Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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542
FXUS61 KCLE 221612
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1212 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure located north of Lake Superior will continue to move
slowly east across Canada today. High pressure will push up the Ohio
Valley later today and move to the east coast on Tuesday. The next
storm system will slowly move from the Mississippi Valley across the
Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Drier air is moving east over the region today. Cu field has been
greater than expected earlier but is finally showing an eastward
shift while cirrus continue to steam in from the sw. Current high
temps still seem reachable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The period will start out quiet as a high pressure will remain
in control through Tuesday. The new guidance is a little slower
with the progression of the main features during the period. All
of the new 00z models show deepening low pressure over the lower
Ohio Valley at daybreak Wednesday. Tracks differ slightly but
all of the guidance eventually tracks this low across western
Ohio Wednesday night and across Lake Erie on Thursday. Have
slowed down the onset of rain in the forecast based on this
scenario. Most of the area should end up dry Tuesday night with
rain chances not really increasing till Wednesday when the low
begins to approach. Most locations should expect a good 6 to 12
hour period of fairly steady rain followed by a period of
showery weather. Greatest precip chances will occur Wednesday
evening. Showers are likely Thursday and Thursday evening in the
cold air advection behind the low. It will take till the end of
the period for most of the area to dry out. Highs both Tuesday
and Wednesday will get within a couple degrees of normal highs
which are now in the lower 70s. Thursday will be a cool gray
day. Have ended up using a blend of guidance for temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Active long term period with precip chance through the weekend and
seasonable temperatures. Brief ridging will build across the area on
Friday as upper low departs the area to the east. Some lingering
showers possible on the backside of the low, especially east, but
nothing more than slight chance worthy at this point. A series of
shortwave will then move east across the southern Great Lakes and
Ohio valley Friday night through Sunday, with a warm front lifting
north through the area Saturday night into Sunday as a surface low
deepens and moves into the Great Lakes. Subtle model differences and
being 5 plus days out only lends enough confidence for several
periods of chance pops at this time. Went with 30-40 pops Saturday
and Saturday night, with 40-50 pops Sunday with better frontal
forcing. Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s Friday,
with mid 70s expected Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Some post frontal MVFR ceilings are expected briefly at the
onset of the TAF period from KCLE to KCAK and mainly points
eastward. Otherwise, clearing skies expected through the day as
high pressure builds across the Ohio valley. Winds may gust out
of the west up to 20 kts for a period this morning through the
afternoon, becoming less than 10 kts and southerly by the end of
the period.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Tuesday night through Thursday in
showers and TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Cold front has moved through most of Lake Erie early this morning,
with westerly winds from the western basin east through about Erie.
West southwest flow will increase across the lake through the day in
the 15-20 knot range before tapering off late this afternoon into
this evening from west to east. Winds will become southerly 10 knots
or less tonight becoming easterly Tuesday as low pressure pulls
northeast away from the Great Lakes and high pressure moves quickly
east across the region. Flow will be 10 knots or less through
Tuesday night, but will increase a bit out of the north Wednesday
and low pressure deepens and moves north across the lake by
Wednesday night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Adams
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...Greenawalt



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