Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 262304
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
705 PM EDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the east coast will move little through the
weekend. An area of low pressure over the Central Plains Friday
will begin to move northeast on Saturday. This low will cross the
northern lakes early Sunday. A warm front from the low will lift
across the local area on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Cumulus field across Northern Ohio and NW PA continues to
struggle to build. Have backed thunderstorm chances off to slight
chance across portions of the county warning area. Even these
chances may end up being too high. However will wait until after
sunset before ending the thunder chances. Overnight lows should
be close to current dewpoints

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Unsettled weather will continue during the period. Rain chances
will be hit and miss during the period as there is a lack
organized forcing at the surface. It appears best chance for
storms will be on Saturday as the low over the Central Plains
lifts northeast toward the northern Lakes. At the same time a wave
will scoot up the west side of the upper ridge. It appears a weak warm
frontal boundary will try to lift across the local area at the
same time. The factors combined could provide enough forcing for
some organized convection. Given the areas location under the
upper ridge there will be little if any shear. So, the threat for
severe weather is minimal. The models are similar with this
scenario but all have slight timing differences. Will continue
with chance pops most of the period.

It`s going to feel more like the July 4th weekend than the
Memorial Day weekend. Highs will be in the 80s every day with
Saturday likely the warmest of the days.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak cold front will move south across the area on Memorial Day
with humidity dropping off a bit. The frontal boundary should be
south and east of the area early in the day so removed chances for
precipitation from most areas, with just a slight chance continuing
in the southeast. Daytime highs should only drop off a couple
degrees but lows will trend back into the upper 50s to near 60 with
high pressure overhead on Monday and Tuesday nights. Conditions
should remain dry through mid-week but we will need to start
watching for moisture return ahead of the next trough approaching
from the Plains during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Widely sct shra/tsra will remain possible thru fri evening. There
will be a better chc for the shra/tsra to affect an airport until
about midnight tonight then again fri afternoon once daytime heating
triggers new convection. Since the chc is low will only carry VCSH
unless something appears imminent. Most of the cu field will
dissipate thru 02z then redevelop by midday fri.

The increased dewpoints and light winds should lead to mvfr fog
forming late tonight then dissipating by 13z to 14z.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in shra/tsra as well as early morning
mist/haze/fog through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally good marine conditions expected through the Holiday
weekend with winds averaging 10 knots or less. Lake Erie is located
between high pressure over the southeastern states and broad low
pressure across the plains and upper midwest. Generally light wind
pattern will allow lake breezes to develop each afternoon on the
east half of the lake through Saturday. Low pressure will track out
of the plains across the central great lakes from Saturday night
through Sunday night with a weak cold front moving south across lake
Erie early Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase
in coverage over the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...KEC



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