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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221930
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
330 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN ON THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT US OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE CUMULUS OVER THE AREA WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AND THEN CLOUDS
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD GET INTO NW OHIO AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER 1
AM. MANY OF THE MODELS WEAKEN THE LINE AS IT MOVES IN. IT SHOULD WEAKEN
OVER NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA. WENT CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE
FOR THE LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. THE POPS ARE DEFINITELY IN QUESTION. AT THIS TIME GOING
THAT THE LINE WILL WEAKEN AND BE SOMEWHAT NARROW AND THEN INCREASE
AGAIN AS IT MOVES INLAND. IN THE AFTERNOON LIMITING THE THUNDER TO
THE INLAND AREAS AND EVEN BY THEN THE THUNDER MAY BE GONE. SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A SHORT TIME BECAUSE
OF PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND THE TROF ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF CAK AND YNG.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN ON THURSDAY AND THEN THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. SOME QUESTION IF
SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT. ADDED POPS TO THE EXTREME
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS AS
WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY NIGHT. USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS INDICATE A WEAK S/W DROPPING SE THRU THE REGION FRI NIGHT
AND SAT WITH ANOTHER S/W DIGGING INTO THE LAKES SUN THRU MON. WILL
KEEP A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN IN THE FORECAST SAT THRU MON THEN
DECREASE POPS A LITTLE FOR TUE. TEMPS SAT INTO SUN SHOULD BE NEAR
NORMAL THEN START TO DROP A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL MON AND EVEN MORE
BELOW NORMAL ON TUE AS THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CUT OFF AND
CAMP OUT OVER THE EASTERN LAKES TUE THRU AT LEAST FRI.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DAYTIME CU SHOULD STAY SCT MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON THEN DISSIPATE
INTO SUNSET. A LAKE BREEZE SHOULD OCCUR AT ERI BUT IS MORE
QUESTIONABLE AS TO WHETHER IT WILL DROP INTO CLE.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE TAF SITES ROUGHLY FROM AROUND
10Z AT TOL TO ABOUT 16Z AT CAK. THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING TIMING SHOULD
MEAN LIMITED CONVECTION SO WILL STAY WITH VCSH IN THE FORECAST FOR A
FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THRU. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS AND
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WILL OCCUR FOR A WHILE
BEHIND THE FRONT. SW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL TURN NW WITH FROPA.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SAT THRU SUN.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT TO SEE THE SW FLOW INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 TO 18 KNOTS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SE ACROSS THE LAKE WED MORNING
TURNING THE FLOW TO THE NW. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE
WED INTO EARLY THU UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE LAKE
TO LIGHTEN THE WINDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD SET UP OUT OF
THE SW FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS SE OF THE LAKE AND CONTINUE
SAT...TURNING MORE WEST SUN AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KIELTYKA
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...KIELTYKA
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS