Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 201732
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1232 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY AND PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE LOCAL
AREA ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER STRONG WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LITTLE CHANGE WITH THIS UPDATE. EXTENDED CLOUDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. SOME PEEKS OF SUN POSSIBLE OVER
TOLEDO BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AM OPTIMISTIC THAT WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT SOME OF
THE CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
LIKELY ON SUNDAY. STILL A LOT OF QUESTIONS FOR THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE SURFACE FEATURES THAT WILL AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE MADE CHANGES TO THE MONDAY FORECAST AS IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE DAY WILL BE DRY. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL STEADILY INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL
EVENTUALLY NEED LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. AT FIRST
THE PRECIP WILL BE SHOWERY BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE ALSO
CONTINUED THE RECENT TREND OF BUMPING TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND PLUS 10
DEGREES SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING THUNDER TO THE
TUESDAY FORECAST.  WINDS WILL BE RIPPING BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO CONSIDER SOME SORT OF WIND
HEADLINE...ESPECIALLY NEAR KERI WHERE STRONG DOWNSLOPING SE FLOW
IS A POSSIBILITY. THE MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD ENDS. HOPEFULLY MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
CENTRAL LAKES ON WEDNESDAY LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.  ECMWF A LITTLE FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW.   BOTH
MODELS HAVE THE 850MB TEMPS WARMING TO 8-9C WHICH WOULD GIVE SURFACE
TEMPS IN THE 50S.  STILL HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM SO UNDERCUT MODELS TEMPS WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WHICH IS STILL 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

WHICHEVER MODEL YOU BELIEVE FORECAST IS STILL THE SAME.  RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY CHANGING TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING THEN
TO SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  BY CHRISTMAS MORNING THE 850MB TEMPS
PLUNGE TO -9C AND THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE BEGINS.  BUT WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW BUFFALO WILL GET THE BULK OF THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW.

MODELS TOTALLY DIVERGE BY FRIDAY.   THE GFS HAS A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MORE COLD AND SNOW.   THE ECMWF IS
TOTALLY OPPOSITE...MOVING ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE
CENTRAL LAKES LIFTING A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.   IN THIS
SCENARIO THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RAIN.  FOR NOW WILL JUST LEAVE
LOW CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN OR SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPROVE TO LOW END VFR AT A FEW
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE AND ACROSS NW OHIO. OTHERWISE
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE
EAST. NON VFR RETURNS LATE MONDAY AND STICKS AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WORK WEEK.
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL LAKES WILL
SLIDE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY.  AS HIGH
SLIDES EAST WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.  CONDITIONS
CHANGE DRASTICALLY BY MID WEEK AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE LAKES.   MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTENSE LOW INTO THE
CENTRAL LAKES WEDNESDAY DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE.   GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES LATE WEDNESDAY
WHILE THE ECMWF IS FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE
LOW.   EITHER WAY WEST TO SOUTHWEST GALES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.  FRIDAY STILL IN DOUBT AS GFS MOVES A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE...WHILE ECMWF MOVES A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.