Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 282347
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
647 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

Sprawling ridge of high pressure extending from Saskatchewan Canada
southeast through the Great Plains and into the Midwest.  Extensive
area of diurnal stratocumulus has erupted again today, but this
should dissipate quickly this evening.  Expect a mostly clear night
with unseasonably cool temperatures from the mid 50s to around 60 in
the STL Metro area.

Carney

.LONG TERM:  (Tuesday through Next Monday)
Issued at 325 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

A deep longwave upper TROF will dominate eastern North America thru
the end of the week, resulting in NW flow over our region.  Some
loosening up of this pattern looks to occur for early next week, but
the overall theme remains the same:  an extended period of below
normal temps should be the result with maxes from 80-85 each day
with mins in the 50s and low 60s.  Given how this July has not been
that hot at all, some of our climo sites, such as UIN and COU, could
be in line for a top 5 coolest July on record.

Weak upper level disturbances will trickle down in the NW flow the
next several days, and with marginal levels of moisture and some
favorable lo level instability, low-topped SHRA or even TSRA will be
possible in the afternoon the next couple of days.  See the activity
in northwest IA currently for reference.  It will be a very low PoP
though, with most not receiving anything.  By Thursday, a bit better
moisture but still not great, will allow somewhat deeper convection
to occur and this setup will continue thru the end of the week with
afternoon chances each day.  A drier setup looks set for next week
though.

TES
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Tuesday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

With surface ridge building in will see winds diminish this
evening. Also, diurnal sc continues to dissipate. So will see
clear skies and light and variable winds overnight. Then by mid
morning on Tuesday, winds to pickup a bit from the northwest with
some scattered cu developing.

Specifics for KSTL:
With surface ridge building in will see winds diminish this
evening. Also, diurnal sc continues to dissipate. So will see
clear skies and light and variable winds overnight. Then by mid
morning on Tuesday, winds to pickup a bit from the northwest with
some scattered cu developing.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX




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