Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 162202
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
602 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.
A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND BRING A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. CONTINUING THE TREND OF
MOSTLY CLEAR OR BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR. SOME OF THE AREAS IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THE CUMULUS IS STILL A
LITTLE WIDESPREAD.

NO CHANGES TO THE LOWS AT THIS TIME. DID ADD SOME PATCHY FOG TO
AREAS WELL INLAND FROM THE LAKE FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. CONCERNS
TONIGHT REVOLVE AROUND AMOUNT OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AND
TEMPERATURES. THIS MORNINGS STRATUS HAS BROKEN UP AND IS SHOWING
DIURNAL TRENDS SUGGESTING IT WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. BY EVENING
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR. FLOW REMAINS OFF OF THE LAKE FOR FAR
NE OH/NW PA THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. HAVE ALLOWED FOR
SOME NEW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. DEWPOINTS
ARE RUNNING HIGH...LIMITING THE CONCERN FOR ANY PATCHY INLAND
FROST...BUT MAY HAVE SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEAL WITH. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW OUTLYING AREAS REACHING THE UPPER 30S BRIEFLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FAIR WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED AND MAY ONLY HAVE SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANIED BY MINIMAL MOISTURE MAY BRING A FEW CLOUDS
ACROSS FDY/MNN AREA LATER IN THE DAY. A COOL START BUT WITH A LOT
OF SUN...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 60S. FORTIES
AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A WEAK LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO SINK SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE FROM THIS SO HAVE MAINTAINED A SILENT
20 PERCENT FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. BASICALLY THIS FRONT WILL
BRING WITH IT SOME CLOUD COVER AND SHIFT WINDS AROUND TO A COOL
NORTHEAST DIRECTION FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST...SO WILL KEEP FROSTY
TEMPS AWAY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING AND ONLY HAVE A FEW
ISOLATED SPOTS HIT THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE EAST.

A WARMING TREND...ALTHOUGH BRIEF AND LIMITED WILL BEGIN ON FRIDAY
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND
WARMER AIR JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR
AREA. HIGHS WILL AIM FOR THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. THE FORECAST
WILL REMAIN DRY FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE CREEPING A LITTLE FASTER WITH COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND
BUT I THINK SATURDAY WILL BE DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM. THERE SHOULD
BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. YESTERDAY I
THOUGHT WE COULD GET TO 80F IN MANY PLACES AND I THINK WE WILL STILL
TAKE A RUN AT IT BUT THE 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED ONLY SUPPORT UPPER
70S. WILL STILL CHEAT THE FORECAST UP NEAR 80 IN THE TRADITIONAL
WARMER SPOTS.

MOST OF THE MODELS BRING THE FRONT THOUGH ON SUNDAY MORNING. NOT
SURE IF WE CAN SEE IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE
WOULD BE ACROSS NW OHIO. THE COLD ADVECTION IS NOT TOO STRONG AT
FIRST AND TEMPS COULD RECOVER TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S IF
THE RAIN MOVES EAST QUICK ENOUGH.

MONDAY MAY NOT BE A BAD DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN
BUT THE SURFACE AIR MASS WILL TRY TO DRY OUT AND THE COLDEST AIR
ALOFT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
COULD BUBBLE UP AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE ESPECIALLY NE
OH/NW PA. HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 60S TO NEAR 70.

THE TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD BE PASSING ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES BY
TUESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL BE COOLER AND WETTER THAN GUIDANCE...AT
LEAST ACROSS NE OH/NW PA. IF THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE REALLY
GOING TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO...CANNOT BE OPTIMISTIC.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS DECK WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND
DISSIPATE BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS IN.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT. MVFR FOG IS LIKELY INLAND NE
OH/NW PA WITH LOCAL IFR FOG AND CEILINGS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE FOG
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MID MORNING AND SCATTERED VFR FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS LIKELY NE OH/NW PA.

OUTLOOK...VFR UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY THEN NON-VFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING AND THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAKENING BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL SAG ACROSS THE LAKE THURSDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH IN
THE WAY OF WEATHER BUT IT WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE HIGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA TO BUILD DOWN ACROSS THE LAKE AND
THE NORTH WIND WILL PICK UP ENOUGH TO MAKE THE LAKE CHOPPY. AT THIS
TIME IT SEEMS AS IF THE WIND AND WAVES SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST AND THE WIND WILL COME
AROUND FROM THE SOUTH BY SATURDAY. THE SOUTH WIND WILL BE ENHANCED
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND WAVES MAY END UP ON THE
CANADIAN SIDE OF THE LAKE ON SATURDAY BUT THE LAKE WILL GET STIRRED
UP NONETHELESS AND EVENTUALLY REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE
FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE SUNDAY...PROBABLY IN THE MORNING... AND
WINDS WILL COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...KIELTYKA/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK






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