Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 140230

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
930 PM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

High pressure will build into the area tonight from the upper
Midwest. The high will move quickly eastward to New England by
Sunday evening. This will allow a clipper storm system to move
across the region on Monday then an upper level trough passing
Tuesday night. High pressure will then ridge into the central
Great Lakes from the Tennessee River Valley on Thursday.


Update...Models show the moisture connection to Lake Michigan
ending overnight so eventually clouds should begin to break
west. Flow off Lake Erie continues in direction but weakens so
anticipate clouds dissipating away from the lake. But, while
there are breaks, clearing not occurring as fast as hoped so
will continue with the clouds much of the night with clearing
more towards morning.

The remaining lake effect snow showers will continue
to decrease in coverage through the overnight. This as high
pressure takes control and the drier air eats away at it. Still
could be a few locations that pick up a half an inch to an inch
across NE OH into NW PA. High pressure will dominate the area on
SUnday but it will be short lived as it moves to New England
Sunday night. This will allow the cloud cover from the next
clipper storm system to flow over the region beginning Sunday

Very cold air has returned with most locations in the single
digits overnight. Any location that experiences a period of
clear skies will have a chance to dip below zero. Continued
cold Sunday with highs in the teens. The amount of cloud cover
will dictate lows Sunday night with teens west and single digits


The next lobe of the polar vortex will rotate SE to near Lake Erie
by Tue night before starting to weaken and shift off to the east on
Wed. This upper feature will induce a surface clipper type low to
work east across the area Mon into Mon night then be followed by a
reinforcing push of arctic air for Tue into Wed. The result should
be fairly widespread light to moderate snow of about 1 to 3 inches
Mon into Mon night followed by sct lake effect snow showers for the
snowbelt Tue into Wed.

Mon will be the relatively warmer day with highs in the 20s then
only teens for Tue and Wed.


The large trough that will have been in place for several days will
finally begin to move east of the area Wednesday night into
Thursday. As this happens an upper-level ridge will begin to move in
from the west along with a large area of high pressure at the
surface. This will quickly bring an end to any ongoing lake-effect
snow showers across northwest Pennsylvania Wednesday night.

Thursday and Friday look to be dry as high pressure brings
southwesterly winds to the area. Temperatures Wednesday night will
be cold with lows in the single digits. A slight warming trend is
expected Thursday into Friday with highs finally moderating to
just above freezing by Friday afternoon.

Zonal flow will dominate Friday night into Saturday with the next
wave of low pressure starting to approach the area from the west
later Saturday. Most precipitation should stay off to the west of
the area Saturday, but will include a slight chance in the forecast
across western and northern areas for a few warm air advection
showers. Temperatures look to be in the lower 40s, so would expect
any precipitation Saturday to be in the form of rain.


.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Only light snow showers remain mainly east of KCLE this evening
and as drier air moves in overnight these too should dry up. Low
VFR cigs are spread across the area however as winds aloft
decrease early tonight am expecting the clouds...which are
mainly off the begin to dissipate away from the
lakeshore. High pressure builds in Sunday. Expect VFR conditions
with partly cloudy skies. Late afternoon/early evening however
should begin to see a mid/upper level increase in clouds ahead
of the next approaching clipper system due in Sunday night and

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR late sunday night west...and area wide Monday
into Monday night in snow. Non-VFR should then persist into
Wednesday in snow showers across NE OH/NW PA.


NW winds will diminish tonight and become SW for Sun. A clipper type
low will move east near the lake Mon into Mon night leading to
changeable winds, mostly 15 knots or less that will turn to
mainly the west for Tue, Wed and Thu.




LONG TERM...Mottice
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