Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 221320
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
920 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the East Coast will move offshore today into
Monday and allow a series of cold fronts to push east across
the region Monday and Tuesday. Low pressure will remain across
the lower Great Lakes Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...Forecast remains on track for
another warm late October day. Thin cirrus moving overhead this
morning will start to thicken this afternoon, especially in the
west. Nudged high temperatures up about a degree at many sites
to be more in line with MAV guidance which performed very well
yesterday.

Original...High pressure along the East Coast will provide one
more sunny to partly cloudy mild day today before moving east.
By this evening expect clouds will be increasing from the west
ahead of the approaching cold front due in on Monday. Expect
highs today in the mid 70s and lows tonight 55 to 60. After
midnight tonight will bring chance pops into the west. Monday
models in good general agreement developing a wave on the front
as it moves into the area as an upper level trough digs into the
western lakes and upper midwest. Deep moisture will overspread
the area and will have categorical pops for most. QPF is highest
west half with the NAM and GFS between roughly 1 and 2 inches.
Amounts less than an inch east. WPC values are a bit more
restrained and show between a half inch and an inch and a quarter
with highest amounts west. Highs Monday in the 60s west to near
70 east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Models
coming into to good agreement with the first front moving across
the forecast area late Monday into Monday night. Get a short
break from the rain Tuesday morning as the system pulls east of
the area. The break will be short lived as second stronger cold
front pushes across the forecast area late Tuesday into Tuesday
night. by daybreak Wednesday deep upper level trough over the
area with 850mb temps around -2c.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Lake effect showers possible in the East Wednesday into Wednesday
night with upper trough over lakes and 850mb temps around -2c.
chance of a few snow showers mixing in Wednesday night but nothing
widespread.   Ridge builds in quickly on Thursday cutting off the
lake effect.

Models still in conflict for next weekend.   GFS moves next system
through Saturday with a secondary trough Sunday.   The ECMWF on the
other hand holds off the system until late Sunday into Sunday night.
For now will just continue with low chance pops Saturday in the west
and everywhere saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Sunday THROUGH Thursday/...
High pressure to our east will continue to influence weather
across the region for another day with a generally dry stable
airmass. There will continue to be varying amounts of mid and
high clouds through this afternoon with mid level CIGS moving
in from the west after 00Z ahead of the approaching cold front
due in on Monday. Expecting VFR through the day and into the
night. Towards/after 09-11Z expect MVFR cigs will be moving into
the western terminals and rain will be about to move in.


OUTLOOK...Areas if Non-VFR in rain Monday through Wednesday.
Some snow may occur Wednesday into Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions on the lake today with a light south flow.
Winds gradually pick up overnight into Monday as gradient
tightens ahead of approaching cold front. Small craft advisory
will be needed Monday night into mid week as cold front moves
across the lake Monday evening. Winds turn to the NW and
increase to 15 to 25 kt behind the front. Second stronger cold
front will move across the Lake Tuesday. Much colder airmass
moving over the lake with 850mb temps plunging to -2c by
daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...KEC/TK
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...DJB



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