Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 241200

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
700 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

A warm front draped across the area will lift north of Lake Erie
this morning. Low pressure approaching Chicago will track
northeast towards Lake Huron by Saturday morning. This system
will pull a strong cold front east across the area tonight. A
ridge will build overhead on Sunday then shift to the east coast
on Monday.


Warm front starting to push back north with Cleveland jumping to
60 degrees last hour while TOL/ERI remain at 41 degrees.
Visibilities are dropping at TOL and could see a brief window of
patchy fog this morning before warm front arrives and
visibilities clear. Removed the early morning mention of
showers for all but extreme northeast portion of the area as
showers and thunderstorms over Lake Erie continue to move
northeast. Convection seen upstream near Chicago will track
northeast into Michigan this morning. Timing still looks on
track for another round of thunderstorms to develop in Indiana
towards mid afternoon as the front approaches.

Previous discussion...Surface warm front expected to push north
across Lake Erie this morning leaving the forecast area in the
warm sector. Southerly winds will be windy today with a 40 knot
low level jet overhead. Generally expecting winds of 15-20 mph
with gusts around 30-35 mph. Most areas will start off cloudy
this morning but a dry wedge of air near 850mb will nose in from
the southwest and scatter out the low clouds. Cu field expected
to thicken in the west towards late afternoon but not before
most if not all climate locations have broken records for the
day and possibly the month of February (see February records
below). Forecast highs are close to MET guidance which has been
out- performing the MAV for several days in this warm pattern.
GFS continues to hold onto cloudy conditions today and that is
not anticipated given the favorable low level mixing and very
dry air aloft. A cap will be in place aloft and is expected to
hold until this evening. Will introduce a low pop by around 4 PM
for the Toledo area which may get clipped by a leading storm or
two before the more widespread activity arrives closer to 7 or
8 PM.

All time record high temperatures for the month of February:

Locations   February Record     Date
Cleveland               74    2/26/2000
Toledo                  71    2/26/2000, 2/11/1999, and 2/26/1944
Mansfield               71    2/26/2000, 2/26/1944
Akron-Canton            72    2/26/2000
Youngstown              73    2/26/2000
Erie 75    2/26/2000


Ingredients still coming together to suggest severe thunderstorms
are possible this evening. Main focus remains across the western
portion of the forecast area where the Storm Prediction Center has
highlighted an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms. Low pressure
over Illinois will move northeast across southern lower Michigan
this evening. This will occur in advance of considerable height
falls aloft associated with a neutrally oriented upper level trough
that takes on a slightly negative tilt by morning as it curls
towards Lake Michigan. We will be monitoring upstream radar and
satellite trends across Indiana this afternoon for signs of
convective initiation with the expectation for the atmosphere
to remain capped above 850mb until late afternoon. Elevated
mixed layer advects in from the west and convection is not
expected to develop until late afternoon when forcing ramps up
as an 85 knot jet at 500mb lifts northeast across Indiana into
Michigan. A few discrete cells appear likely across northwest
Ohio with fast storm motion towards Lake Erie at around 50 mph.
These discrete cells will need to be monitored for rotation and
will also contain a wind and hail threat. ML CAPE are forecast
to be in the 500-1000 J/kg range this evening but there is some
concern that dewpoints will start off a little lower than
expected given the strong mixing this afternoon. Available CAPE
is then forecast to drop off considerably between 03-06Z. Storm
motion will transition to more of a broken line east of the
I-75 corridor late this evening. At this point storm mode will
favor strong damaging winds with marginally severe hail. Not
sure how fast the boundary layer will stabilize given the warm
southerly winds but do expect a downward trend in intensity
towards midnight and into the overnight hours. Severe storms
will remain possible beyond that time as any of the stronger
cells may have downdrafts capable of punching through whatever
shallow stable layer that tries to develop. This will largely
depend on the strength of the convection at that point.
Instability and time of arrival will be the limiting factors as
we head into tonight.

Showers will linger in Pennsylvania into Saturday morning
before departing to the east. Strong cold advection will bring
falling temperatures during the day on Saturday. This will be
accompanied by another windy day with southwest winds gusting to
30-35 mph again. Airmass dries out on Saturday with just a few
showers focused across NE Ohio/NW PA. Whatever lingering
precipitation will transition to snow by Saturday night with
some lake effect developing off Lake Erie Saturday night. Have
included some minor accumulations for the higher areas of NW PA.
Moisture depth decreases into Sunday morning with the flow
starting to back as a ridge build in. Accumulating snow should
come to an end during the morning.


The main upper trough is still on track to shift from the rockies
into the lakes during the period. This will induce a deepening
surface low to move from kansas monday night ne across michigan
early wed pulling an arctic cold front across the region. A clipper
low is shown to drop ese near lake erie thu eve. Will stay with
superblend chc pops into tue increasing to likely or better for tue
night into wed with the cold front and upper trough then backing
down to mostly chc pops for wed night and thu with emphasis on
snowbelt for lake enhanced shsn.

Temps should warm enough so a lot of the precip should change from
snow to rain by mon afternoon with a mixture possible in the north
mon night then even warmer temps for tue should mean just rain from
late morning on until wed eve when enough colder air looks to arrive
to start changing the precip to snow.


.AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Warm front will lift north of the area this morning which should
push push sct shra/tsra off to the north along with mvfr/local ifr
conditions. Expecting sct-bkn vfr level cu field with cirrus on top
for the afternoon while winds from the s to ssw increase to 10 to 20
knots with gusts of 25 to 30 knots. Winds will settle down some into
nightfall then turn wsw with passage of a cold front tonight. A band
of shra/tsra will occur with the frontal passage which could produce
winds gusting 40 to 50 knots and brief ifr conditions...especially
in the west half where the storms are expected to be stronger.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR across mainly the snowbelt by later Sat into
Sunday. Areas on non-vfr Mon and Tue.


The warm air moving out over the cold lake should keep winds and
waves below sca criteria until sat when the colder air arrives with
winds turning from sw to more west and increasing to 20 to 30 knots.
High pressure moves up the oh valley sat night and sun which will
diminish the winds some and cause a backing to sw. Winds will
diminish further on monday and back to sse for tue.




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