Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 061808 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1208 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Light rain continues to affect all area sites with VFR conditions at
KAUS while KSAT, KSSF and KDRT remain MVFR. Cold rain is expected to
fall across much of South Central Texas through the forecast period
with wintry mix expected north of all area terminals late this
afternoon continuing through Thursday morning. The most
likely area for very light accumulation will be the Edwards
Plateau. MVFR conditions are expected across all area airports early
this evening through mid-day Thursday. Northerly winds of 10 knots or
less expected through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017/

AVIATION...
Light rain will likely continue for most of the valid TAF period
before beginning to taper off from north to south tomorrow morning.
Ceilings are VFR except for SAT which is MVFR and we should see SSF
and DRT follow later this morning. AUS will likely stay VFR for most
of the day. DRT will likely see IFR overnight as low-level moisture
is highest.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CST Wed Dec 6 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed a broad trough across most of
the country with nearly zonal flow over Texas. Water vapor satellite
imagery showed deep moisture streaming across Mexico into Texas. At
the surface, the cold front has moved off the coast. Winds across our
CWA were generally from the northeast. The upper level trough axis
will swing down into the southern plains during this period. With
good moisture in place precipitation will be likely today. As the
trough swings southward it will bring colder mid-level air into the
region and a chance for a mix of rain and snow across our northern
area starting this afternoon and continuing through Thursday morning.
Rain and snow will be possible along and north of a line from Jarrell
to Kerrville to Comstock. Surface temperatures will stay mainly above
freezing so we don`t expect any accumulation. However, some parts of
northern Edwards county may get down to freezing and a dusting of
snow is possible. This shouldn`t cause any impacts since the ground
is still quite warm. By Thursday afternoon all precipitation will be
liquid.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
Thursday night the upper level trough axis will push into Central
Texas and precipitation chances will begin ending from north to
south. All precipitation will be over by Friday morning. Friday
morning will be the coldest of this period with freezing temperatures
over much of the area. A freeze warning will likely be needed for
much of the northern half of the area that has yet to reach freezing
this season. Saturday the upper trough will move away to the east and
weak ridging will move in from the west. This will mean a dry period
with warming temperatures through the end of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              43  37  50  33  56 /  90  80  40  20   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  43  38  50  32  56 /  90  90  40  20   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     43  37  47  33  56 /  90  90  50  30   0
Burnet Muni Airport            41  37  48  29  54 /  90  70  30  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           46  37  46  32  55 /  80  90  70  40   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        42  38  49  31  55 /  90  70  30  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             46  36  48  31  57 /  90  90  60  40   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        43  37  48  33  56 /  90  90  50  30   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   42  37  48  32  53 /  90  80  50  30  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       44  37  48  34  57 /  90  90  50  30  -
Stinson Muni Airport           45  38  47  35  56 /  90  90  60  40  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...17
Synoptic/Grids...TB3
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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