Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 212040
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
240 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 240 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

Cold front to exit forecast area late this afternoon with surface
ridge building in and gusty winds diminishing by 03z Wednesday.
Decent CAA behind front, so will see falling temps late this
afternoon as well as clearing skies. By Wednesday morning, it will
be quite chilly with lows will be in the upper teens to mid 20s.

Despite weak upper level shortwave undercutting surface ridge, skies
will remain mostly sunny with highs only in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Byrd

.LONG TERM...  (Wednesday Night through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

A dry weather pattern will prevail across the region through the
forecast period with temperature swings as a number of dry fronts
pass through the area.

Models are in good agreement thru the period. While there are some
differences late in the forecast period, those differences have a
minimal impact on the CWA attm. An upper level ridge remains
anchored in place just off the southeastern U.S. coast thru most of
the forecast period. This ridge helps to keep the CWA under NW flow,
hence the numerous fronts that are expected to push thru the area.

With swly flow ahead of an approaching front on Fri, have trended
twd the warmer guidance. Given the current timing of the sfc ridge
Sat night into Sun morning, have trended cooler with light winds and
a clear sky expected. Will need to continue to monitor any timing
changes of fropa and sfc ridge as these will have a large impact on
temps for any given day or night.

Mdls are hinting at a chance for precip next Tues night. Have kept
PoPs low for now however as expect the timing of this front to speed
up slightly and any precip associated with the front to develop
south/southeast of the CWA.


Tilly

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CST Tue Nov 21 2017

As cold front moves through winds to veer to the northwest to
north and become gusty. Winds will then diminish after 02z
Wednesday. Otherwise, mid and high clouds associated with front to
scatter out by 03z Wednesday.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
As cold front moves through winds to veer to the northwest to
north and become gusty. Winds will then diminish after 03z
Wednesday. Otherwise, mid and high clouds associated with front to
scatter out by 03z Wednesday as well.

Byrd

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Saint Louis     26  42  31  53 /   0   0   0   0
Quincy          20  39  29  49 /   0   0   0   0
Columbia        20  42  29  54 /   0   0   0   0
Jefferson City  21  43  30  55 /   0   0   0   0
Salem           25  41  28  49 /   5   0   0   0
Farmington      25  43  27  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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