Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 300815
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
315 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

"COLD" FRONT IS NOW ALMOST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CWFA.  TOUGH TO
REALLY PICK IT OUT, BUT EVEN FARMINGTON IS REPORTING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AT THIS HOUR.  IT MIGHT BE HUNG UP OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IRON AND REYNOLDS THOUGH.  REGARDLESS, WE`RE AT PEAK
HEATING RIGHT NOW, AND WE CAN`T SEEM TO CRACK 105 DEGREES ON THE
HEAT INDEX, SO WILL BE DROPPING THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AT 400
PM.  WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE FRONT, BUT IN
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS, BUT A WEAK CAP HAS
DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA ACCORDING TO RAP SOUNDINGS SO I DON`T EXPECT
ANY CONVECTION FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING HOURS EXCEPT
POTENTIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  ANY STORMS THAT DO AFFECT
OUR SOUTHERN CWFA SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA OR DISSIPATED BY EARLY
EVENING.  SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.  STUCK CLOSE TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WHICH ARE ACTUALLY A LITTLE WARMER THAN OPERATIONAL MET/MAV.  WANTED
TO BE A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE ON THE "COOL DOWN" SINCE IT IS JULY
AFTER ALL, AND THIS ISN`T EXACTLY AN ARCTIC FRONT.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL ALREADY BE S OF
THE AREA BY MID-DAY FRI. THIS WILL RETURN THE REGION TO SWLY FLOW
BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FRI
OVER TEMPS FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH NWLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT. THEREFORE,
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FNT.
HOWEVER, WITH WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FNT, A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH THE
NEXT CDFNT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

WHILE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT, DIFFERENCES
GREATLY INCREASE IN THE EXTD. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS LOWER DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A
COMPROMISE AMONG MDL GUIDANCE.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS M0VED THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
IN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCIKES TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: HIGH PRESSURE MOVING WITH DRIER AIR. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     90  69  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
QUINCY          88  65  89  64 /   0   0  20  20
COLUMBIA        89  66  90  66 /   5   0  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  90  66  91  67 /   5   0  10  20
SALEM           88  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
FARMINGTON      87  63  89  67 /   5   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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