Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 271720

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
120 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016


Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Rain and snow showers will be ending this morning with fair
weather through Friday as high pressure builds in. The next
chance for wet weather comes on Saturday as low pressure tracks
across Lower Michigan.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Rain and snow showers across the eastern forecast area will end
this morning as high pressure builds in, but residual clouds
should persist through the afternoon. There`s a brief break
tonight and Friday before another low and trailing front bring
some showers over the weekend.

Expect the bulk of the qpf with the next low to hold off until
after Saturday. There should be enough moisture return by Saturday
to see a few showers break out as overrunning pattern develops.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

We continue to see a trend toward less rain chances in the long term
through next Wed.

The best chance for rain in the long term right now looks to come at
the beginning of the period Sat night into the first portion of
Sunday. The initial cold frontal passage will take place on
Saturday, with the front stalling out just south of the CWFA.
Another short wave will zip through the region Sat night and provide
the chance of rain showers as the short wave interacts with the

A small chance of rain will linger into Sunday, mainly for the SE
portion of the CWFA. We think most of any rain from Sat night should
be gone. We will dry out on Sunday, and this could last through Tue.
High pressure will move through the area on Sun, and then allow for
a nice surge of warmth for Mon-Tue as a strong return flow from the
SW sets up. We could be flirting with 70 by Tue before the frontal

Cooler air will settle in across the area from Tue night through
Wed behind the frontal passage. Rain chances look fairly low with the
front as all of the upper dynamics stay well north of the area, and
moisture is lacking. A small chance of rain exists on Wed, but we
are expecting a good chance of the day staying dry with high
pressure building in. The GFS accelerates the moisture return in
here by Wed, so a small chc of rain was inserted into the fcst.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Low clouds will persist this afternoon and evening and may expand
tonight. The low level moisture will remain high this
afternoon...although some slight drying is noted in the
models...which could support a slight rise in the cloud bases.
Much of the low level moisture is coming off the lakes as the
airmass is cooler than the water temperatures.  Many areas will
start off IFR...but a trend to MVFR should develop. There is a
possibility that the clouds could scatter out this evening across
the TAF sites. If that happens...IFR and lower fog/stratus
conditions would become likely as the wind will diminish and the
low level moisture will be relatively high.

MVFR looks likely to start the day Friday...with increasing winds
from the south.


Issued at 307 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Winds and waves have decreased and the small craft advisory is
cancelled. After a calm interlude today and tonight, winds and
waves will increase again on Friday and another small craft
advisory will be needed. Gales are also possible late Friday and
Friday night.


Issued at 1043 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Rainfalls from a half inch to over an inch occurred in the past
24 hours. Rivers and streams will stay below bankfull. River
advisories for Sycamore Creek at Holt and Maple River at Maple
Rapids have been cancelled as the rain has not translated into
large river rises. Flooding is not expected.




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