Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 240836

336 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

Weak shortwave will round periphery of mid/upper ridge with main impact
being an increase in high-level cloudiness for portions of the area.
At the sfc...a weak frontal boundary will approach northwestern sections
of the CWFA by 0000 UTC Saturday. At this wet weather is
expected to accompany this frontal boundary. Temperatures will continue
on the upswing with highs back above average ranging from the upper
60s over south-central Illinois to low/mid 70s for portions of central...
east-central...and southeastern Missouri.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

(Tonight - Monday)

Aforementioned frontal boundary is progged to move through the rest of
the CWA overnight tonight with little fanfare other than a subtle wind
shift from the southwest to the west/northwest. With light winds and
clearing skies behind boundary and associated shortwave trough...did
lean a bit toward cooler NWP guidance with lows mainly in the 50s across
the area.

The Saturday through Monday period will be characterized by well-above
normal temperatures as upper-level ridging builds overhead and 850-hPa
thermal ridge advects toward the mid-Mississippi Valley. Have upped highs
quite a bit from previous forecast into the 70s/80s areawide or some
10-20 degrees above normal. Lows will also follow suit and get progressively
warmer. All in all...dry and unseasonably warm will be the rule with
record or near-record high and/or high low temperatures possible.

(Monday Night - Thursday)

A cold front will move through the area on Monday night with medium-ranged
guidance in very good agreement with fropa timing and associated rain
chances. This front should bring a fairly good chance of showers with
thunder also possible. Instability looks almost non-existent however due
to low-leevl ridging preventing Gulf moisture from streaming northward.
However...did leave mention of thunder in the grids as believe there
should be at least some meager instability...if nothing else due to the
very anomalous sfc temps. This front will also finally move out the
unseasonably warm temperatures and usher in daytime highs and nighttime
lows much closer to seasonal norms for late October. Highs are expected
to be back in the 60s with lows in the 40s Tuesday through Thursday along
with dry weather conditions.



.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

A band of clouds around 3000-5000 feet was moving southeastward
through the taf sites this evening. Behind it partial clearing was
leading to the development of patchy stratus and fog.  Additional
development of stratus clouds and fog can be expected late
tonight with the models depicting plenty of boundary layer
moisture. These low level clouds and fog will dissipate by late
Friday morning. A swly surface wind can be expected late tonight
and Friday.

Specifics for KSTL: Stratus clouds and fog will develop late
tonight with MVFR conditions. These low level, MVFR clouds and fog will
dissipate by late Friday morning. Light sly surface wind will veer
around to a swly direction late tonight, then back around to a
sly direction again late Friday afternoon.



Saint Louis     73  59  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          68  54  75  50 /   5   0   0   0
Columbia        73  56  79  58 /   5   0   0   0
Jefferson City  74  56  80  55 /   5   0   0   0
Salem           69  53  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Farmington      72  54  80  53 /   0   0   0   0




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