Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 160938

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
338 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Temperatures will begin their warmup today as a surface ridge has
moved off to the east of the area.  Winds have turned out of the
southwest in the wake of the ridge, and the RAP and NAM show that
this trend will continue through tonight.  Skies will be mostly
clear through tonight as a upper ridge builds into Missouri and
Illinois from the west.  RAP forecast soundings are showing mixing
into the 900-850mb range which favors highs this afternoon at or
above the warmer NAM MOS temperatures.  Winds will stay up tonight
keeping temperatures well above normal and close to a compromise of
MOS temperatures.


.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Warm forecast continues for FRiday through Wednesday.  The upper
level ridge will move from the Great Plains into the Mississippi
Valley on Friday ahead of the cut off low which is currently
spinning over northwest Mexico.  850mb temps rise to 10-12C.  It
doesn`t look like we`ll mix that high Friday according to forecast
soundings...but 900+ millibars is certainly attainable which should
yield highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.  Aforementioned cut off
low will move across the Mississippi Valley on Saturday.  Light
precip still possible across parts of southeast Missouri and
southern Illinois as the low moves south of the area.  Clouds
associated with the low and precip should keep temperatures from
warming quite as high as Friday...but will still warm into the mid
60s to around 70.

Ridge will build back overhead Sunday and remain in place Monday.
Temperatures will warm back up again and records could be set either
day.  Another upper low will move across Texas into the northern
Gulf of Mexico Monday night and will drift slowly east through
Wednesday.  This will weaken the ridge over the central U.S. and
allow temperatures to cool a bit.  This system will also push low
level moisture up out of the Gulf which will bring the area a chance
of rain beginning Monday night and lingering through Wednesday.



.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

VFR conditions and dry wx will prevail at the TAF sites thru the
valid period. Light and variable winds, with a RIDGE passing thru,
will become southerly by late tonight and strengthen some during
the day on Thursday in response to a tightening gradient.
Indications for a very marginal LLWS event continues and will
continue to hold off on mention at this time.



Issued at 255 PM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Expect relative humidity to drop below 25 percent this afternoon
across a good portion of the area. Additionally, wind over parts
of central and eastern Missouri will increase to 15 to 20 mph with
higher gusts. 10 hour fuel moisture values dropped to between 6
and 8 percent yesterday afternoon, and with warmer and windier
conditions today, we should have no problem getting RH values at
least as low if not lower today. Have therefore issued a Red Flag
Warning for parts of central and eastern Missouri starting at 11
AM and ending at 6 PM.


Issued at 318 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Record Highs

     2/17  2/18  2/19  2/20
STL: 77    74    77    78
COU: 74    71    76    76
UIN: 70    68    71    72


MO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for Audrain MO-Boone MO-Callaway MO-Cole MO-
     Franklin MO-Gascosnade MO-Lincoln MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-
     Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Warren MO.



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