Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 210713
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
313 AM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over Pennsylvania will continue to
influence the weather across the Upper Ohio Valley through
Sunday. A cold front will cross the local area Monday into
early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure over PA will continue to influence weather across
the region today through Sunday. Expect plenty of sun today
although cirrus should begin to spread in from the west this
afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front due in on Monday.
Sunday do expect thicker clouds to move into the west half of
the area through the afternoon as the front reaches near a
lower MI to IL line. Currently models keep the area dry on
Sunday although MET guidance for KTOL does have a 20 pop for the
afternoon. For now will keep precip just to our west at 00Z
Monday. Highs will reach the mid and possibly a few upper 70s
today. Highs Sunday in the mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Models continue to move next cold front across the area late Monday.
Expect light showers to spread east across the forecast area by late
afternoon.   Heavier rain will occur Monday Night as a wave moves
along the frontal boundary and the system taps into gulf
moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers will continue through Tuesday as a second, much stronger
front moves across the forecast area Tuesday.   The system will
usher in much colder air with a deep upper level trough digging over
the area.   System moves east Tuesday night but the 850mb temps
plunge to -2c by daybreak Wednesday allowing for Lake Enhanced
showers to develop in the East.  Will go likely pops in the East
with chance pops elsewhere with the deep trough.  Much cooler temps
on Wednesday with highs only in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

The trough is progged to pull out on Thursday as ridge builds over
the area.   Timing of next system still in doubt.   GFS pushes
another strong cold front across the forecast area Saturday.   The
ECMWF however holds it off until Sunday night.  For now will go low
chance pops late in period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
High pressure and a dry stable airmass will continue to affect
the region through Saturday night. May see some patchy morning
fog but chances not high enough at this point to put in TAFS.
Winds will be light and from the south to southeast. Brought a
brief lake into KERI after 19z but guidance and HRRR keeps it
out of KCLE so will leave out for now.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in rain showers Sunday night through
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively quiet conditions on the lake will continue through the
weekend.   South flow will continue on the Lake, as high pressure,
centered over the Eastern Lakes,  moves off the East Coast late
today.   Strong cold front will move across the Lake Tuesday.   GFS
continues to be a little faster than the NAM and ECMWF. Small Craft
will be needed as the winds behind the front turn to the NW and
increase to 15 to 25 kt.  Much colder airmass as 850 mb temps plunge
to -2c by daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...DJB



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