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000
FXUS61 KCLE 252359
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
759 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT TO THE VIRGINIA COAST
BY TUESDAY AND STALL THE REST OF THE WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOME HIGHER CLOUDS INTO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR. TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO DROP OVERNIGHT TO THE
FREEZING MARK IN THE EAST AND MIDDLE 30S IN THE CENTRAL PORTIONS
TO LOWER 40S IN THE WEST AND ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.

OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED WITH THIS PACKAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A LITTLE WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO CONTINUE TO MODERATE SUN
WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 60S IN THE FAR NE TO UPPER 60S IN THE SW. THE
INLAND EAST WILL PROBABLY SEE ANOTHER THREAT FOR PATCHY FROST SUN
NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S THERE. THE REST OF THE CWA
SHOULD SEE WARMER LOWS AND SHOULD NOT SEE ANY FROST.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE AND WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE THE ONLY WORTHWHILE CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE WORK
WEEK. WILL KEEP THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CENTERED ON MON NIGHT AND
TUE. SEE ONLY AN ISOLATED THREAT BY WED AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN
AND THE WARM FRONT PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS MOVES WELL NE OF THE
AREA.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR COULD CAUSE
SOME OF THE STORMS MON NIGHT AND TUE TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE SO THE
SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

HIGH TEMPS BY WED WILL AGAIN BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST PLACES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARMING SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE
EXTENDED. WITH THE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION COULD OCCUR...AT THIS TIME NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO FORECAST IT. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME QUESTION HOW QUICKLY THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START SATURDAY NIGHT...GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE MODELS ARE NOT CLEAR. USED A BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AND NW PA THROUGH SUNDAY. EXPECT VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SLIM CHANCES
OF SOME MVFR FOG FOR INLAND LOCATIONS NEAR KCAK AND KYNG. HOWEVER
DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON SUNDAY IT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WEST. ELSEWHERE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO AS HIGH AS 10 KNOTS.

.OUTLOOK...PATCHY MVFR BR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE
IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
A RIDGE WAS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY BUILD AND EXPAND ACROSS THE LAKE.
THE RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OF LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT.

IN THE MEANTIME A MAINLY ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH MONDAY. SOME CONCERN
THAT THE WINDS COULD PICK UP ENOUGH ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE
EARLY TONIGHT TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 3 TO 5 FEET.
AT THIS TIME THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IS SHORT SO THE FEELING AFTER
COORDINATION WITH BUF THAT 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES SHOULD HANDLE IT.
OTHERWISE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY WAVES SHOULD BE 3
FEET OR LESS.

AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST MONDAY NIGHT A SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE
LAKE AND NOT EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO MEET SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ010>013-020>022-029>033-038-047-089.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ014-023.
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ001.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KIELTYKA
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KIELTYKA