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000
FXUS61 KCLE 161042
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
542 AM EST MON DEC 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN LAKES EARLY TODAY BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND THEN MOVES
EAST TONIGHT. A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO THIS
MORNING AND ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED THE POPS FOR EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES
WITH THE IMPULSE JUST BRUSHING THAT AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
HAVE LITTLE SNOW ACCUMULATION...HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS COULD GET
HALF AN INCH. ELSEWHERE ADJUSTED POPS A LITTLE IN THE SNOW BELT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A LOT OF WEATHER GOING ON. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL BE BRUSHING THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE.
AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE JUST FLURRIES.

WE STILL HAVE HEADLINES OUT FOR ASHTABULA COUNTY AND NW PA FOR SOME
LAKE EFFECT. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE THEM WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS
CONTINUING.

THE HIGHS ARE TOUGH TODAY BECAUSE THE WARM ADVECTION DOESN`T REALLY
GET GOING UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST READINGS WILL OCCUR
AROUND DARK. WILL HAVE A MENTION OF SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON FOR NORTHWEST OHIO AHEAD OF THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST RAPIDLY AND END JUST AS FAST. WITH TEMPERATURES STILL ON
THE COLD SIDE THE LIQUID TO SNOW RATIO WILL BE AT LEAST 15 TO
1...SO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL. WENT WITH SOME 2 INCH
AMOUNTS AS WE WILL BE IN THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF THE 300 MB JET AND
WARM ADVECTION CAN BE POTENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY CAUSE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER NE OH AND NW PA. AN
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SNOW BELT. NOT EXPECTING EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS AS A RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING IN QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THAT WILL ALLOW A
WARMING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY. SOME RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THURSDAY MOST OF THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE NW OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH MOST PERIODS...USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR END OF WORK WEEK.  BOTH MODELS
MOVE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES FRIDAY DRAGGING ANOTHER
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.  ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE
TWO MODELS BOTH MODELS HAVE SURGE OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF FRONT GIVING
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE.  TEMPS WARM INTO THE 40S
WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTH COULD SEE 50.  FOR A CHANGE ALL
PRECIP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WILL BE RAIN.  THE WARM UP WILL BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.   BY SATURDAY HOWEVER THE MODELS DIVERGE.   ECMWF
MOVES FRONT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ON SUNDAY ECMWF MOVES
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS LOWER LAKES...WHILE GFS ONLY HAS
LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  FOR FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WILL JUST
LOWER POPS AND TREND TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER GFS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES HAVE PROGRESSED EAST AROUND THE
SOUTH END OF LAKE ERIE WEST OF CLE WHILE RATHER INTENSE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BANDS EXTENDED DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE ERIE AND CAME
ASHORE IN ASHTABULA AND ERIE COUNTIES THIS EVENING. THE SNOW BAND HAS
SAGGED SOUTH OF ERI NOW FOR THE MOST PART. EXPECT IFR VSBY AND
CIGS WITHIN THE BANDS WITH VSBY BELOW 1/2 MILE AND CIGS LESS THAN
1000 FT. ELSEWHERE VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. WINDS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE EXCEPT NEAR ERI WHERE HIGHER GUSTS ARE OCCURRING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE SNOW BAND. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
EXPECT THE SNOW BAND TO SAG TO THE SOUTH AND DECREASE IN
INTENSITY.


.OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVES OVER THE AREA.  HIGH SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING TURNING WINDS TO THE SOUTH.  ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
RIDGE ONTO THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE LAKE FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ014-089.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ003.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ001-002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...DJB