Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 021123
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
623 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
30KT LOW LEVEL JET.  RAP SHOWS THAT THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING.  WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MIXING DOWN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY DAY.  WENT
WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

BRITT

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TSRA OVER N CENTRAL MO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT UIN...BUT CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT AND WILL BE IN THE REGION. OTHERWISE, TSRA MAY ALSO
IMPACT UIN THIS EVENING AS A CDFNT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HOWEVER...TSRA SHUD DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH THE UIN REGION AND
WILL THEREFORE KEEP OUT OF TAF ATTM. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME
SWLY THIS MORNING AND WLY AS THE FNT APPROACHES.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOD TO SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
OZARKS...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS THE STL/SUS/CPS REGION. CHANCES OF
DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACTING THESE TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF ATTM.

TILLY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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