Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 300705

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
304 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

Low pressure near Cincinnati will slowly move north into lower
Michigan by Sunday then shift off to the northeast Monday. High
pressure will shift east across the region Tuesday into Wednesday
then a cold front will move into the area later Thursday into Friday.


With little movement in the weather pattern there will be little
change in today`s weather from yesterday. Will stay with good chance
pops for shra and some tsra today with better threat generally
shifting toward the west half of the cwa. With lack of strong
convection potential...heavy rainfall threat limited which should
limit flooding threat.

Highs today will only rise about 5 to 10 degrees with most places
seeing mid to upper 60s.


The upper and surface low finally starts moving slowly north tonight
thru Sat and should be near dtw by Sun morning. A wedge of slightly
drier air is pulled north into the area tonight into Sat morning
which should lessen the coverage of shra for a while but then
daytime heating by Sat afternoon is expected to cause more numerous
shra and some tsra to redevelop. The models differ on how much
activity lingers Sat night which brings more uncertainty into the

The upper forcing still appears too strong on Sun to not end up with
numerous shra/possible tsra so will increase pops Sun into Sun
night. There is still some upper energy present in the ne on Mon for
at least a chc for shra...aided by enhancement from lake erie. Will
introduce slight chc pops for nw pa the first half Mon night but
after that dry conditions should finally take control.

Day to day temps will show little change thru Monday. Monday night
should be the coolest night as skies begin to clear with lows from
the upper 40s to lower 50s.


High pressure looks to be ridging into the area from Eastern Canada
on Tuesday but will slide of the New England coast on Tuesday. This
will allow a southeast to south wind to develop ahead of the next
cold front that will approach the area from the Plains. The eastward
movement of this front may be impacted by a hurricane that may be
moving up the East Coast of the US Thursday into Friday. So
naturally the models are struggling with the strength and timing of
the front into the area. Have added slight chance to chance pops for
Thursday into Thursday night but confidence is low.

Temperatures will be above seasonal averages through the long term.
Highs should be in the lower to middle 70s.


.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Areas of rain will continue to rotate around an upper level low
that is centered over KY. MVFR ceilings were occurring at most
locations with some patchy IFR near some of the heavier pockets of
rainfall. Believe the downslope flow will make it difficult for
widespread IFR conditions near and east of a KCLE to KCAK line.
West of that line IFR ceilings should develop and persist into
mid morning.

Today will see similar conditions to yesterday with fairly
widespread MVFR conditions. There will be patchy IFR with the
heavier pockets of rain or isolated thunderstorms.

Easterly winds are expected through the day. Will continue to
monitor for some low level wind shear at KCAK, KYNG and maybe at
KCLE. Area VWP displays dont support this at this time but a
couple models think it is possible. Winds will become gusty again
across the east this afternoon but 20 to 25 knots should cover it.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in rain and low ceilings into Monday.


Easterly winds remain high enough this morning to leave the Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) up for the entire lakeshore. Winds still look
like they will decrease by the afternoon. A little uncertainty if
the 10am end across the east is too early. Will let the next shift
take another look and extend if needed. Winds and waves wont
decrease on the west end until evening at the earliest.

As the upper level low drifts back to the north it will allow the
pressure gradient to relax. Winds will also shift to a southerly
direction at some point on Saturday. As the low reaches NY state on
Sunday winds should shift to the southwest. High pressure begins to
ridge onto the lake from Canada on Monday with a northerly wind


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for


LONG TERM...Mullen
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