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000
FXUS61 KCLE 302302
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
702 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. IT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
ATTEMPT TO BUILD IN THURSDAY...BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL BE OVERRIDDEN
AT TIMES BY UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND WEAK SURFACE FEATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTION BETWEEN CLE AND CAK. STORM CELL CORES HAVE EXCEEDED 65
DBZ ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL AND LOWEST ELEVATION SCAN MEASURED
RADIAL VELOCITY NEAR 47 KT FROM THE TLVE TDWR IN MEDINA COUNTY.
WITH ONLY MODEST MLCAPE JUST ABOVE 500 J/KG EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO SUBSIDE SOON AND LEAVE A CLEARING SKY FOR A FEW HOURS. ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS IN
THE VERY SHORT TERM OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES NEAR CAK TO YNG.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE RADAR HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THAT STRETCHES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE HURON...SOUTH TO ABOUT
CINCINNATI. MLCAPES BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG...COUPLED WITH STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT IN SUPPORTING SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. NO ORGANIZED THREAT IS
EXPECTED GIVEN EFFECTIVE/0-6 KM SHEAR IS GENERALLY LESS THAN 25
KNOTS...AND THE LACK OF STRONG SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND/OR
FORCING. HOWEVER...WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL LESS THAN 10K
FEET...SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. CHANCE POPS WILL CARRY US THROUGH
THIS EVENING...IMPROVING TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN MOST AREAS SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HOLD ONTO
CHANCE POPS LONGER WITH THE GFS AND NAM INDICATING A VORT MAX
AFFECTING THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH DEEP TROUGHING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. MINOR SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO
PULSE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THEY PIVOT AROUND THE PARENT LOW
CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. POCKETS OF UNSEASONABLY
COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
TRIGGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WAS THE CASE
EARLY THIS MORNING.

A VORT MAX AT H500 WILL HELP TO INITIATE SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. THE REST OF THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE RAIN FREE...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY ALOFT. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 70`S. BY MID
AFTERNOON ALL AREAS SHOULD BE DRY AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE DRIES AND
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL.

FRIDAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF TRANSITION AS THE WIND SHIFTS FROM THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK UP THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL MORE SUMMER LIKE WITH HIGHS IN
THE AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL WEST OF
THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO OHIO AND WILL FEED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRI AND SAT. MID-LEVEL JET ENERGY THAT
CONTINUES TO EJECT FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER CANADA SHOULD HELP
SUPPORT/INITIATE ANY CONVECTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE TROUGH ALOFT AS IF FINALLY
STARTS TO FILL AND LIFT OUT. IT STILL MAY BE COOL ENOUGH ALOFT AND
UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A SHOWER THREAT. WILL TAKE A SHOT AND LEAVE THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY DRY AS THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RIDGING AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT BUT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
TRYING TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL TRY TO
RECOVER TO NORMAL LEVELS ON MONDAY. NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SECOND UPPER S/W WILL MOVE ESE ACROSS LERI DURING THE MIDDLE OF
THE NIGHT. WE EXPECT THIS FEATURE TO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA AND
SOME TSRA AS IT WORKS WITH THE WARMTH OF THE LAKE ERIE WATERS THUS
THE BEST THREAT FOR LOWERED CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN WILL BE A CLE AND
ERI WITH A LESSER THREAT AT YNG AND CAK.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE DRIER AIR START TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW TO CLEAR OUT ALL BUT THE SNOWBELT WHERE
MARGINAL LAKE EFFECT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AT LEAST BKN
CIGS AT ERI ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE SHRA. CIGS AT CLE WILL PROBABLY
STAY BKN MOST OF THE TIME THRU THU MORNING.

DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCT TO BKN CU THRUT THE AREA FROM ABOUT
15 TO 16Z ON BUT ONLY ISOLATED SHRA ARE EXPECTED AT MOST.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SOME OF THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN TROUGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT THERE
STILL MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ON LAKE ERIE TO GENERATE A
WATERSPOUT OR TWO THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY
OF OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP.
WIND FIELDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST UNTIL THE WEEKEND AT WHICH
POINT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND THE FLOW WILL COME ROUND FROM THE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...KOSARIK