Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 290750
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
250 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

.SHORT TERM: (This Weekend)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

A few showers dot the radar scope locally, but have my eyes on a
cluster of convection increasing in coverage across eastern KS/OK
early this morning. This activity is moving east at 20KT and is on
schedule to arrive in central MO later this morning between 10 AM
and NOON and eastern MO/western IL between NOON and 3 PM. Additional
storms will likely form this afternoon areawide as the atmosphere
destabilizes. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, but
just like yesterday a few stronger storms could produce some local
wind gusts and/or small hail. Temperatures will range from the 70s
in central Missouri to the 80s across eastern MO and IL.

Meanwhile, a cold front will begin approching the area from the
northwest this evening which will shift the focus for convection to
our northern CWA.  The front will move southeast across the CWA
tonight and Saturday, reaching St. Lous around 18Z. The best chances
of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front with a
clearing trend from northwest to southeast Saturday afternoon and
evening. Temperatures on Saturday will depend on convective trends
and frontal position, but generally think upper 60s northwest to 80s
southeast.

Sunday appears to be dry now as the front pushes south and a ridge
of high pressure builds across the region. It will be a cooler day
with highs struggling to reach 70 degrees.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri May 29 2015

A cutoff low is expected to develop across the lower Mississippi
River Valley underneath a bulding ridge of high pressure aloft.
Appears the cutoff will stay far enough south that PoPs will be
limited and temperatures should increase through the period back
into the middle 80s. Next trof of low pressure approaches on
Thursday with an increased chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the western CWA.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Thu May 28 2015

Short wave continue to lift across the area, still kickig up some
showers in central MO. HRRR is high on this with high MOS pops as
well so have put a vcsh for COU and UIN for some of the overnight
hours. Next weaker wave will likely kick off more tsra Friday
afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL: Skeptical about all the precip the HRRR is
producing before the short wave exits east central mo. Have thus
left short term dry. Scattered tsra for Friday afternoon with more
coverage to the north of STL. Next best shot of precipitation will
be late in the period as the cold front begins moving into
northern mo.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX





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