Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 290131
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
931 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL
DRIFT EAST TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK EAST
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE CENTRAL LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARM AIR ADVECTION MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MUCH OF THE NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHICH
MEANS LOW TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF
NIGHTS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 60S
IN THE WEST SO FORECAST LOWS SEEM REASONABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IOWA THIS EVENING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY MODELS TAKE THE LOW TO MO ALTHOUGH
MANUAL PROGS TAKE A WAVE INTO NRN IL WITH A WARM FRONT INTO
WESTERN OHIO. THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. THROUGH THE DAY THE UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS EAST BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA FROM THE THUMB OF MI SSW INTO THE MS VLY.
MEANWHILE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE GULF COAST STATES. AS A RESULT
MODELS SHOW AN INCREASING THREAT OF CONVECTION FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WEST OF ROUGHLY NORWALK TO FINDLAY LINE. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY THE NAM12 SHOWS THE WEAK COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NWRN OHIO.
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SMALL LIKELY POP AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS WITH SYSTEM STALLED IN
THE AREA. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH NOSES IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPS IN THE
LOWER AND MID 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SITUATION STILL LOOKS LIKE
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND ONLY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION AT
MOST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN AND GRADUALLY LOWER AHEAD OF
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 5 KNOTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST...THEN VEERING TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AT 5-10
KNOTS. DID BRING A LAKE BREEZE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT
TOL/CLE/ERI SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
ITS DEVELOPMENT. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AT TOL/FDY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND/OR SUNDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL TEND TO STAY 10 KNOTS OR LESS THRU WED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STAYS IN CONTROL.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KEC/SEFCOVIC
MARINE...ADAMS


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