Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 070754
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
354 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THISAFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS MADE DECENT PROGRESS OVERNIGHT AND MOST MODELS
SHOW THE FRONT GETTING INTO NORTHWEST OHIO BY THE MIDDAY HOURS.
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME RESIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MAKE THERE
WAY INTO NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING. THINGS GET MORE COMPLICATED
IN THE AFTERNOON AS MOST OF OUR HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW NEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO. MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO SHOW A
WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON THE FRONT WHICH WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT. THE CONSENSUS HAS THE FRONT ONLY
NEAR THE I-71 CORRIDOR AT 00Z.

THE EASTERN COUNTIES EAST OF I-71 WOULD SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS SINCE THEY WILL HAVE TIME TO GET
UNSTABLE. SEVERE WEATHER INDICIES ARE PROGGED TO BECOME REASONABLY
HIGH. THE LONGER IT TAKES FOR THE STORMS TO DEVELOP THE MORE
THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY WOULD SEEMINGLY BE AVAILABLE. THE JET
DYNAMICS ARE NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY A SLIGHT MID LEVEL JET
AVAILABLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR WATER BECOMES IMPRESSIVE THOUGH...THE
STORY OF THE SUMMER...WITH PW PROGGED TO INCREASE ABOVE TWO INCHES
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BACK BUILDING AND REPEAT THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES FROM AROUND MANSFIELD TO
YOUNGSTOWN AND MEADVILLE SOUTHEAST. DISCUSSED A FLOOD WATCH BUT
WILL WAIT TO SEE HOW WIDESPREAD THE PROBLEMS MAY BECOME. FLOOD
THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS OFTEN END UP BEING VERY LOCALIZED. WILL
INCLUDE HEAVY RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

HIGHS MAY HOLD IN THE 70S AROUND TOLEDO WHERE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
ARRIVE EARLIEST...GENERALLY MID 80S ELSEWHERE...A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE. TEMPS...OF COURSE...WILL COOL WITH THE ONSET OF THE
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS PROBLEMATIC AND IT WILL NOT BE FAR
AWAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN STALLING THE FRONT OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN OHIO. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW AND CLOUDS. THE MODELS HAVE
ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING ANOTHER WAVE ON THE FRONT LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO POST A LOT OF QPF ON
THURSDAY BUT NOT SO SURE THERE IS NOT SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK
INVOLVED. HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY COULD STAY IN THE 60S WHERE
IT IS CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS BUT DO NOT WANT TO FORECAST QUITE THAT
COOL GIVEN THE LONG DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR. FORECAST HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER/MID 70S. TRIED TO DOWNPLAY THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. KEPT A SMALL CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AS WARM ADVECTION REDEVELOPS. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AND WILL BEGIN TO RETURN AS A WARM
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HOW THE WEEKEND WILL TURN OUT EXACTLY IS STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN. AS
FAR AS THE BIG PICTURE IS CONCERNED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY...THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE BETWEEN A RIDGE ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE U.S. AND AN EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A
WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVER
THE WEEKEND. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE GULF COAST STATES EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH ANY
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND COULD BRING SHRA/TS AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA. A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL DIAL BACK THE HUMIDITY A BIT. SO FORECAST READS FAIRLY
GENERIC FOR SATURDAY ONWARD WITH DAILY PRECIP CHANCES...BUT THAT IS
THE BEST THAT CAN BE DONE AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT AS OF 05Z WAS JUST REACHING KMKE. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH IT FROM CENTRAL MI BACK INTO
CENTRAL IL. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TODAY...EVENTUALLY
LAYING NEARLY WEST-EAST ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO BY 06Z WED. SO WHILE
FRONT PUSHED THROUGH TOL MID AFTERNOON IT WILL TAKE MUCH LONGER
FOR IT TO CLEAR CAK. FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...WITH THE RAIN
YNG HAD EXPECTING SOME MVFR TO IFR FOG THROUGH DAWN. ALL OTHERS
WILL BE VFR. EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND CU WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP TOO. AT FIRST IT MAY BE
MVFR...BUT IMPROVING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. SHOWERS ENTER NW OH AS
EARLY AS LATE MORNING...WITH THUNDER AN INCREASING THREAT AS THE
DAY GOES ON. EVERYONE SHOULD GET SOME THUNDER OUT OF THIS
TODAY...WITH A TRANSITION TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES. OCCASIONAL IFR WITHIN TS
BUT WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPS WITH OR CLOSELY AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SSW WINDS WILL GUST UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD GET A LITTLE FIESTY AND HAVE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
40 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD NON VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS IN
THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL OHIO.

&&

.MARINE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
LAKE FROM EARLY/MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL COME AROUND
TO THE NORTH FOR TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO
ON WEDNESDAY AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT
DRAWING IT INTO NORTHERN OHIO ON THURSDAY. IT WILL LIKELY NOT GET
AS FAR NORTH AS LAKE ERIE...BUT IT IS STILL A POSSIBILITY.
THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED A NORTHEAST FLOW ON THE LAKE FOR
WEDNESDAY...COMING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY. THE FLOW
APPEARS TO BE THE STRONGEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND IF SO
THEN THE WEST HALF WILL BE CHOPPY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS
THE LAKE FRIDAY WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE LAKE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN


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