Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 280452
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1152 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING OHIO AND LAKE ERIE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND THEN OFF THE EAST COAST ON SUNDAY. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ON MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE FRONT WAS CROSSING NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AS OF THE OVERNIGHT
UPDATE AND WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. WINDS WERE A BIT GUSTY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TIGHTENED UP THE FORECAST POP GRADIENT OF THE BACK END OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD BASED ON CURRENT MOVEMENT AND MESO MODEL
PROJECTIONS. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD END IN THE TOLEDO AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. THERE HAS BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF
MIXED PRECIPITATION IN INDIANA AS THE COLDER AIR FILTERS IN SO
CANNOT SAY THAT THERE WOULD NOT BE WET FLAKES OR A LITTLE SLEET OR
SNIZZLE AT THE BACK END OF THE EVENT BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY NOT
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING AND TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP BELOW FREEZING SO
NO RISK OF BLACK ICE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA ON
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE EAST.  VERY DRY AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS SHOULD BRING
AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION.  A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY.  A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT IS FORECAST TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  THERE IS
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT AND I DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
PRECIPITATION WITH IT.  HOWEVER...THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND I SEE NO REASON TO
REMOVE IT AT THIS TIME.  TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL DROP TO
MORE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE TRADITIONAL LAKE
EFFECT SNOW BELT AREAS ONLY. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.
BY FRIDAY A DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERN STATES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND SPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. THE PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS SNOW OR MIXED...AND
POSSIBLY CHANGE TO RAIN ON SATURDAY....HOWEVER WE STILL HAVE
SEVERAL DAYS TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL
MATERIALIZE. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY NEAR NORMAL AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 05Z A COLD FRONT WAS APPROACHING CLE AND MFD. THE FRONT WILL BE
TO ERI BY 12Z. SOME SHOWERS WERE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AND
JUST BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION WILL END SOME SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN A
LITTLE SLEET MAY OCCUR. IFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR NEAR AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS IN THE SNOW AND THEN BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO
VFR STARTING EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER NW OH. VISIBILITIES WILL
MAINLY MVFR IN SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE ERIE TONIGHT RESULTING IN HIGHER
WINDS AND WAVES STRONG ENOUGH FOR US TO POST A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE LAKE THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR LEZ147>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...KIELTYKA
MARINE...BC





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