Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 060859
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
359 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

TODAY LOOKS LIKE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. DPS ARE FCST TO
INCREASE INTO THE LOW/MID 70S BY AFTN.  COMBINE THOSE WITH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 WILL PRODUCE A UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH
AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE BY AFTERNOON WITH ANY CAP HAVING ERODED BY
LATE MORNING.  A SUBTLE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE OZARKS BETWEEN 16Z-18Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN DRIFT
NORTH WHILE SLOWLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE THRU THE AFTN. WHILE THE
OVERALL COVERAGE ISN`T EXPECTED TO BE ALL THAT GREAT, PWATS OF 1.5"
TO 2" MEANS THAT ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING.  ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW.

MILLER

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR A
LARGE SECTION OF THE CWA IN COLLABORATION WITH KANSAS CITY AND
SPRINGFIELD MISSOURI OFFICES. THE SCENARIO THAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED
THE LAST FEW DAYS REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND THEN BECOMING NEARLY
STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...NEARLY ALL
GUIDANCE NOW DEPICTS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING AND TRAVERSING THE
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FINALLY...WITH PW VALUES FORECAST
TO BE IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES IT WOULD SEEM THAT ALL THE INGREDIENTS
ARE IN PLACE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR. GENERALLY BELIEVE
WIDESPREAD TWO DAY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN
THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES. AFTER A
TYPICALLY WARM AND HUMID DAY TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW
NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH INTO THE REGION BY THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL SUMMER VALUES
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S NEXT WEEKEND.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

EXPECT VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO WAVER BETWEEN 4-6SM FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. I THINK THERE`S TOO MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER WIND TO
SUPPORT FOG MUCH THICKER THAN THAT. HOWEVER...NOTICED THAT KUNO
CAME IN WITH AN 800FT CEILING AT 0435Z. EXPECT THESE IFR CEILINGS
TO SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. NOT
REALLY SURE HOW FAR NORTHEAST THESE LOW CLOUDS WILL GET BEFORE
SUNRISE, BUT AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR ARE DEFINITELY UNDER
THE GUN. MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN`T SEEM TO BE TOO INTERESTED IN
SPREADING THE CEILINGS AS FAR NORTH AS I-70, BUT I CAN`T RULE IT
OUT. STRATUS AND FOG/HAZE SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN 1-3 HOURS OF
SUNRISE. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING, BUT THE WIDE-SPREAD NATURE OF THIS
PRECIPITATION MAKES IT UNLIKELY TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
REMAINDER OF MONDAY SHOULD BE VFR WITH INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
FLOW...BECOMING GUSTY UP TO AROUND 20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, MOST
LIKELY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI. MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
EVENING...MOSTLY OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

EXPECT VSBY AT LAMBERT TO WAVER BETWEEN 5-6SM FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT STRATUS WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF
FORMING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY MOVE UP TO OVERSPREAD THE
TERMINAL BY SUNRISE, BUT THE CHANCE THIS WILL HAPPEN DOES NOT LOOK
HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT A CEILING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM MAY BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL DURING THE MORNING...BUT LIKE THE STRATUS IT LOOKS LIKE
PROBABILITIES ARE LOW THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW...BECOMING GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE`S A BETTER CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT
PROBABLY ONLY 30% AT BEST. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
EVENING...BUT THERE`S ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT...TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE STILL UNCERTAIN SO HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

CARNEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     90  73  79  64 /  40  60  80  80
QUINCY          87  66  74  58 /  40  90  60  50
COLUMBIA        88  68  73  65 /  50  90  70  80
JEFFERSON CITY  89  71  74  65 /  50  80  80  80
SALEM           89  73  81  64 /  20  40  80  60
FARMINGTON      87  73  82  67 /  40  40  80  80

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-
     FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-
     LINCOLN MO-MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
     OSAGE MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
     LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
     FOR ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-
     MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MONROE IL-PIKE IL-ST. CLAIR IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX



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