Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 181728
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1228 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE UPDATE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUDINESS CONTINUES ALONG WITH FLURRIES. VERY WEAK LAKE EFFECT
SNOW IS EVIDENT ON KCLE JUST NORTH OF CLEVELAND AND THE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LIGHT SNOW PROGRESSING INTO WESTERN OHIO WHICH
IS MAINLY ALOFT BUT SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND IN INDIANA. THIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MEASUREABLE SNOW AROUND 20 PERCENT OUTSIDE THE SNOW
BELT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY OR RISE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR HZY AND ERI.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING THE SURFACE TROUGH NOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES...ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.  WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW MOST OF NE OH AND NW PA WILL SEE SOME SNOW TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS.  THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE...TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850MB AND THE LAKE
IS ONLY 14C WHICH IS MARGINAL...AND LACK OF ANY OTHER DYNAMICS.

SHOULD SEE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE ENDING FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY AS LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE LAKE.  THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND ON
MONDAY.  TDY MODEL RUN MUCH DRIER THAN YDY.  BOTH GFS AND ECMWF
KEEPS AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN SO CONFIDENCE
ISN`T VERY HIGH TODAY.  GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
MONDAY WILL DRY BUT MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIP BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
MORE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA.  THE MODELS
HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY.
TEMPS TUESDAY SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 40S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO
RAIN IS EXPECTED.  THE SURFACE LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER THE WESTERN LAKES THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL ALLOW
ANOTHER WAVE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL PULL COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA AND CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE 00Z MODELS ARE MUCH FURTHER
EAST WITH THIS SECOND LOW AND THUS ARE A LITTLE DRIER.  THE ECMWF
REMAINS WARMER THAN THE GFS AND IF IT IS RIGHT IT WILL TAKE A WHILE
LONGER FOR THE PRECIP TO CHANGE TO SNOW.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP IS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY POPS.  HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. EXPECT TO
SEE CIGS LIFT TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A SHORT WAVE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS TO
DIP BACK TO MVFR. EXPECTING JUST A FEW FLURRIES TODAY FROM KCLE
EAST. SOME SNOW SHOWERS COULD OCCUR THIS EVENING AS THE SHORT WAVE
ARRIVES. WESTERLY WINDS HAVE FINALLY DIMINISHED AND SHOULD BE NO
MORE THAN 10 TO 12 KNOTS ALL DAY AND 8 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR LATE FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. MORE NON
VFR EXPECTED LATE MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ALTHOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THIS MORNING TO ALLOW WAVES TO COME
DOWN.  WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BECOME NORTHERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING.  WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.  SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE
SUNDAY AND THEN INCREASE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.  SPEEDS
MAY GET HIGH ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT BY THE END OF MONDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.