Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 010546
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
146 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE LAKES WILL SPREAD SOUTH TO LAKE ERIE TONIGHT
THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND TAKE A STRONG COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. MAV SOUNDINGS DO SHOWS THIS WINDOW OF CLEARING BEFORE
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT. WILL HOLD ONTO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WE WILL
SEE SOME STRATUS RETURN OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS.
MANY SITES THAT HAVE CLEARED ALREADY HAVE 2-3 DEGREE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS SO WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE FOG FILLING IN
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 2 AM. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THE
DRIZZLE WITH THE RECENT DRYING TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND
AS THIS HAPPENS THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HANGING UP FROM NEAR ERIE
THROUGH YOUNGSTOWN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE AN INVERTED
TROF WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF CLE. AT THIS TIME WILL ONLY
MENTION THUNDER FOR NW PA FOR EARLY THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL
REMAIN CLOUDY ALL NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL
BE A COMBO OF FOG AND STRATUS. WILL MENTION AREAS OF FOG. THE NEXT
SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE THE FOG GETS.
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUDS WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF WILL BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEPT 20 POPS THROUGH NOON OR EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME DECREASE IN
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. THE MODELS ARE SLOWING
DOWN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PRECIPITATION THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGH POPS FOR FRIDAY AND THEN DECREASING THE
POPS QUICKLY FRIDAY EVENING. MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ESPECIALLY
WEST OF YOUNGSTOWN WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF BEING DRY AFTER
DARK FRIDAY EVENING.

SOME LOCATIONS FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON COULD ACCUMULATE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF OF RAIN.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WAY ABOVE NORMAL. THE
GROUND IS DRY SO THIS KIND OF RAINFALL SHOULD NOT CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING PROBLEMS.

THURSDAY WILL BE THE LAST WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
AWHILE. THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS TOO COOL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A PIECE OF THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER LAKES BY SAT
MORNING THEN RECENTER BACK CLOSER TO JAMES BAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
S/W`S AND TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE LAKES. EXPECT THE WEATHER TO STAY COOL AND UNSETTLED WITH
TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AND NEARLY DAILY THREATS FOR SHRA. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE SHRA THREAT BUT THIS FAR OUT THE FEATURES
ARE TOO SUBTLE FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE REAL WELL. WILL USE A BROAD
BRUSH APPROACH WITH CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NE AS LAKE EFFECT
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BUT PLENTY OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IFR STRATUS CEILING WILL DEVELOP IN MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH FOG...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE DENSE
(LIFR). THE FOG AND STRATUS WILL LIFT TO A MVFR STRATOCUMULUS
CEILING WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GRADUAL CLEARING DEVELOPING AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS OUT AND
THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR FRIDAY. NON VFR LIKELY SATURDAY NE OH/NW
PA...PERHAPS LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE WILL DECREASE THE WINDS
THRU MIDNIGHT THEN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED INTO THU
WINDS WILL VEER TO EAST THEN TO SOUTH. A LOW WILL MOVE NE THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE LAKES AND PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE
ERIE FRI. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN
TURN WEST FOR FRI NIGHT. WINDS MAY APPROACH 30 KNOTS SO SCA
ADVISORIES WILL BE PUT UP. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE BY SAT BUT
SCA WAVES SHOULD HANG ON THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KEC/KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...ADAMS





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