Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 141750
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
1250 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Thunderstorms will continue to move across the area through mid morning,
  mainly along and north of I-70. A few of these storms over
  central and northeast Missouri into west central Missouri could
  produce large hail and damaging winds.

-Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
 and evening (60 to 90 percent chance) over much of the area. The
 strongest of these storms will have the potential to produce hail
 larger than golfballs, damaging winds, and possible tornadoes.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The latest surface analysis is showing a surface low just west of
Kansas City with a warm front extending east-northeastward across
northern Missouri into central Illinois.  A cold front extended
southwest into Oklahoma.   Latest regional radar is showing a train
of thunderstorms moving across northern Missouri with an additional
line of thunderstorms moving northeast out of Kansas into southwest
Missouri.  The latest runs of the CAMS including the HRRR are
showing the first line moving quickly across the CWA before sunrise,
while the second line will move across the central CWA between 11-
15Z posing an additional threat for wind and hail.  All of this
convection will likely push a outflow boundary into the southern
part of the CWA this morning, which may push a bit back to the north
by this afternoon in response to the strong southwesterly low level
flow.  Do still expect thunderstorm development along the this
boundary by mid afternoon as RAP/NAM are showing MLCAPEs near 2000
J/kg under a weakening cap underneath a right entrance region of a
upper level jet streak.  The convective mode looks thunderstorms
will likely start out as supercells which quickly become severe
capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and possible
tornadoes.  There will likely then be a quick transition to mixed
modes by late afternoon and evening as the shear vector becomes
aligned with the boundary. The HRRR is showing convection becoming
more numerous from around the metro and south and east before
shifting into the southern and eastern parts of the CWA overnight.

Another warm day is expected, though temperatures may be tempered
early today by the clouds and thunderstorms before there is some
recovery early this afternoon.  Temperatures will start to drop late
tonight behind the front with highs 15-20 degrees cooler tomorrow.

Britt
&&

.LONG TERM...  (Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 414 AM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Looks like a dry weekend, but a secondary front will make Sunday
cooler than Saturday.  Both Sunday night and Monday night look like
they will have lows in the 20s over much of the area.  Temperatures
will warm back above normal by the middle next week with the next
chance of rain holding off until Wednesday night and Thursday.

Britt
&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Atmosphere in process of recovering from early morning activity
with storms expected to develop by 21z, especially for TAF sites
along I-70 corridor. Added tempo groups for this area between 21z
Thursday and 01z Friday with MVFR ceilings and visibilities.
Otherwise, rain will taper off as cold front moves through. It
will move through KUIN by 19z, KCOU/KJEF by 21z, and St. Louis
metro area by 03z Friday. In the meantime, expect gusty south
winds which will veer to the west then north with cold frontal
passage. Ceilings will lower to MVFR on back side of cold front
eventually lifting and scattering out by 11z Friday at KUIN, by
15z-16z at KCOU/KJEF, and by 17z Friday in the St. Louis metro
area.

Byrd
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$
WFO LSX


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