Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 112341 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
641 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017

.AVIATION.../00Z TAF CYCLE/

VFR conditions prevail are and expected through the the 24-30 hour
period. While the NAM continues to be more aggressive with low-level
moisture Saturday morning, both the GFS and recent time-series of
the HRRR suggest lower saturation levels. Have continued the SCT010
grouping for KAUS/KSAT/KSSF sites given the low probability of MVFR
ceilings. Some very patchy MVFR/IFR ceilings could occur west across
the higher terrain of the Escarpment region but actual TAF sites
should remain VFR. will need to monitor HRRR trends overnight to see
if KSAT/KSSF could briefly go MVFR in the 11-15Z time-frame. OVerall
confidence is low at this time. Surface winds will be south to
southeast at 5-10 knots overnight with some periodic gusts to near
15-20 knots near KDRT by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
The mid and upper level ridge will continue to stretch from west to
east across the southern U.S. through the weekend. The ridge axis is
just about right over south central Texas, so we expect little change
in conditions from today through Sunday. A little drier air will work
into the northern portions of the area for Saturday and Sunday, so
the Heat Advisory area will be scaled back to counties east of
Interstate 35 for those two afternoons.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The ridge begins to break down and thin out, with easterly flow
becoming established across the northern Gulf by midweek. This
onshore flow will increase PW and allow easterly waves to enter the
state. With typical summertime instability already in place, the
ingredients will then be present for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms. The best chances will be Tuesday and Wednesday
across the coastal plains, but many locations in south central Texas
will remain hot and dry through the end of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              76 100  76 100  77 /  -    0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  99  75 100  76 /  -    0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  99  74 100  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            74  97  74  98  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 101  78 103  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  98  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75 100  75 102  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  99  75 100  76 /  -    0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  99  76  99  77 /   0   0   0  -    0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  99  76 101  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76  99  76 101  77 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Atascosa...Bastrop...Bexar...Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...
Fayette...Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes...Lavaca...Lee...
Travis...Williamson...Wilson.

Heat Advisory from 2 PM to 7 PM CDT Saturday for the following
counties: Atascosa...Bastrop...Caldwell...De Witt...Fayette...
Gonzales...Guadalupe...Karnes...Lavaca...Lee...Wilson.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Allen
Synoptic/Grids...Oaks
Public Service/Data Collection...30



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