Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 240500

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
100 AM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

A broad trough across the lower Great Lakes will linger into
Monday afternoon. High pressure will then be able to build
across the region and bring lower humidity for the first part of
the work week. The next cold front will move northwest to
southeast across the area on Thursday.


The cold front and upper trough are now combining to produce a band
of sct shra/tsra over leri that will push se into the snowbelt over
the next few hours. The front may also trigger a few shra/tsra in
other places as it slowly pushes se across the CWA thru this morning.

Less humid air will begin moving into the region Monday morning and
afternoon mixing will help lower dewpoints to near 60.

Highs tomorrow afternoon will reach the upper 70s. High pressure
starts moving in from the west Monday night and will set the
stage for dry weather with continued lower humidity.


Cooler conditions in the wake of another front will be in place on
Tuesday with high pressure building in from the north. Wrap around
moisture and diurnal heating will keep skies in the east partly
cloudy with highs only reaching the low to mid 70s. Western areas
will not cool as much and will experience more sun so highs closer
to 80 are likely.

Surface high pressure builds overhead Tuesday night then southeast
on Wednesday. At same time a ridge will build aloft before being
suppressed by the next trough approaching the Great Lakes region.
Wednesday will trend warmer as the flow shifts around to the
southwest with temperatures rebounding back up to the lower and mid
80s. Delayed the next threat of showers and storms until late
Wednesday night into Thursday as the front slowly moves south into
the area. Moisture advection from the southwest with the front
sinking down from the north will provide a favorable opportunity for
showers and thunderstorms.


Surface stationary front still progged to settle in across the area
by Friday morning.  Surface low pressure is progged to move east
across the Tennessee Valley region to the Carolina coast by Saturday
night.  The storm system will have some pretty good moisture
associated with it but the bulk of the moisture is expected to remain
well south of the forecast area.  A weak area of high pressure will
build east across the area Saturday night into Sunday.  Warm air
advection ahead of the low pressure system will give way to some
cooler air as the low pressure moves southeast of the area and high
pressure builds in.


.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
A cold front near TOL will push se thru CAK and YNG thru the morning
with NW winds of 10 to 15 knots developing behind the front then
diminishing by late this evening. MVFR fog will likely form at the
inland locations the rest of the night. MVFR/Local IFR cigs should
also develop during the last few hours of the night into the first
few hours of daylight then gradually improve the rest of the day as
drier low level air spreads se across the area. ERI and possibly YNG
may not get above MVFR cig heights by the end of the day before cigs
start to lower again after dark.

There will be sct shra and isolated tsra for mainly the NE half of
the area thru today with possible isolated shra lingering near ERI
after dark.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR expected in the east late Mon night into Tue
morning. Non-VFR in thunderstorms with a cold front Thursday.


A weakly defined cold front across central lower Michigan will move
south across Lake Erie overnight with a secondary cold front pushing
south across the lake Monday night. Winds will increase to 10-15
knots out of the west northwest tonight. Winds will shift to the
north Monday evening and increase to 15-20 knots. Given the onshore
flow will be close to needing a Small Craft Advisory Monday night.

High pressure will build in from the north on Tuesday with winds
shifting to the northeast and gradually decreasing to 10 knots or
less late. Good marine conditions expected Wednesday with light
winds shifting around to the southwest. Another cold front will push
south across the lake Thursday night into Friday.




NEAR TERM...LaPlante/Adams
LONG TERM...Lombardy
MARINE...KEC/Lombardy is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.