Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 302239
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
639 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over western Kentucky will slowly lift north into lower
Michigan by Sunday then shift east of the forecast area Monday.
Large area of high pressure will move across the Great Lakes Monday
and move off the New England Coast late Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Spiral bands around the upper level low that was located over
southeast Indiana will continue to move north and west with time.
Due to instability because of the colder air aloft, will keep
mention of isolated thunderstorms across the area. Otherwise, made
a few minor adjustments to the weather/pop grids and
temperature/dewpoint grids to account for trends.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure still centered over Western Kentucky.  All three models
track the low north along the Indiana/Ohio border overnight...to
near Dayton by daybreak.   At the surface expect another band of
showers to move NE across the forecast area this evening into early
tonight...gradually lifting north of the area after midnight.  For
overnight temps...blended last nights lows with this afternoons dew
points.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Models coming into a little better agreement on the track and timing
of the low.   But again...today the models are a little slower
ejecting the low than they were yesterday.   The upper level low
drifts north into Lower Michigan by Saturday evening.   Both the
upper level and surface low linger over the Central Lakes Sunday.
Best focus will be over the Central Lakes into the primary snowbelt
area.  High pressure finally starts to eject the low on Monday. Left
chance pops going in the east because models still may be a tad fast
with the low...and potential for some lake enhanced showers off the
lake with 850mb temps around 8c.   Very little change in the temps
through Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The models are in reasonably good agreement with the upper low
finally sliding off the east coast later Monday/Monday night.
There is still a hint of low pressure aloft left behind as the rex
block forms over the Great Lakes but let us assume that there will be
enough high pressure and subsidence given the time of year that dry
weather will prevail through mid week.

Not very confident about the timing of next cold front. It will
likely have to wait for the tropical system going up the east coast
unless a weakening front sneaks through quick enough as suggested
by the ECMWF. Will mention a small chance of showers Thursday for
northwest Ohio and keep a small chance of showers Friday given the
uncertainty.

Temperatures should rebound nicely as the ridge builds aloft with
highs in the 70s. It will get cooler later in the week but not very
confident on the forecast temps until we figure out the timing of the
next front and the amount of clouds and showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Friday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Trying to time the areas of rain rotating around low pressure in
the Ohio Valley will remain problematic. Expect the current swath
of rain over central Ohio to slide across northwest Ohio though
the evening. Additional showers are expected to develop tonight
across extreme northeast OH and northwest PA. Ceilings will
remain MVFR during the showers with local IFR visibilities and
ceilings during the heaviest showers. Will not mention thunder in
the TAF forecasts but cannot rule it out. Ceilings and
visibilities may improve to VFR for a while late today and early
tonight but MVFR/IFR stratus will redevelop in some areas early
Saturday morning.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in showers and low ceilings at times into
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
The east winds will gradually relax and as the persistent low
pressure area over the Ohio Valley weakens and drifts back toward the
Great Lakes this weekend but the wind and waves will remain high
enough to keep the small craft advisory posted into tonight. The flow
will veer more from the south over the weekend and then veer
northwest on Monday as the low moves east.

High pressure will build in Monday and Tuesday. The center of the
surface high over eastern Canada will result in winds veering all the
way northeast late Tuesday into Wednesday so the west half of the
lake could get a bit choppy.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ148-
     149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Saturday for LEZ142>147.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...Kosarik
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Kosarik


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