Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 292247
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
647 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS THE SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW YORK MOVES EAST IT WILL ALLOW AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND STORM ACTIVITY STARTING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE LAKES
REGION MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS INDIANA
EARLY THIS EVENING...A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM WILL
DETER THEIR EASTWARD PROGRESSION. RESIDUAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. ULTIMATELY THERE WILL BE
FEWER CLOUDS EAST THAN WEST.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S...WITH A RISE IN DEW POINTS NOTABLY IN THE WESTERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AXIS IN IN/MI...BUT THE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
LOCAL AREA SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES TO OUR WEST. NO POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE EAST AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR SOME QUICK COOLING AFTER SUNSET
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE COMBATING SOUTHEAST FLOW
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED IN DOWN SLOPING AREAS LIKE ERIE.
OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER OVERNIGHT FROM THE MID 60S IN
THE WEST...TO UPPER 50S IN THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A DISTURBANCE FROM THE WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
COULD SEE SOME STRAY STORMS IN THE FAR WEST BEFORE NOON. FOCUS
FOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER. THE
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME MOISTURE WILL BECOME AVAILABLE IN THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS IT WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC
HIGH..BUT NOT CONVINCED THIS WILL BE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED WITH A
WEAK CAP TO GENERATE STORMS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THERE
IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT THERE WILL BE A DRY SLOT BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS KEEPING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REGION...WELL ABOVE THE UPPER 70
NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS
WILL MAKE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. THE JET
DYNAMICS BECOME FAVORABLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND GRADUALLY
IMPROVES EAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INCREASED FORCING AND
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY WE WILL SEE A LOWERING OF POPS FROM NW WITH REDUCED
FORCING. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE
DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
THE HEAVY RAIN WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.8". POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
DROP AND THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WITHOUT STORMS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF LABOR DAY. THE SECOND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WE COULD
SEE SOME SCATTERED STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
JET STREAM CONTINUES TO TRACK ZONALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
STATES TAKING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MAKE LITTLE SOUTHERN PROGRESS LIKELY DISSIPATING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKLY IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON DECK FOR FRIDAY. OVERALL DECENT
MODEL AGREEMENT...BUT WITH THE ZONAL FLOW TIMING MAY BE OFF THIS FAR
OUT. CENTERED PRECIP CHANCES AROUND FRONTAL ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR
TOL/FDY. SURFACE GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z...AFTER WHICH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR LIKELY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
THUNDERSTORMS AND A CHOPPY LAKE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
TONIGHT WINDS ON THE LAKE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY FOR SATURDAY...AND
THEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF
WIND FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO
20 KNOTS ON THE LAKE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CHOPPY LAKE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF NEEDING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...CLEARING OUT ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT NEVER REALLY CROSSES
THE LAKE THIS WEEKEND...BUT INSTEAD WEAKENS OVERHEAD. LIGHTER
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD
CROSS THE LAKE ARRIVES FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAMISON
NEAR TERM...JAMISON/MAYERS
SHORT TERM...JAMISON
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN






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