Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 131153

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
753 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017


Issued at 329 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Weakening low pressure, formally Irma, will approach from the
south today and tonight and bring some cloudiness and perhaps a
few showers to southern lower Michigan. Otherwise high pressure
and above normal temperatures will dominate our weather through
the coming weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Will maintain low chance pops today and tonight for a few showers
south of a MKG to MOP line as guidance depicts a narrow band or
two of mid level fgen related forcing pivoting nwwd around north
side of approaching upper low. Overall this system looks quite
weak though, and most areas will remain dry.

The upper low moves to near IND by 00Z tonight then heads ene
from there, reaching PA on Thursday. Height rises take place
behind it, with a upper ridge rebuilding over Michigan Thursday-
Friday and holding into the coming weekend. Look for any lingering
clouds south and east of GRR to pull away on Thursday then mainly
clear skies after that. Still a patchy ground fog risk at night
as sfc winds remain light/calm.

High temperatures are tricky today since extent/persistence of
cloud cover is questionable. Will have lower 70s for highs along
I-94 where thicker/lower cloud cover is anticipated and upper 70s
northwest of GRR where considerable sunshine is still expected.
All areas should be back up around 80 Thursday and Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 329 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Fair and unseasonably warm weather will continue through most of the
long range forecast period. An upper level ridge will continue to
bring fair wx Friday night through Saturday and persistent southerly
flow waa will help to boost max temps into the upper 70`s to lower
80`s this weekend.

A weak front will bring a chance for a few rain showers Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night into Monday. A surface high pressure
ridge will then build in to bring fair wx for the early to middle
portion of next week. High temperatures will continue to reach
well into the 70`s to near 80 degrees through then.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 752 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Areas of MVFR cigs are likely today south of I-96 including the
AZO/BTL/JXN terminals. Otherwise VFR cigs are expected along with
a few isolated rain showers. For tonight we should be predominately
VFR in the evening although areas of fog/stratus are expected to
develop after 06Z. Fairly widespread IFR or lower conditions are
possible after 09Z tonight.


Issued at 329 AM EDT Wed Sep 13 2017

Light winds to persist over Lake MI this week although southerly
flow could strengthen Sat and Sat night as frontal boundary
approaches from the west. This could lead to some higher waves
of 2-4 feet north of Holland over the weekend.


Issued at 1135 AM EDT Tue Sep 12 2017

Rivers are running at or below normal levels and dry weather will
dominate for much of the next week under persistent high pressure.
The only exception may be Wednesday, as the remnants of Irma produce
areas of light rain. Amounts will likely be under a tenth of an
inch, and many areas may not see any rain. Abnormally dry conditions
across Southern Lower Michigan (as defined by the National Drought
Mitigation Center) will continue with little relief and rivers will
continue to run a little low.




LONG TERM...Laurens
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