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000
FXUS61 KCLE 281729
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1229 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OHIO WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST TO
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK BY THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD EAST OVER THE REGION MONDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO TEMPERATURE AND SKY GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE BUCKEYE STATE THIS
MORNING. THIS HAS KEPT SKIES MAINLY CLEAR WITH JUST A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. ONCE AGAIN TEMPS HAVE PLUMMETED SO WILL GET OFF TO A VERY
CHILLY START THIS MORNING. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED
TODAY SO MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE LOWER 20S BY SUNSET.
THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS ARE THAT WE WILL END UP GOING WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WYANDOT COUNTY TO
ERIE COUNTY PA. THIS REGION SHOULD SEE AT LEAST 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES FROM KNOX COUNTY TO TRUMBULL
COUNTY. SINCE THIS LOOKS TO BE A LONGER THAN 12 HOUR DURATION THE
AREA WOULD NEED TO RECEIVE GREAT THAN 8 INCHES OF SNOW TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA AND LATEST MODEL RUNS DO NOT SUPPORT THIS.

ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HAVE DONE A LOT OF FINE TUNING TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
FORECAST PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE CLEARER. WILL HAVE TWO POTENT
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH THIS PERIOD. FORTUNATELY THE 00Z MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT TODAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH
WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP WITH THE FIRST STORM. SNOW IS STILL
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO WESTERN AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE HELPED ALONG BY A 150 KNOT UPPER JET SO ONCE THE SNOW STARTS IT
SHOULD SPREAD QUICKLY. IT NO LONGER LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA WILL SEE WARNING AMOUNTS AND HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
CANCELED THE WATCH. LOCATIONS LIKE TOLEDO MAY NOT EVEN SEE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THIS EVENT. LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE U.S. 30 CORRIDOR REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AND EXPECT A GOOD 6
INCHES OF SNOW IN THAT AREA. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS TEMPS COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRANSITION AT THIS TIME.
THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING THE IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM WILL NOT BE AS BAD AS
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE SNOW TO QUICKLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE A COLD DAY
WITH CLOUDS AGAIN INCREASING. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SLOWER BRINGING PRECIP IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB ALL MONDAY NIGHT BUT STILL THINK THE PRECIP TUESDAY
WILL START AS SNOW OR POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF SLOWLY WARMING TEMPS ON TUESDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE ALL RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A TRANSITION BACK TO
WINTRY PRECIP IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRECIP WINDS DOWN. OF
THE TWO SYSTEMS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD THE SECOND ONE WILL BE
THE MORE VIGOROUS WITH STRONG MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT DUE ON WEDNESDAY...ONLY QUESTION IS THE TIMING.
THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE COLDER AIR THAN THE ECMWF.  TRENDED
TOWARD THE FASTER AND COOLER GFS...AND KEPT ALL PRECIP SNOW ON
WEDNESDAY.  EITHER WAY THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO -20C BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  ONLY GOOD NOTE IS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY AS
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EASTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING
AND WILL LIKELY NOT REACH MVFR LEVELS UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS. AFTER
THE HEAVIER SNOWS WILL ARRIVE WITH IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED.
THESE WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE SNOWFALL RATES
SHOULD REACH 1/2 INCH PER HOUR MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM MARION TO MEADVILLE. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A 5 TO 9 HOUR WINDOW
AT EACH TAF SITE. LESS TIME ACROSS NW OHIO. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT IMPROVING FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. NON-VFR AGAIN ON TUESDAY THEN CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING.  WINDS TURN TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS LAKE ERIE SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR LATER
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH.  QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN THE NEXT ARCTIC
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ013-014-020>023-031>033-038-089.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ017-027>030-036-037-047.
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR PAZ001>003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...DJB