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000
FXUS61 KCLE 170759
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
359 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS UNTIL A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS NW PA AND NRN
OH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE ITS PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AREA STABILIZED EARLY THIS MORNING AND WITH NOTHING TO INITIATE A
SHOWER/TS...MUCH OF THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL LINGERS JUST NORTH OF THE
OHIO BORDER...DIVIDING MID AND UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS TO ITS SOUTH
FROM MID 50S DEWPOINTS TO ITS NORTH...BUT IT IS MUCH LESS DEFINED
THAN YESTERDAY. 00Z DTX SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS THE RELATIVE DRYING
THAT HAS TAKEN PLACE. SHOULD NOT HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT SHRA/TS FOR A
GOOD PART OF TODAY. WILL BRING LOW PRECIP CHANCES INTO ERIE PA
AFTER 2 PM AND INTO CLE AFTER 5P AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MI INTO ONTARIO BEGINS TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WITH THE GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW...H8 TEMPS CREEP UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR TODAY. SO WILL TACK ON SOME FOR THE HIGHS.
THIS WILL PUT NW OHIO SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY START TO
SINK SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS MI/ONTARIO
FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THAT WILL BEGIN TO SEEP INTO NW PA/NRN
OHIO DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WILL MAXIMIZE PRECIP CHANCES THEN
IN THE EVENING...TAPERING THEM OVERNIGHT AS WE STABILIZE. FRONT
THOUGH WILL BE SLOW TO FLUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL KEEP SOME
PRECIP CHANCES INLAND FOR TUESDAY. MILD AGAIN TONIGHT WITH 60S FOR
LOWS. TUESDAYS TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT THE
EFFECTS OF COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE LAKESHORE.

GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A DRY PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL SLIP BACK
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND NIGHTS AGAIN WILL GET INTO THE LOWER
50S...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S POSSIBLE. AMPLE SUN AND CLEARING
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LATE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MEANS ON BALANCE...A BIT MORE HEAT IN THE
REGION. FRIDAY MODELS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY WITH LOW PRESSURE IN KS/NE. GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH IN
THE REGION WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE DAY. HUMIDITY WILL BE
INCREASING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE BOTH THE HIGH AND LOW DRIFT
EAST SETTING UP A SOUTHERLY CONVEYOR OUT OF THE GLFMX. SUNDAY THE
LOW WILL BE IN THE AREA WITH A WARM FRONT TO OUR EAST AND A TRAILING
COLD FRONT WEST. EXPECTING A DECENT SHOT OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WITH THE UPPER
HIGH ALSO NOSING INTO THE AREA WILL HOLD POPS TO THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STATIONARY FRONT IN THE AREA WHICH HAS TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA AROUND THE MIDNIGHT
HOUR. ACTIVITY IS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM KFKL-KYNG-KCAK-KMFD-
KFWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD
BE OUT OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA BY 08Z OR SO. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS
STILL WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NWRN PA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KTOL VCNTY. EXPECTING FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z.
TOOK MOST LOCATIONS TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE TEMPO PORTION OF
THE FORECAST FROM 09-13Z. ISOLD IFR POSSIBLE. MONDAY EXPECTING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 4 AND 6 THOUSAND
FEET. AFTER 00Z EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM 10K AND BELOW AS
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BOUGHT VCSH TO KCLE
KCAK KYNG AND KERI AFTER 04Z.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE ERIE EARLY TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL LAKES TOWARD THE AREA. THIS SECOND FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW...BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.  THE HIGH WILL DRIFT TO NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.  EXPECTING
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE LAKE TODAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL TURN NORTH TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHEAST FOR TUESDAY.  WITH THE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH...WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY. NOT EXPECTING WINDS OR WAVES TO GET HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THE PERIOD HOWEVER THE
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAKE A 2 TO 3 FOOT CHOP ON THE CENTRAL AND
WEST THIRD NEARSHORE WATERS MIDWEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK