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000
FXUS63 KMPX 271744
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1244 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NOTED ROTATING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING.

07Z RADAR IMAGERY ILLUSTRATES SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LOW ARE ALREADY BLOSSOMING ACROSS NORTHERN MN. THE LOW CENTER
IS FORECAST TO DROP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI TO
SOUTHERN WI THIS MORNING. THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SEE SCATTERED COLD
POOL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MN ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI WHERE THE LIFT AND MOISTURE IS THE
HIGHEST...WITH SPOTTIER ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. SCATTERED ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY LINGER THIS AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN AS A
TRAILING LOBE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DRIFTS OVERHEAD.

TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 7 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS...WITH HIGHS FROM 70 TO 75 DEGREES. A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO MAKING IT FEEL LIKE A COOL
LATE-JULY DAY...AS SUSTAINED SPEEDS REACH 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS.

TONIGHT BRINGS CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. COULD SEE
SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...MAINLY FROM
EASTERN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE THEME OF THE WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS SEASONABLE AND
SUNNY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL LEAD TO A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. A
STRIP OF H500 POSITIVE VORTICITY OWING TO THE SPEED CHANGE WILL
SET UP OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE A SECOND AREA OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY WILL RESIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OWING
TO THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE PARKED OVER JAMES BAY CANADA. THIS
LEAVES MN/WI IN A FAVORABLE REGION FOR DRY WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRAY LITTLE FROM THE LOWER 80S
EACH DAY NEXT WEEK.

THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR A ROGUE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AND BE THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT APPEARS
THURSDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF HINT AT THAT SCENARIO.
THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIP...BUT
FEEL THIS IS A VERY WEAK SIGNAL/LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. IN ALL
LIKELIHOOD MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE ZERO PRECIP NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTH AND WEST AND EXITING THE SOUTH THSI
EVENING. SOME MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS AND WILL
GRADUALLY THIS OUT THIS EVENING FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINSIH AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. IF CLOUDS CLEAR COMPLETELY TO THE EAST...MAY SEE
SOME FOG OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD AT
THE MOMENT. WILL HAVE TO LOOK A THIS AGAIN FOR THE NEXT FORECAST
ISSUANCE.

KMSP...
A BKN-OVC035-045 DECK SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED AS WELL. CONTINUE VFR AFTER THAT. STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND REMAIN NORTH INTO
MONDAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WINDS N 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WINDS NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...DWE