Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 302315

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
715 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

A cold front will move south across the area late tonight and
Wednesday followed by a secondary cold front Wednesday night. High
pressure will build in from the north on Friday and slowly move east
through the Holiday Weekend.


Convection struggling to move eastward into the drier airmass this
evening. The outflow boundaries will continue to interact over
Indiana and NW Ohio through sunset. So some of these showers/thunderstorms
will attempt to move into the western County Warning Area from
Toledo to Findlay. Have covered this potential with a scattered
evening thunderstorm mention.

We will then monitor the potential for additional development
along a frontal boundary that will move toward Lake Erie toward

Previous discussion...
Mid and high clouds from upstream convection will continue to
spread east across Lake Erie and portions of the forecast area
this evening. Regional radars show scattered showers have fired
around the fringes of the convective debris cloud in Michigan
ahead of the cold front and in NE Indiana where dewpoints are near
70 and ML CAPE values are near 1500 J/kg. A few of these showers
may trickle into extreme nw Ohio late this afternoon/early this

Convection has continued to dive south across Illinois this
afternoon and that may initially disrupt the moisture advection into
the region for tonight. However, a ribbon of higher theta-e air is
expected to advect overhead tonight ahead of the approaching cold
front. Shortwave energy will stream overhead and may also kick off a
few showers and thunderstorms farther south. The highest coverage
should be focused ahead of the cold front over Lake Erie after
midnight with chances decreasing to the south.

Dewpoints have dropped to near 50 degrees across portions of
northeast Ohio but all areas will see an increase overnight. Lows
are expected to range from 60 degrees in the east to near 70 NW Ohio
and near Lake Erie.


Frontal boundary will sink south across the area on Wednesday with
showers ending from north to south behind the front. Cloud cover
will limit instability and cut back on the amount of
thunderstorms...although somewhat better coverage expected in the
south during the afternoon.

Secondary push of cold air will arrive late Wednesday night and
bring below normal temperatures for the first day of September.
Highs on Thursday and Friday will be in the 70s for all areas. Instability
over Lake Erie should be sufficient for Lake effect clouds but
only expecting low coverage of any lake effect showers given a
layer of very dry air above 800mb. High pressure builds in by
Friday with any lingering cu clearing through the afternoon.


A dry holiday weekend is expected with a warming trend. Models are
consistent is keeping a short wave ridge over the lower Great Lakes
through the weekend with very dry air in place. Cool 850 mb
temperatures near 12C will warm to 17-19C by Monday afternoon. This
will allow high temperatures to rise from the upper 70s on Saturday
to the mid to upper 80s on Monday.

Mostly clear skies can be expected until Monday when there will be
some increase in clouds as the ridge weakens and shifts to the
south. There is a small chance of showers Monday night and Tuesday
over Lake Erie.


.AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
The TSRA NW OH and NRN Indiana will gradually diminish to showers
after sunset as they move across the forecast area. More showers
on tap tomorrow morning ahead of a cold front that will push
across the forecast area.

OUTLOOK...vfr expected.


Tranquil conditions will continue on the lake this evening with just
onshore flow for a few hours until near sunset. Light southwest
winds are expected tonight ahead of a cold that will approach the
north side of the lake toward morning. The front will reach the
south side of the lake by mid afternoon and cold advection will
gradually increase as winds increase from the northerly direction.
with lake being rather warm near 25-26C and 850 mb temperatures
expected to drop to 8-9C we can expected a deep well mixed boundary
to develop and allow winds and resultant waves to increase Wednesday
night and remain elevated into Friday when the pressure gradient
will relax.

We will likely issue a small craft advisory for Wednesday night and
continue it into Friday.

By the weekend...high pressure will have built over the lower Great
Lakes and allowed the pressure gradient to weaken substantially so
that another tranquil period is expected with light winds.




LONG TERM...LaPlante
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