Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 181728
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.AVIATION...
No significant changes expected during the TAF period from the past
few days. MVFR CIGS at the I-35 sites from 07-16Z, then scattering
out quickly as daytime heating and mixing commence. There will be
SCT030 at KDRT for a few hours around 12Z, but no restrictions
expected due to very dry air and sinking motion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/

AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
MVFR ceilings prevail at both AUS and SAT, while more scattered cloud
cover at 2000 feet is ongoing at SSF where a TEMPO group is in place
to handle intermittent MVFR ceilings. Low clouds should lift to VFR
by 15Z at AUS and perhaps an hour earlier at SAT and SSF as
southerly winds currently around 10 knots increase closer to 15 knots
with gusts of 20-25 knots this afternoon. Winds may gust into the
evening hours at SAT before they fall below 10 knots later tomorrow
night and MVFR ceilings redevelop again around 8Z at the I-35 TAF
sites. Cloud decks tomorrow will most likely be lower than tonight,
but should remain above IFR criteria. DRT will remain VFR through the
period with more southeasterly winds this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 442 AM CDT Sun Jun 18 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Another typical hot day for middle June is in store across the area
today. High temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal
values with mid to upper 90s across the Hill Country, upper 90s along
Interstate 35 and 104 to 107 across the Rio Grande Plains. Elevated
dewpoint temperatures and hot temperatures along and south of Highway
90 will combine to produce heat index values 100 to 107 across the
southern counties and up to 109 over parts of the Rio Grande Plains
this afternoon. We are holding off on issuing a Heat Advisory at this
time based on values above mentioned, however, will monitor closely
temperatures trend and make any necessary updates if needed.

A cold front is forecast to push across central Texas into the Hill
Country on Monday. HiRes and medium-range models develop an MCS along
an outflow boundary across central Texas late Sunday night/early
Monday. This boundary is expected to reach part of the Hill Country
Monday morning and produce isolated showers Monday morning with few
thunderstorms developing in the afternoon with the help of daytime
heating. Due to cloud coverage and the slight chance for rain across
the Hill Country, maximum temperatures should be few degrees cooler
than today`s high temps.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
A strong upper level ridge over the Four Corners region and northern
Mexico is forecast to remain in place for the first half of the week
with limited shower activity expected across the area through the
period. The second part of the extended forecast period is very
uncertain as medium-range models develop a tropical cyclone over the
Gulf of Mexico within the next few days with a wide variety of
different solutions. NHC`s Tropical Weather Outlook has a 40 percent
chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours and an 80
percent chance within 5 days. When and where this system develops
will go a long way towards determining whether it will track south of
the subtropical ridge into Mexico just south of Brownsville or
towards the north-northeast into a weakness east of the subtropical
ridge. At the current moment, it is important to not focus on any
particular model solution until we are closer to having a closed
system develop in the Gulf, at which point model uncertainties
(including which of the two aforementioned scenarios above are more
likely) and their associated ensemble spread should decrease.
However, please stay tuned over the next several days for any updates
on the potential for a tropical system to develop in the Gulf.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76  95  75  97  73 /   0  10  10  -   -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  94  73  96  71 /  -   10  10  -   -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  95  74  96  71 /   0  10  10  -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            74  92  73  93  70 /   0  20  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76  99  76  98  75 /   0  -    0  -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        75  93  73  95  71 /   0  20  10  -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             74  97  73  98  72 /   0   0  -   -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  94  74  96  72 /   0  10  10  -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  94  75  96  73 /  -   10  10  10  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  96  75  96  73 /   0  10  -   -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           76  96  75  96  73 /   0  -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...26
Synoptic/Grids...05
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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