Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 232309
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
609 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure near the North Carolina coast will move off shore
this evening and then track northeast along the coastline through
Tuesday night. To our west, high pressure in the central plains
will briefly ridge into the region on Tuesday. The next storm
system will move into the Central Great Lakes from the Plains on
Wednesday. A cold front will move through late Wednesday and
usher in colder air Thursday through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Satellite shows breaks in the clouds near KERI and across the
eastern third of the lake but this should fill in over the next
several hours. Otherwise clouds will continue through the night.
Follow the HRRR forecast reflectivity trends into the night
showing the best rain chances remaining east third as flow around
the east coast low rotates moisture back into the area. Will
however continue with chance pops west half into the night. Pops
decrease overnight west to east as moisture finally begins to pull
out. There is some question as to ptype overnight. The NAM
continues to bring 850mb temps down to -1 to -2C late this evening
and then temps rise to 0 to -1C by morning. The GFS drops just
below 0C after 06z. Dont really think this is low enough to put a
lot of snow in the forecast so aside from a possible early
morning mix far NERN OH and NWRN PA probably in the higher
terrain...kept precip all rain. Low temps in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low should be off the New Jersey coast Tuesday morning
with a surface trough hanging west across the area. Moisture will
still be over the area but much of the forcing should be east.
Will begin with chance pops east as well as chance pops into the
area from the northwest along the trough axis. For the afternoon
expect mostly dry conditions under cloudy skies as the ridge
builds in from the west. The next storm system will move through
the central plains to the central Great Lakes Wednesday. There is
a very small chance that precip ahead of the associated warm front
moves into the western counties before dawn. Will have a slight
chance pop for the far west late Tuesday night. Otherwise rain
chances increase through the morning as a warm front/cold front
combination move across the area from the west. Will have chance
pops continuing through the afternoon. Any precip with the cold
front should move east of the area Wednesday evening however more
moisture moves in from the west overnight so will have chance to
likely pops. Thursday will continue chance pops most places and
likely pops in the snowbelt as lake enhancement likely occurs with
850mb temps down to -7C. Temps mild through Wednesday then they
drop back to near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Winter will have returned by friday with the airmass likely to
slowly get colder each day thru sunday. Lake effect snow showers
should occur each day but look to try and come to an end by monday
evening. Weak upper systems rotating se thru the area may also lead
to a little snow shower activity for other areas also.

No one day appears to have real heavy snowfall but in a cumulative
sense, areas in the snowbelt will likely start to see some
significant total accumulations by monday. Temps look to be about
normal friday then trend to be a little below normal for sunday and
monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions will spread over entire forecast
area and linger through the overnight as low pressure...off the SE
coast...moves north. conditions will slowly improve from the west
Tuesday afternoon as high pressure moves across the upper Ohio
Valley.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR Wednesday into Friday. Rain on Wednesday will
give way to snow Wednesday night. The synoptic snow will end from
the west Thursday afternoon. Then...lake effect snow will develop
in the snowbelt east of Cleveland and continue into Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NE winds with marginal sca conditions for the middle of the lake
will settle down later tonight into tue as a ridge of high pressure
shifts east across the lake. A strong low will move ne across mi
pulling a strong cold front across lake erie wednesday. South winds
should increase to 15 to 25 knots ahead of the cold front shifting
to wsw then west with frontal passage wed and increasing to 30 knots
with a possibility of 35 knot gales. Winds and waves should
gradually diminish some thu into fri as the strong low shifts
further ne away from the lakes.

&&


.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ144>148.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...Adams
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...Adams


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