737
FXUS61 KCLE 111034
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
634 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will move eastward across Michigan and southern
Ontario today with a cold front crossing the region. A trough
will linger over the region into Saturday night, but expect high
pressure to return Sunday into early Monday. The next system
will approach from the west Monday afternoon or evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The morning showers are right on schedule and should move west
to east through the morning. The uncertainty at this point in
time is how much coverage there will be as the colder air aloft
crosses the region this afternoon. Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms will be scattered at best with greatest chances
this afternoon near and east of a line from Lorain to Marion. It
still looks to be breezy in the wake of the cold front but
gusts should not exceed 35 mph.

Previous Discussion...
Low pressure is expected to move across the central and eastern
Great Lakes today with a cold front move west to east with it.
Lift will increase along and ahead of the cold front with some
assistance of a 5H jet that moves over OH through the day.
Cooler air aloft will also assist with steepening middle level
lapse rates which could lead to some small hail near and east of
I-71 with the stronger convection this afternoon. Fortunately it
doesnt look like enough low level instability for us to worry
about severe thunderstorms. The showers and thunderstorms should
quickly move west to east with the cold front through mid
afternoon. We then will see how long the showers can persist in
the wake of the cold front with some lake enhancement possible
into early Sunday morning across NE OH into NW PA.

It will be a chilly morning across NE OH into NW PA with a few
spots seeing temperatures dip into the upper 30`s with some
patchy frost possible. Elsewhere the increasing clouds and
winds should keep temperatures in the 40`s. Cloud cover, the
rain and the cold front crossing the region will combine to keep
highs down a bit today with a range from the upper 50`s across
inland NW PA to the lower 60`s west. Westerly winds likely
become gusty in the wake of the cold front with a few spots
seeing gusts up to 35 mph. Skies should clear across NW OH
tonight but the flow over the lake should limit the decrease in
cloud cover across NE OH into NW PA until Sunday. Lows tonight
should be in the 40`s.

High pressure gradually takes control of the region on SUnday.
There may be just enough cool air flowing across the lake to
cause a few showers across NW PA. Otherwise cloud cover will be
slow to dissipate and move east, with them lingering the longest
across NE OH into NW PA. Highs range from near 60 across inland
NW PA to the lower 70`s across NW OH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A few light showers are possible across NE OH and NW PA Sunday night
into Monday morning as a boundary settles north of the area. By
Monday morning, another period of unsettled weather will begin as
two low pressure systems have the potential to impact the area. The
first low will move east across James Bay, extending a cold front
south-southwest through the Great Lakes region. The positioning of
this system will allow for the entire area to remain in the warm
sector of the low on Monday, increasing diurnal instability across
the area and allowing for a southwest flow to increase moisture
across the area. As a result, kept at least chance PoPs ahead of the
boundary, increasing to likely PoPs near the frontal passage late
Monday into Tuesday. Between lift from frontogenesis and increased
diurnal instability, expect a few rumbles of thunder to mix in with
the showers. There is no current concern for any of these showers
and storms to become severe at this time. By Tuesday morning, the
aforementioned second low pressure that developed over the southern
Plains will begin to move into the Ohio River Valley. This low is
expected to track east and remain south of the area keeping the CWA
on the cooler side of the low. Chance of showers will continue
through Tuesday as stronger synoptic support from an upper level jet
and shortwave enhance lift across the area. These showers will
gradually diminish from northwest to southeast as the center of the
low shifts towards the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

Warmest temperatures in the period will be on Monday as a WAA regime
is in place, allowing temperatures to climb into the mid to upper
70s. Much cooler temperatures are expected on Tuesday behind the
departing cold front with temperatures only climbing into the low to
mid 60s. Overnight lows will follow a similar trend with Monday
night being the warmest with temperatures only dropping into the mid
50s. Cooler lows in the 40s will impact the eastern portion of the
CWA Sunday night returning into northwestern counties on Tuesday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A few lingering showers associated with the low pressure centered
near the Mid-Atlantic Coast are possible Wednesday morning, but
conditions should gradually dry out as a surface high and upper
level ridge briefly nudge over the area. This high pressure will
persist through Thursday and should keep the area dry before another
shortwave may impact the area for the end of the work week. There is
a good amount of consistency amongst models through Thursday, but
after that there is quite a bit of divergence and thus lower
confidence. Have opted to maintain the chance PoPs on Friday with a
chance of thunder. Temperatures will return to above normal for much
of the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A cold front is expected to sweep west to east across the
region today with southerly winds expected ahead of it. In its
wake westerly winds may gust to 30 knots.

Showers and isolated/scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the cold front. The chances of
thunder are greatest near and east of a line from KLPR to KMNN.
There may be some small hail with the strongest thunderstorms.
Most locations remain VFR except with the thunderstorms that
briefly impact the region. A more widespread MVFR ceilings
should spread across NE OH and NW PA this evening into the
overnight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible in showers Monday, Tuesday, and
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest winds will begin to strengthen this morning ahead of an
approaching cold front associated with a low moving east across the
northern Great Lakes. These winds will quickly increase to 15-20
knots this morning before becoming northwest at 15-25 knots behind
the cold front this evening. Initial flow will remain offshore ahead
of the boundary, allowing waves to linger between 1-3 feet, but as
the winds shift and gain and onshore component, waves will build to
4-6 feet for the western and central basins. As a result, a Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect through Sunday morning.

High pressure builds over the area on Sunday allow for winds to
weaken to 5-10 knots and gradually shift to become south-
southwesterly. These winds will persist into Tuesday before a low
pressure tracking east across the Ohio River Valley establishes a
north-northeast flow of 5-10 knots across Lake Erie Tuesday evening.
As this low moves off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, high pressure will
build over the region on Thursday allowing for winds to become
easterly at 5-10 knots.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 10 PM EDT this evening
     for LEZ142>144.
     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EDT
     Sunday for LEZ145>148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
     Sunday for LEZ149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MM
NEAR TERM...MM
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...MM
MARINE...Campbell