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000
FXUS63 KMPX 010958
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
358 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE DRIFTING EAST INTO
WESTERN WI EARLY THIS MORNING THANKS TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDING
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE FLURRY CHANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE ENDING. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE SOMEWHAT BY
MIDDAY BETWEEN SHORT WAVES BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OVER NORTH DAKOTA
SLIDES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR A FEW FLURRIES BACK TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN MN
ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
ALONG THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS AND COLDER
TEMPS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE LONG TERM CONCERN IS TIMING OF STORM SYSTEM/NEXT ARCTIC COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE LOW
OVER COLORADO AND MONDAY NIGHT AND LIFTING OUT FROM KANSAS TO
LOWER MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM/160-170KTS AT 250MB. THIS ARCS NORTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TUESDAY AND SHOULD FOCUS BEST FRONTGENETICAL FORCING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING TUESDAY PERIOD.
INITIAL SHOT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA DEVELOPS INTO SOUTHWEST MN
LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON. QUESTION REMAINS HOW QUICKLY AIRMASS WILL
SATURATE. THE 00Z GFS WAS VERY BULLISH IN SATURATING THE
SOUTHWEST BY 00Z TUE. FOR THE MOMENT...WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST FOR NOW.

THIS SHOULD SPREAD FAIRLY RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS MUCH OT THE CWA
INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH AN INCH OR TWO SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER
MAINLY THE MN PORTION OF THE CWA. AS THE JET STREAKS OFF TO THE
EAST TUESDAY AND THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES INTO THE WEST...THE BETTER
SNOW WILL FOCUS MORE TO THE EAST FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WC WI.
IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WE DID TRAIL POPS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE MAIN FOCUS TURNS TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING TUESDAY
MORNING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA...AND THEN SPREADING
INTO SC MN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY
AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH EXPECTED...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS A
POSSIBILITY. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON THIS DEVELOPMENT. BEING A
LATER 4TH PERIOD AND 5TH PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF ON WATCH ISSUANCE
AT THIS TIME. IF WEATHER PARAMETERS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN THE
12Z MODEL RUNS...A BLIZZARD WATCH WILL LIKELY HAVE TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

THE SYSTEM EXITS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BETTER PRESSURE RISES MOVING
OFF OVER IOWA.  WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING THROUGH ABOUT 06Z WED. CLEARING THEREAFTER
WITH BRIEF COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED THEREAFTER WITH A
BETTER SHOT OF A WARMING TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. THERE WILL BE A FEW POCKETS
OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION...BUT TAKE ON A WEST/NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE
TROUGH. GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE AROUND 15KTS...BUT SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET.

KMSP...
AT THIS TIME EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILINGS TO PASS TO THE NORTH OF
KMSP...SO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR WITH MVFR/IFR -SN DEVELOPING LATE. WINDS S AT 10KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR SN LIKELY. WINDS S 10KTS BECOMING NW 20G30KTS AFTER
18Z.
WED...VFR. WINDS NW 15G20KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF
LONG TERM...DWE
AVIATION...JRB