Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 221125

625 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

Will continue to go with a dry forecast today as upper ridge axis
moves across the area.  While better low level moisture will be
advecting toward the area, it will not be moving into central and
northeast Missouri until late afternoon. Expect skies to start off
mostly sunny, but then we will see increasing clouds through the
day. Today should begin the start of the warmup with some sunshine
and 850mb temps near +10C.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

(Tonight through Memorial Day)

The dry period will continue tonight into Saturday as both the NAM
and GFS show the upper ridge building over the the area.  This will
act to temporarily confine any developing low level moisture
advection/convergence over central Missouri. The ridge axis will
begin to move east of the area by Saturday night and Sunday which
will allow from the aforementioned forcing to move into the area.
Have kept going trends of likely or categorical PoPs going
Saturday Night into Memorial Day. Overall preferred the more
consistent ECMWF/NAM for this forecast over the GFS. Timing of the
showers and thunderstorms during this period will be determined by
forcing from mid level shortwaves and low level moisture
convergence. Still expect temperatures over the holiday weekend to
be warmer with highs well into the 70s to around 80 as 850 temps
climb to around +15C.

(Tuesday through next Thursday)

Scattered thunderstorms will continue through the middle of next
week as the ECMWF shows two shortwave troughs with decent low level
moisture advection ahead of them passing through the area on
Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the upper 70s
to the lower 80s given the ECMWF 850mb temperatures are staying
steady around 15C.



.AVIATION:  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri May 22 2015

Dry and VFR with light generally wly winds thru the period. Can
not rule out precip at COU/UIN tonight, but chances too low to
mention in TAF attm.





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