Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221133
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
733 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS OHIO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE DIFFUSE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WILL START TO INCH SOUTH BY THIS
EVENING. THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FROM THE WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER
THE REGION. CURRENTLY...MUCH OF THE CONVECTION HAD DIED DOWN SO
STARTING POPS WILL BE LOW THIS MORNING.

WITH DAYTIME HEATING...NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP. MODELS QPF
AMOUNTS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE FOR TODAY AS WHAT WAS BEING SHOWN
SEVERAL DAYS AGO SO THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE LESS
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL THU IN NE TRUMBULL CO WILL
MAKE THIS AREA THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE FLOODING OCCUR WITH ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.

WIND SHEAR REMAINS WEAK SO LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

HIGH TEMPS WILL NOT BE OVERLY WARM TODAY...GENERALLY TOPPING OUT
MAINLY IN AN 80 TO 85 RANGE BUT THE HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE
CONDITIONS SEEM UNCOMFORTABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH TO BE SOUTH OF THE
OHIO RIVER BY SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE NE.
MOISTURE IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH DURING THIS
TIME SO THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT INTO MAINLY THE SOUTH
HALF OF THE CWA FOR SAT AND MAYBE EVEN SOUTH OF THE WHOLE AREA FOR
SUN. ALSO HELPING TO STABILIZE THE AIRMASS BY SUN IS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE UPPER LEVELS BUILDING NE INTO THE AREA. THE RIDGE
WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR MUCH CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ON MON BUT THE
MODELS STILL TRY AND DEVELOP A FEW TSRA SO WILL HANG ON TO SLIGHT
CHC POPS IN THE WEST WHERE A LITTLE LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE
PRESENT.

THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL CAUSE THE AIRMASS TO WARM DUE TO
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SO HIGH TEMPS THAT HAVE BEEN HELD IN CHECK
MAINLY FROM 80 TO 85 WILL NOW BE ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER
80S FOR ALL BUT THE EAST PART OF THE CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE ABLE TO SQUASH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR
ALL BUT NW OHIO. CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT BE MENTIONED IN THE
ZONE FORECAST BUT AN ISOLATED STORM IS NOT IMPOSSIBLE. BY WEDNESDAY
THE RIDGE SHOULD BE BREAKING DOWN AND START TO GET NUDGED EASTWARD
AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL MEAN INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. BEST CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S...A FEW LOWER 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST. SLIGHTLY COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY IF THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPS SOON ENOUGH. IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY HIGHS SHOULD DIP BACK INTO THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON. SOME IFR HAS BEEN OBSERVED FROM FINDLAY TO
MANSFIELD TO MOUNT VERNON AND NEAR YOUNGSTOWN. THE FOG AND LOWER
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF WITH AN MVFR CEILING LIKELY
DEVELOPING WITH THE MORNING MIX. THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NE
OHIO INTO NW PA THAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING.
ELSEWHERE WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE LOCATIONS OF THE NUMEROUS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FOR NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OR TIMING OF
THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. TRIED TO PLACE A VICINITY THUNDER DURING
THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMES.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...POSSIBLY
A BIT MORE NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKESHORE. FOG WILL
BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING NUMEROUS INLAND
LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW A 1/2 MILE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE FROM THE LAKE TO CENTRAL
OHIO THROUGH TONIGHT AS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW MOVES IT AROUND. AWAY
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. BY THIS AFTERNOON IT LOOKS
AS IF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ALLOWING FOR A
NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW TO DEVELOP. THE NEARSHORE WATERS MAY BE A BIT
MORE FROM THE NORTH UNTIL SUNSET. THIS NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL
THEN PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 5 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. HOWEVER THE WESTERN BASIN WILL BE CLOSER TO
15 KNOTS. THIS WILL HELP TO BUILD WAVES INTO THE 1 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN





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