Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241302
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
902 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front over the midwest will lift north across the area
this morning. Saturday, low pressure over Missouri will move
northeast to near Chicago by Sunday morning. Sunday the low will
continue northeast across the central Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Radar showing a lot of popcorn showers across the area. This
activity will likely persist into midday so have gone with
scattered wording much of the area. Have also bumped up winds
some as it should be rather gusty today.


Original...Rain moving east across the area early today. If
timing holds, the precip should move east of Ashtabula/Trumbull
counties around 7am and out of NWRN PA around 8am. Have moved
pops to categorical in the grids across the region through the
early morning based on timing. Will also linger likely/chance
pops in NWRN PA into mid morning in case timing is too fast.
With the warm front north of the area for the late morning and
afternoon...still believe there will be at least some sunshine.
Will still hold onto 65 to 70% coverage but should yield a
"partly sunny" forecast in the zones. Impressive warm advection
took place from late yday and through the night. By 12Z 850mb
temps should be +10 to +12C across the area. This along with the
broken sunshine should get afternoon temps into the 60s. Early
today models show a 50-60kt low level jet across the area. Winds
drop off back to around 30kts later this afternoon. With good
mixing expected it should be a breezy day with sustained winds
15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Tonight the warm front will be to our north but should begin to
sag south towards morning possibly nudging back into the area.
Believe for the most part we should remain dry with the focus
for precip remaining north of the front. Will bring a slight
chance into the northern counties after midnight and then
increase to low chance pops extreme north towards dawn. Saturday
GLFMX moisture will begin to get pulled north through the
Mississippi Valley ahead of the low in Missouri. Looking at the
NAM and GFS this deeper moisture doesnt quite reach into the
area however it will be just to our west and south by 00Z
Sunday. Still, enough moisture in the deep southerly flow to
expect scattered showers. The nam also brings 500 j/kg of cape
into the western counties during the afternoon. Best chances
will be west so will have likely pops there and chance pops
elsewhere. Will also have a chance of thunder where pops are
likely. No big changes for the rest of the period. Saturday
night and Sunday look wet as the Gulf moisture gets wrapped
across the area. Sunday night the low weakens and the moisture
begins moving northeast out of the area. Forcing is minimal so
will continue lowering pops through the night west to east.
Monday will still keep chance pops in place as low pressure
moves across southern Missouri. Temps on the mild side.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Extended pattern continues to be in a state of flux with fairly
rapid transitions between shortwave troughs and minor ridging taking
place. This means overall weather pattern will be fluctuating
between dry periods and wet periods.  Polar jet stream is progged to
remain north of the area keeping any arctic air masses from pushing
south into the forecast area for the foreseeable future.

First in a series of upper level trough/ridge pairs moves east into
the area Tuesday. This trough will develop a weak positive vorticity
maximum and result in a weak surface low pressure system that will
move east across the Ohio valley region. Limited moisture with the
features will move east across the forecast area as well on Tuesday.
Hence, will keep a mention of showers in the forecast during the day
pulling out to the east Tuesday night as the upper level and surface
ridge builds east.

Upper level ridge amplifies Wednesday and Thursday helping to build
surface ridge over the area.  Then, by Thursday, next trough diving
southeast out of the northern Rockies evolves into a potent upper
level low pressure system that becomes vertically stacked over
Arkansas.  Once the low pressure system rounds the base of the mean
trough, it lifts northeast toward the area to bring more rain to the
area by Friday.

As mentioned, temperatures should remain mild through the forecast
period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
A warm front will lift north of the area this morning. Ceilings
should remain VFR through the duration of the day. Main issue
will be wind shear between 1500 and 2000 feet and winds
increase to 45 to 50 knots along the warm front. Once warm front
lifts north, stronger winds will mix down to the surface ending
threat for wind shear this morning. We should see improving
ceilings to 25000 feet this afternoon. Then, Another shot of
low level moisture will push east over the area tonight dropping
ceilings down to around 2500 feet; except 1500 feet possibly at
Erie. Winds will diminish tonight.

OUTLOOK...Areas of non-VFR Saturday and Sunday. Non VFR
possible again Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Warm front has lifted north of the lake this morning. Mixing has
already produced wind gusts around 30 knots which will be on and off
again through the day. The more stable/colder air over the lake will
keep these as gusts with sustained winds 10 to 20 knots. Due to the
strong gusts have hoisted as SCA for all waters. The short fetch in
the nearshore should keep heights lower at the shoreline and a mile
or two out, however after that could easily see some 3 to 5 footers.
The mixing should settle down tonight with improved conditions
briefly before winds pick back up on Saturday. Will reassess the
headlines this afternoon. Northeast flow develops Saturday and will
likely need a small craft advisory headline by Saturday morning
continuing into Sunday morning. Warm front lifts back north Sunday
allowing winds to diminish once again. Generally light and variable
winds Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ145>149.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ142>144.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/Kubina
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Lombardy



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