Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 220723
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
323 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure along the east coast will drift south today and
allow a weak cold front to sag south across the central Great
Lakes tonight. Another cold front will arrive late Sunday night
into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
An upper shortwave will move across the region early this morning
and as it is approaching is beginning to fire up some convections
across southern Michigan and southern Ontario. This activity is
expected to drift south across the northern counties through the
morning.
Warm and muggy conditions will prevail with temperatures warming
into the mid 80s by morning with dewpoints rising into the low
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Heat Advisory continues for Today and Saturday for the western
half of the CWA. While convective debris may limit sunshine this
morning a fair amount of sun this afternoon should allow for
these areas to see heat indices topping 100 degrees.

Will continue chance pops for today. While the most unstable air
continues to remain to the west some afternoon and evening storms
could develop. The weak cold front drops south across the area
overnight and early Saturday. Will continue the chance pops across
the south on Saturday. Forecast is dry for Saturday night/early
Sunday. Convention out ahead of the approching cold front on
Sunday results in chance pops across the western sections during
the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Morning timing of passage of weak cold front mon morning for much of
the cwa may mean a dry frontal passage so will keep best pops in the
se. Pocket of drier air with high pressure looks to stay over the
area thru wed then some moisture starts to return for thu to allow
for small chc pops by then.

Temps should run above normal mon, moderating back to around to
slightly above normal for tue thru thu.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A weak cold front will drift sse into the area by tonight triggering
sct shra/tsra. Will hold tafs to just vcsh/vcts due to a less than
50% chc pop. Any patchy fog this morning will dissipate by 14z with
a sct to bkn field of cu developing with additional high clouds
above. Fog will develop tonight for most of the area with some spots
possibly seeing some ifr.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non vfr from shra/tsra possible Sat into Mon.

&&

.MARINE...
SWSW winds running 15 to 20 knots for a good part of the day will
probably produce 3 to 5 foot waves from ashtabula east today so will
run a small craft advisory with the associated beach hazard into
early tonight. A weak cold front crosses the lake early tonight and
winds start to veer to the nw while diminishing west to east.

Light and changeable winds set up out of the sw by sun night and
increase to 10 to 20 knots ahead of the next weak cold front due to
cross the lake on mon that veers winds to the west then nw late mon
and mon night. Winds diminish on tue as highs pressure spreads into
the lake.


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EDT Saturday for
     OHZ003-006>011-017>021-027>031-036>038-047.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for OHZ089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 PM EDT this
     evening for LEZ148-149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Adams



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