Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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970
FXUS61 KCLE 200215
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
915 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of lows and upper disturbances will move northeast across
the Ohio Valley through the weekend and into the middle of next
week. The last low on wednesday will pull a strong cold front across
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Have continued to slow down the onset of the precip. The precip
is having a hard time making eastward progress and it will likely
be close to morning before it reaches KCLE. Have made adjustments
as needed. Temps should be about at their lows with a rebound of a
few degrees expected by daybreak.


Previous...A dissipating low will move northeast into the area by
daybreak bringing a band of shra ne into much of the cwa by 6 am.
Temps may initially drop to 32 in some spots in the ne but are
expected to start to rise as the clouds thicken before possible
precip arrives so just expecting rain as the precip type. Areas in
the sw will see the most rain with a third to locally a half an
inch.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The band of deeper moisture and lift with the low and warm front
will shift ne out of the cwa by late fri after producing a quarter
to a third of an inch of rainfall in the ne half where the rain
will last the longest.

Moisture in the lower part of the atmosphere will hang on thru
saturday but with lack of a focus for lift only sct light shra or
sprinkles should occur.

Another upper wave will rotate from texas ne into nc sun thru sun
night. This will provide increased lift to support more sct shra
later sat night and sun with the better focus over the se closer
to the track of the upper system. However...there are model
differences in how far of a nw track and how strong the low will be
so we will still need a few more model runs before high confidence
in the sun and sun night forecast can be achieved.

Temps will stay above normal with just rain as the precip type.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The ECMWF and GFS are in fairly good agreement with taking a low
across the Deep South and then up the East Coast Monday. This track
would keep the majority of the precipitation off to the east of the
area, though a few showers could still reach into far eastern Ohio
and northwest Pennsylvania. A few snowflakes could mix in with the
rain.

A short-wave ridge will then move across the Ohio Valley Tuesday.
There should be plenty of low level moisture trapped under the
subsidence aloft that we will see mostly cloudy skies, but still
above normal temperatures. A few light showers or drizzle will also
be possible, especially across far northeast Ohio into Pennsylvania.

The next low moves in Tuesday night into Wednesday. It will bring a
chance of showers to the entire area through Wednesday night. A bit
of snow could mix in at times both Tuesday night and Wednesday
night, especially across the higher terrain in northeast Ohio and
northwest Pennsylvania.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Patchy areas of low ceilings still lingering across the area will
give way to more lower ceilings as low pressure moves northeast
across the area. The storm system will bring rain to the
area overnight and tomorrow along with some IFR to MVFR
visibilities. Winds will gradually shift around to a southerly
direction as warmer air pushes north across the area.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Sunday continuing into Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively light winds will persist across Lake Erie through the
weekend. Southerly winds this afternoon will turn to the east
tonight. Winds will veer to the southwest by Friday afternoon and
remain southerly into Saturday night. Winds shift around to the east
and northeast by Sunday and continue into next week as a low moves
off to the east of the area. The current forecast keeps northeast
winds below Small Craft Advisory criteria for Sunday into Monday,
though this will be something to keep an eye on.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/Kubina
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Mottice
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Mottice



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