Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 250548
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
148 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL WEAKEN
SLIGHTLY AS A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ENCROACHES FROM THE
WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING....FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRETCH OF HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STILL
THINK PARTLY CLOUDY WILL WORK MOST AREAS. MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMPS AS WELL.


PREVIOUS...HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK TO CLIMB CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO
INCREASE ON SCHEDULE AS MOISTURE FROM A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS IS DEFLECTED AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS. LIGHT RETURNS CAN BE SEEN IN COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY JUST TO
THE NORTH OF TOLEDO...BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS REACHING THE
GROUND AS HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS FAIRLY DRY. EVEN
THOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES PERHAPS A TRACE AMOUNT OF
QPF OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST...EXPECT THE BULK
OF THIS RAIN/MOISTURE TO MISS THE AREA AND STREAM OFF INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN. CANT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A QUICK SPRINKLE IN THE
WEST...BUT CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW...SO JUST WENT WITH CLOUDY SKIES
OVERNIGHT IN THESE PARTS. ALL IN ALL THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MILD OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND DEEP INTO
THE GOMEX AND PUSH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN US AND
INTO OHIO. FAVORABLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL LEND ITSELF TO PWATS
ABOVE 1.60 AND GREATER AND DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S.
DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE...THERE IS NO REAL FOCUS IN THE ATMOSPHERE
FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MONDAY. SB CAPES WILL GENERALLY
BE LESS THAN 500 J PER KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE 25 KNOTS OR LESS.
ALL THIS SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND BE PULSE-LIKE. COVERED
THIS IN THE GRIDS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE BY
15Z MON AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING.

AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE CLEARS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...SKIES
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE WEST. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NEXT BATCH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN A SIMILAR FASHION AS MONDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL
RIDE UP THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE WITH A SPEED MAX ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING WAVE.
BUT THEN AGAIN...THERE IS STILL NO REAL FOCUS FOR LIFT TO REALLY GET
THINGS GOING. NONETHELESS THE GRIDS REFLECT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
THAN MONDAY. RAIN LOOKS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER TOO INTO WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK SHEAR LINE WILL GLANCE
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND TURN THE WIND BRIEFLY NORTHWEST. SOME
DRYING WILL OCCUR TOO WITH DEW POINTS FALLING BACK INTO THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LONG TERM BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
SHOWING NOT A LOT OF FORCING ACROSS THE REGION.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE IN SERN CANADA WHILE ANOTHER WEAK HIGH WILL BE IN THE SERN STATES
PUMPING UP A MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.  A COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.  COULD SEE SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SCATTERED/ISOLATED CONVECTION SO WILL HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS IN PLACE BUT SHOULD BE A DECENT DAY. FRIDAY
THE FRONT ACROSS THE LAKES TURNS WARM AND LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING INTO SERN CANADA.  AN UPPER TROF WILL BEGIN TO SWING
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL LIKELY BE A WEATHER MAKER INTO THE
WEEKEND BUT AGAIN WITH LACK OF FORCING...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST AND DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS BECOME A BIT
OUT OF SYNC WITH THE TIMING WITH THE GFS BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER BRINGING IT IN MORE ON
SUNDAY.  WILL SIDE WITH WPC AND THE MANUAL PROGS IN CHOOSING THE
SLOWER SOLUTION. FOR NOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO HAVE THEM BOOSTED TO LIKELY AT SOME POINT.  TEMPS A
BIT WARMER THAN NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL APPROACH THE TOL/FDY AREA BY 16Z...FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE
HOUR WINDOW WHERE THERE WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE...REACHING CLE/MFD TOWARDS 20Z AND CAK/YNG/ERI BETWEEN
21-02Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED AND WILL LIKELY NOT
IMPACT EVERY SITE. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WHERE BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS RAMP
UP TO 15-20 KNOTS BY 15Z WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS THROUGH 23Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED IN SCT SHRA AND
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS ON MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. NEARSHORE WINDS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 20S ESPECIALLY
WEST THIRD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A AFTERNOON WIND DRIVEN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW 4
FEET. GIVEN THE COLDER WATERS AND WARMER AIR TEMPS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD AT GENERALLY 10 TO 20 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. &&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA/MAYERS
NEAR TERM...MAYERS
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...TK






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