Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 152321
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
621 PM EST Mon Jan 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near Detroit will move off to the east tonight while
weakening to leave a trough hanging back into Lake Erie through
Tuesday. High pressure will push up the Ohio Valley Wednesday and
Thursday then weaken and shift into the Southeast for Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Adjusted PoPs to reflect current radar trends. Back edge of
accumulating snow is near Cleveland and will continue to move
eastward over the next several hours. No major changes to the
previous forecast.

Previous discussion...
The clipper low will move off to the east tonight but leave a trough
lingering back into Lake Erie into Tue night. This will mean the
widespread light to locally moderate snow will taper off west to
east tonight into Tue morning as drier, arctic air spreads in from
the west. Total snowfall from this system should end up running from
1 to 3 inches.

The arctic air will cause lake effect conditions to set up for later
Tue and Tue night aided by some wrap moisture dropping SE back into
the area. The snow showers should be relatively light due to the dry
air aloft and ice covering much of the lake.

The other important issue will be cold temps and wind chills. Lows
tonight will get back down into the single digits in the west with
wind chill readings getting close to minus 10 for a brief period at
the end of the night. Highs on Tue will only rise into the teens
then lows Tue night should drop into the single digits for the whole
area. Winds are expected to get light enough so that wind chill
readings won`t be significantly different than the actual temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The upper level trough should be east of the region by Wednesday
afternoon with the nuisance snow showers gradually ending. Some lake
enhanced snow showers will likely persist across extreme NE OH NW PA
into Wednesday evening. It then looks as if we will begin a warming
trend with dry conditions anticipated Thursday into Friday.

Wednesday will be the coldest day of the short term with Highs in
the teens to lower 20s. Warmer Thursday into Friday. Highs by Friday
afternoon should be in the lower to middle 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure south of the area will slowly slide off to the east
Thursday night through Friday night. This will bring dry conditions
to the region with temperatures warming to near normal by Friday
afternoon.

Warm air advection will take place Saturday as a deep low develops
over the Southern Plains. Not sure there will be enough moisture
around to get any warm air advection showers, but will continue with
slight chance PoPs for now during the day Saturday. With
temperatures warming into the 40s Saturday, expect any precipitation
that does develop to be in the form of rain, possibly mixed with a
few snowflakes early.

The warm air advection regime will continue Saturday night into
Sunday. Temperatures Saturday night will remain nearly steady in the
upper 30s/lower 40s. Sunday will see temperatures rise to around 50
degrees. Rain chances will increase into Sunday, but there is still
plenty of uncertainty with the exact timing and strength of this
system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Cigs will continue to be MVFR as low level moisture hangs
around thru Tue. Snow showers will continue to impact eastern
terminals into early tonight before the snow ends from west to
east. Expect IFR conditions in these snow showers. There could
be a brief 3 to 4 hour window tonight where enough dry air moves
in most areas to scatter out clouds and improve to VFR
conditions, but this won`t last long as MVFR conditions would
quickly return.

SE to south winds 5 to 10 knots will gradually veer around to
the SW to west tonight thru Tue morning.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely Tue afternoon through Wed with a gradual
shift into mainly just the snowbelt on Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
Clipper storm system will move across the area Tonight with
southeast to south winds shifting to the southwest and increasing in
the wake of a cold front. Winds of 15 to 20 knots will be common on
the lake Tuesday into Tuesday night. There may be a brief decrease
in wind speeds Wednesday morning but as high pressure ridges toward
the lake from the Tennessee River Valley Wednesday afternoon into
Thursday the pressure gradient will tighten. Southwesterly winds may
increase to 25 to 30 knots Wednesday night and persist into Thursday
night.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/Mottice
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...Mottice
MARINE...Mullen



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