Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 270554
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
154 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND
BY MONDAY THEN MOVE NORTH THROUGH EASTERN CANADA TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH UP THE OHIO
VALLEY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE SURFACE WARM FRONT IS CLOSE TO MOVING EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FRONT. ALSO SEE SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE JUICY AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 70S IN THE
WEST. WILL NEED TO KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ALL NIGHT. TOUGH TO TELL
WHERE THE NEW DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SO THE NEW PACKAGE WILL BE
PRETTY GENERIC. CONVECTION OVER INDIANA SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT
DEWPOINTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SHOULD HAVE THE COMPLEX WORKING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH. THINK THERE WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL BEHIND THIS
COMPLEX THEN DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASING DYNAMICS FROM A VIGOROUS
UPPER IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM THE WNW WILL DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS
AND LEAD TO NUMEROUS CELLS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATER PART OF THE
DAY INTO SUN NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS.

COOLER AIR WILL START TO SPREAD IN THE SECOND HALF OF SUN NIGHT SO
THE AIRMASS WILL START TO STABILIZE TO END THE THUNDER THREAT FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH STILL OVER THE EAST ON MON MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH COOL AIR ALOFT FOR SOME THUNDER BUT FOR THE MOST PART
SHOULD JUST SEE SHRA.

DRIER AIR PUSHING SE INTO THE WEST SHOULD END THE THREAT FOR RAIN BY
MON NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE MON
NIGHT AND TUE SO PROBABLY WILL SEE SCT SHRA HANG AROUND THE
SNOWBELT. ANOTHER UPPER S/W IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SE TO HELP REINFORCE
THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN LAKES MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THUS...MAY SEE THE SCT SHRA CONCENTRATED IN THE SNOWBELT BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD BY TUE NIGHT.

TEMPS SUN SHOULD STILL BE NEAR NORMAL THEN THE COOL AIR WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA MON AND REMAIN IN PLACE ALL
WEEK SO TEMPS WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY COOL UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
SOME WEAKENING. WEAK VORT LOBES WILL PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH
AND WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE ERIE... LAKE ENHANCED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
FROM LESS THAN 10C TO NEAR 12C WHICH SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO
SLOWLY WARM BUT REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SCATTERED THUNDER PASSED ACROSS THE REGION LAST
EVENING AND HAS CLEARED NORTHERN OHIO AND NW PA. HOWEVER THERE IS
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE REGION SO
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ACTUALLY
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SINCE THERE IS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE EXPECT TO
SEE MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR INLAND LOCATIONS IN FOG. THE
WORST OF THE FOG WILL BE ACROSS NW OHIO WHERE VISIBILITIES MAY DIP
UNDER A 1/2 MILE AT TIMES.

CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z WITH CEILINGS
LIFTING TO THE 2500 TO 3500 FOOT RANGE. THESE CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY
MIX OUT UNTIL THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BETWEEN 17Z AND 20Z. ANY
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IT APPEARS THAT THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS EARLY AS 19Z AND COULD
CONTINUE UNTIL 03Z ACROSS NE OHIO INTO NW PA.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS THE FRONT PASSES AFTER DARK WINDS WILL
SWING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUN NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS THE UPPER FLOW AMPLIFIES AND
WINDS INCREASE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE LAKE
SUNDAY EVENING. WITH THE LAKE NEAR 23C AND COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...HIGHER WINDS WILL MIX TO THE LAKE
SURFACE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED BEGINNING SUNDAY
EVENING AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO
20-27 KNOTS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...LAPLANTE






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.