Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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971
FXUS61 KCLE 221543
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1043 AM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move toward the mid Atlantic coast today.
Another low pressure system will track northeast into the Great
Lakes region on Friday, lifting a warm front north into the
area. A stationary front will linger across the region through
the weekend until another low pressure system moves into the
Great Lakes on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Conditions are starting to improve across the area this morning,
with widespread precip starting to push east out of the forecast
area. Temperatures have generally risen above freezing across
most of the area this morning, with most of the precip reports
across the area either rain or snow. Therefore, have cancelled
the advisory a few hours early. There could be a few spots of
freezing rain for the next hour or two, but the widespread
threat has ended for the day. Precip should be mostly out of the
area by early afternoon, so just minor adjustments to pops and
temp trends across the area with this update.

Original discussion...
In simple terms, we are dealing with a meteorological mess. A
weak wave of low pressure continues to move northeast through
the Ohio Valley producing a mixed bag of precipitation across
the forecast area. Meanwhile, high pressure just north of the
Great Lakes will push cold air slowly southwest into the
forecast area this morning. The cold air will begin to retreat
today and allow temperatures to recover into the middle 30s in
the northwest half of the forecast area and into the middle 40s
in the southeast half. In the mean time, as moisture streams
north, it will interact with the low level cold air at the
surface in the form of rain/freezing rain/sleet/snow. 850 mb
temperatures are running just above freezing and depth of the
cold air near the surface has been enough to produce sleet in
the north portions of the forecast area. Temperatures continue
to slip down to around 32 degrees and some areas will continue
to report freezing rain. Toledo so far has been fortunate enough
to stay out of the precipitation since they are sitting at 32
degrees at this time. Toledo will remain on the fringe of the
precipitation shield but will catch a glancing blow by a brief
shot of precipitation for a couple hours. The best chance of
precipitation will be in the southeast and I expect that to
remain all rain through the duration of the morning hours.

As the low pressure system pulls out to the northeast, the
precipitation will go with it and gradually taper off this
afternoon from west to east. Another low pressure system will
move northeast toward the area and force the cold front back
north as a warm front tonight. The front will become stationary
and the low is expected to move along the boundary to the
northeast. This storm system will bring warmer air back to the
region tonight into Friday. There is the possibility that more
freezing rain could affect the Toledo area and northwest
portions of the forecast area tonight at the onset of
precipitation. Temperatures will warm and bring an end to the
freezing rain threat late tonight.

As the rain moves into the area tonight into Friday, there is
the potential that the rain could be heavy enough to cause
runoff issues across the forecast area. This will have to be
monitored for the possibility of a flood watch over portions of
the area. Held a national conference call with WPC to determine
the extent of the rainfall. So far, looking at around 0.4" to
0.5" across the area on Friday. Updated hazardous weather
outlook to mention potential for river and stream impacts
Friday.

Warm air advection will take place Friday in advance of the low
pressure system allowing temperatures to recover back into the
50s for highs except upper 40s in the northwest and northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Current trends in the models will keep the precipitation all liquid
through Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall Saturday into early Sunday
may result in additional flooding. A flood watch is looking likely
for at least the southern half of the County Warning Area(CWA).

Now for the timing of the systems across the region. It appears high
pressure will attempt to nudge the frontal boundary southward to near
the Ohio River Valley Friday night with the hope that we will get 12
hours with no rain falling. The next wave rides along the frontal
boundary on Saturday with it lifting toward the southern portion of
the CWA. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. A stronger area of
low pressure will sweep across the Great Lakes Saturday night into
Sunday with another round of locally heavy rainfall possible along a
cold front. This boundary should sweep across the region on Sunday
with gusty southwest to west winds anticipated. The rain should be
east of the entire CWA by Sunday evening.

Temperatures will be above seasonal averages through the short term
ranging from the mid 40s to around 60. Sunday will likely be the
warmest day.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure should take control of the region on Monday and then
persist into Tuesday night. So there will finally be a 60 hour
window of dry conditions. The next area of low pressure may begin to
impact the region late Wednesday.

It will be slightly cooler Monday through Wednesday but temperatures
should remain above seasonal averages. For the most part highs will
range from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Storm system is evolving and trying to push some warmer air into
the forecast area at this time. Areas east of a line from
Cleveland to Marion are for the most part above freezing. Some
pockets are at freezing and will continue to hold on to the
advisory for freezing rain. Drier air is pushing south against
the precipitation helping to keep ceilings VFR across the north.
Some pockets of lower ceilings have slipped through but for the
most part VFR. Precipitation will move out to the east today and
a brief break will take place ahead of the next system that will
arrive later tonight. The precipitation could be a bit of
freezing rain at Toledo during the onset and then warm air
advection will take place after midnight and should help keep
the rest of the area all rain.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely to dominate most of the time through
Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Frontal boundary will continue to wobble across Ohio Today into
Saturday as each ripple of low pressure moves along it.
Northeasterly 10 to 20 knot winds are expected today into tonight
with much of the deteriorating ice shoved up against the south shore
of Lake Erie. Winds will briefly become westerly as low pressure
passes Friday morning. High pressure will then briefly ridge onto
the lake before the next ripple of low pressure tracks across
central Ohio. Winds will shift around to the northeast once again
ahead of it on Saturday. A deeper area of low pressure is expected
to develop over the central Plains on Saturday then track into the
western Great Lakes Saturday night into Sunday. This will cause a
significant increase in the winds from a southwesterly direction,
especially on Sunday. We will need to monitor for a low end gale.
Winds begin to relax Sunday night as the low pulls well to the
northeast of the region.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Greenawalt/Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Mullen



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