Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 011146
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
746 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST WILL MOVE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. MADE MINOR CHANGES
TO THE HOURLY SKY AND TEMPERATURE TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

ORIGINAL "TODAY" DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRUSH THE AREA THIS MORNING... MAINLY
THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA... BUT THE MAIN
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS BECOME DRY AND
STABLE TODAY. WILL MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR
NORTHWEST PA THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE SUNNY WITH REASONABLY LOW DEW
POINTS. UPSTREAM TEMPS YESTERDAY WERE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND
WILL FORECAST HIGHS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME OF THE MODELS DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER INDIANA TONIGHT AND MOVE
THE SHOWERS EAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AND THE
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY AND STABLE... NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS OF ANY
CONSEQUENCE. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. LOWS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER/MID 60S WITH UPPER 50S IN THE COOLER SPOTS OF NE OH/NW PA.

THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER ON SUNDAY WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE. THE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST AND
THE AIR MASS WILL START OUT RATHER DRY AND STABLE. DO NOT WANT TO
REMOVE ALL MENTION OF SHOWERS SINCE THERE WILL BE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION AND AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE WEST. THE
BETTER CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD SEEM TO BE ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. DEW POINTS WILL RISE THOUGH THE 60S
ON SUNDAY AND THE HUMIDITY WILL BECOME MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE.
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE MID 80S ASSUMING THAT IT
DOES NOT RAIN. IF IT IS MOSTLY SUNNY WE COULD SEE UPPER 80S.

THE MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING ON TIMING THE STRONGER COLD FRONT
FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK. A COMPROMISE FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD
SEEM TO BE NEAR DAYBREAK MONDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO TO MONDAY
MORNING OR PERHAPS EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKY
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND COLD ADVECTION.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MODEL GUIDANCE
TEMPS.

WE MAY BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON TUESDAY WITH THE MAIN TROUGH/JET TO THE
NORTH AND THE SURFACE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. SOME OF THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO GENERATE OVER RUNNING SHOWERS THAT MIGHT CLIP OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. IT MAY BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS ACROSS EXTREME NE OH/NW PA. WILL HAVE A LOW POP
CHANCE FOR THE SHOWERS. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. GIVEN THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...FAVORED A SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE 00Z/01 GEM/ECMWF WHICH IS
DRY. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE RETURN AS IT TRACKS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LOWERED OR REMOVED POPS
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S...EXCEPT LOW 60S NEAR
THE LAKESHORE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE.
SCT CLOUDS NEAR 6K FEET WILL DEVELOP IN NE OH/NW PA THIS
AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AT
CLE/CAK/YNG/ERI WITH GUSTS TO 18 KNOTS AS A TROUGH LINGERS OVER
EASTERN LAKE ERIE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AFTER 00Z AND BACK TO SOUTHWEST MOST
LOCATIONS.

OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL NON VFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO AND
MONDAY IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
A TROUGH OVER LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING WILL WEAKEN WITH DECREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON THE EAST END OF THE LAKE.
WAVES WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS ERIE AND
COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A BRIEF
WINDOW...PEAKING FROM 4-8 PM. WILL ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO MONITOR
CONDITIONS AND DETERMINE NEED FOR THE ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND TONIGHT THEN MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND
COULD NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...DESPITE THE OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE
WESTERN TO CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY MID WEEK WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC



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