Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 051548
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1048 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL BE WITH US THIS MORNING...ENHANCED IN THE ST.
LOUIS AREA BY THE INCREASED PARTICULATE MATTER FROM LAST EVENINGS
INDEPENDENCE DAY CELEBRATIONS. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR DAY ON TAP TO END THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY AS A
SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED
TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY EVENING WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY INCREASING HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLY WARM ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S. OVERCAST
CONDITIONS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. HAVE SOME CONCERN OF MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TOTALS
EXCEEDING TWO INCHES ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA...WHICH
COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL OR PROLONG FLOODING.

THE ECWMF LINGERS THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF STORMS...WHILE THE GFS LIFTS THE
FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS INTO THE
WEEKEND UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDWEST.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FORM THE GREAT
LAKES TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AS EVERYTHING CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO MONDAY.
IFR/MVFR STRATUS MOVED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MO OVERNIGHT WITH THE
WEAK SOUTH WIND. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS IT MAY MAKE IT
INTO COU. OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR FORECAST WITH SOME MORINING FOG AND
HAZE.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: CONTINUED MOSTLY VFR WITH SOME MORNING FOG AND
HAZE ONCE AGAIN AS THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WILL LIKELY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGHT TO STOP IN. NAM AND GFS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT GIVEN THIS IS THE LAST 6 HOURS
OF THE PERIOD, AND A VICINITY WOULD BE ALL THIS IS NEEDED, WILL
LEAVE DRY.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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