Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 241740
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
140 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
ON SATURDAY. A TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
LATE SATURDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON SUNDAY THEN
SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE ALREADY OUT. FINE TUNED THE SKY FORECAST OTHERWISE NO
CHANGE. NO CHANGES TO TEMPS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE AREA TO
START THE DAY WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO QUEBEC ALOFT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOCATED OVER ILLINOIS WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST TODAY
WITH LITTLE IMPACT GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. CIRRUS
SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST
THIS MORNING. LOWER CLOUDS ARE SHOWING UP IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TROUGH FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SOUTH ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN INTO ILLINOIS
AND WILL SPREAD INTO NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS TO THE EAST
WILL SEE HIGH CLOUDS CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM 3-5 DEGREES FROM YESTERDAYS HIGHS IN MOST
AREAS...YIELDING VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S IN NW PA TO LOW 60S IN
NRN OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

THE SURFACE HIGHS WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER TONIGHT AND
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. SOME
BREAKS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS SO WILL CARRY
PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING IN THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO
THICKEN INTO SATURDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHALLOW ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER FOR SATURDAY.
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR ON SATURDAY AND NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES. WILL CARRY A LOW 20 POP
IN SOME OF THE EASTERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE FLOW
REMAINS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM...REACHING THE UPPER 60S IN
PORTIONS OF NW OHIO.

A 160 KNOT JET ALOFT SLIDES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENING TO OUR EAST. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO NE OHIO/NW PA SATURDAY EVENING WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY DROPPING TO 2C BUT THE COOLEST AIR WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR EAST. CONSIDERABLE DRYING AND
SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT SO REMOVED PRECIPITATION FROM
THE FORECAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT EVEN DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE.

THE NEXT SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. WE WILL
SEE ABOUT A 10 DEGREES SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA BUT EVEN EASTERN AREAS WILL ONLY BE A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. A FEW LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN NW PA BUT
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY. THE NEXT
RIDGE WILL ALREADY BE BUILDING OVERHEAD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW BENEATH THE
BUILDING RIDGE...925 TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AROUND 18C
WHICH SHOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA(MID 60S IN NW PA).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS TOO SPEED UP THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONVERGING ON A
FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR
AND THE TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. I SUSPECT
THAT THE FORECAST IS STILL TOO SLOW AS I KEPT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ON TUESDAY MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF I-71 BUT WE CAN CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE POP ON TUESDAY IF THE MODEL TREND CONTINUES.

TEMPS AT 850 MB ARE PROGGED TO DROP TO ABOUT ZERO BY WEDNESDAY AND
KEPT A SMALL CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW
PA ON WEDNESDAY OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLE AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE NEXT FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE SPEED IS UNCERTAIN AS THE UPPER FLOW IS
PROGGED TO BEGIN TO BACK ONCE AGAIN AS AN IMPRESSIVE SHORT WAVE
DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM SEEMS DESTINED TO
BRING A CHILLY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DOWN TO BETWEEN 2500
AND 4000 FEET MOVING INTO WESTERN OHIO AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER AREA
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL ALSO
PRODUCE SOME 2500 FOOT CEILINGS. EXPECTING CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
LOWER ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND DROP DOWN TO AROUND 1500
FEET OR SO BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE IN THE
WEST OVERNIGHT. SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS COLD
FRONT SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NON-VFR
DEVELOPING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ON THE EAST HALF OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING
BUT THE GRADIENT IS RATHER LIGHT. A DISSIPATING FRONT OUT WEST WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO LAKE ERIE TODAY AND THE FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY TONIGHT.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ON
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REACH 20 KNOTS OR MORE. THE FLOW
COULD BECOME MORE WESTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING BRINGING THE LARGER
WAVES ONSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BUILD IN ON SUNDAY BUT
THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH WIND/WAVES TO CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FROM AROUND CLEVELAND EAST ON SUNDAY. THE LAKE SHOULD QUIET
DOWN BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH CROSSES THE
LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...KOSARIK






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