Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 310722
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
322 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL THEN MOVE
EAST TO THE VIRGINIA COAST BY FRIDAY. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWEST OUT OF MAINE INTO THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER AREAS DUMPING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO AN INCH
AND A HALF AN HOUR. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SINCE DISSIPATED
OVER THE LAST HOUR.

DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME HELPING TO DECREASE THE PRECIPITATION THREAT AT
THIS TIME. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER MINIMAL CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP A MINIMAL CHANCE POPS ACROSS THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE.

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES WITH SOME RELATIVELY HIGH DEW POINT
AIR. EXPECTING HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AGAIN WITH NO
CHANGE IN AIR MASS. DEW POINTS WILL BE BACK UP AROUND UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN HAS TRENDED TOWARD A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TREND IS FOR THIS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO HANG AROUND FOR A WHILE KEEPING THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER IN LATE AUGUST AND A REPRIEVE FROM
WHAT APPEARED TO BE AN EARLY TASTE OF FALL LAST WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN PERSISTENT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY AND KEEP FOR THE MOST PART A FAIR WEATHER PATTERN
GOING. SOME MINIMAL MOISTURE WILL RETURN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AS SOME SMALL BITS OF UPPER LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SHOTS OF
MOISTURE. ONCE AGAIN...WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MINIMAL AT BEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE...NOT SEEING ANY REAL AIR MASS CHANGE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD SO WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.  WILL GO OUT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW POP UP STORMS EACH AND EVERY
AFTERNOON.  SINCE COVERAGE WILL BE 10 PERCENT OR LESS WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.  LOT`S OF NOISE IN THE MODELS RIGHT
NOW SO HOPEFULLY LATER RUNS WILL PAINT A CLEARER PICTURE.  A WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. EXTREME HEAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT HIGHS WILL BE
A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.  IT
APPEARS SUNDAY COULD END UP BEING THE WARMEST DAY AND MAY NEED TO
MENTION 90 AT SOME POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ENTIRE AREA IS ONCE AGAIN DRY AS THE LAST FEW SHOWERS HAVE
EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CIGS REMAIN OVER ABOUT THE EASTERN 3/4 OF THE AREA. A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN THESE CLOUDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT THE CLOUDS WILL
BE SLOW ENOUGH TO KEEP ANYTHING MORE THAN THAN PATCHY MVFR FOG
FROM DEVELOPING. FURTHER WEST IT`S A DIFFERENT STORY WITH IFR
CONDITIONS ALREADY WEST AND NW OF THE I-75 CORRIDOR. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG IN THESE AREAS WITH PATCHES OF IFR AS WELL
LATER TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME HOURS WILL BE QUIET WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS. BRIEF BKN CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
EAST ALONG WITH A FEW POP UP STORMS. LIGHT S TO SW FLOW WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP AT
KERI AND KCLE THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE AROUND EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THE LAKE ERIE ALL WEEK.  THE
GRADIENT THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW OR W.  SPEEDS
WILL GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS SO ONSHORE FLOW IS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.  A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO CROSS THE LAKE SOMETIME THURSDAY AND THIS
WILL RESULT IN A LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EAST GRADIENT DEVELOPING.  AGAIN
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.  NOT ANTICIPATING ON NEEDING
ANY HEADLINES THIS WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...KUBINA
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KUBINA



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