Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 230832
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
332 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

Cold front to continue tracking south through forecast area this
morning, before exiting region early this afternoon. Despite decent
cap over area, could still see some isolated/scattered storms
develop as front moves through. Highest pops will be this morning
for southern half of cwa, then taper off rather quickly after 18z.
As for highs today, will range from the low 80s far north to around
90 far south. Drier/cooler air is lagging behind boundary, so with
dewpts still in the 70s could see heat indicies approaching 95 early
this afternoon.

Byrd

.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Wed Jul 23 2014

By tonight, surface ridge begins to build in and bring in drier and
cooler weather for the last half of the work week. Lows tonight will
be in the mid 50s to near 60. Highs on Thursday will be in the upper
70s to low 80s.

Surface ridge to move off to the east by Friday with a warm front
developing across region with elevated convection possible for
northern portions of forecast area late Thursday night through
Friday night. Then as main cold front moves into region on Saturday,
will see additional rounds of storms through Sunday before system
exits region Sunday night. Temperatures to moderate through the
weekend once again. Models are indicating 850 temps between 24C and
26C on Saturday and if they mix down, could see highs in the upper
90s for portions of the area. For now raised highs a few degrees for
Saturday, into the upper 80s to mid 90s.

Beyond the weekend, surface ridge builds in once again for early
next week with highs cooling off into the upper 70s to mid 80s for
Monday and Tuesday.

Byrd
&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

TSTMs have struggled to maintain vs a strong cap this evening.
don`t expect much to change overnight with isld activity
continuing thru the night. Removed prevailing thunder group
completely from KCOU and KUIN and changed to VCTS at STL metro
sites at a later time. Band of CIGS near 2.5kft has dvlpd just
behind the front...as indicated by the models...across nthrn MO
and on into cntrl/nthrn IL. Expect this to follow the front south
overnight and possibly expand some. MVFR fog is also possible
towards mrng with a moist bndry lyr in place. Otherwise...expect
diurnal cu and N/NNE winds aob 12kts.

Specifics for KSTL:

Coverage for TSTMs has been minimal this evng as the convection
struggles to survive against a strong cap...so have a VCTS group
to cover the threat. A band of post frontal high end MVFR CIGs
has dvlpd across nthrn IL and cntrl IL. This should push S in
concert with the front. Otherwise...expect diurnal cu and a N/NNE
wind aob 12kts.

2%
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$
WFO LSX





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