Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 131941
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
341 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL FINISH CROSSING THE AREA THIS EVENING AND A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT THROUGH CLE AND FINDLEY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF IT. THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED. HAVE
CANCELLED THE WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES WE COVER. THERE MAY STILL BE
A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
SINKS SOUTHWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT/OVERNIGHT WILL BE
QUIET. LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH WILL BE
RID OF THE DEWPOINTS UP NEAR 70 FOR A WHILE. WILL BRING LOWS
TONIGHT INTO THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT WITH THE BETTER IMPACT IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE
ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FOCUSED MORE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES.
UNFORTUNATELY STILL HUGGED 50 POPS...NOT SURE ABOUT COVERAGE AND
MOISTURE.

MONDAYS HIGHS WILL STILL BE SEASONABLE...RIGHT AROUND 80 BUT WILL
BE NEAR 60 MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ONLY NEAR 70 FOR HIGHS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WORKING IN FROM THE
WEST...BUT UNSEASONABLY STRONG/COOL UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD MAY BE
ABLE TO BRING ABOUT AN INSTABILITY SHOWER OR TWO. LESS THUNDER
CHANCES. HAVE CONTINUED THE 20/30 POPS MAINLY ACROSS FAR NE OH/NW
PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY THEN SHIFT EAST
FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS STILL AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE AREA ON THURSDAY WHICH MAKES US WONDER IF A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD FALL INTO THE DRIER LOWER LEVELS. IF IT CAN OCCUR IT WILL NOT
AMOUNT TO MUCH MORE THAN A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE.

AFTER A COOL START IN THE 50S THURSDAY MORNING MOST OF THE AREA WILL
WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. WARMER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ATTEMPTING TO GET CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. HOWEVER MODELS
ARE HINTING AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS MAY END UP PRODUCING A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER AND MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS. SO WITH THAT SAID WE DID
NOT GET OVERLY AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WARMING TREND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT FROM KDKK TO KGKJ TO KFDY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR/FOG TOWARD SUNRISE WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY IN
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT MOVED ACROSS THE LAKE WITH SOME GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN
ITS WAKE. THESE WINDS KICKED WAVES UP ENOUGH TO GET THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE LAKE INTO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE
FAIRLY FAST THIS EVENING WITH THE 9 PM END TIME POSSIBLY A BIT
LONGER THAN NEEDED. LATER SHIFTS WILL REEVALUATE.

OTHERWISE WE WILL AWAIT THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT
WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MAY ONCE AGAIN BUILD WAVES TO SMALL CRAFT
LEVELS. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL THEN SWING ACROSS THE LAKE EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THEN ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE LAKE
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP COOL AIR OVER THE
LAKE. ANY OF THE SHOWERS OR EVEN TOWERING CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP OVER
THE LAKE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY COULD GENERATE WATERSPOUTS. DID NOT
ADD THIS TO THE GRIDS YET BUT ANTICIPATE IT WILL BE ADDED AT SOME
POINT BY TUESDAY.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LEZ146>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN






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