Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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796
FXUS61 KCLE 231106
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
706 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered over the upper Ohio Valley will move off
the east coast later Today. An area of low pressure will slowly
move from the Mississippi Valley across the Great Lakes
Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure will briefly build over
the region Friday into Saturday but another frontal system is
expected over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Weak high pressure remains in control this morning. Satellite
showing lot`s of high clouds over the area so any sunshine
today will be filtered. Southerly flow will return to the entire
area today which will push temperatures a little warmer than
they were on Monday even with the thicker clouds. Given the
weak pressure gradient a lake breeze is likely this afternoon
and locations along the immediate lakeshore could be chilly. As
it stands have again used a blend of guidance temps.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Have continued the recent trend of slowing the onset of precip
down. We should be able to squeak out a dry night and most of
the area will remain dry into Wednesday afternoon. Some question
as to whether NW PA will see any showers before early evening.
The models continue to have some differences handling the track
and movement of the low set to move into the region on
Wednesday. These differences should have little impact on the
practical weather as widespread precip is expected by tomorrow
evening. Forecast soundings show some instablilty and CAPE
tomorrow morning but once the steadier rain starts things should
stabilize. The previous forecast already had thunder mentioned
for Wednesday so will leave it in the forecast although I have
trimmed it back some. Showery weather will continue Wednesday
night and again Thursday. The low itself should finally move
off to the east Thursday night. Drier air will work into the
western end of the area Thursday night behind the low.
But...locations downwind of the lake could see some instability
showers into Friday evening.

Temps for the most part will be seasonable. Highs Wednesday will
be warmest in the east since it will take longer for the precip
to arrive. Thursday will be a gray day with temps a tad below
normal but seasonable readings are again expected by Friday.
Have used a blend of guidance temps.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Little change to the long term forecast with active pattern bringing
periodic precip chances through the holiday weekend. Model
differences lend to lower confidence during this period, with low
pressure tracking somewhere through the region Saturday night
through Sunday. Then, a series of shortwaves are expected to rotate
through the Great Lakes Sunday night through Monday as upper low
settles southeast into the northern Lakes. Will hold with generally
slight chance/chance pops through much of the period, with likely
pops Sunday as models somewhat agree on decent rain chances that
day. Temperatures will be seasonable to slightly above normal during
this period, with cooler temps possible just after this period
toward the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period as surface ridge
axis remains just east of the region. Scattered to broken
cirrus will affect the terminals through the day, with some mid
level ceilings pushing in after 00Z. Light gradient will allow
for lake breeze to push into KCLE and KERI this afternoon with
winds flipping out of the north-northeast, otherwise winds will
remain light and predominantly south-southeasterly through the
period. MVFR ceilings expected towards the end of the period,
with SHRA potential just after this TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR likely Wednesday and Thursday in showers and
TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions expected on Lake Erie as surface ridge axis slowly
pushes east of the area today. Southerly flow will decrease through
the morning becoming light and variable, then increasing out of the
east 5 to 10 knots this evening. East northeast flow will increase
to 10 to 20 knots Wednesday as low pressure deepens and tracks
northeast towards the lake. The flow will gradually veer southerly
by Thursday morning and westerly by Thursday evening as the low
lifts north of the lake. Flow will remain westerly through Friday in
the 10 to 15 knot range.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Greenawalt
MARINE...Greenawalt



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