Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 262017
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
317 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015

Frontal boundary remains laid out east west across forecast area
as of 19z with MCV/surface low continuing to slide east northeast
along it. Cluster of storms that was over southwestern MO has
moved southeast into northern AR with just some lingering showers
moving through our far southern counties. Otherwise, scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are developing on back side of
system and sliding southeast into forecast area. Best chances of
precipitation will be over our northern counties, as well as the
far southeast where activity may fire up again before sunset ahead
of frontal boundary. Some moderate to heavy rainfall is still
possible in the far north, so kept flash flood watch there til 00z
Saturday. CANCELLED rest of watch a few hours ago. Precipitation
to taper off by midnight most locations with cloud cover beginning
to scatter out from northwest to southeast. As for low temps, low
to mid 60s expected.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Saturday through Next Friday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015

Dry and cooler weather is expected through Saturday night before
next weather system approaches. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will be on the increase Sunday and Sunday night as a
cold front slides through region on northwest flow aloft. Some
decent instability and low level moisture on Sunday/Sunday night
could see some isolated strong to severe storms with this system.

Forecast area to dry out on Monday before next in a series of
systems dives south in active northwest flow. Will have off and on
chances of showers and thunderstorms through next week with best
chances Tuesday night through Thursday and again on Friday.
Temperatures through the period will be in the upper 70s to low 80s
through Monday, then moderate a little bit on Tuesday, before
dipping back down below normal for the rest of the work week.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2015

Main concerns over the next 24 hours will be on chances of rain
and ceiling trends. Actual cold front is still across north-
central Missouri so will have to monitor chances for showers and
possibly a thunderstorm out ahead of this boundary. KUIN most
likely to see rain this afternoon whereas KCOU and metro St. Louis
TAF sites have a lesser chance so included a VCSH group for now.
Thinking ceiling trends will improve a bit through late this
afternoon before coming back down into MVFR...with IFR also
possible...particularly for metro St. Louis terminals. Ceilings
should scatter out by Saturday morning with northerly winds around
10 knots continuing.


Specifics for KSTL:

Main concerns over the next 24 hours will be on chances of rain
and ceiling trends. Actual cold front is still across north-
central Missouri so will have to monitor chances for showers and
possibly a thunderstorm out ahead of this boundary. Have a VCSH
group for late this afternoon/early this evening for nwo but will
continue to have to monitor. Thinking ceiling trends will improve
a bit through late this afternoon before coming back down into
MVFR...with IFR also possible late tonight. Ceilings should scatter out
by Saturday morning with northerly winds around 10 knots
continuing through Saturday afternoon.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Knox MO-Lewis
     MO-Marion MO-Monroe MO-Pike MO-Ralls MO-Shelby MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Adams IL-Brown
     IL-Pike IL.

&&

$$
WFO LSX






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