000
FXUS63 KLSX 301919
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
219 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Tonight)
Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

Not many changes in store for tonight. Diurnal cu will dissipate
after sunset, but ci shield shud remain largely in place. S/W over
KS/OK region shud begin to dig slightly as the upper low over
Hudson Bay helps to push it swd. This shud keep precip S of the
CWA overnight. Latest RADAR trends show precip is further N than
mdl guidance suggests. However, much of the precip over SW MO is
largely convective and shud gradually dissipate, at least
partially, after sunset. All of that said, have added slight PoPs
to the srn tier of counties late tonight to account for
uncertainty in the nrn edge of the precip shield.

As for temps tonight, with light winds and clouds clearing out,
have trended twd the cooler guidance tonight except for srn
portions of the CWA where clouds will linger thru the night.

Tilly

.LONG TERM: (Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 259 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

In the continued absence of any strong signals for either
widespread precip or hot/humid conditions, there has been little
change in thinking since the previous forecast package was issued.
Ongoing northwest flow pattern will maintain cooler than average
temperatures through the end of the week and into the first part
of the weekend. Occasional ill-defined shortwaves moving through
the longwave trough might produce light rain showers or even a few
thunderstorms over the next few days, especially during the
afternoon hours. The upper air pattern begins to change over the
weekend, and temperatures/humidity are expected to warm back
towards seasonable levels next week after the departure of the
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS and the return of southerly
low-level flow over MO/IL.

Kanofsky

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

VFR and dry with winds aob 8 kts expected thru the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
Saint Louis     85  64  86  66 /  10  10  10   5
Quincy          82  58  83  62 /  10  10  10  10
Columbia        82  59  84  61 /  10  10  10   5
Jefferson City  82  60  84  61 /  10  10  10   5
Salem           83  58  83  62 /  10  10  10   5
Farmington      77  60  78  59 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX