cool
enough tonight that a few higher terrain areas of NE OH/NW PA
could see some snow mix with the rain. Do not expect significant
accumulations. Most locations should be dry by mid morning on
Tuesday. This trend should then continue into Tuesday night as a
ridge of high pressure moves across the area. The next storm
system will move into the central Great Lakes on Wednesday.
SLightly warmer ahead of this low so all locations should see
another round of rain. Cooler air once again spills in behind this
storm system with a transition to snow anticipated Wednesday
night into Thursday. After an upper level trough passes Thursday
morning all locations should change over to snow. From some point
early Thursday morning through Thursday night there is potential
for some snow accumulation, especially across the snowbelt.

Wednesday will be the warmest day of the short term with highs
within a couple degrees of 50. Cooler by thursday with highs back
into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Amplification of the upper level ridge along the west coast will
return the forecast area back to near normal temperatures toward the
end of the week.  This ridge will cause deep troughiness to develop
over the eastern United States during the forecast period allowing
arctic air to return to the local area.  The upper level ridge will
push east across the country and bring another surge of milder air
to the area on Monday, albeit brief.

Surface troughiness will remain persistent through the period
setting up flow from west to east into northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania off Lake Erie.  As cold air advection takes place, some
lake enhancement will take place to produce some snow.  Extensive
area of synoptic moisture will also be present across the entire
forecast area.  This will set the stage for a chance of light snow
across the area and a better chance in the northeast snowbelt areas.

As cold air advection takes place, temperatures will be trending
back toward near normal readings through this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Low pressure will move east across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys
today. Wrap around moisture will produce rain showers across the
area today into this evening. The system will bring low ceilings
and visibilities to the area as well. Looking at IFR to MVFR
conditions across the area to last through the entire forecast
period. Rain should transition over to some drizzle by late in the
period. Winds increasing at Erie at this time and will continue
through early afternoon and then diminish. Otherwise, rest of the
area should see winds 10 to 12 knots through the day and 5 to 10
knots overnight.

OUTLOOK...Widespread Non-VFR likely persisting on Tuesday across
NE OH/NW PA. Non-VFR returns to the area on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Northeast flow on the lake today and tonight gradually diminishing
by Tuesday morning. The winds will be 15 to 25 knots on the lake and
should support the small craft advisory in effect.  Will need to add
the far western portion of the lake to the advisory.  Otherwise,
winds diminish by Tuesday morning and become light and variable
during the day Tuesday.  Then, southwest flow develops on the lake
by Wednesday increasing to around 20 knots sustained as low pressure
moves northeast toward the lake.  Winds will briefly increase to
near 30 knots by Wednesday night as the low gets closer.  Once the
low passes off to the east, winds diminish to 10 to 20 knots
Thursday and Thursday night.  Westerly flow develops as high
pressure builds in from the northwest in concert with the low
pressure to the northeast tightening the gradient between the
systems.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ142>148.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...TK/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Lombardy



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