Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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386
FXUS61 KCLE 231032
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
632 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will cross the local area later
today and will be followed by a second trough on Thursday. High
pressure will build over the Great Lakes Friday into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The front is well off to the east and the area is now dry. Drier
air continues to work into the region but this hasn`t stopped
strato cumulus clouds from forming over the lake this morning.
Locations from Lorain County east remain mostly cloudy at the
moment. The drier air should eventually win out and by daybreak
skies should be mainly clear in the west and no more than partly
cloudy most areas in the east. After a fair amount of sunshine
this morning skies will again begin to cu back up and scattered
to broken skies are expected most areas this afternoon as temps
continue to cool aloft. An upper trough is still on track to
cross the local area late in the day. The models don`t appear to
be impressed with this feature as precip should be sparse.
Coverage of 10 to 20 percent is expected and will continue with
low chance pops for the eastern half of the area. Any activity
that forms will dissipate in the evening with the loss of
daytime heating. Perhaps slightly better chances for showers
exist on Thursday as yet another trough crosses this region.
This system will benefit from 850 mb temps dipping to around
plus 6 resulting in better low level instability. Already had
small chance wording in the forecast and to continue with that
seems reasonable.

Temps a little tricky today as the models don`t often handle
these big airmass changes well. Think mid 70s seem reasonable
for today but readings will struggle to get to 70 many areas on
Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level pattern keeps upper level trough in place through the
weekend.  This pattern will bring much cooler air to the forecast
area through Saturday.  Lake effect rain showers are possible across
the northeast snowbelt regions of the forecast area Thursday night
and begin to wane by Friday morning.  The lake effect showers are in
response to the cold air advection across the warm waters of the
lake. Lake surface to 850 mb temperatures reach a 24 degree C spread
by Thursday night and inversion climbs up to around 9000 feet.  This
will likely be unstable enough to support the shower activity.
Localized qpf amounts could be on the higher side but basin averages
should be light.  Inversion is expected to descend fairly rapidly
late Thursday night into Friday morning and this should bring an end
to the lake effect rain showers.  High pressure will begin to build
east across the area Friday into Saturday night and bring cool fair
weather to the local area.

Due to the cold air advection, will struggle to get past the 70s
most areas and perhaps in the 60s in the northeast through the
period.  Overnight lows will drop into the 50s and even some 40s as
well.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level ridge begins to build east into the local area by the
end of the weekend followed by a shortwave trough Monday through
Tuesday.  Air mass will remain dry through Sunday into Monday and
moisture will be limited with the upper level trough.  So, will
continue with continuity and keep the forecast dry Sunday but then
advance a minimal chance for showers and thunderstorms into the west
on Monday.  Otherwise, it should remain dry across the area through
the rest of the forecast period.

Temperatures will still struggle to recover through the forecast
period as no real strong push of warm air is expected.  A
comfortable high in the 70s is expected through the period but lows
will recover back to the 60s by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
As expected skies have cleared. The CU rule is still showing
broken cigs over the eastern half to two thirds of the area this
afternoon. Still expecting a few pop up showers toward evening
as an upper waves crosses the area. Confidence remains too low
to mention in the TAFs. Skies will again clear in the west
tonight but clouds should persist longer in the east as the flow
becomes northerly. Light flow will become west to northwest
around 10 knots later this morning.

OUTLOOK...MVFR possible in morning fog Friday through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds on the lake will be marginal for small craft advisories so
will keep the advisory in place.  Anticipating that the advisory may
be able to drop by mid morning if winds stay low enough.  Models are
suggesting a little wind spike expected in the afternoon for a
period and then begin to drop off toward dark.  Winds will be
generally 10 knots or less tonight through Friday and then down to
around 5 knots or so by Saturday. A slight shift to the northeast
and then east is expected Saturday into Sunday at 10 knots or
less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for OHZ011-012-
     089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Lombardy
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Lombardy



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