258
FXUS61 KCLE 090526
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
126 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will lift a warm front north across the region
late tonight into Thursday. Unsettled weather will persist
through the end of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Low pressure is expected to track eastward along a stationary
boundary that looks like it will remain near or just south of
the I-70 corridor. There will still be plenty of warm
advection/isentropic lift to produce a large area of rain that
moves across the region from west to east through the day.
There will be some middle level instability that rides over
northern OH later this morning into the afternoon so there will
be some thunder across the area. Best chances for the thunder
look to be near and south of US 30. Showers will be slow to end
from west to east this evening into the overnight as we wait
for an upper level trough to pass overhead. Greatest chances
for continued rain will be across NE OH into NW PA.

Temperatures through sunrise should settle to the mid 40`s to
mid 50s across the CWA. Not much of a diurnal range today with
thicker cloud cover and rain expected. It likely gets the
warmest near the OH/PA border into NW PA where the rain takes a
bit longer to develop. Highs should range from the mid 50`s to
lower 60`s. Cloud cover persists into tonight but cooler air
does spread into the region in the wake of the low pressure
passing to our south. Lows tonight dip into the 40`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
We start the short term period with an upper-level trough overhead.
Isolated to scattered rain showers may linger across the area on
Friday especially the eastern part of the forecast area before that
trough departs to the east. Upper-level ridging and surface high
pressure very briefly builds in Friday night before another upper-
level trough and associated surface low move southeast across the
Great Lakes region. Periods of rain showers are expected through the
day Saturday, with mean QPF around 0.25" (some spots lower, other
areas as high as 0.5"). Isolated thunderstorms may be possible
during the afternoon/evening hours. Isolated to scattered rain
showers may linger into Saturday night, mainly for the eastern part
of the forecast area. Temperatures will be below normal through the
short term period with highs around 60 and lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Broad weak upper-level ridging builds in, although several weak
upper-level shortwaves move across the area through the week,
resulting in low PoPs maintaining through the long term period.
Temperatures gradually warm up through the week with highs in the
low 70s increasing to mid-upper 70s by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/...
Low pressure passes to the south of the region today with east
to northwest winds of 8-15 knots. A few higher gusts will be
possible. Winds shift to the north during the evening hours but
should decrease to under 10 knots by 06Z.

CLoud cover will be slow to lower across the region through the
morning but MVFR conditions should develop for many locations after
the rain occurs for a few hours. However the easterly
downsloping flow likely delays the onset of the MVFR conditions
cross NE OH into NW PA into mid to late afternoon. There is a
possibility these areas dont see any MVFR ceilings until the
northerly winds kick in during the evening hours.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely at times in showers and lower clouds
through Friday afternoon, especially NE OH into NW PA. Non-VFR
possible in showers and storms Saturday into Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure over northern Missouri gradually moves east tonight and
tomorrow across the Ohio Valley, with easterly winds strengthening
to 20 to 25 knots during the day Thursday. As the low moves east
towards the mid-Atlantic region, winds gradually veer to northeast,
north and northwest Thursday night and Friday morning. Winds of up
to 25 knots and waves of 3 to 6 feet will result in a small craft
advisory for this period for all of our Lake Erie nearshore waters.

Another weak low moves southeast across the Great Lakes region on
Saturday. There could be periods of stronger winds to 15 knots, but
it`s a low chance of small craft advisory at this point. The wind
and wave forecast looks to be mild Sunday onward as there will
be no strong low of high pressure systems.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for LEZ142-143.
     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 10 AM EDT
     Friday for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...Saunders
LONG TERM...Saunders
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Saunders