Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 021944
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
344 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ALONG IT IN OHIO. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EAST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC HAS A FEW WEAK RETURNS OVER NW OHIO AND INDIANA. CAN
NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER BUT FOR
NOW WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ENHANCED
UPPER CLOUDS INCREASING AS A VORT CENTER OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS
MOVE EAST TOWARDS OHIO AS SHOWN IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE NEXT
UPDATE MAY NEED TO RECONSIDER THE DRY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE TRANQUIL WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION SO
THERE COULD BE ONCE AGAIN A BRIEF SHOWER BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING MEASURABLE RAIN.

ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER IS EXPECTED
VERY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RATHER
IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE DIGS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS RATHER HIGH WITH GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW PROGRESS EAST AS THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION AND LEAVES SOMEWHAT
OF AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION.

GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT LEAVING BEHIND COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME
RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BECOMES PINCHED AND GETS CUT OFF
FROM THE MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS IT MEANDERS EASTWARD. NORTHERN
OHIO AND NW PA ENDS UP ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL CUT
OFF LOW WHICH SUPPORTS AVA AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE SOME RIDGING OVER THE REGION AND LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RATHER MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO BE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTING
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN CANADA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL EXTEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY SOME
THUNDER LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
AMPLIFIED ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CUT OFF OVER
QUEBEC ON MONDAY. THEN THE EXTEND MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY BUT WILL RECOVER TO ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST. THE ONLY OPTIMISTIC POINT ON THE TEMPERATURES WOULD
BE FOR SATURDAY WHERE WE MAY FINALLY HIT THE 70 DEGREE MARK FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WEEK AND A HALF IN THIS SEEMINGLY CHILLY AND WET
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
HAS LEFT BEHIND A SOLID DECK OF NON VFR CIGS ACROSS THE REGION.
THESE CIGS HAVE STRUGGLED TO LIFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS KTOL AND
KFDY HAVE JUST REACHED MVFR STATUS WHILE THE OTHER FIVE SITES ARE
STUCK IN IFR. MEANWHILE ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF KMFD/KCAK/KYNG THIS EVENING BRINGING
ADDITION MOISTURE TO THE REGION. MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS TAF
PACKAGE DIFFERS GREATLY BETWEEN IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT TO ENTIRELY
LIFTING THE LAYER TO VFR. SEEING NO TRUE FORCING TO LIFT THE
LAYER AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE REGION... WENT MORE
PESSIMISTIC WITH SOME OF THE TAFS SITES TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE
EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT WITH OTHERS LIFTING INTO MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY VFR ESPECIALLY KTOL/KFDY. IN ADDITION SOME THINNING
OF CLOUDS OVER LAKE ERIE MAKE ME BELIEVE THAT KERI MAY JUMP FROM
IFR TO VFR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CERTAINLY A MIXED BAG OF CIGS
TO BE CONCERNED WITH THIS EVENING...

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE LOOKS VERY QUIET THIS WEEK. WAVES LOOKS TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE TIME
AROUND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER AROUND THIS PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 15 KT
WHICH WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...SEFCOVIC
AVIATION...SEFCOVIC
MARINE...SEFCOVIC


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