Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 271953
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
353 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT REACHING THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LIFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH HAS GATHERED ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FROM LAKE
ERIE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL LIKELY OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING
COMMUTE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE BUT LOCATIONS
THAT GET PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AN INCH. THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT UP THE LAKESHORE
THROUGH SUNRISE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE NY/PA BORDER COULD TOP OUT
AROUND 3 INCHES BY SUNRISE.

IT WILL BE COLD TONIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON SATURDAY WITH ANY
REMAINING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NW PA ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS. COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH THE RAIN CHANGING BACK TO THE SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD BE IN CONTROL BY MONDAY EVENING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. WARMER ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BUT WE WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PAIR OF SYSTEMS FROM THE PACIFIC/WESTERN CANADA WILL TOP THE
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE FOR MID WEEK. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY AND A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT WILL BE MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A FLATTER RIDGE TRANSLATING EASTWARD. A WARMUP WILL
BE IN STORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT A GENERAL CONSENSUS BRINGS
THE LOW AND COLD FRONT TO OUR AREA THURSDAY. HAVE CONTINUED
THE CHANCES WE HAD GOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR MID
AFTERNOON...ENHANCING THE LIGHT SNOW FOR NRN OH/NW PA THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR IN THE SHSN. ON
THE OUTSKIRTS TOWARD TOL/FDY CONDITIONS ARE VFR AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LARGELY STAY THAT WAY...UNLESS SOME OF THE MVFR CEILINGS BRUSH
THOSE TERMINALS. NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND WITH THE
COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE FLOW OFF OF THE LAKE EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO
SEE CEILINGS ON EITHER SIDE OF 3K FEET. DRIER AIR AND RIDGING WORK
INTO THE AREA MORE EFFECTIVELY SATURDAY MORNING...SCATTERING OUT
THE REMAINING CEILINGS.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LINGERING ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW PA INTO
SATURDAY. AREAS OF NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND
AGAIN TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE LAKE TONIGHT
AS A TROUGH FINISHES MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE ON
SATURDAY WILL ALLOW THE WINDS TO DIMINISH. THE NEXT RAMP UP OF WINDS
ARRIVES ON SUNDAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHEN WSW WINDS
COULD REACH 30 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARD MONDAY EVENING AS THE
HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. A QUICK MOVING SPRING CLIPPER
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES FOR TUESDAY. QUIET WEDNESDAY. FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD THE ICE WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY






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