Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 211131
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
731 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY THEN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL PUSH THE FRONT SOUTHWEST
OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FRONT STALLED NEAR LAKE ERIE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP TODAY. THE AIRMASS REMAINS WARM AND HUMID SO THERE WILL
BE GOOD INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WIND SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
LIGHT SO NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS ALTHOUGH A
FEW MAY BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE IN THE FAR WEST. THE BIGGER THREAT
WILL BE FOR HEAVY RAINS AND WHETHER FLOODING WILL OCCUR. HEAVY RAINS
THE PAST TWO DAYS HAVE MAINLY BEEN OVER THE SE/EAST PART OF THE CWA
SO THIS AREA SHOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO SEE FLOODING IF HEAVY
RAIN OCCURS. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THE
HEAVIER RAIN MAY OCCUR TODAY. NEITHER THE NAM NOR GFS PUT OUT ANY
HEAVY QPF IN THE CWA THRU 00Z THIS EVE SO NOT LEANING TOWARD A FLOOD
WATCH.

THE HUMID AIRMASS AND CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING
TOO MUCH GIVEN THE WARM AIRMASS SO ONLY EXPECT HIGHS FROM UPPER 70S
FAR NE TO LOW TO MAYBE MID 80S SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THRU SUN NIGHT
TO CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. AS WAVES OF
CONVECTION OCCUR THE THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL REMAIN HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. NEXT ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRI WITH A COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPS OVER WI/NRN IL AND MOVES ESE
INTO THE CWA THEN END OF TONIGHT AND FRI. SOME OF THESE STORMS IN
THE WEST COULD BE SEVERE TONIGHT AND FRI.

SAT INTO SAT NIGHT SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR IS SHOWN MOVING OVER THE AREA
SO THIS TIME PERIOD MAY BE THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING THE LEAST AMOUNT
OF CONVECTION. SAT AND SUN HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL TO BE VERY WARM
DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SW IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. HIGHS
THESE DAYS IN THE SW MAY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ITS INFLUENCE ON THE
AREA INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY. AFTERNOON HEATING AND ANY LOCALIZED
CONVERGENCE MAY BE ABLE TO CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. BY WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE SHOULD BE BREAKING DOWN AND
START TO GET NUDGED EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS MAY MEAN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY.

THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE LONGEST STRETCH OF WARM AND
HUMID AIR OF THE SEASON. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MIDDLE
AND UPPER 80S COMMON. SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE STILL MAY BE SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG WITH THE INITIAL MIX THIS
MORNING BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE UNAFFECTED. THE MOVEMENT OF A
WARM FRONT THAT IS LOCATED FROM CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO SOUTHWEST
OHIO WILL BECOME THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST.

THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST WITH LIFT EXPECT NEAR AND NORTH OF
THE WARM FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CLIP THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE REGION NEAR KFDY THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING TO ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY FROM KCLE EASTWARD ACROSS KCAK INTO THE KYNG
AREA. TRIED TO TIME THIS INTO THESE SITES. THE MAIN SHOW LOOKS AS
IF IT WILL OCCUR AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS AN MCS
DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO NW OHIO. LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST WILL BE IN
ITS PATH BEYOND 12Z ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED OVER OHIO INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
OCCURRING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD MEAN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ONSHORE EACH
AFTERNOON. A LAND BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED EACH NIGHT. WAVES WILL BE 2
FEET OR LESS AWAY FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN





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