Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 232022
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
322 PM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will move east across the area tonight as a
low pressure system moves from the central Great Lakes to Maine.
Arctic air will move into the area tonight but will be short lived
through Thursday. Another weak trough of low pressure will move east
across the area Wednesday night.  A ridge of high pressure will
build east Thursday and begin to push the arctic air out of the
region.  A warm front will lift northeast across the area Thursday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front is now well east of the area allowing cooler air to move
slowly east into the area.  A trough of low pressure will move east
across the area this evening and the best push of cold air will
arrive late tonight.  Moisture associated with the cyclonic flow
around the surface low pressure system will wrap around and affect
the local area tonight into Wednesday morning.  Some lake effect
snow showers will develop tonight over the northeast as northwest
flow develops.  There should be enough exposed water to allow lake
snow showers to develop.  Generally 1 to 3 inches of snow is
expected in the snowbelt area.

Drier air will push into the local area Wednesday for a brief period
and then another round of moisture will move east into the forecast
area Wednesday night. This moisture will be associated with an upper
level positive vorticity maximum and surface trough. Latest guidance
is hinting at a 25 to 30 percent pop for Wednesday night. I added a
mention of light snow across the area as all of the models show this
feature moving into the region. Only looking at snowfall
accumulations of 2 to 3 tenths at the most Wednesday night.

Temperatures will begin to drop off tonight as colder air arrives
and we should see lows in the lower 20s across the north and upper
20s in the south. Little in the way of recovery expected Wednesday
with highs in the lower 30s in the southwest and lower to middle 20s
in the northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper low over Newfoundland and Labrador will continue to shift
north allowing upper level high pressure to build over the region.
This will result in a warming trend Thursday into Friday with
temperatures between 15 and 20 degrees above normal Friday and
Saturday. Dry weather will prevail across the region through at
least Saturday morning.

An upper trough will approach from the west as an upper low tracks
east into Ontario Province bringing another chance of precipitation
to the area. The GFS is a little faster drawing precipitation north
into the area early Saturday morning while the ECMWF brings the bulk
of the rain later in the day. Either way...the models are now in
better agreement about much of the area at least seeing some rain on
Saturday. We hope to nail down timing in the next day or two.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models in better agreement with a cold front moving across the
region Saturday into Sunday. Most locations will start as rain
Saturday night but should transition to snow at some point Sunday
morning. Models hint at some lake effect snow in the wake of the
storm system but confidence is not high on this at this point in
time. However we do believe there will be some snow showers across
the area until the upper level trough moves east of the region on
Monday. High pressure should take control of the region on Tuesday
with dry conditions anticipated.

Highs may be around 40 degrees on Sunday but seasonal temperatures
are expected Monday into Tuesday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Cold front moved east and out of the area this morning and a few
renegade showers exist near Erie and Youngstown. A post frontal
trough developed over the last few hours over western Ohio and
continues to move east across the area. This feature will be the
focusing mechanism for the development of showers along the
axis of the trough. Eventually, as colder air moves into the
area from the west, the rain will change over to snow in the
northeast as lake effect develops. There is enough water exposed
to allow lake effect to develop at Erie, Akron-Canton, and
Youngstown. Ceilings will continue MVFR and possibly IFR at
times this afternoon through tonight. Some improvement in
ceilings will take place tomorrow morning.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible late Friday night into Saturday
night.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will track northeast into southern Quebec and New
England this evening. Winds will increase out of the southwest on
the lake reaching near 30 knots this evening before turning
northwest and decreasing slowly overnight.  Light northwest flow
will turn southwest Thursday increasing out of the south Friday at
around 15 knots. Look for southwest flow 15 to 20 knots Saturday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lombardy
NEAR TERM...Lombardy
SHORT TERM...Riley
LONG TERM...Mullen
AVIATION...Lombardy
MARINE...Riley


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