Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KCLE 110830
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
330 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY.
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.  ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE SNOW SHOWERS HAVE DIMINISHED IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. STILL
SEEING SOME 30 DBZ RETURNS ON RADAR BUT NOTHING LIKE THE 2 INCH
PER HOUR SNOW THAT FELL DURING LATE EVENING HOURS. STILL A COUPLE
OF DECENT BANDS ON RADAR BUT BEGINNING TO SEE THEM WEAKEN AS
WELL. DURING THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT THE BRUNT OF THE LAKE EFFECT
ACTIVITY TO SHIFT TO NW PA. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CHANGED THE
ADVISORY ENDING TIME FOR CUYAHOGA TO 15Z. THE DAY CREW MAY BE ABLE
TO GET RID OF THE REMAINING HEADLINES FOR NE OH LATER THIS MORNING
AS WELL. NOT EXPECTING A WHOLE LOT OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION
AFTER DAYBREAK FROM ABOUT KCLE WEST. TILL THEN ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
IS POSSIBLE FROM LORAIN COUNTY INTO MEDINA AND SUMMIT COUNTIES.
FURTHER EAST ACCUMS TODAY WILL ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. EXPECT A
FEW 4 INCH AMOUNTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BUT MOST AREAS WILL
ONLY SEE NUISANCE SNOW. SOME CLEARING IS ONGOING IN NW OHIO BUT
THIS SHOULD FILL BACK IN AND EXPECTING MAINLY A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY
AWAY FROM THE LAKE. SOME FLURRIES FROM LAKE MICHIGAN MAY ALSO
REACH NW OHIO THROUGH MIDDAY. DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO CHANGE MUCH
FROM CURRENT READINGS. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS ALL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THOSE WANTING WARMER WEATHER YOU ARE GOING TO BE
DISAPPOINTED. LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REALLY DRY OUT FROM
WEST TO EAST TONIGHT. WILL END THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
EVENING AS AN 850 MB RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA. IF WINDS
LESSEN TEMPS COULD GET REALLY COLD. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST
LOWS WELL BELOW GUIDANCE. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED
HOWEVER AND AS A CLIPPER WILL BRING INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. A GENERAL LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH AN
INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION MOST AREAS. THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CLIPPER ISN`T OVERLY MOIST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND EXPECT A RENEWAL OF THE LAKE
EFFECT ACTIVITY. A HURON BAND COULD GET SET UP ON SATURDAY AND
WILL LIKELY NEED ADDITIONAL HEADLINES. GIVEN HOW COLD IT IS...THE
AIRMASS WILL HAVE ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE SO THE SNOW MAY NOT BE AS
HEAVY AS THE ONGOING CURRENT EVENT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST
OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL ONCE AGAIN END THE SNOW.

MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER DEVELOPING WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL TREND TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF
WHICH ALSO AGREES WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AS IT STANDS WILL
ONLY BRING IN CHANCES POPS BY 12Z MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONG WAVE FLOW TO BEGIN
NEXT WORK WEEK.   BASICALLY CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.  ALTHOUGH THE TREND FOR BOTH MODELS IS
SIMILAR THE TRACK AND TIMING OFF SO DIFFICULT AT BEST TO PINPOINT
PERIODS OF SNOW. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE DEEP SOUTH ON
MONDAY THEN TRACKS UP THE EAST COAST...FINALLY REACHING NEW ENGLAND
ON WEDNESDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE FASTER AND FURTHER EAST WITH
THIS FEATURE. BY WEDNESDAY ECMWF HAS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WHILE THE GFS HAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA. LEANED TOWARD THE SUPERBLEND FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING CLE HAS
FINALLY SHIFTED SOUTH. THIS BAND WILL CLIP CAK/YNG WITH IFR
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW DECREASING AFTER 08Z FOR ALL SITES BUT ERI.
ERI WILL SEE SNOW INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE FROM UPSTREAM
LAKE HURON ARRIVES. THIS BAND WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED BUT TRIED
TO TIME IT INTO ERI WITH A TEMPO BETWEEN 11-15Z. ELSEWHERE CLOUD
HAVE ACTUALLY CLEARED OUT OF NW AND EVENTUALLY NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
CLOUDS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW BEFORE SCATTERING
OUT AGAIN LATER ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT ERI THROUGH 22Z.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY VFR LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. NON VFR IN
SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE MARINE FORECAST. STRONG WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OFTEN PUSHING 30 KNOTS. WILL SEE
A QUICK BREAK TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY. BUT NEXT ARCTIC BLAST DUE IN ON FRIDAY. MARGINAL GALES ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE 850MB TEMPS PLUNGE TO
-24C BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. A FREEZING SPRAY WARNING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY WINDS CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD
AND THE FREEZING SPRAY THREAT ENDS. AT THIS POINT THE LAKE IS
PRIMED TO FREEZE AND AN ICE ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO BRING
ATTENTION TO THIS. SUN/MON WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND BEGIN TO COME
OUT OF THE SSE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING


&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ012-089.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ013-014.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ011.
PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ001.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     PAZ002-003.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...DJB/OUDEMAN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.