Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 292205
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
605 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO TONIGHT
LEAVING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY CONTINUING THE ACTIVE
WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BUILD TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
FLOOD WATCH IS VERY CONDITIONAL FOR TONIGHT. IT ALL HINGES ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN OHIO CAN DRIFT. THE
HEAVIEST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK AS IF THEY WILL REMAIN FROM
CENTRAL OHIO SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER ANYTHING THAT MOVES FURTHER NORTH
COULD PRODUCE A QUICK HALF AN INCH WHICH WOULD CAUSE PROBLEMS OVER
OUR ALREADY WET SOILS.

THE NEAR TERM/HIGH RES MODELS ARE SHOWING NUMEROUS SHRA AND POSSIBLE
TSRA DEVELOPING AND MOVING NE THRU THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA FROM
LATE EVENING ON. THIS WILL WARRANT THE MENTION OF AT LEAST LIKELY
POPS FOR THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH THE
CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE
WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 60.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS A
STRONGER PIECE OF JET ENERGY PASSES NEAR THE AREA. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THERE
IS UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT WILL PROVIDE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE TO GET
THE SHOWERS/THUNDER TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN FOCUS APPEARS TO BE THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY AND WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/OUTFLOWS IN
THE AREA THERE MAY BE SOME MORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COUNTY WARNING AREA. HIGH PRESSURE ATTEMPTS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS.

HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S
BUT MAY BE IMPACTED BY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EACH DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND MIGHT END UP HAVING MORE FAIR WEATHER THAN
UNSETTLED. GFSENS HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE STORM TRACK.
HAVE LEANED THAT DIRECTION WHICH FALLS IN LINE WITH THE WPC PROGS.
MUCH WEAKER MID AND UPPER FLOW THAN WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY ALTHOUGH
THE EASTERN U.S. KEEPS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WHILE THE WEST RETAINS
THE RIDGE. TWO WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...ONE POSSIBLY
SATURDAY AND THE OTHER SUNDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH HOLDS STRONG
OVER THE LOCAL AREA FOR FRIDAY AND TO SOME DEGREE SUNDAY. THEREFORE
PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT EXCEED 30 OR 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE LONG
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST WAVE OF RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH OHIO ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF
A SURFACE LOW. SHOWERS ARE MAINLY LIGHT...AND NEARLY ALL
TERMINALS ARE VFR...WITH DRY AIR PREVENTING CIGS FROM FALLING OFF TOO
QUICKLY INTO RESTRICTED CATEGORIES. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE LOW NUDGES CLOSER TO
NORTHERN OHIO. EVENTUALLY CIGS WILL DROP OFF TO MVFR AND
POTENTIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY WILL ALSO BE RESTRICTED AT
TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH BR. TUE AFTERNOON BROAD LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
IN PLACE AT THE SFC. MODELS DIVERGE REGARDING QPF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST NAM SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE PRETTY QUICKLY
BEHIND THE LOW...WHICH WOULD NOT LEND ITSELF TO SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS STAMPS OUT QPF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE IN PART
TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SET OF TAFS LEANS TOWARDS THE
NAM GUIDANCE FOR TUE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO TUESDAY. AREAS OF NON
VFR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERALL NO EXCESSIVELY STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ON THE LAKE THROUGH
SATURDAY...AND FOR A THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK THE GRADIENT WILL BE
WEAK AND THEREFORE THE WINDS LIGHTER. VARIABLE WINDS TO START THIS
EVENING WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME EASTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE LAKE FROM THE SOUTH. IT WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT
AND BY TUESDAY THE MEAN FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWEST. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE LAKE TUESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST WITH
THE HIGH STAYING NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE LAKE SO WINDS WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE
NORTHEAST UNTIL SATURDAY WHEN THAT LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE OH/PA LINE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ013-020>023-031>033-
     038.
     FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ017-027>030-
     036-037-047.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...MULLEN/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...OUDEMAN


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