Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 040000

700 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2015

Clouds have been progressing westward today across the CWA as
low- mid level moisture continues to wrap around upper low over
southeastern CONUS. Radar and surface observations has picked up
isolated light showers/drizzle that is being generated under the
axis of the upper trough. Rest of the CWA will eventually turn
cloudy tonight, and expect isolated showers or drizzle tonight as
the axis of the trough continues to sit over us. There won`t be
much drop in temperatures tonight from current readings where
there are clouds with the winds staying up tonight.


.LONG TERM:  (Sunday through Next Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2015

(Sunday through Tuesday)

Clouds and the isolated rain/drizzle will continue into Sunday
morning before the models show the moisture becoming increasingly
shallow during the afternoon, particularly over the southeastern
part of the CWA.  As the upper low moves east and off the
southeastern U.S. Sunday night and Monday, the GFS and NAM are in
good agreement that this will allow a surface high to drop down into
the Midwest. Expect dry weather through this period as a result of
this with temperatures warming back up into the 70s as the clouds
move out of the area and 850mb temperatures climb back above +10C.

(Wednesday through Saturday)

An upper low will move from the southwestern CONUS into the southern
high Plains by the end of next week at the same time a shortwave
trough drops southeastward out of Canada. While Wednesday still
looks dry, will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast Thursday and Friday associated with this trough and
attendant frontal passage. Will also keep a chance of showers in
the forecast on Saturday as both the GFS and ECMWF show some
variation of a second trough moving across the area which could
bring additional showers to the area. Temperatures during this
period will mainly be in the 70s given the expected clouds and
scattered showers and 850mb temperatures in the 10-15C range.



.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 631 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2015

Nely winds are expected to continue to diminish overnight and
remain nely. VFR cloud deck is expected to slowly move wwd with
MVFR cigs reaching UIN shortly before sunrise and COU after
sunrise. These cigs shud lift during the day, but remain BKN thru
the afternoon.

Specifics for KSTL/KSUS/KCPS: Nely to nnely winds will remain,
but diminish overnight. Expect cigs to gradually lower tonight
and gradually lift Sun late morning and into the afternoon. There
is some indication that cigs will drop into the IFR range late
tonight, but with low confidence in this, will keep in the low
MVFR range for now.





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