Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 212029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
329 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms began developing earlier this
afternoon within the region enhanced diurnal cu across eastern MO
and southwest IL where SBCAPE is 4000+ j/kg.  Warmer air aloft
compared to previous days and lack of any forcing mechanism has
limited both coverage and longevity. There will remain a threat of
short-lived isolated showers and thunderstorms through late
afternoon/early evening. Attention then turns to the overnight
period and potential for shower and thunderstorm activity to our
north to impact the area. The main focus tonight should remain
across the upper Midwest and into the Great Lakes region. North-
northwest flow aloft on the eastern periphery of the upper high
merits close watching of this activity. However, the aforementioned
warm air aloft featuring mid level temps of 13+ degC prevalent
across northern MO into west central IL should prove detrimental to
organized convection. Warm and humid conditions tonight will remain
the key story.


.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Still looks like Friday and Saturday will be the hottest days during
this heat wave. Models have been consistent with 850 temps in the 22
to 25C range, giving us highs in the 95 to 100+ range both days.
With dewpts in the 70s, will continue to see heat index values well
over 105. As for precipitation chances on Friday they are very low
due to strong capping, so kept slight chance pops for southern
portions of forecast area, depending on where any boundaries may
trigger isolated activity similar to today. As for Friday
Night/Saturday, models are indicating more MCS development along
boundary to our north, which may track a bit more to the south or
southeast, so have slight chance pops mainly for areas along and
east of Mississippi River for Friday night and most of forecast area
on Saturday. SPC has placed areas to the east of Mississippi River
in a marginal risk for Saturday.

With the slower movement of this frontal boundary, the update to the
Heat Warning still looks good with it going til 8 pm Sunday. Will
see increasing chances of showers/storms on Sunday, mainly over
northeast MO, west central/southwest IL.

Front to begin moving into forecast area by 00z Monday and stalling
out just south of forecast area by Monday evening. Best chance of
storms will be Sunday night and Monday before tapering off Monday
night. Will see temps near normal for rest of forecast period with
next best chance for rain Wednesday night and Thursday.


.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Diurnal cu has begun to flair-up across eastern MO and southwest
IL with continued heating and destabilization. There could be a
few isolated showers or thunderstorms develop within the region of
growing cu this afternoon, however warmer air aloft will likely
limit coverage. As such I think VFR flight conditions will
dominate the terminals through the forecast period.

Specifics for KSTL:

VFR flight conditions should prevail through the forecast period.
Isolated showers or thunderstorms are not out of the question this
afternoon but probabilities are low and best chances would be
south of the terminal.


MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for Audrain MO-
     Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-
     Gasconade MO-Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln
     MO-Madison MO-Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-
     Osage MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-
     Saint Francois MO-Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte
     Genevieve MO-Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Sunday for Adams IL-Bond
     IL-Brown IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-
     Jersey IL-Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-
     Montgomery IL-Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington


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