Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 050604
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
204 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OHIO AS THE LOW MOVES
TO THE EAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
HAVE MADE THE CHANGE TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE PRECIP THREAT CONTINUES
TO DIMINISH AND HAVE LEFT ONLY A SMALL 20 POP FOR NW PA FOR LATER
TONIGHT.  NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. CONCERNED ABOUT ANY ONGOING SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE
LAKESHORE EAST OF KCLE AT FIRST BUT THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE AIRMASS MIXES. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTH OVER
THE LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN IL. MODELS A LITTLE CLOSER
WITH THE SOLUTION VS YDAY WITH MORE OF A CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. WILL BRING A CHANCE POP
INTO THE FAR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT THIS
COULD END UP TOO HIGH GIVEN TRENDS. FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S WED-
THURS AND CLOSER TO 80 FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL START TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE THE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL TAKE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL SET UP BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S ON SUNDAY.

MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF ACTIVE WAVES
MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON AS MOISTURE INCREASES. KEPT
HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAKENING TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS SAGGING ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND IS
APPROACHING THE SOUTH SHORE. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO A LIGHT
NORTH OR NORTHWEST DIRECTION IN ITS WAKE. THERE MAY BE A FEW
2500-3500 FOOT CLOUDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. AT
THIS POINT IT APPEARS IT MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO KEEP IT FROM
BECOMING A CEILING. THESE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS OFF OF LAKE ERIE
WILL BE A BIT STRONGER AND COULD BE OVER 12 KNOTS. THIS WILL
MAINLY IMPACT KERI AND KCLE.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. NON VFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY ACROSS THE
EAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY VEER TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOPING. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...KEC



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