Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 211609
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1209 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS STATES WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST. A WEAK
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BRUSH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL BE OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY THEN
MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA BY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THICKER MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS DEVELOPING ACROSS NW OH/NE IN/SRN
MI WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. HAVE TWEAKED SKY COVERAGE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. BREAK OUT TO SUN MORE LIKELY TOWARD
SUNSET FOR NW OH. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS OUT THAT WAY TOO WITH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD OF CLOUDS. NO EXPECTING ANY PRECIP WITH THIS
TROUGH PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A
SHOWER AND CAME UP WITH "SLIGHT CHANCE" POPS. ENOUGH OF A BREEZE
TONIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING
OUT. LOWS IN THE 40S.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING SHOULD INCREASE AND WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ALTHOUGH WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC FOR
NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA WHERE THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND CYCLONIC
FLOW MAY CAUSE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO LINGER. HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 60S NW OH TO THE LOWER 50S NW PA.

A LARGE AREA OF CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL INCLUDE FROST FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
COLDER SPOTS MAY WELL BOTTOM OUT AROUND FREEZING SO IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT A FREEZE WATCH/WARNING MAY BE NECESSARY. AT THE VERY LEAST...A
FROST ADVISORY. PREFER TO SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS FOR A TRUE FREEZE AND WILL HOLD OFF ON A
FREEZE WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING.

WILL LIKELY START TO SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS SATURDAY BUT WE SHOULD
STILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR
NORMAL. WORRIED ABOUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ON SUNDAY AS
STRONG WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST AND NORTH. I
DOUBT THERE WOULD BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS ALTHOUGH WE CAN
SOMETIMES GET SOME SHOWERS SPILLING OVER IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. PROBABLY NOT A SIGNIFICANT RISK OF THUNDER UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE LOWER LAYERS WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY AND STABLE ON SUNDAY
UNTIL IT MOISTENS UP. TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY ON SUNDAY. THE
AIR MASS CAN SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 70S PERHAPS 80 BUT WILL NOT GO
QUITE THAT WARM GIVEN THE CONCERNS FOR CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM AND ACTIVE PATTERN WILL RETURN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY DAY TIME FRAME. SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS DECREASING AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH. HARD TO DETERMINE WHERE
EXACTLY THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED THIS FAR OUT BUT THE GFS/GEM
ACTUALLY HAVE IT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. WARM FRONTS
TEND TO GET HELD UP IN THE VICINITY OF LAKE ERIE THIS TIME OF YEAR
SO WILL KEEP A LITTLE HIGHER POP GOING IN THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS ON
MONDAY. AFTER THAT WE WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH A STEADY
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF SETTING UP FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
GFS HAS PW VALUES UP BETWEEN 1.5-1.75 INCHES THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING OVERHEAD TO KICK OFF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL
DEPEND ON COVERAGE OF CLOUD COVER SO KEPT VALUES CONSERVATIVE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS A MID CLOUD DECK
BETWEEN 5-12K WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT MOST SITES TODAY WILL BACK TO WEST SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS SHIFTING BACK
TO NORTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST TODAY AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS TONIGHT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE
ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 15-20
KNOTS ON THE EAST END. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE
FOR FRIDAY EVENING BUT AT THIS TIME ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE LAKE ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SETTING UP FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC





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