Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 120515
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather conditions Tuesday afternoon with very
  low RH values below 20%

- Soaking rain expected Wednesday night into Thursday across
  southern Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Very warm & dry conditions have developed this afternoon as
expected, with temperatures in the 70s & relative humidity
values in the teens across southwest Minnesota. Winds are
relatively light around 10 mph or less, which has limited the
threat for critical fire weather conditions, but extra caution
is still advised with any outdoor burning this afternoon.
Temperatures have been slower to warm this afternoon from
central Minnesota into western Wisconsin with many places still
in the 50s as of 2 PM. It`s still uncertain whether we`ll warm
the extra few degrees needed for record highs at MSP/STC/EAU,
but regardless it`s a balmy day for early March with
temperatures 15-20 degrees above normal.

Similar warm & very dry conditions are expected Tuesday, however
the warmest temperatures will set up over eastern Minnesota and
western Wisconsin where temperatures will approach 70 degrees.
Relative humidity values will again approach 20% if not drop
into the teens, but wind speeds of 5-10 mph will mitigate the
potential for fast-spreading wildfires. Despite the light winds,
outdoor fires could still spread with the low humidity values &
very dry fuels, so extra caution is again advised with any
outdoor burning.

Wednesday will be a few degrees cooler & still dry, but our best
chance for rain so far this month arrives overnight Wednesday
into Thursday as deepening low over the central plains moves
into the mid- Mississippi valley. A broad precipitation shield
will develop ahead & to the north of this low, with ensemble
guidance trending wetter for southern Minnesota & western
Wisconsin over the last 12 hours. Rainfall amounts of 0.5-1"
look likely for at least southern Minnesota, with the
uncertainty now regarding whether the precipitation shield
continues to shift any farther north into central Minnesota &
the Twin Cities metro. The bulk of the precipitation is expected
to fall as rain during the day Thursday into Thursday night, but
some snow could mix in overnight Thursday into Friday morning
as temperatures cool close to freezing with colder air filtering
into the area. Any snow accumulation more than a dusting would
likely only accumulate on roofs & grassy surfaces.

Temperatures cool closer to typical values for mid-March
Thursday through the weekend with northwesterly winds & widespread
cloud cover associated with the low-pressure, along with the
precipitation across southern Minnesota. Daytime temperatures
will generally be in the mid to upper 40s (still 5-10 degrees
above normal) but will be much cooler wherever precipitation
falls Thursday into Friday. Temperatures cool even more heading
in to next week as a deep trough develops over the Great Lakes
& eastern CONUS. Ensemble guidance show a strong signal for
below-normal temperatures Monday through Wednesday - our first
stretch of below-normal temperatures since mid- February. A few
disturbances will pivot around the trough as it builds into the
Great Lakes this weekend, which will likely generate a few
rounds of light rain or snow showers Saturday through Monday
deepening in the time of day.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Mar 12 2024

A rather benign TAF period is in store with SCT/BKN high clouds
and a gradual wind shift. Winds are fairly light and variable to
start, eventually turning 300-330 at or below 10kts later in the
period.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. Wind NE 5-10kts.
THU...MVFR/VFR, chc IFR/RA. Wind NE 10-15G20-25kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind W 10-15G20kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...TDH


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