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000
FXUS63 KMPX 070022 AAA
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
622 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 622 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA EARLIER DUE TO AN INCREASE IN ACCIDENTS AND
DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE ADVISORY WILL GO UNTIL 9 PM
WHEN WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME.

18Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TO A BIT MORE ORGANIZED FREEZING
RAIN EVENT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. 00Z MPX SOUNDING MEASURED A PW VALUE OF 0.37
INCH AND NAM/RAP/GFS SHOWS THIS VALUE INCREASING TO BETWEEN
0.6-0.7 INCH LATE TONIGHT...SO PRETTY GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MAY NEED TO
HOIST A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY THERE PENDING SOME EARLY RETURNS OF
THE 00Z MODELS AND THE 21Z HOPWRF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

SIMILAR SCENARIO TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
REMAINING NORTH OF MPX CWA...WITH ONLY MINOR CHGS RELATED TO
POPS/WX.

MODELS CONTINUE A VERY DISORGANIZED PRECIPITATION/PTYPE FIELD ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST STARTING TONIGHT...AND ENDING FRIDAY MORNING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS MN/WI. THE ONLY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TEMPS
WHICH WILL LIKELY HOLD THRU THE NIGHT BETWEEN 25 AND 30
DEGREES...AND JUST ABV FREEZING IN WC/SW MN. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR FREEZING PRECIPITATION AS TEMPS HOLD BELOW FREEZING IN MOST
LOCATIONS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS RICH AS PER FOG/LOW CLDS
ACROSS THE REGION. IT WILL LIKELY EXPAND/REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH USUALLY FOG/LOW CLDS
DON/T NECESSARILY DEVELOP DRIZZLE...YOU NEED SOME TYPE OF LIFT
USUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH WAA. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE LIFT IS ABV THE
SATURATED LAYER BLW 3K. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING IN TERMS OF MEASURABLE.
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND EXPANDS EASTWARD TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON AMTS. CURRENT...MINIMAL QPF AMTS ARE NOTED IN THE
FORECAST...BUT IT COULD CHG BASED ON MOISTURE DEPTH AND WAA.

BY FRIDAY AFTN...THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...CUTTING OFF
ANY CHC/S OF PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED AND THE SMALL CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST THAT DO EXIST SIMPLY REFLECT A WEIGHTED BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE THIS MORNING. AS
WAS STATED SO ELEGANTLY IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE COLD ADVECTION
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL SCOUR OUT THE PRECIP AND MAKE FOR A COOLER
START TO THE WEEKEND. WARM ADVECTION KICKS IN ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPS
LIKELY CLIMBING INTO THE 40S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 2-3 WEEKS. IN
TERMS OF MELTING THE COLD/DEEP SNOW PACK...WE WILL LIKELY DUE A BIT
MORE DAMAGE ON MONDAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY DUE TO THE INCREASING
DEWPOINTS /ACTUALLY GETTING UP NEAR FREEZING/. THE TIMING ISN`T
QUITE RIGHT TO OPTIMIZE THE WARMING ON MONDAY GIVEN THE SURGING WARM
SECTOR ARRIVES IN THE MORNING AND THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALREADY BEGINS
NEAR THE NOON HOUR. EVEN THOUGH WE SHOULD SEE BACK-TO-BACK 40S FOR
HIGHS SUN-MON...THE SNOW PACK IS TOO EXTENSIVE TO EXPECT VISUAL
IMPACTS. PROBABLY JUST A LOT OF WATER IN LOCAL ROADWAYS DUE TO
MELTING SNOW AND CLOGGED STORM DRAINS. THERE IS A BRIEF COOL DOWN
AFTER MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT RAIN-SNOW PRECIP EVENT MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NOTHING TOO EXCITING AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
MINNESOTA AT TAF ISSUANCE TIME WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES
OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOME THIS EVENING AND
THINK CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH
TONIGHT AND BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A BAND OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN MAY ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT AND HAVE INCLUDED
THIS IN THE TAFS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

KMSP...MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME IFR THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AT
THAT LEVEL THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT AFTERWARD.
BEST CHANCE FOR -FZDZ WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 10-14Z WITH THE
FRONT...BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW 5-10 KTS...BECOMING W 5 KT.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT.
MON...VFR. WINDS SW 5 KT...BECOMING NW 5-10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ065-
     067-073>076-082>085-091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BORGHOFF
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF