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000
FXUS61 KCLE 182344
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT AND SHIFT TOWARDS
NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. A LOW AND IT ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A
RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST TO
ALIGN TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER WITH THE SHORT TERM
TRENDS. NO OTHER CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED BEHIND THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROF ALOFT. THE SHOWERS THREAT WILL END
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE. A RIDGE
WILL BE BUILDING IN LATE TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE
AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN IT WILL WEAKEN AS A FRONT
HEADS TOWARDS THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING. THE FRONT WILL BE IN EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AROUND
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME KEPT IT JUST CHANCE OF THUNDER AS A
LOT OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AIRMASS WILL BE STABLE.

SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WENT TOWARD THE
WARMER GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR TUESDAY SHOWERS WILL BE TAPERING OFF IN THE AM AND THEN MORE
SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS ADVERTISING THE 850MB COLD POOL SETTLING SOUTH OVER NE
OHIO/NW PA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
SEVERAL DEGREES WITH THE NORTHERLY FLOW OFF THE LAKE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE LAKESHORE. EXPECTING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE
MORNING...STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AS SUBSIDENCE INCREASES WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA. THIS COOL SNAP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED WITH A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN ALREADY BY
THURSDAY. CONSIDERABLE WARM ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH ALL
LOCATIONS SEEING WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE
EVENING. A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE ERIE WILL ATTEMPT TO
GENERATE A FEW STRATO-CUMULUS FOR A FEW HOURS. IF THEY DEVELOP IT
WILL BE FROM AROUND 05Z THROUGH MAYBE 11Z. THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEEING MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE AND ACROSS
INLAND NE OHIO AND NW PA. THE MVFR CEILING SHOULD NOT LAST MORE
THAN 2 TO 5 HOURS AT ANY LOCATION. WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL SWING
AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE DAY. THERE
MAY BE A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 18 KNOTS ALONG THE LAKESHORE
LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH WAVES BUILDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW WEST OF CLEVELAND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY THEN TO THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS WILL DEVELOP OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING
FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC