Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 230539
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
139 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will expand eastward over the area tonight then
move off the east coast on Wednesday. Low pressure is expected to
move out of the plains across the Great Lakes from Wednesday into
Thursday. The associated cold front will move across the area on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High pressure will increase its influence on the region tonight.
The remaining cumulus will continue to decrease in coverage. The air
is much drier across the area and winds are decoupling. The dry air,
light winds and nearly clear skies will allow for a good radiational
cooling night. So expect a cool night with all locations, except the
immediate lakeshore, having temperatures dip into the 50s. A few
inland locations may dip as low as 49, especially across inland NW
PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will gradually shift to the east coast through
Wednesday. This will allow low pressure over the Plains states to
move into the western Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. So with
an increase in low level moisture ahead of the front there will be
increasing chances of thunderstorms. The better chances of
thunderstorms will occur after midnight Wednesday night through
Thursday evening. Still some uncertain about coverage at this
point in time but think chances are good enough to warrant a
likely pop.

Tuesday will be the cool day of the short term with highs within
a few degrees of 80. Warmer and more humid Wednesday into
Thursday with highs back into the middle 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models a little faster with the high pressure building in on Friday
so have removed chance pops for Friday morning. After that models
continue to be in good agreement with large area of high pressure
moving slowly across the Great Lakes over the weekend...then
moving off the New England coast late Sunday. This should provide
a dry conditions and nearly seasonal temps. After that models
diverge. GFS moves weak system across area on Monday...while ECMWF
is slower. For now will go with continuity and keep low chance
pops going on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/...
High pressure will be over the region through the TAF cycle with VFR
conditions. Winds will be light overnight and develop out of the
south on Tuesday. A lake breeze with winds out of the northwest is
expected at CLE/ERI during the afternoon. Otherwise scattered
cumulus clouds will develop near 4500 feet Tuesday afternoon with
high clouds spreading in from the west late.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible in showers and thunderstorms starting
later Wednesday night into Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Decided to remove the mention of waterspouts on Lake Erie late
tonight and early Tuesday. Cannot definitively say there will be
no waterspouts but with ridging and warming aloft the overall
pattern is less conducive. As the surface flow veers more
southerly the best low level convergence will be out over the
open waters, perhaps on the Canadian side and up toward the
eastern basin. These areas may be somewhat more susceptible. The
Szilagyi waterspout index shows very little chance.

Quiet conditions will continue into mid week. Small craft
advisory possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning as winds
turn to the southwest and increase to 15 to 20 knots behind the
next front.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Mullen
NEAR TERM...Adams/Mullen
SHORT TERM...Mullen
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...DJB/Kosarik



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