Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 062355
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
555 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

Current water vapor imagery showing the upper trough beginning to
drop southeast across the cwa. Fairly widespread snow showers
associated with this feature and still believe it will exit the
southeast cwa around 03z or snow. Some light accumulation
possible, generally one half inch or less. Some clearing possible
behind this system into early Thursday before some mid clouds
move across. We should see overnight temperatures drop off
through the teens to some single digits as the sky clears and
winds die off some. Highs Thursday afternoon are expected remain
nearly constant to Wednesday afternoons readings.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

The longer term concerns remain the eastern CONUS trough and
timing and strength of resultant short waves rotating around the
Hudson Bay circulation.

Initially we have a weak trough dropping southeast over the region
into Thursday night. This will spread mainly mid/high level clouds
over the area. Temperatures shouldn`t drop off that much into
Thursday night before the next scheduled short wave arrives
Friday/Friday night. Both the GFS and ECMWF drop a rather vigorous
short wave southeast across the cwa. The best forcing remains over
the east into Friday night and we should see at least 1 to 3
inches of snow over west central Wisconsin. We increased PoPs to
high likely for now and extended higher PoPs into east central
MN.

This system exits the area Saturday and there does appear to be at
least a period of stronger northwest winds in the wake of the
system into Saturday. Brief warming is indicated ahead of the next
cold front through Sunday with another chance of mainly light
snow Sunday night into Monday.

The deterministic models diverge some on handling the
amplification of the trough to the east as the Saturday system
departs. This will leave some wider spread in the overall
temperature trend into early next week. The GFS does drop colder
air over most of the cwa for Tuesday in the wake of the Monday
cold front. We remain near the baroclinic zone through at least
midweek next week with the continuation of clipper-type systems
moving through with generally light QPF and cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CST Wed Dec 6 2017

MVFR cigs with ocnl IFR vsbys in -SHSN will quickly depart this
evening. Improving conditions move in from the north, with
scattered clouds likely later tonight. Still have strong
northwest winds gusting to 25 kts possible into this evening.
Then diminishing and become lighter w-nw into Thursday.

KMSP... Periods of MVFR ceilings, -shsn and reduced visibility
should end between 01-02z. Northwest winds will remain gusty into
this evening and become light nw into Thursday. Only expect some
mid clouds Thursday as weak upper ridging takes place.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Fri...MVFR possible with Chc -SN. Wind W-NW 5-10 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Sun...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...TDK


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