Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 251040
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
640 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016
A weakening cold front will move across the region today. High
pressure will build into the region tonight into Tuesday then
persist into Wednesday night. Another cold front is expected to sag
southward into northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania on
Thursday. This boundary will then become the path for low pressure
to track along on Friday.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Only made minor changes to the current gridded data.
Cold front is now located from central Lake Huron to Central
Illinois. The best convergence as of 10z was located over
southern Ontario. this activity has been drifting to the east
northeast and could miss NW PA. Will continue to monitor any
outflow that attempts to drift southward onto Lake Erie.
Outflow from a nearly dissipated MCS has moved into western Ohio
early this morning. This boundary has cause the development of a
few thunderstorms near Toledo. Expect there will be additional
isolated to scattered development along outflow boundaries through
at least mid morning. We will then await the arrival of a
weakening cold front that should sweep across northern OH and NW
PA through the afternoon. So after the morning isolated to
scattered thunderstorms there may be a brief lull until we can get
enough heating ahead of the frontal boundary to pop any new
thunderstorms. Current thinking is that this isolated to scattered
coverage will mainly be near and south of a line from Marion to
Meadville. These chances will shift southeastward with the frontal
boundary through the afternoon.
It still will be a humid day until the cold front passes. All
locations should still be in the mid to upper 80s for highs. This
combined with the humidity will cause heat index values in the
lower to maybe middle 90s.
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front should be south of the County Warning Area (CWA) during
the evening hours with high pressure beginning to build into the
area in its wake. Dry conditions will then persist into Wednesday
night. The area of high pressure will weaken as another weak cold
front sags into the area on Thursday. Not all that much moisture
to lift ahead of the front but there could be some
isolated/scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.
The better chances will arrive late thursday night into Friday as
a ripple of low pressure moves along the frontal boundary that
stalls over the area.
Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal averages
through the short term.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The slight dip in the jet stream/relaxation of the upper ridge will
hold through the weekend. A presence of a couple weak disturbances
and a nearly stationary frontal boundary will necessitate low pops
for Friday and Saturday and possibly Sunday as well. Broad brushed
precip chances as timing this far out not possible. Temperatures
will be seasonable.
.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Upstream convection across Illinois and Indiana is expected to
move southward while cirrus spreads east overnight. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are also developing to the north across
Michigan and will move southeast overnight. Tried to time these
into the terminals, and brought thunderstorms into CLE/ERI after
10Z. Confidence is lower in thunderstorms elsewhere so just
included VCSH for now. Daytime heating may cause thunderstorms to
fill back in along this boundary during the late morning and early
afternoon. VFR conditions expected outside of showers except the
potential for some MVFR visibilities between 08-12Z. Wind will
generally be 10 knots or less out of the southwest tonight and
shift to the west during the day on Monday.
OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in fog/mist possible each morning. Non-VFR
possible in thunderstorms on Friday.
Southwest flow will increase today ahead of a cold front. There will
be a time this afternoon where waves just offshore across the east
end nearshore waters will likely get to 4 feet. With 2 to 4
capturing most of the day will go without a Small Craft Advisory.
The cold front will come across the lake this evening and bring
winds around to the west and then north while diminishing. High
pressure will then center itself across the Midwest and lower Great
Lakes through mid week. The next front to make it to the lake
arrives Wednesday night...stalling south of the lake to end the