Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 020452
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1152 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, AND NOT EXPECTING ANYMORE FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS WERE DEPICTING SOME
QPF OR CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST MO LATE TONIGHT ON THE NOSE OF
A SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET AND AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE OVERTOPPING
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS ON
THE WESTERN OR NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE/850 MB RIDGE.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, AND 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

GKS

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IN AREAS WHERE A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 2000 J/KG MOSTLY
UNCAPPED SBCAPE SO A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY PULSE UP IN INTENSITY...
HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD KEEP STORMS BRIEF AND
UNORGANIZED. AS INSTABILITY DECREASES DIURNALLY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE...LEAVING QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT.

LAFLIN

.LONG TERM:  (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER
THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S EARLY EACH
AFTERNOON...AND RELATIVELY HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP HOLD
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. THIS PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BREAK UNTIL MONDAY WHEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH SENDS A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW THIS
FEATURE...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN COOLER WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

LAFLIN

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

STILL LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG/BR,
PRIMARILY IN THE 10-13Z PERIOD REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 4-5SM,
SO HAVE MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP FOR ALL TERMINALS EXPECT KSTL.
OTHERWISE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
DIURNAL CU DEVELOPING NEAR MIDDAY.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

GLASS

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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