Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 222357
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
657 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
A RELATIVELY WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA INTO MONDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY SENDING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...

CONTINUING TO SEE A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP WITHIN THE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW. RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHEAST
SHORELINE AND UP TOWARDS ERIE PA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN.
OTHERWISE...WE CONTINUE TO WATCH ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE
STREAMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 18Z
NAM HAS TRENDED UPWARD WITH QPF ACROSS NW OHIO LATE TONIGHT AND IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. HRRR ALSO PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS ARRIVING AROUND 08Z SO RAISED POPS IN NW OHIO
LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES IN NW OHIO ARE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...MAINLY TRENDING HIGHER THROUGH THE EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A LEAD SHORT WAVE STREAKING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST LATER TONIGHT
WHICH WILL LIKELY CLIP NORTHWEST OHIO LATER TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
JUST A FEW SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION
AND A NICE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUE.

THE AIR MASS IS SO WARM TO OUR SOUTH THAT I DOUBT WE WILL SEE MUCH
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IS THAT LOWER DEW POINT AIR IS STREAMING NORTHEAST AND
SHOULD AFFECT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEASTERN OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY
DROP A FEW DEGREES IN THIS AREA. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS MAY
TRACK ACROSS NE OH/NW PA TONIGHT. NIGHTS ARE LONG AND GIVEN ANY
CHANCE WE WILL GET SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND. LOWS IN THE MID 30S IN THESE
AREAS WITH 40S ELSEWHERE.

SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP TONIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH DOWN SLOPE AREAS...IN PARTICULAR THE EAST
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND THROUGH ERIE COUNTY PA WHERE GUSTS OF
30-35 STILL LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS FOR A WHILE SUNDAY. A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SHOULD
BE EXITING ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OUT
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...PROBABLY SPREADING
NORTH TO ABOUT THE TURNPIKE BY DARK. THE RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
GUIDANCE BASED ON UPSTREAM TEMPS WITH HIGHS WELL IN THE 50S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT...WHETHER IT
WILL BE A LINE OF SHOWERS OR SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME CONCERN FOR
WIND ON MONDAY. THE SYNOPTIC WIND WILL PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. THERE COULD BE CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF WE CAN GET A LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY...IN THE 50S UNTIL THE
FRONT GOES THROUGH...THEN TEMPS SHOULD START TO DROP OFF. THE AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS SEASONABLY COLD. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT NEAR
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH COASTAL LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
WITH A RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA.  MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.  CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA AND KICKING OFF A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW.
ECMWF MOVES THE SNOW INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL THANKSGIVING DAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDED TOWARD
THE GFS SO WITH SO WENT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELY POPS
ON THANKSGIVING.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BEHIND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE WARM SECTOR
FOR EARLY TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL HAVE MVFR CONDITIONS.
ALL MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE OF SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT. THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON THE CURRENT RADAR WITH SOME SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY BE MVFR IN THOSE
SHOWERS. A DRY SLOT FOR LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
VFR OR BARELY MVFR CEILINGS AND THEN MORE SHOWERS MOVING INTO NW
OHIO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST IN THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE WEST END OF THE LAKE AS
THE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 20 KNOTS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ON THE EAST HALF OF THE
LAKE.   MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE ON
MONDAY.  THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AS A DEEPENING LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES.  GFS IS DEEPER WITH LOW AND THUS ALSO HAS THE HIGHER WINDS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...DJB







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.