Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 150456

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1156 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

A few showers and thunderstorms were moving through parts of
northeast MO and west central IL this afternoon, just south of a
warm front and ahead of weak southwest flow shortwaves.  Relatively
strong and gusty south-southwesterly surface and low level winds
south of the warm front have lead to unseasonably warm temperatures
this afternoon, topping out around 90 degrees in the St Louis metro
area.  An upper level trough over the northern Plains will move
eastward into the Great Lakes region Sunday morning and send a
strong cold front southeastward through our forecast area tonight. A
line of storms is expected along this front which will sweep
southeastward through our area later this evening and overnight.
Some of the storms may be severe this evening across northeast into
central MO and west central IL with the most likely threat being
damaging winds.  The wind shear will be favorable for severe storms
due to a strong southwesterly low level jet and a strong mid level
wind max in the base of the upper level trough. The instability
early this evening will also be favorable for mid October with
surface CAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/Kg across this area.  This
line of storms should gradually weaken late tonight due to weakening
instability as the storms move into east central and southeast MO
and southwest IL.  Lingering showers should continue across
southeast MO and southwest IL Sunday morning, followed by clearing
skies. Strong and gusty northwesterly surface winds will bring much
cooler and drier air into northeast and central MO and west central
IL late tonight and the rest of our area Sunday.  It will feel much
different and more like Fall Sunday with below normal highs forecast
plus windy conditions will make it feel colder.


.LONG TERM...  (Sunday Night through Next Saturday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

The synoptic pattern at the start of the long term period will
feature a trough sliding across much of the Great Lakes and Midwest
regions.  This will promote northwesterly upper-level flow over the
region through the middle of next week, before the flow turns more
zonal and eventually southwesterly by the middle/end of next week.

It appears to be a fairly quiet long term period, as an area of
sprawling high pressure moves into the central part of the country.
Much cooler temperatures are expected Sunday night into Monday. In
fact, given the expected mainly clear skies and light winds, some
areas may dip into the upper 30s Monday morning. This may promote
some patchy frost in a few of the typically cool areas, but a
widespread frost looks unlikely at this time.

Temperatures will slowly warm through next week as the surface ridge
slowly meanders east and the surface flow turns southerly.
Temperatures will warm through the 70s each day, perhaps approaching
the 80s by Friday of next week. It will be dry through much of the
period, although a cold front may approach the area by Saturday
bringing a chance for some showers. However, these is high
uncertainty regarding this front thus went with an ensemble approach
for now.



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Line of showers and a few thunderstorms will move through the
terminals early in the TAF period. Then MVFR conditions are
expected through the mid morning hours before ceilings lift to low
VFR. Skies are expected to clear during the afternoon hours as
drier air moves into the area. West to northwest winds are
expected to be gusty through at least afternoon.


Line of showers and a few thunderstorms will move through the
terminal early in the TAF period. MVFR ceilings can be expected
through at least mid morning before lifting to low MVFR. Skies
will clear during the afternoon hours. West to northwest winds
will be gusty into the evening hours.





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