Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 251349
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
949 AM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weakening cold front will move across the region today. High
pressure from the upper midwest will slide across the lower Great
Lakes through mid week. A cold front is expected to sag south to
near Lake Erie on Thursday. Low pressure is expected to develop
across the midwest and move east across the area Friday into
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Difficult to find the weak cold front. There is a prefrontal
trough from eastern Lake Erie across northeast Ohio. There may
also be an outlfow boundary from the thunderstorm complex that
crossed Ontario earlier this morning. The true cold front looks to
be where the dew points drop off across western Michigan and
northwest Indiana. A bit of a wait and see as far as which
boundary spawns new thunderstorms. Made some minor adjustments to
the pops for today but the overall forecast is similar with the
highest pops across the southeast counties from Youngstown to
Canton to Millersburg and Mount Vernon. The risk of storms should
taper off near the lakeshore as the afternoon goes on. We can
probably see enough duration of sunshine to get temperatures to
the upper 80s/near 90 except up the east lakeshore where the west
wind will come onshore. No other changes for the mid morning
update.

Previous "Today" Discussion...
Outflow from a nearly dissipated MCS has moved into western Ohio
early this morning. This boundary has cause the development of a
few thunderstorms near Toledo. Expect there will be additional
isolated to scattered development along outflow boundaries through
at least mid morning. We will then await the arrival of a
weakening cold front that should sweep across northern OH and NW
PA through the afternoon. So after the morning isolated to
scattered thunderstorms there may be a brief lull until we can get
enough heating ahead of the frontal boundary to pop any new
thunderstorms. Current thinking is that this isolated to scattered
coverage will mainly be near and south of a line from Marion to
Meadville. These chances will shift southeastward with the frontal
boundary through the afternoon.

It still will be a humid day until the cold front passes. All
locations should still be in the mid to upper 80s for highs. This
combined with the humidity will cause heat index values in the
lower to maybe middle 90s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front should be south of the County Warning Area (CWA) during
the evening hours with high pressure beginning to build into the
area in its wake. Dry conditions will then persist into Wednesday
night. The area of high pressure will weaken as another weak cold
front sags into the area on Thursday. Not all that much moisture
to lift ahead of the front but there could be some
isolated/scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening.
The better chances will arrive late thursday night into Friday as
a ripple of low pressure moves along the frontal boundary that
stalls over the area.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly above seasonal averages
through the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The slight dip in the jet stream/relaxation of the upper ridge will
hold through the weekend. A presence of a couple weak disturbances
and a nearly stationary frontal boundary will necessitate low pops
for Friday and Saturday and possibly Sunday as well. Broad brushed
precip chances as timing this far out not possible. Temperatures
will be seasonable.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Cold front still northwest of the area...from central Lake Huron
to central IL. This will be passing across the area today and may
spark new showers/thunderstorms. Coverage is not expected to be
great and therefore only included VCSH at all sites except ERI
where a VCTS was mentioned. VFR outside of any showers and
thunderstorms and outside of early morning MVFR vsbys. By late
afternoon/evening the drier air will be winning out and we will
see clearing skies. Winds will shift from the southwest to the
west and northwest with the gradual wind shift that accompanies
the cold front.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR in fog/mist possible each morning. Non-VFR
possible in thunderstorms on Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest flow will increase today ahead of a cold front. There will
be a time this afternoon where waves just offshore across the east
end nearshore waters will likely get to 4 feet. With 2 to 4
capturing most of the day will go without a Small Craft Advisory.
The cold front will come across the lake this evening and bring
winds around to the west and then north while diminishing. High
pressure will then center itself across the Midwest and lower Great
Lakes through mid week. The next front to make it to the lake
arrives Wednesday night...stalling south of the lake to end the
week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik/Mullen
NEAR TERM...Kosarik/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...Oudeman
AVIATION...Oudeman
MARINE...Oudeman



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