Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 221056
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
556 AM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north across the forecast area today
producing scattered showers and well above normal temperatures.  A
strong cold front will move across the area tonight ushering in more
seasonal conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Removed Ohio counties from the dense fog advisory as warm front
now near the Ohio/PA border, and visibilities have improve
significantly in the warm sector.

Original discussion...
A warm front across Central Ohio is producing scattered showers
across the entire area, as well as dense fog across the Eastern half
of the forecast area.  Expect the warm front to lift NE of the
forecast area by this afternoon taking the showers with it.  Will
start to see some sun and the temperatures will soar into the mid to
upper 50s. A few places could even see 60 degrees if we see enough
sunshine. This is roughly 20 to 25 degrees above normal for this
time of year.  Enjoy the warmer conditions because they are not
going to last.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Models continue to move a low pressure system, now near Kansas City,
across the Central Great Lakes early Tuesday.  Expect rain to spread
across the forecast area overnight ahead of the system  The low will
track NE across the Central Lakes early Tuesday, forcing another
cold front across the forecast area.  High temperatures for the day
will be in the morning with slowly falling temps during the
afternoon.   Rain will begin to transition to rain snow mix or
plain snow by Tuesday evening.   Transition will be so late do not
expect much in the way of accumulation on Tuesday.

The short term begins Tuesday night with models showing low pressure
in srn Quebec and New England with wrap around moisture and cold
advection across the area. Temps at 850mb average around -7 to -8C
on the NAM and ECMWF but are a couple degrees warmer on the GFS.
Either way this will be low enough for snow showers across the area
with the best chance of course in the snowbelt. Expect snow showers
to persist through Wednesday and into Wednesday night in the
snowbelt.  Thursday high pressure will build in from the south.  For
now will continue dry with partly cloudy skies but confidence level
is a bit below 100 percent given we will be experiencing warm
advection/overrunning. As long as airmass is as dry as advertised
partly cloudy will hold. Friday continue to look nice with a
building upper ridge, high pressure to our east and dry air in
place. Expect Wednesday and Thursday near normal Friday above normal
with highs in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term trend shows an upper trough to our west and eventually
moving through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley on Monday.
Confidence, mainly in timing is lower given differences in the new
runs vs yday.  Models now show less amplification with the system
through the period resulting in a more progressive system vs a more
extended period of precipitation. The GFS is faster with the
moisture bring rain into the area Friday night.  Both agree on
Saturday being wet although the GFS being faster dries the west in
the afternoon.  Sunday best precip chances will be east although
will continue with chance pops elsewhere. Monday with cold air in
place will have pops for lake effect snow. Saturday temps above
normal dropping to near or a bit below normal on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/...
Expect conditions to gradually improve MVFR overnight as
scattered showers move in from the west. should see a brief
periods of VFR late this morning into the afternoon as a warm
front lifts NE of the forecast area. Showers will develop from
the west this afternoon ahead of approaching cold front.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR for much of Tuesday through Wednesday. Gusty
winds by Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
No headlines expected through the forecast period although we do get
close to southwest gales Tuesday evening.  For today into tonight
expect south/southeast flow turning southwest towards morning
Tuesday. Speeds generally 10 to 15 knots. Tuesday southwest flow
will increase through the day to near 30 knots by evening as low
pressure moves northeast through the central lakes. Winds will turn
northwest behind the low decreasing to 10 to 20 knots by Wednesday
morning. Winds will decrease further Wedneday night and Thursday as
high pressure moves over the lakes. Friday look for south winds
increasing to around 15 knots as high pressure covers the eastern
seaboard and low pressure approaches the northern lakes.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ002-003.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...DJB
SHORT TERM...DJB/TK
LONG TERM...Adams/TK
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...TK



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