Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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000
FXUS61 KCLE 282030
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
330 PM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS FEARED CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO EXIT THE AREA. STILL SEEING LOW
CIGS IN NW OHIO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SWATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE
AS WELL. DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WIN OUT
OVERNIGHT AND WILL STILL TRY TO TAKE THE SW HALF OF THE AREA TO
PARTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND THE LATEST HRRR
CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER NW PA TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS A WHILE LONGER. 850 MB TEMPS WILL DIP TO
NEG 9 OR SO BY MORNING SO WILL INTRODUCE A SMALL 20 POP FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. NOT EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATION AND REALISTICALLY PROBABLY
NOT MUCH MORE THAN FLURRIES. THE EVENING CREW WILL HAVE TO WATCH
TEMPS...IF THE CLOUDS LINGER...FORECAST LOWS WILL NEED TO BE
NUDGED UP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ALL IN ALL IT SHOULD BE A QUIET PERIOD AS A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXERTS ITSELF OVER THE REGION. MAY BE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES AT
DAYBREAK OVER NW PA BUT THOSE SHOULD END QUICKLY AS DRIER AIR
SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH. WILL SEE ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TUESDAY. AT THAT POINT TEMPS WILL
REALLY TAKE A DOWNWARD TURN. MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS LACKING
BUT GIVEN LAKE TO 850 MB TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES APPROACHING 20
DEGREES...THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS FROM KCLE
EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INITIALLY
SHOW A CAPPING INVERSION OF 6 TO 7K FEET BUT THIS WILL LOWER ON
WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING AS WELL SO NOT EXPECTING
ANY HEADLINES AND PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
EVEN IN PREFERRED AREA. SNOW CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE FLOW BEGINS TO PUSH ANY SNOW BANDS NORTH
ONTO LAKE ERIE.

HAVE CONTINUED THE RECENT TREND OF NUDGING TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. TEMPS MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE BUT
BY WEDNESDAY READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 20 DEGREES
FOR HIGHS. THE NEW GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE A FAIRLY GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS AND HAVE USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECAST DURING THIS PERIOD IS RATHER COMPLICATED WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE. THE MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PHASING OF THE
SPLIT FLOW OVER THE NATION AND THE TREATMENT OF THE SHORT WAVE IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM. THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TRACKS IT WEST OF THE REGION TO PRODUCE RAIN
OVER THE AREA ON THE SATURDAY AS IT PHASES THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT
WAVE IN THE NORTHERN JET STREAM.  THE ECMWF DOES NOT PHASE THE
SOUTHERN SHORT WAVE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM AND SLOWS DOWN THE
FEATURE AND TRACKS IT SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS KEEPS THE REGION
COLD WITH LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART HAVE TAKEN A
COMPROMISED SOLUTION BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION
FORECASTED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN CEILING HEIGHT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY AWAY FROM LAKE ERIE. WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RA-/SN-
FROM GEAUGA COUNTY TO YNG SHOULD END BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON.

EXPECT A SCATTERING OUT OF LOW CLOUDS WEST OF CLE TOWARD SUNSET
WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY LIFTING TO THE 2500-3500FT RANGE FROM MFD TO
CLE TO ERI AND YNG INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE HRRR MODEL
INDICATES SOME INCREASE IN LOW CLOUD COVERAGE EAST OF CLE AFTER 00 UTC
AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
OVER EXTREME NE OHIO AND NW PA. VFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE
THE SNOW SHOWERS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

.OUTLOOK...AREAS OF NON VFR CEILINGS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE OH/NW PA.

&&

.MARINE...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO WEDNESDAY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHICH WILL
STRENGTHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKES AND MAY
PRODUCE GALES ON LAKE ERIE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
SLACKEN BRIEFLY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE GULF COAST AND GRADUALLY
HEAD NORTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS ONTARIO JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AND RESULTANT
WIND FORECAST FOR LAKE ERIE IS QUESTIONABLE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KUBINA
NEAR TERM...KUBINA
SHORT TERM...KUBINA
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...LAPLANTE





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