Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 292206

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
606 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

High pressure north of Lake Erie will shift to New England on
Thursday. Low pressure will approach from the southern Plains on
Thursday and drift east across Lake Erie on Friday. This system will
move off the east coast Saturday with high pressure expanding across
the local area for the weekend.


High pressure located north of the area will shift to New England
overnight. Upper level ridge remains overhead. Expect to see high
cloud cover spread east over the cwa followed by mid level clouds so
the cwa should be cloudy west to mostly cloudy east by the end of
the night. Low levels are dry which will make it difficult for the
shra west of the area to make it into the western counties until
after midnight. For better collaboration, will increase pops for the
end of the night.

Lows will range from the lower 30s in NW PA to near 40 in the
southwestern counties.


Deep upper level trough over the Plains will lift into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley on Thursday then across Central Ohio on Friday. At
the surface, a warm front will lift north into the area on Thursday
with the typical delays expected near Lake Erie. Kept
temperatures in the 40s at Toledo with the front not lifting
north of the Lake until Friday. Moisture advection will ramp up
across the area on Thursday and expect a leading band of showers
to lift northeast across the area from mid-morning through late
afternoon. Better chances of rain and increasing chances of
thunderstorms will arrive from the west late in the day with the
approach of a 500mb jet streak. Widespread rain with scattered
thunderstorms expected Thursday night but will have to monitor
to see what role robust convection plays that will develop upstream
across the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley.

Surface low will move into northwest Ohio on Friday morning.
Some breaks will start to develop in the showers as drier air
gets wrapped into the system. Diurnally enhanced showers will
likely fill back in during the afternoon. As the low pulls away
to the east, northerly flow will pull the cold front south
behind it with cooler air returning Friday night and Saturday.
QPF on Thursday and Friday is expected to range from three
quarters of an inch to an inch and a quarter unless moisture
transport gets disrupted by the upstream convection. The
moisture depth becomes shallow by Saturday morning with clouds
scattering out from the north as high pressure builds in.


Overall upper level pattern still progressive with time.  Models
suggest periods of ridging with troughiness moving east across the
lower 48. However, deep trough digging into the Pacific northwest
will cause amplification of the ridge in the eastern United States
by mid week.

The forecast area will see transitioning periods of waves of low
pressure alternated with areas of high pressure. So, the current
pattern continues through the early and middle part of next week.

This pattern will still keep the polar jet stream well north of the
area keeping the arctic cold air out of the forecast area for the
time being.  Some hints indicate a brief shot of cold air by the end
of the week.

Surface high pressure will exit to the east on Sunday allowing a
southern stream low pressure system to move northeast toward the
area. This system will initially have limited moisture associated
with it but will eventually tap into some gulf moisture by Monday
night and force it north into the area.  The low will track east
into the Carolinas by Tuesday allowing high pressure to build in
from the north. The high will push east to the mid atlantic coast as
yet another storm system with limited moisture begins to approach
from the west on Wednesday.


.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
One fair weather day giving way to another round of inclement
weather over the next 24 hours. High pressure over the local
area will move east and allow low pressure to move into the
region. Expecting lowering ceilings and visibilities along with
some rain shower activity to move into the area west to east.
Best chance for weather will be in the west during the late
morning tomorrow. Lower chances will be in the east. Ceilings
will drop to IFR/MVFR west by morning. Otherwise, expecting
mostly VFR over the east through this TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR continuing into Friday. Non-VFR possible
Sunday night into Monday.


Winds on the lake will be increasing from the east northeast and it
appears waves will be high enough for the western basin to support
small craft advisory criteria.  So, will hoist a small advisory for
the western 2 lake nearshore zones from 2 AM tonight through 5 PM on
Thursday.  For the rest of the marine nearshore, winds should be
just offshore to prevent waves from reaching 4 feet. So, will not
issue an advisory for this area.  Otherwise, winds are expected to
be fairly light through the rest of the forecast period except
Monday. Winds will increase out of the east-northeast Monday and
will likely need another small craft advisory then. &&

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ142-


LONG TERM...Lombardy
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