Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 191503
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1103 AM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

LATEST UPDATE...
Hydro

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Thu May 19 2016

High pressure will essentially be parked over the Great Lakes region
from today right through the weekend. Expect plenty of sunshine and
gradually warming temperatures. Highs the next several days will be
around 70, warming well into the 70s on Sunday and Monday. The next
chance for rain does not come until the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Thu May 19 2016

Concerns are low in the short term with dry weather forecast
throughout. High temperatures should nudge up each day from around
70 today into the lower 70s for Friday and Saturday.

We should see a bit of cumulus development again today, but nothing
more than few/scattered. Some RH progs show broken cumulus
potential on Friday. Also, there looks to be a bit of mid cloud
across the south as a 500mb shortwave pushes our direction from the
west. Thinking partly to mostly sunny for Friday. Some mid cloud is
possible again on Saturday. Forecast is optimistic overall cloud
wise, but we will be watching the mid cloud potential with the
shortwave moving through Fri/Sat.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Thu May 19 2016

The warm and dry weather will continue for the last half of the
weekend and Monday as the ridge will remain anchored over the Great
Lakes. The ridge begins to break down and move east early next week
and moisture starts to flow into the Upper Midwest. We`ll probably
see some showers/storms west of the CWA across the Mississippi
Valley Monday night as weak short waves eject from the southwest US.
We decreased pops from guidance Monday night as moisture may take
some time moving east toward the Great Lakes. Latest GFS even has
Tuesday dry as much of the energy remains concentrated in the
southern Plains. It`s the developing low in western Kansas that is
progd to be the catalyst for pcpn potential mid week across Lower
Michigan as it eventually moves east. As a result, thunderstorm
potential should increase as we head toward mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 746 AM EDT Thu May 19 2016

VFR conditions is forecast the next 24 hours and likely well
beyond as high pressure is in firm control of the areas weather.
Some scattered cumulus development is possible today otherwise
skies will be mainly clear through Friday morning. Light and
variable winds are expected outside of a lake breeze this
afternoon pushing through KMKG and towards KGRR. Behind the lake
breeze expect winds of 5 to 10 knots from the west.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Thu May 19 2016

Limited wind the next several days due to high pressure will keep
Lake Michigan on the calm side. Winds are expected to be less than
10 knots into Saturday with an afternoon lake breeze expected each
day. Waves will be 2 feet or less through Saturday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1103 AM EDT Thu May 19 2016

Precipitation forecasts have not changed much with the bulk of
moisture remaining south of Lower Michigan. Rivers are falling
rather steadily with Maple Rapids being the only site that will
remain above advisory criteria. This advisory should be able to
be dropped sometime tomorrow. We have to go beyond the next 5 days
to find any decent chances for rain. Unfortunately, precipitation
may return by the middle of next week and stretch into Memorial
Day weekend.

&&

.GRR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
MI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Duke
SHORT TERM...Duke
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...Duke
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...Duke



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