Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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979
FXUS64 KEWX 211815
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
115 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Please see the 18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR skies are in store for this afternoon and evening as some high
clouds associated with Tropical Storm Cindy move in from the east.
Otherwise, northerly winds of 10-15kt are in store for the I-35
corridor through this afternoon. Winds should begin to decrease after
02Z as mixing decreases. We do expect a gradual increase in low-level
moisture overnight into tomorrow morning and have gone with SCT
clouds at AUS beginning 08Z, increasing to MVFR after 12Z. Farther
south at SAT/SSF, moisture levels should be a little lower and will
continue a VFR forecast with SCT low clouds after 08Z. VFR conditions
are expected at DRT through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Dry and hot weather conditions persist across South Central Texas
today. High temperatures should reach the lower to mid 90s across the
Hill Country with mid to upper 90s along the I-35 corridor. There
are some parts of the Rio Grande Plains that could see the
thermometer reach the 100 degree mark.

By tomorrow Thursday, increased moisture associated with the
circulation of tropical storm Cindy is expected to reach the far
eastern counties (east of Highway 77). With precipitable water values
jumping from one inch later this afternoon to two inches by Thursday
afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are expected across that area
with moderate to heavy episodes of precipitation. Can`t rule out
flash flooding especially across area roadways, underpasses and low
lying areas.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Showers and storms are expected to be limited late Thursday night
into Friday as the surface low pressure system associated with Cindy
pushes to the northeast and into the Mississippi Ohio Valley.

Rain chances return the upcoming weekend and especially for Sunday as
tropical moisture associated with Cindy meets with a cold front
pushing down into our area. At this time, latest GFS solution has the
frontal boundary stalling to the north of the Hill Country while the
ECM and Canadian models bring the frontal boundary across the Hill
Country Sunday afternoon and Monday morning respectively.

The extended forecast package shows a blend of the GFS and ECM
solutions the first part of the week with GFS being the model of
choice for the latter part of the forecast.

Temperatures cool down a bit early in the week due to the rain
chances and cloud coverage. However, they come back up to near normal
climate values by the end of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  92  76  98  77 /  -   20  10  -   20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  92  75  98  77 /  10  20  10  -   20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     73  94  75  98  77 /  -   10  -    0  10
Burnet Muni Airport            70  91  72  96  75 /   0  10   0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           73 102  77 105  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  91  74  97  76 /  -   20  10  -   20
Hondo Muni Airport             70  98  74 102  77 /   0   0   0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  93  75  98  77 /  10  20  -   -   20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  90  77  95  78 /  30  40  20  20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       73  96  76 100  77 /  -   -    0   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           73  96  76 100  78 /  -   -    0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...24
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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