Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 181414
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
914 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build over the area from the
southeast today. A weak but dry cool front will push south
across the local area tonight. High pressure will build back over
the region Sunday and Monday but a cold front will cross the
region on Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
No significant changes to the forecast with this mid morning
update. See climate section below for record temp references.

Previous discussion...Not much to talk about today other than
temps. Most areas should set new records today. We will be
getting off to a warm start with readings many areas still in
the lower 50s. There will be an increase in cloudiness from the
south today but most areas will be at least partly cloudy.
Overall it should seem a little cloudier than Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mild weather will continue the entire period. A weakening cold
front will sag south across the area tonight so highs on
Sunday should be a tad cooler than today...especially in the
north. Have still gone a few degrees above guidance. More of the
same for Monday with sunshine and mild temps. The next weather
maker of note will be a cold frontal passage on Tuesday. Have
spread precip chances across the area during the day and then
dried things out from west to east on Tuesday night. Expect the
showers to be scattered in nature so comfortable not going
higher than chance pops for now. Have stayed to the warm side
of guidance the entire period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday will be dry as the front from the night before will be
well off to the east by the afternoon and a weak short-wave ridge
will move eastward across the area. Temperatures will continue to be
much above normal Wednesday with highs likely rising into the 60s.

A warm front will move north through the area Thursday afternoon
into Thursday night. Some timing differences exist between the GFS
and ECMWF with the GFS remaining a few hours slower. A chance for
rain showers will exist along this boundary, but the uncertainty is
a little too high to have anything more than "slight chance" wording
for now during the afternoon on Thursday.

A strong storm system will develop across the Plains states and
track toward the Great Lakes by the end of the work week. Both the
ECMWF and GFS bring showers and storms into the forecast area late
Friday or Friday night. It is still too far out to get any more
specific than that at this time. Unseasonably warm weather will
persist until the front comes through, with highs on both Thursday
and Friday rising into the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
VFR conditions will continue through today and into tonight.
Only some high clouds are expected this afternoon. Winds will
gust to around 20 knots this afternoon before dying down this
evening. There is potential for some fog to develop overnight
generally after 07Z-09Z, which could lead to some MVFR
conditions.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Breezy southwest winds will continue across Lake Erie through this
morning before diminishing through the afternoon hours. The best
waves will remain off shore, so there will be no need for a Small
Craft Advisory.

A weak front will drop south across the eastern Great Lakes on
Sunday and the flow will veer to the north and then east early next
week. A spring weather pattern will persist next week with winds
veering back to the south on Tuesday. Winds will increase ahead of a
weak cold front Tuesday into Tuesday night, but should remain well
below advisory criteria.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Records for 2/18

Toledo 59 in 1961
Mansfield 60 in 1961
Cleveland 62 in 1981
Akron-Canton 60 in 1981
Youngstown 59 in 2011
Erie PA 61 in 1981

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Oudeman
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Mottice
AVIATION...Mottice
MARINE...Mottice
CLIMATE...oudeman


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