Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 170000
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
700 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EAST AND
REACH THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPPER/SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE ENE OVERNIGHT
PULLING A COLD FRONT NEAR TOL ESE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA. THE
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE WHOLE AREA WILL SHIFT ENE DURING THE NIGHT
TO MAINLY BE OVER THE SNOWBELT BY DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD CAUSE MOST
OF THE SYNOPTIC RAIN TO SHIFT INTO THE SNOWBELT BY THE END OF THE
NIGHT. COLDER AIR SPREADING INTO THE AREA WILL CAUSE THE RAIN TO
START CHANGING TO SNOW BUT MOST OF THE PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE
CHANGEOVER TAKES PLACE. THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOWBELT MAY BE
CONSISTENT ENOUGH AT THE END OF THE NIGHT FOR A LIGHT SLUSHY
COVERING OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME HIGHER TERRAIN PLACES.

THE GUSTY WINDS BRINGING IN THE DRIER AIR MAY BE ABLE TO DRY MOST
ROADWAYS BEFORE TEMPS GET TO FREEZING...WHICH IS ONLY EXPECTED TO
OCCUR IN THE FAR WEST AND ONLY FOR ABOUT THE LAST HOUR OF THE NIGHT
AFTER 6 AM. LOWS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD BOTTOM OUT FROM 33
TO 36 DEGREES.

SKEPTICAL AS TO HOW MUCH CLEARING ACTUALLY GETS INTO THE WEST BY
MORNING. CLOUDS ARE BREAKING ACROSS IOWA AND THAT AIR DOES GET INTO
THE AREA BUT STILL THINK ANY BREAKS WILL COME IN ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED SREF AND NAM THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW FAIRLY
DRY AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF PRECIP OVER MAINLY NWRN PA. COLD AIR WILL BE MOVING IN
OVERNIGHT BUT BY 12Z 850MB TEMPS SHOULD ONLY BE DOWN TO -4C OR SO
WITH -6C MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. BY 18Z -8 GETS INTO NERN OHIO
AND NWRN PA WITH -10C ACROSS THE AREA BY 00Z THURSDAY. WHILE TOO
WARM FOR LAKE EFFECT...STILL THINK THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS DOWN
WIND OF THE LAKE IN THE SNOW BELT GIVEN THE UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND AN UPPER TROF AXIS TO OUR NORTH. WILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT THROUGH THE MORNING
INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. DID PUT IN AN INCH OR TWO
IN FOR ERIE COUNTY INLAND AN AN INCH OR SO CRAWFORD...NRN ERIE AND
ASHTABULA. MORE MOISTURE FOLD SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THINKING THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH -10C
STILL OVER THE AREA. AGAIN...NOT LOOKING FOR A LOT AS DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH NOT EXPECTED AND TEMPS MARGINAL FOR LAKE INSTABILITY.
FOR THURSDAY 850MB TEMPS WARM TO -6C TO -8C AND MOISTURE
DECREASES A BIT. KEPT SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE SNOW BELT WITH ANOTHER
INCH. SIMILAR CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRYING IN THE
AFTERNOON SO DRIED OUT FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY LOW TO MID 30S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.  THIS WEAK SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE OHIO RIVER INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  A PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO
MUCH OF EASTERN OHIO AND NW PA. WITH 850MB TEMPS FORECAST TO BE -2
TO -4C MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  A
SECOND SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN BUT A RAIN SNOW MIX COULD
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE BAND OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF IT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
MIDNIGHT. SOME FLURRIES COULD OCCUR IN THE SNOW BELT LATE TONIGHT
BUT ANY LOW VISIBILITIES WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS INCREASE AS A TROF
MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. A MIX OF MAINLY IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND THIS EVENING AND THEN START DECREASING BY LATE
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR BY NOON AND THEN CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT STILL REMAIN MVFR. SOME OF THE MODELS SEEM TO
IMPROVE CONDITIONS TOO QUICKLY WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA
IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE AND OTHERWISE NON VFR AT
TIMES LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.  WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND THEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE LAKE.  MODERATELY STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
EAST COAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...GARNET
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...GARNET





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