Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 281706

1106 AM CST SAT NOV 28 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 323 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Rain has diminished early this morning, but will see it increase in
coverage once again, mainly for areas along and south of a
Steelville MO to Salem IL line as next upper level shortwave slides
east northeast along frontal boundary that is stalled just south of
forecast area. With the heaviest rainfall amounts over our far
southern 3 counties will trim back the flood watch to only Reynolds,
Iron and Madison in MO that will remain in effect until 18z today.
This area could see up to an additional inch of rainfall today. Will
see lesser amounts the further north you go. Temperatures early this
morning will flirt with the freezing mark in northeast Missouri, but
expect dry conditions. As for high temperatures, with cloudy
conditions and north winds, highs will only be in the upper 30s to
mid 40s today.


.LONG TERM:  (Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 323 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Rain chances will lessen once again tonight through Sunday before
upper level low and shortwave lifts northeastward towards forecast
area Sunday night. With lows tonight and Sunday night near
freezing in the north, could briefly see some light freezing rain
in the far north during the hours right around sunrise, but do not
expect any ice accumulation. Upper level system will help to
develop surface low over west central Missouri on Monday,
strengthening and lifting northeast into Iowa by Monday night, so
will see another round of rain, with best chances along and north
of I70. The QPF expected with this round will be around a quarter
of an inch or less. Rain to taper off by Tuesday.

Currently extended models are indicating a dry period from Tuesday
through next Friday as upper level ridging builds in. Near normal
temperatures expected through midweek, before warming up a bit above
normal for the last half of the work week.



.AVIATION:  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1031 AM CST Sat Nov 28 2015

Surface ridge centered over northwest IA will move eastward.
Nearly stationary front extends from southeastern AR northeast
into southern OH. Will see low level cloud ceilings rise this
afternoon, especially in UIN. UIN should improve into the VFR
catagory this afternoon as drier air filters in from the north.
The taf sites further south should see improvement into the MVFR
catagory, at least to just above 1000 feet. Will keep MVFR cigs
tonight and Sunday morning at COU and the St Louis metro area.
The GFS MOS looks too optimistic in its ceiling height forecast
tonight and Sunday morning. Any rain should remain south of the
taf sites this afternoon. Could not rule out patchy drizzle
tonight, but will leave the tafs dry for now. The n-nely surface
wind will become more due nely Sunday morning.

Specifics for KSTL: The 800 foot ceiling should rise to near
1500 feet by late afternoon. The ceiling may lower slightly again
late tonight, but will likely remain just above 1000 feet. May
finally see improvement into the VFR catagory Sunday afternoon.
Most of the rain should remain south of STL, although could not
rule out a few sprinkles or a period of drizzle.





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