Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 040459
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1159 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO STALL OVER SOUTHEAST MO AND BE A
FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH THIS IS GETTING MORE
DIFFICULT WITH THE SUN NOW BEING DOWN. THE DIRUNAL CUMULUS CLOUD
FIELD HAS LARGELY DISSIPATED, YIELDING CLEAR SKIES AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO GOING
FORECAST.

A RARE DRY DAY STILL ON TAP FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY AS THE FRONT TO
OUR SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO DISSOLVE, WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
SETTING IN JUST TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE UPWARD
FROM PERSISTENCE, BUT ONLY GRADUALLY UNTIL THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE EITHER EXITS OR GREATLY WEAKENS.

TES

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS THIS
AFTERNOON. THEY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE, SKIES TO
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH NEXT SYSTEM TO
APPROACH REGION BY SUNDAY, SO COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MO BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON INDEPENDENCE DAY
AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY.

AS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN ON MONDAY, WILL SEE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS THIS FRONT STALLS OUT OVER REGION. DO
NOT NEED ANYMORE RAIN AFTER RECORD RAINFALL IN JUNE AND FLOODING ON
THE RIVERS STILL ONGOING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S MONDAY, BRIEFLY
COOLING OFF INTO THE 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER
AND RAINFALL, THEN WARM BACK UP INTO THE 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT IS FOG DEVELOPMENT.
THINK MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TONIGHT...BUT MVFR AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED IFR FOG IS
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI INTO
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. EXPECT THIS AREA OF FOG TO BECOME MORE
PREVALENT ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH
THE NIGHT. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF SUNRISE
SATURDAY MORNING AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AT THE TERMINAL. NOT SURE HOW LOW IT
WILL GET...IFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE...BUT I THINK IT MOST LIKELY
WON`T GET BELOW 3SM. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER SUNRISE AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REST OF
THE DAY.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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