Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 260253
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
953 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION SPREADING
MORE SNOW INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE TIMING OF THE SNOW AND THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS TRICKY. IT
SEEMS LIKE THE SNOW WILL ALMOST DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND NOT REALLY MOVE IN. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING AND
THE POPS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN
INCH OVERNIGHT AND THAT MAINLY OVER NW OH. THE LOWS ARE MOST
TRICKY ALONG THE LAKESHORE WHERE THE CLOUDS ARE SLOWER TO THICKEN
AND THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE THE COLDEST BECAUSE THE FRONT
DID NOT MOVE TOO FAR SOUTH. THE TRICKIEST WIND CHILLS WILL BE ALONG
THE LAKESHORE. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE A LITTLE LATE TONIGHT AND
IF THE TEMPERATURES REMAIN STEADY THE WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN JUST ABOVE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM THE
COLD FRONT THAT SLIPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ONCE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT. AS THE STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES...MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND BRING WITH
IT A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BY MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY. WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ADJUSTED THE POPS A LITTLE ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. THE WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY AT DAYBREAK. IF THE
WINDS GET A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST AND THE TEMPERATURES
DON`T MODERATE...SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE COULD
JUST MEET WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA. AT THIS TIME THAT IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE CONDITIONS FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY ARE WIND CHILL
READINGS OF 10 BELOW TO 24 BELOW AND CONDITIONS LASTING FOR MORE
THAN A FEW HOURS AND WINDS 6 MPH OR HIGHER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SETTLE SOUTH OVER THE REGION
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN THE TROUGH WILL BE A VIGOROUS POSITIVE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHEAST ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED
TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS LOW WILL CAUSE A
BRIEF SWATH OF SNOW TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SNOW WILL PULL
OUT TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE IN THROUGH SATURDAY
BRINGING FAIR WEATHER TO THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND FORCE
MORE CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SOME MORE SNOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA.

MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT
AND THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY EARLY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR COLDER
FOR LOWS DURING THE NIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE. I AM
GOING TO KEEP THE DAY TIME HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BUT SOME WARMING WILL TAKE PLACE BY SATURDAY. EXPECTING HIGHS
BY SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BE CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LIGHT AND
THAT MAY NEGATE THE NEED FOR A WIND CHILL ADVISORY. LATER
FORECASTS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FIRST ITEM OF INTEREST IS THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN PERSISTENT WITH INCREASING FRONTOGENESIS IN A SPLIT FLOW WITH
SOME GULF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN NORTH AND AN INCREASING JET
ALOFT...ALMOST A COUPLED JET. NO BIG SURFACE LOW AND NO BIG TROUGH
ALOFT BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN POSTING ENOUGH QPF THAT AN ADVISORY
OR PERHAPS A LOWER END WINTER STORM WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY. THE
EVENT MAY DRAG OUT OVER 36 HOURS OR SO. ALSO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
THREAT OF A LITTLE SLEET (SOUTH) OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IF THE PRECIP
TAPERS FOR A WHILE. WITH THE DECENT JET ALOFT INTO MONDAY I WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA AS SOMETIMES THESE EVENTS CAN HAVE A LAST GASP TO THEM.
PLENTY TO CONSIDER BUT WAY TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ACTUAL VALUES IN
THE FORECAST AND WILL WATCH THE MODEL TRENDS AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND.

NOT MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE ACTION AS A WAVE IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ON
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW. I SUSPECT THAT GIVEN THE LACK OF A
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE THAT IT WILL NOT BE A MAJOR STORM WHICH MAY
FAVOR A WEAKER AND COLDER SOLUTION BUT ONCE AGAIN...WAY TO EARLY TO
TRY AND PIN DOWN. WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES JUST IN CASE. A TRAILING SHORT WAVE COULD PROLONG
THE CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A WEAK LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL HELP TO SPREAD LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
THU MORNING. THE SNOW SHOULD END FROM NW TO SE THU AFTERNOON THRU
ABOUT MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. EXPECT IFR TO OCCUR MUCH OF THE TIME
DURING THE SNOW BUT NOT EXPECTING TO SEE VSBY`S BELOW 1SM HARDLY AT
ALL.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR DEVELOPING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD ON LAKE
ERIE. WINDS WILL BECOME RATHER LIGHT AND MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS YET ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
BY THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT...THEN BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA/LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK





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