Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 150859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
359 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

The last band of light rain was moving southeast across east central
Minnesota early this morning. This band of light rain was associated
with the comma-head/deformation zone of the departing storm system.
Most of this precipitation will exit Minnesota by 6 am, and through
most of west central Wisconsin by 9 am. The back edge of the cloud
cover should move through most of Minnesota by 9 am, but likely
continuing in west central Wisconsin until noon.

Another fast, but weak short wave was evident across northwest North
Dakota early this morning. This system will provide for more cloud
cover this afternoon in central/east central Minnesota, and into
west central Wisconsin during the evening. Although this short wave
is weak, there is enough moisture associated with it to produce some
sprinkles or light rain in central, and east central Minnesota late
this afternoon, and into west central Wisconsin this evening. Once
this system moves out of the area and winds die off in the evening,
temperatures will fall to near the freezing mark and allow for frost
to form. Although most areas in southern/central Minnesota have
already received a frost/freeze this season, some areas along the
Iowa border, southeast Minnesota, and portions of west central
Wisconsin have not seen a widespread frost. Therefore, if conditions
warrant, a freeze warning or a frost advisory will be issued later
today in the areas.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

There is little to discuss in the long term aside from the much
above normal temperatures building in.

A very quiet pattern will persist across the country this week
with an expansive mid level ridge stretching from coast to coast,
keeping the storm track well to the north. Surface high pressure
near the eastern seaboard will sustain a steady southerly flow
from the Plains through the western Great Lakes. The only
exception through the period will come Wednesday due to a brief
weakness in the ridge allowing a front to dip through. By
Thursday the front will wash out and the southerly flow will

The warmest days are expected to be Friday and Saturday when highs
could approach 80 degrees. Thermal ridging with 925 mb temps
exceeding +17C will move in ahead of a front progged to reach the
area Saturday night. Temperatures may need to be nudged upward
again in future forecasts.

Until Saturday, PoPs are zero and sky cover is quite scant. Going
to be quite a week weatherwise.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1038 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The deformation band of light rain will swing across the area
from west to east overnight. Attendant ceilings will mostly be in
the 1500-2500ft range, with pockets of IFR. Visibilities
attendant with the rain will generally be in the 3-5sm range.
North/northwest winds will gust to between 20 and 25 knots
overnight, then subside on Sunday morning and gradually back to
west/southwest. Scattered to broken mid/high clouds will filter
across the area on Sunday, but VFR conditions are expected.

Expect cigs to be around/below 1500 feet overnight, then scatter
out and rise to 2000ft around 13z, with VFR developing by 17z.

Mon-Thu...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.




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