Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 192019

319 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Surface ridge continues to move off to the east allowing southerly
flow to move back in. So it will be a bit milder tonight with lows
in the upper 50s to low 60s. With surface ridge still over far
southern portions of forecast area, plenty of low level moisture and
winds remaining light, could see some patchy fog over the eastern
ozarks towards daybreak, so added mention.


.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

In the meantime, next weather system to move in by Saturday
afternoon with showers and thunderstorms developing and spreading
southeast across region as cold front moves through. Models have
some timing differences, so for now only made minor adjustments to
the grids. Best chances of precipitation will be Saturday afternoon
and evening before tapering off Sunday morning. Exact location of
where activity will initiate hard to pin down as well. Could see
some activity in morning with more stuff firing up by afternoon, as
for where, it will depend on where the cold front is.

On Sunday after system exits, begin to cool back down as next ridge
of high pressure builds in. Cooler and drier weather to persist
through the middle of next week with highs in the 70s and lows in
the 50s. Then as ridge slides off, temperatures to moderate by the
end of the work week.


.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

Ridge of high pressure extends southwest from the Ohio Valley
through east central Missouri into eastern Oklahoma. VFR flight
conditions will prevail this afternoon with scattered to broken
clouds around 4000 FT in parts of central and southeast Missouri.
Expect only a few clouds around 4000 FT elsewhere. VFR conditions
should continue to prevail tonight, except localized areas of
river fog which may reduce visibilities to IFR in some spots.
River valley fog should dissipate quickly after sunrise and VFR
conditions are expected to prevail Saturday morning.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions will prevail at Lambert at least through
Saturday morning. Wind will shift from the south the west-
southwest Saturday morning which will force a runway swap. There is
a slight chance of a thunderstorm Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold
front which will move through the area Saturday night, but
probabilities are too low to mention in the TAF at this time.



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