Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 030002
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
702 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD STILL SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, THOUGH COULD SEE SOME DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS IN THE 60S
CAN BE EXPECTED.

BYRD

.LONG TERM:  (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HOLIDAY WEEKEND TO BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLED JUST SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA, COULD SEE
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S BY
SUNDAY.

THEN NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE REGION BEGINNING SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, BUT COULD SEE RAIN MOST DAYS
NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

BYRD

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70/I-64 CORRIDORS IN MO AND
IL RESPECTIVELY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BREAK UP AND SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODELS ARE SENDING MIXED
SIGNALS TONIGHT FOR CEILINGS. SOME KEEP THE AREA VFR FOR MOST OF
IF NOT ALL NIGHT...WHILE OTHERS REDEVELOP LOW END MVFR AND EVEN
IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN
EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
GOING TAFS WHICH ARE PRETTY PESIMISTIC EXCEPT FOR KUIN. WOULD LIKE
TO SEE A LITTLE MORE MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE I MAKE WHOLESALE
CHANGES TO THE TAFS. ANY LOW CEILINGS THAT DO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
SHOULD THIN AND SCATTER OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THIS EVENING. AM LESS
CONFIDENT ABOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THOUGH. MODELS ARE SENDING MIXED
SIGNALS TONIGHT FOR CEILINGS. SOME KEEP THE AREA VFR FOR MOST OF
IF NOT ALL NIGHT...WHILE OTHERS REDEVELOP LOW END MVFR AND EVEN
IFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT. AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN
EITHER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME...SO HAVE MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE
GOING TAF. WOULD LIKE TO SEE A LITTLE MORE MODEL AGREEMENT BEFORE
I MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES. EXPECT THAT ANY LOW CEILINGS THAT DO
DEVELOP SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY MID-LATE MORNING.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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