Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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379
FXUS61 KCLE 231710
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
110 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Stationary high pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes will finally
weaken and shift east Tuesday. The first in a series of cold fronts
will push east through the area Wednesday with a second following
early Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No significant changes to forecast for 930 update.

Original discussion...
Patchy morning fog and afternoon heat will be the only weather
issues of significance thru Sunday as high pressure remains in
control. Highs today should run from the mid 80s at the snowbelt
lakeshore to around 90 for inland Northern Ohio. Highs on Sunday are
expected to be similar.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Persistent ridge aloft will gradually shift east through the period.
Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue for
the first half of the week. We will finally start to see an increase
in high clouds on Monday from Maria as the hurricane moves north off
the east coast. The thickness may be sufficient to keep temperatures
a degree or two cooler than the weekend so will keep forecast
highs in the upper 80s for most locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The trough currently over the Intermountain region will move
northeast around the ridge into eastern Canada on Wednesday. The
ECMWF remains faster than the GFS/Canadian but is favored given that
it`s handling of Maria is closest to the NHC forecast. This will
bring a weak cold front across the area on Wednesday with no more
than scattered thunderstorms expected Wednesday afternoon. A surface
ridge builds in from the west behind the front but some clouds and
possibly a stray shower remain possible off Lake Erie for Thursday.
A stronger trough will slide southeast out of Canada on Friday
bringing a push of cooler air to end the week with another chance
of showers. Highs by Friday only expected in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Saturday THROUGH Thursday/...
VFR conditions under clear skies will continue today as high
pressure remains anchored over the Eastern Great Lakes.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in patchy morning fog.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will remain in place
through Tuesday with good marine conditions continuing. Land/lake
breezes can be expected each day. Winds of 10 knots or less combined
with a stable marine layer will limit wave heights to less
than 2 feet.

A pattern change is expected by Wednesday as the first in a series
of cold fronts moves across the lake. Models showing some
differences in the timing and strengths of the fronts as a trough
cross the region but increasing winds and a transition to below
normal temperatures can be expected to end the week.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Adams
NEAR TERM...Adams/DJB
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...KEC



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