Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 180133
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
933 PM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will track northeast across the Upper Great Lakes
tonight with a cold front moving east across the area. The low will
continue northeast into Canada with high pressure expanding up the
Ohio Valley Friday night into early Saturday. A secondary upper
trough will swing across the Great Lakes region on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Things have quieted down. Continue to get pictures and now even some
video of the tornado in Trumbull County. For the overnight
hours will see just a few stray showers the next few hours. Some
periods of mostly clear skies are likely but the flavor of the
night in the west will be partly cloudy. Further east the clouds
will be greater in coverage. Made some very minor adjustments
to the temperatures as well. Still some 70s dew points but those
should dip into the middle 60s most locations overnight.

Previous...Vigorous convection has not been able to get
established this afternoon along the line in northern Ohio. The
convection has outpaced the better height falls to the west and
convective debris cloud has outpaced the line and had a limiting
effect on destabilization. We will continue to monitor for any
stronger cells that develop as we head into peak heating, but
the severe weather threat appears to be isolated in nature. Rain
will continues to move northeast and most areas will see some
showers with just scattered thunderstorms as this line continues
to the east.

Much drier air aloft spread in from the west overnight as the mid-
level dryslot wraps around the trough. High dewpoints will make
conditions feel humid overnight and some areas of stratus could
develop as the high cloud clears out aloft. Patchy fog also possible
but not expecting it to get too bad with southwest winds of 5 to 10
mph.

Low pressure will continue to track northeast into Canada on Friday
with breezy west southwest winds gusting to around 20 mph. Trimmed
back any chance of rain on Friday to just a low chance in NW PA.
Expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies as a healthy cu field
develops with daytime heating. High pressure will expand up the Ohio
Valley Friday night. Clouds will begin to increase late ahead of
the next trough approaching from the west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A trough is progged to move east across the cwa on Sat. Upper
support looks good but surface moisture and focusing is weaker so
will keep pops in chc category. A few leftover shra could still be
in NW PA Sat night, otherwise high pressure spreads in from the west
and should dominate thru Mon and keep conditions dry. Temps should
start out near to a little below normal Sat then warm to be above
normal by Mon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fast moving upper level trough will push east across the eastern
United States during the extended periods Monday night through
Wednesday.  This will cause a fast moving surface low pressure to
race across the Great Lakes region during the same time period.
Models are suggesting the low pressure system will begin to spread
some moisture into the local area Monday night into Tuesday with a
chance for showers and thunderstorms along the cold front.  Once
storm system moves east of the area, a large area of high pressure
will begin to nose southeast toward the local area for the latter
half of the forecast period.  Warm air advection will take place in
advance of the low pressure but after frontal passage, we should see
some cold air advection.  Possibility exists for some lake effect or
better yet lake enhance rain showers after frontal passage across
the northeast.  Would not be surprised with cold air sliding south
across the area that we see some waterspouts and cold air funnels
during the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
The excitement in the KYNG area should be over shortly. Showers
and storms will also impact KERI the next hour or so as well.
After that just a few stray showers are expected through 03z or
so. Conditions will remain VFR till late tonight. Some MVFR cigs
are expected to develop at the east and southeast end of the
area by 09z. Similar development is expected over the NW end of
the area by daybreak. These lower clouds will persist a few
hours before lifting to VFR. It is possible that a brief period
of IFR cigs is possible at KYNG. Skies will clear by the end of
the TAF period as drier air finally arrives. South to southwest
winds will remain up around 10 knots most of the night so any
fog that forms will be very very patchy. Winds will become
westerly and gusty by midday Friday.

OUTLOOK...Areas of Non-VFR possible in showers Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
The cold front moving across the lake tonight will gradually veer
winds from SW to West thru Fri afternoon with speeds increasing to
15 to 25 knots eventually bringing 4 foot or better waves into the
nearshore Fri aftn. Winds will slowly settle down into Sat night
while wavering back and forth as a trough crosses the lake Sat. High
pressure will tend to dominate Sun into Mon with winds eventually
turning out of the SW by Tue and increasing to 10 to 20 knots ahead
of the next cold front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/Kubina
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM...Lombardy
AVIATION...Kubina
MARINE...Adams



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