Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 251738

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1238 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SHORT TERM... (Through Monday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

An amplified upper air pattern featuring a broad longwave trough
covering the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS will guarantee
northwest flow aloft and cooler than normal temperatures through the
early part of the work week. Next chance of precipitation will
arrive late tonight and Monday with a signal of warm advection
showers and storms developing ahead of a potent shortwave rotating
south and east around the broader trough. Could also see some
diurnal convection associated with cold core nature of the
shortwave/trough Monday afternoon.


.LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Atmosphere will become more zonal by mid-week across the Midwest
with temperatures moderating back to seasonal averages. An active
storm track of shortwaves will setup across the Midwest bringing
an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday
night through Friday. Timing of main front and best chances of
widespread rain differ between available global model guidance
with the ECWMF suggesting late Thursday night and Friday morning
and the GFS washing the front out across the southern CWA on
Friday. Rain chances for next weekend will largely depend on how
strong the front is and how far south it can travel. At this point
the GFS would suggest additional rainfall chances south of
Interstate 70 Saturday and Sunday, while the ECWMF keeps the area
dry until late Sunday afternoon.



.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

Disturbance across Kansas this afternoon is expected to stay south
and west of the terminals overnight tonight. KCOU will see an
increase in midlevel cloud cover but expect rain to stay just
south/southwest. Isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms will
likely develop just after this valid TAF package north of KUIN.
Northwest winds will become light/variable tonight before becoming
westerly during the morning hours on Monday.


Rain in Kansas is expected to move SE and stay south of terminal
overnight tonight. Showers and storms should develop well north of
terminal Monday afternoon. These isolated showers/storms will try
and push southward toward the Lambert Field by Monday evening.





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