Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 141140
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES NORTHEAST INTO
QUEBEC TODAY...PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS APPROACHING NW OHIO.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONFINED TO THE DEEP SOUTH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A CHANCE IN THE FORECAST. WINDS ARE INCREASING
AS EXPECTED WITH PEAK GUSTS AT 7 AM OF 48 MPH AT DFI AND 45 MPH AT
MNN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 8AM AND NOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 995MB SURFACE
LOW NEAR CHICAGO WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS LAKE
HURON AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO OKLAHOMA. NORTHERN
OHIO IS STARTING THE DAY OFF IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR 70 DEGREES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. THE
LOW WILL QUICKLY TRACK NORTHEAST AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ZIPPING
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS
MORNING AS A VERY STRONG 65 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL OHIO. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET THIS MORNING AND NOT THE ACTUAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS ALOFT ARE LOCATED
SOME 200-250 MILES OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS SPEEDS START
TO DECREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WHICH DOES NOT HAVE A VERY
FAST FORWARD MOTION OR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM PUSH. WITH THAT
SAID...MODELS ARE INDICATING A 2-4 HOUR WINDOW WHERE WE COULD SEE
WINDS GUST TO 40-50 MILES ACROSS MOST OF NRN OHIO AND A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT OUR EASTERN 2 TIERS OF
COUNTIES. MFD ALREADY REPORTED A GUST TO 51 MPH AT 251 AM. THE NAM
AND OTHER MORE HI RES MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE WINDS BETTER
THAN THE GFS WHICH IS STRUGGLING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS AND
MIXING DEPTHS. THE ADVISORY WILL RUN UNTIL 18Z BUT WINDS MAY START
TO COME DOWN A LITTLE EARLIER AS THE RAIN MOVES IN ALTHOUGH THE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR ANY STRONGER SHOWERS TO BRING STRONG
WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IF THE RAIN FILLS IN FASTER THAN
EXPECTED THIS MORNING IT COULD HELP TO STABILIZE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND CUT BACK ON MIXING. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THE RAIN WILL
BE INTERMITTENT ENOUGH INITIALLY TO NOT HAVE A STABILIZING EFFECT.
THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED BY WARM AIR IN THE
MID-LEVELS AND MINIMAL INSTABILITY WITH DEWPOINTS STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THIS MORNING IN NW
OHIO...WITH HIGHS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON IN NE OHIO/NW PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR ACROSS NW OHIO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PRECIPITATION FILLING BACK IN THIS EVENING. A JET
STREAK WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS INDIANA/NW OHIO WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ENHANCING LIFT ALONG THE 700MB FRONT. THERMAL PROFILES
WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST...STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT
TOWARDS TOLEDO AND OCCURRING NEAR SUNRISE IN CLEVELAND. THE NAM
SEEMS TO HOLD ONTO A WARM LAYER OF AIR BETWEEN 850-700MB A LITTLE
TOO LONG WHILE THE GFS MAY COOL TOO QUICKLY. WENT WITH A BLENDED
SOLUTION THAT ALLOWS FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF WET SNOW...MAINLY
OVERNIGHT IN NW OHIO...TAPERING TO ABOUT AN INCH OF SNOW IN
EASTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY MORNING. GROUND TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING
TO WARM UP SO THAT MAY HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON ACCUMULATIONS.
WITH THAT SAID...WE COULD HAVE A PERIOD OF GOOD SNOWFALL RATES
WHICH WILL REDUCE THE EFFECTS OF THE WARM GROUND...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE TRANSITION TO SNOW OCCURS
FASTER THEN ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE HIGHER. AFTER WARM CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND...HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID AND
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING AND
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE LOW 20S AND POSSIBLY TEENS IN NW PA.
THE COOL SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WARM ADVECTION RAMPING UP ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING
THE WESTERN LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO 60 AGAIN BY
THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM BEGINS FRIDAY WITH MODELS SHOWING AN UPPER TROF DIGGING
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE ASSOCIATED TROF
WILL BE IN MISSOURI OR ILLINOIS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT NORTHEAST
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WITH DIFFERENCES SHOWING UP...MODELS
BRING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE AREA BY 00Z SATURDAY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO NEAR
CHICAGO. WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN INTO MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST CHANCES WEST. FRIDAY NIGHT THE GFS BRING
A CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF HAS
AN OPEN WAVE. GFS SURFACE LOW IS ALSO A LOT STRONGER.  WILL GO CLOSE
TO HPC/EFMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS LESS INTENSE. STILL...EXPECT A GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE UPPER TROF AND
SURFACE SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SATURDAY...TAPERING OFF SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TEMPS SEASONAL TO JUST ABOVE FRIDAY...AND A
COUPLE DEGREES BELOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE LOW OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES EARLY TODAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN OHIO BEGINNING AFTER ABOUT 15Z. EXPECT
FRONT INTO THE KTOL AREA 17Z-18Z...22-23Z KCLE AND JUST AFTER 00Z
KERI. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WELL AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY LOWERING
TO MVFR NEAR THE FRONT AND MVFR TO IFR AFTER PASSAGE. COULD HAVE A
FEW TSTMS IN THE AREA AS WELL...MAINLY NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE
MORNING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH GUSTS INTO THE MID 30S...AND
HIGHER IF MIXING IS DEEPER.  IFR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR MAINLY IN THE EAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS OR SO
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WILL LIKELY BE A DECREASE IN WINDS INVOF THE COLD
FRONT FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW...MAINLY TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BACK AGAIN TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AS IT IS. FOR TODAY OFFSHORE...LOWER LEVELS ARE
LIKELY SOMEWHAT STABLE WITH THE WARM AIR/COLD WATER SETUP BUT CLOSER
TO SHORE EXPECT WINDS TO REACH CRITERIA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WINDS SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN COLD
ADVECTION.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LAKE
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OHZ003-006>013-
     017>022-027>032-036>038-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK






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