Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 211125
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
725 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 7 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM ABOUT DTW-LAF BUT WAS
QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD. BOTH THE COLD FRONT AND DRIER AIR HAS
ACCELERATED EASTWARD AS THE STRONG UPPER JET MOVES THROUGH THE
TROUGH ALOFT. AN AREA OF SHOWERS REMAIN IN NE OHIO/NW PA AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT THIS MORNING BUT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON WHEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL ARRIVES FROM THE NORTH.
ADJUSTED POPS TO BE FAIRLY LOW FOR THE MORNING HOURS WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY FASTER FRONTAL TIMING
DOES ALLOW THE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT TO ARRIVE A LITTLE
SOONER AS WELL SO THIS MAY REDUCE CHANCES FOR STRONGER CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE IS STARTING OFF OVER LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING WITH
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS ILLINOIS.
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF A
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT A WELL PRONOUNCED DRY-SLOT CAN BE SEEN APPROACHING LAKE
MICHIGAN WHICH ALIGNS WITH THE LOCATION OF A 120 KNOT UPPER LEVEL
JET MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY
REVOLVES AROUND TIMING AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS TO THE EAST.

A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR CLEVELAND
SOUTHWEST TO INDIANAPOLIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN MICHIGAN. THE GFS IS AGGRESSIVE AT
TRYING TO CLEAR CLOUDS OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS HOWEVER ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE
NAM/RUC WHICH SHOW AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON MIXING
AND DEWPOINTS TODAY. IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE GOING TO HOLD ONTO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES...ALTHOUGH WITH POSSIBLY A FEW BREAKS SNEAKING INTO
SOUTHERN AREAS. DEWPOINTS WILL START TO DECREASE BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MODERATE
INSTABILITY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON IN NE
OH/NW PA. THE FAIRLY COMPACT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS
THE AREA BETWEEN 18-00Z TODAY WITH STRONG UPWARD MOMENTUM LEADING
TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHER COVERAGE
WILL BE ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND INTO NE OHIO/NW PA.

THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER STILL HAS ABOUT A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND INTO NE OHIO/NW PA
WHERE THIS STRONG ASCENT WILL INTERACT WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED
INSTABILITY. STORMS WILL MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY GIVEN THE PROGRESSION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SEVERE WINDS
OR HAIL...MAINLY BETWEEN 3-7 PM. NAM SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY
GOOD LOW LEVEL CAPE DENSITY AND BULK SHEER WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF
60 KNOTS SO ANY DECENT STORM WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WE ARE A BIT MORE CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE CHANCES ON SUNDAY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MEADVILLE TO MARION. THIS IS THE
REGION THAT WILL BE THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THE REGION WILL HAVE INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH WITH COLDER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE
IT WILL MEAN SOME LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL MAINLY
BE LOCATED FROM THE CENTRAL LAKESHORE REGION EASTWARD INTO NW PA.
THESE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS NW PA. THE
ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM WITH MOST
LOCATIONS STILL IN THE 70S...MIDDLE TO MAYBE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. MONDAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
50S. SLIGHTLY WARMER ON TUESDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE. SOME PRECIPITATION MAY GET
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY NEAR THE OHIO RIVER BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT
THE FORECAST AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERNIGHT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY MID MORNING. A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NW
OHIO WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A STRONG UPPER
TROF WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CAUSING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS. THE
STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDS ON HOW UNSTABLE IT CAN GET.

MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING...CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR
THIS AFTERNOON AND BACK TO MVFR TONIGHT. IN PRECIPITATION CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MVFR OR LESS.

SOME OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT IFR CEILING FOR EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY OVER NW OH. IF IT DOES OCCUR IT SHOULD BE BRIEF.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR LINGERING OVER NE OH/NW PA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
ACTIVE WEATHER ON THE LAKE THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING ACROSS THE LAKE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN A STRONG TROF
ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PROMPT SPECIAL MARINE
WARNINGS...BOATERS NEED TO BE AWARE OF THIS THREAT.

THE WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
STARTED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND RIP CURRENT THREAT BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS EVENING AND INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY. WINDS AND WAVES WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...THUS ENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF
MONDAY. WITH PLENTY OF COLD AIR MOVING IN WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.


HIGH PRESSURE OR A RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON THE
LAKE THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 3 PM EDT
     MONDAY FOR LEZ146>149.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EDT
     MONDAY FOR LEZ142>145.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...KIELTYKA





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