Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 270558
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
158 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
Low pressure over Illinois will move east and cross Lake Erie
Thursday dragging a cold front across the area Thursday morning.
High Pressure will slide across the Ohio Valley on Friday. Another
low pressure system will cross the Great Lakes over the weekend.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Warmer air a little slower moving into forecast area so lower
overnight temps a couple of degrees in the East. Showers already
into Erie county and still appear on track for CLE around 10 pm.
Heavier showers maybe an hour or so behind that.
The situation for tonight is not as clear-cut as we would hope.
Pretty good band of showers coming across northern Indiana. The
best dynamics and over running would indicate a general northern
shift to the precip but cannot rule out a few showers tracking
across the northern counties early tonight, primarily northwest
Ohio. Elsewhere the boundary layer will remain relatively dry with
a downslope southeast wind and there is a decent chance of nothing
more than a few showers/sprinkles farther east from around
Cleveland to Youngstown the first part of the night. Better chance
for showers later tonight as warm advection continues and the low
level jet moves overhead. Cannot rule out thunder with some
elevated instability later but given the dry/cool boundary layer
and the time of night am inclined to not mention it in the
forecast at this time.
Temperatures will try to rise a bit overnight given the wind shift
from southeast to south although the rain will suppress the
temperature rise at times. The hourly temperature forecast will
attempt to depict this.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The surface low should track across Lake Erie Thursday morning with
winds gusty and veering from south to west northwest through the
day. The showers should exit east after the front. Some lake
enhanced/lake effect showers may linger northeast OH and northwest
especially as the winds come around from from the northwest late in
High pressure will build across the area quickly on Friday with
winds backing to the southwest. With any luck we can get some
sunshine between the low clouds and the increasing high clouds.
Temperatures will begin to recover especially across northwest
Saturday remains problematic with most of the models showing a a
cold front sagging south across the Great Lakes. not sure how far
south the front will push. The shower threat would be confined to
the area near the front. Will continue with a "chance" of showers
mainly across northeast OH and northwest PA. Will continue to be
optimistic about temperatures assuming that the front will be
late in the day or Sunday night. Highs generally from the lower
60s to around 70.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The forecast models are in reasonable agreement with the long
term which gives additional confidence for the forecast. A weak
shortwave moving through the slight northwest flow Sunday may
Bring a few showers across Ohio with the old baroclinic
zone lingering mid state. A Pacific trough lifts across the
northern Plains...although there are some differences in the track
of the resultant low across the Great Lakes. At any rate...expect
a brief warm up going into Tuesday...followed by the cold front.
.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Low pressure centered over northern Indiana will move northeast
across Lake Erie through Thursday afternoon. Showers are filling in
ahead of the low with occasional MVFR visibilities in rain. Ceilings
will lower from VFR ahead of the low to MVFR/IFR near and behind the
low. Easterly winds will eventually shift around to the west or
northwest behind the low and be breezy with gusts to 20+ knots on
Thursday afternoon. Southeasterly downsloping winds will also be
breezy at ERI ahead of the low for the next several hours with gusts
to near 25 knots. Showers will diminish from west to east behind the
low on Thursday with scattered lake effect showers continuing off
the lake at CLE/ERI into Thursday evening.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR should hang on in the snowbelt area thru friday
morning then return again on the weekend.
Low pressure moving ene up the lake will shift east winds of 15 to
25 knots to sw late tonight and to west for thursday. Small craft
advisory will be up through Thursday...although there will be a
brief lull across the western basin with the low passing nearby
toward morning. High pressure passing south of the lake for Thursday
night calms the lake and will bring winds around to the southwest as
it shifts east. A warm front will lift north Friday followed by a
cold front Saturday. Small craft advisory likely again with this
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LEZ142>149.