Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH
FXUS61 KCLE 282341
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
741 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016
High pressure over the region will weaken as a weak cold front
moves across the area on Sunday. High pressure will return to the
region for the first part of the week.
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Much of the instability across the region has been exhausted. So
anything that remains into the evening will mainly be showers but
an isolated thunderstorm will remain possible. Best chance to
still see some evening thunder will be across NW OH and maybe
across the southeastern County Warning Area (CWA) as an outflow
boundary moves across that region.
Otherwise have only made changes to hourly temperatures to
account for the rain cooled air across the central and western
Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this
afternoon. Deep moisture remains over the area but little in the
way of forcing. Since most of the thunderstorms are diurnally
driven they should begin to decrease in coverage this evening.
With the approaching front and the weakening ridge, I will not
completely rule out the chance of a few storms overnight but I
will lower the probabilities into the slight chance category.
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A weak cold front will move across the forecast area
on Sunday. The models indicate the front should move through during
the afternoon. The upper level dynamics with this front are fairly
limited however deep moisture is in place. I expected the shower
and thunderstorm activity to be more widespread Sunday afternoon.
SPC has placed most of the forecast area in a Marginal Risk outlook
for Sunday. Model CAPE values may exceed 2000 but the lack of upper
dynamics will limit the organization of the storms. Any severe
thunderstorms will most likely be pulse storms with isolated
downbursts and possible hail. Temperatures will be slightly
cooler on Sunday as cloud cover and thunderstorms are expected
with the frontal passage. However, if any areas see extended
sunshine, it is possible temperatures could reach the mid 80s
again. A few scattered showers may linger Sunday evening but high
pressure will slowly build back over the forecast area by Monday
morning. Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures should occur
through the first part of the week.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Overall upper level pattern shows a ridge of high pressure building
east and then moving east of the area during this forecast period.
This ridge should continue to help support subsidence and warm air
advection into the local area. During the latter half of the
forecast period, an upper level trough will approach the local area.
The Gulf of Mexico will open up once again and force warm tropical
air into the forecast area by Thursday and continue into Friday. A
cold front will move east into the area and bring another round of
showers and thunderstorms. Latest models suggest a cooling trend
will take place into the weekend behind the cold front as upper
level troughiness and west to northwest flow occur.
.AVIATION /00Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
Threat of thunderstorms diminishing with nightfall. VFR outside of
showers. Morning BR possible for a couple/few hours as moisture
levels have increased over yesterday. There is the chance for some
showers with possible thunder to move across the area Sunday
morning west through mid afternoon across the east. Best thunder
chances would be across the east with this feature with the
diurnally favored part of the day. Otherwise a cold front will be
approaching from the west toward 00Z MON. Have PROB30 for TS for
the western sites late in the TAF period. Winds outside of the
convection will return to a light south breeze for tonight and
Outlook...Non-VFR possible in SHRA/TS Sunday evening. Areas of MVFR
possible Sunday night into Monday morning.
The lake is expected to be relatively quiet through much of the
period as surface flow remains rather stagnant. No major weather
systems are expected through the next 5 days and not expecting any
headlines for small craft advisories to be issued during this time
frame. Otherwise, just looking at the potential for afternoon
thunderstorms today and Sunday as a cold front sweeps through the
area on Sunday. Fair weather returns for Monday through Tuesday and
a good portion of Wednesday.