Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 042344
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
744 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL
WEAKEN INTO SUNDAY. A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT FROM THE MIDWEST TO EASTERN CANADA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STORM COVERAGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS AIRMASS
LOOSES DAYTIME HEATING. IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING INDICATIVE
OF WEAKENING AND THE LIGHTENING HAS FALLEN OFF. THE EASTERN
COUNTIES REMAIN MORE STABLE AND STORMS IN PA THAT ARE ADVECTING
NORTHWEST ARE SUB-SEVERE. FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR STORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER MICHIGAN. CAN`T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT MORE CONVECTION BEING TRIGGERED OVERNIGHT IF ANOTHER
PIECE OF ENERGY DIVES SOUTH. OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN INTO EARLY SUNDAY. STILL
MAY SEE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE
AND WITH SOME LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE OVER THE HILLS. BY MONDAY IT
APPEARS THAT THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND DO
NOT PLAN TO MENTION THE CONVECTION. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS CHANGING ONCE AGAIN AND NOT
PARTICULARLY IN OUR FAVOR IF ONE LIKES WARM WEATHER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TO TREND TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER 48. A TROUGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA AND BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THIS PATTERN SHAPING UP WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. EVENTUALLY THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION FORCING YET ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

FIRST FRONT WILL BRING WITH IT SOME LIMITED MOISTURE AND A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEN...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH EAST AHEAD
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENDING THE
THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. SO WILL KEEP THINGS DRY AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A GENERAL RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
IS FAVORING SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. GENERAL TRENDS
HAVE SHOWN WEAKENING ALTHOUGH STORMS REMAIN NEAR THE FDY AREA AND
WERE MOVING TOWARD KERI FROM THE SE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM TO BE IN THE KFDY AREA THROUGH ABOUT 02Z OR SO. ALSO
GAVE KERI A TWO HOUR WINDOW FOR THE STORMS TO REACH THE TERMINAL
VCNTY. OTHERWISE TERMINALS VFR TO START WITH A LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z-09Z TIME FRAME DROPPING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
ALLOWED FOR A PERIOD OF IFR NEAR SUNRISE. SATURDAY WILL GO WITH
VFR FOR NOW WITH MAINLY ISOLATED CONVECTION EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR EACH MORNING IN FOG AND HAZE.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE ERIE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE RATHER QUIET FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. NOT EXPECTING ANY AIR MASS CHANGES THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY SO MUCH OF THE SAME. POSSIBILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...TRYING TO
QUIET THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DOWN OVER THE LATTER PART OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MULLEN
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MULLEN
SHORT TERM...MULLEN
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...LOMBARDY



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