Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 201759
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
159 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES WILL MOVE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT IS WEAK ENOUGH
THAT A LAKE BREEZE IS DEVELOPING. IT MAY MAKE IT 5 MILES INLAND
BUT IT COULD TAKE ALL AFTERNOON. NONE THE LESS IT WILL BE A MILD
AFTERNOON EXCEPT CLOSE TO THE LAKE. SOME CIRRUS IS MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION...IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY...IT COULD BE A LITTLE
THICKER OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. ADJUSTED SOME OF THE HIGHS...MAINLY
UP A LITTLE AND ADDED WORDING ABOUT COOLER BECAUSE OF THE LAKE BREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.  TOMORROW WILL BE WARMER
THAN TODAY...BUT CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE DAY AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE NEXT SYSTEM
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT.  THE NAM IS A LITTLE SLOW
AND THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN YDY...BUT TREND IS STILL THE SAME
WITH BULK OF PRECIP FALLING MONDAY NIGHT.   REMOVED MENTION OF TSRA
AS LIMITED DYNAMICS AND WITH THE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE NIGHT...LIMITED CAPE.  S

AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BREAK IN THE
SHOWERS.  SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
APPROACHES 10C AND A SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN LAKE ERIE.  FOR
NOW WILL JUST CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE GFS HAS GOTTEN ON BOARD WITH A FASTER MOVING INITIAL SHORT WAVE
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL DIG
WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES THOUGH AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS OR THREATS OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
GENERIC "CHANCE OF SHOWERS" IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. PREFER A MORE CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ON
THURSDAY (UPPER 50S TO MID 60S) FEARING A RELATIVELY COOL
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE SURFACE HIGH JUST TO OUR EAST WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH CLOUDS AND/OR DEBRIS CLOUDS. THINK FRIDAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
HIGH TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE 70F.

THE MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE GFS
DIGGING THE TROUGH ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST AND THE ECMWF FLATTER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE CONSENSUS FAVORS THE SOMEWHAT MORE
AMPLIFIED GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTION ALLOWING THE SURFACE HIGH TO
SETTLE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FORECAST WILL NOT BE AS
FAST BRINGING RAIN BACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE
ECMWF. INSTEAD WILL CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA OF SOME LEFT OVER
SHOWERS ACROSS NE OH/NW PA SATURDAY UNDER THE TROUGH ALOFT AND
TEMPS SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A MID LEVEL DECK WILL
START TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE WEST EARLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...UNDERCUTTING PATCHY CIRRUS ALREADY IN PLACE. THE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH THAT
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KERI AND KCLE...WHICH WILL BOTH OBSERVE A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE EAST WIND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT
THE WIND ON THE LAKE WILL BE MOSTLY LAKE BREEZE ORIENTED. THE SOUTH
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. STRONG
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BY LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHTER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJB
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA
SHORT TERM...DJB
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...KOSARIK






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