Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 122008
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
308 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2017

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday)...

Warming overnight low temperatures into the early weekend with no
major weather highlights outside of slightly above normal
temperatures for this time of year. However, big changes are expected
for the late weekend. See the long-term discussion for more details
on the pattern change.

For today, south winds are slowly bringing in additional low-level
moisture as low to mid-level ridging occurs over the Sabine and
Mississippi River Valleys. This moisture-laden south wind fetch will
aid in the development of low clouds after midnight across much of
the region and also aid in some patchy fog for the coastal plains.
Fog is not expected to be dense at this time. The extra moisture
overnight will keep temperatures up vs. previous nights with readings
only falling into the the mid 60s to low 70s.

Clouds will eventually mixout tomorrow by late morning as south winds
continue and a pleasant and warm Friday is expected. Afternoon
temperatures will reach into the mid to upper 80s most locations and
even some 90s could be possible for the coastal plains. These values
are about 3-5 degrees above normal for this time of year. A near
repeat of clouds are expected after midnight Friday night into
Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...

A long-wave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest will pivot
across central U.S. plains by late Saturday into early Sunday. A
decently strong cold front will sweep through the entire region
Sunday morning bringing elevated rain/thunderstorm chances, a stiff
north breeze, clouds, and much cooler temperatures. No hazards are
expected at this time with the passage of the front.

Before the large pattern change on Sunday, Saturday will be the last
warm day with good amount of afternoon sun as temperatures again
reach into the upper 80s. Models have come into good agreement of a
frontal passage early Sunday morning. Overall thermodynamic elements
of lapse rates and instability could support thunderstorms along the
main frontal line but with weak deep layer shear and little dynamic
support that remains much farther north, no organized or strong
storms are expected. PWATs will pool to 1.75" ahead of the front and
this could aid in some brief heavy rainfall in the stronger storms
but the front will have good southward momentum and rainfall duration
will be kept low. In fact, latest model runs indicate a slightly
faster frontal progression with rain likely ending by late morning
to early afternoon Sunday across much of the region. Have placed this
timing in the official forecast to better show the ramp up and then ramp
down of rain chances during that period.

The trickiest weather element on Sunday will be the afternoon high
temperatures. Temperatures will likely have a hard time recovering
post-frontal with the indicated post-frontal cloud cover and north
winds. Have trimmed off 2-3 degrees from the SuperBlend model this
package while also increasing the winds and wind gusts. Gusts could
reach upwards of 20-30 mph Sunday afternoon.

Much cooler conditions expected Monday and Tuesday with lows reaching
down in the 40-50s and highs in the 70s with north winds persisting.
Winds will then shift back east and then south mid to late week with
a warming trend expected into late next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              69  89  70  88  69 /   0   0   0  -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  88  68  88  68 /   0   0   0  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  88  69  87  69 /   0  -   -   10  -
Burnet Muni Airport            66  87  67  86  64 /   0   0   0  -   20
Del Rio Intl Airport           67  86  71  86  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        67  89  68  88  67 /   0   0   0  -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             68  89  70  87  70 /   0  -    0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        67  89  69  88  69 /   0   0   0  10  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  90  69  90  70 /   0  -   -   10  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       70  88  71  87  71 /   0  -   -   10  -
Stinson Muni Airport           70  88  71  87  70 /   0  -   -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...05
Synoptic/Grids...Allen
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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