Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 311924
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
324 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ONTARIO FORCING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
UPPER LEVEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME SUPPORT ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION ALSO MOVING EAST WITH THE TROUGH AT
THE SURFACE.

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED.

TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH SOME
INTERIOR UPPER 50S. WINDS OFF THE LAKE SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES A
BIT WARMER ALONG THE LAKE SHORE IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS IN EFFECT WILL
DEEPENING OF THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. AS A
RESULT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
ONTARIO CANADA FORCING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SPREAD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A TRAILING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL ALSO BE A MINOR FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY. SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE GOING FOR THAT
PERIOD. BUT IN THE MEAN TIME...EXPECTING FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE ADVANCING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE
AREA.  A BIT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS HIGH BUILDS NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. SLIGHT COOL DOWN WILL
OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS TUESDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOWING A CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA DIPPING SOUTH INTO
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS OF COURSE WILL BRING AN END TO
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION.  AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTH. WEDNESDAY THE FRONT STALLS NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. FOR NOW WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE REGION AS IT APPEARS THAT A WAVE WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. IF IT MOVES A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
WEDNESDAY COULD END UP DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO OUR
NORTH.  FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY HOWEVER THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS EAST.
WPC IS LEANING MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF IN CONTINUING TO BUILD HIGH
PRESSURE SSE OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY VS THE GFS WHICH DEVELOPS ANOTHER UPPER LOW INTO THE
WESTERN LAKES BY FRIDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL GO CLOSE TO WPC TEMPS AND POPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. FOLLOWING BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE AREA IS CAPPED MORE OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER
CONCERN IS THAT CAP MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS
ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 22Z-00Z TIME FRAME. FOR NOW WILL BRING IN
VCSH IN THE WEST AND WELL AS KERI. MAY NEED TO INCREASE THREAT
BACK TO VCTS AND INCREASE COVERAGE BUT FOR NOW WILL REMAIN
CONSERVATIVE. EXPECT VFR MOSTLY CLEAR LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY IN
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OFF ERIE
COUNTY PA THROUGH THE EVENING.  WAVES IN THAT REGION HAVE BEEN
REPORTED AT 4 FEET WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID
TO NEAR 20KTS. OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN ALLOWING WAVES TO
DIMINISH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
SATURDAY.  CONCERNED ABOUT SOUTHWEST WINDS ONCE AGAIN DRIVING WAVES
TO NEAR 4 FEET ON THE EAST END FOR NOW WILL KEEP WAVES 1-3 OR 2-4
THERE SATURDAY. LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LAKE
MAINLY MONDAY.  WILL POSSIBLY NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT AND MONDAY AS WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.
TUESDAY WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE WEST AS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVES
EAST THROUGH EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA ACROSS THE LAKES. BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LOMBARDY
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK



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